Big Hype Prospects: Brennan, Cavalli, Malloy, O’Hoppe, Capel
This week on Big Hype Prospects, I play it fast and loose with “big hype” in order to focus on some Spring Training battles.
Five BHPs In The News
Will Brennan, 25, OF, CLE (MLB)
(AAA) 433 PA, 9 HR, 15 SB, .316/.367/.471
A favorite of mine and my main contact with Baseball America, Brennan is in a roster battle with Oscar Gonzalez and Myles Straw this spring. Between average discipline and a strong feel for contact, he’s the Guardians latest candidate to walk more than he strikes out. The left-handed hitter looks like a future doubles machine even if his home run output is a tad underwhelming. His defense is solid in the corners and passable in center. With Straw on the roster and a fly ball-oriented pitching staff, he’s not ideal for center field. The lack of home run potential is an odd look in an outfield corner, yet his feel for hard contact implies a three- or four-win player in a similar mold to teammate Steven Kwan. After Gonzalez shatter expectations last season, it will be interesting to see how the Guardians distribute playing time.
Cade Cavalli, 24, SP, WSH (MLB)
(AAA) 97 IP, 9.65 K/9, 3.62 BB/9, 3.71 ERA
Cavalli made his debut last fall and struggled in his only appearance. He flashed his impressive repertoire of four above average offerings, but his below average command was also on display. This is a profile that tends to experience success in the Majors after a sometimes lengthy adjustment period. The Nationals will be looking to build him up after throwing only 101.1 total innings last season. He’s expected to break camp with the club. Don’t be surprised if they take opportunities to give him extra rest or restrict his innings per start. The plan should look similar to the usage of Josiah Gray last season. He threw 148.2 innings across 28 starts. As a stuff-over-command starter, he has some of the same markers as Dylan Cease.
Justyn-Henry Malloy, 23, 3B, DET (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 591 PA, 17 HR, 5 SB, .289/.408/.454
After lighting up three levels in 2022, the Braves included Malloy in the Joe Jimenez trade. Atlanta’s recent track record with prospect trades is rather incredible. For the most part, they’ve kept the winners and dealt away the laggards. Malloy’s inclusion in a trade for a reliever with a checkered past could be viewed as a negative mark. I polled two scouting contacts and received different takes. One doesn’t believe Malloy impacts the ball enough to be a high-probability regular. The other is more optimistic about the plate discipline carrying the profile. Malloy walked in 16.4 percent of plate appearances last season while keeping his swinging strike rate below 10 percent. He has an extreme pulled contact approach with a roughly balanced 20/40/40 blend of liners/grounders/flies. Malloy resembles a Max Muncy starter kit – just keep in mind Muncy finally broke out in his age 27 season. There’s no guarantee Malloy finds the barreled and hard contact rates that drive Muncy’s success. On the other hand, he has a decent shot to play his way onto the roster later this season.
Logan O’Hoppe, 23, C, LAA (MLB)
(AA) 447 PA, 26 HR, 7 SB, .283/.416/.544
Acquired in the Brandon Marsh trade, O’Hoppe is competing with Max Stassi and out-of-options Matt Thaiss for the Angels catching job. Aside from a brief 16 plate appearance debut, O’Hoppe spent all of last season in Double-A. This spring, he has neither thrived nor embarrassed himself to this point. His 2022 breakout seemed predicated on a surge of plate discipline. That he further improved upon joining the Angels affiliate, including a .306/.473/.673 line in 131 plate appearances, is a positive sign. Assuming the club avoids injury, it could be tempting to give O’Hoppe further seasoning in Triple-A. There seemingly isn’t room for all three of Stassi, Thaiss, and O’Hoppe on the roster. While he’s their catcher of the future, clinging to Thaiss in the short-term makes some sense.
Conner Capel, 25, OF, OAK (MLB)
(AAA) 409 PA, 20 HR, 21 SB, .264/.364/.422
A favorite of mine to earn an extended look at some point this season, Capel has already outlasted JJ Bleday this spring. Capel is performing well following a successful 2022 split between St. Louis and Oakland. There’s every chance Capel is the best outfielder in camp at this moment. He’s been inconsistent throughout his minor league assent, at times showing discipline or over-aggression, a feel for contact or a hefty whiff rate, and a power- or speed-based profile. Given his long and winding journey, it’s hard to pin down exactly who he’ll become in the future. That he’s experimented with so many modes of play suggests he’s highly adaptable, a trait which does well to predict Major League success. While other franchises would view Capel as a capable backup, the Athletics should have starting opportunities available throughout the season.
Three More
Ji-Hwan Bae, PIT (23): In the mix for the Pirates starting second base job, Bae is off to a slow start this spring. So too is his competition. When Bae is on, he shows an above average eye with feel for contact. While he doesn’t produce much power, he should reach base enough to disrupt pitchers with his speed.
Jo Adell, LAA (23): Adell is expected to begin the season in Triple-A in deference to the Angels outfield veterans. That will trigger his final minor league option. It’s his last chance for regular playing time before playing waiver roulette. Adell can still put a charge in the ball, but it does seem like he would benefit from joining a non-contender willing to set him loose without restriction. His spring stats to date don’t suggest he’ll upset Taylor Ward or Hunter Renfroe for playing time.
Yainer Diaz, HOU (24): An aggressive free-swinger with thump, Diaz draws half-hearted comps to Salvador Perez. In the minors, he’s shown a capacity for making high-quality contact despite an expansive approach. He appears to be susceptible to breaking balls. Diaz is making a bid to join the Astros as their backup catcher – one who could offer more thump than defense-first Martin Maldonado.
Looking Through The Guardians’ Outfield Possibilities
The Guardians surprised most onlookers by sprinting to an AL Central title last season, pulling away from the Twins and White Sox with an excellent September. Cleveland quickly dispatched the Rays in the Wild Card series before losing a closely contested Division Series against the Yankees.
There were myriad reasons for the Guardians’ success. Recurring themes were plus defense around the diamond and a general willingness to trust young position players to run with their opportunities. That was also the case in the outfield, a unit that was average overall but had a couple standout players.
Cleveland seems mostly content running things back with the same group. The Guardians have added at catcher and first base, bringing in Mike Zunino and Josh Bell via free agency. They’ve not gone outside the organization for an outfielder to this point. One could argue for adding a veteran bat considering most of the in-house candidates have limited MLB track records, and perhaps Cleveland eventually adds a lower-cost depth type like Chad Pinder or Robbie Grossman. There’s probably not an impact player coming, though, so it’s worth looking through the numerous in-house options who could vie for playing time on the Progressive Field grass.
Kwan is the most established of the Cleveland outfielders after a stellar rookie season. He hadn’t been a top-tier prospect early in his professional career but continued excellence as a minor leaguer garnered him a spot on FanGraphs’ top 100 going into last season. Kwan even exceeded those expectations, hitting .298/.373/.400 with more walks than strikeouts over his first 638 MLB plate appearances. He paired that with elite defensive marks in left field, earning a Gold Glove and a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year balloting in the process. Kwan has below-average power but does everything else so well he looks like a perfect top-of-the-lineup option for manager Terry Francona. So long as he’s healthy, the Oregon State product is the Guardians left fielder.
Straw seems likely to get another crack in center field, at least initially. Acquired from the Astros at the 2021 trade deadline, Straw stepped in as Cleveland’s primary center fielder from there forward. He’s an elite defender and baserunner and looked to have taken a step forward offensively that season, combining for a .271/.349/.348 slash between the two teams. The Guardians rewarded him last spring with a $25MM contract extension that runs at least through the 2026 campaign.
The 28-year-old’s first full season in Cleveland was mixed. He continued to play excellent defense, with Statcast crediting him for 13 outs above average for his work in center field. Like Kwan, Straw secured his first Gold Glove. The offensive output plummeted though. He hit only .221/.273/.291 across 596 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, only Jonathan Schoop and Geraldo Perdomo were less effective hitters (minimum 500 PA’s).
Straw posted some of the league’s worst batted ball metrics and didn’t connect on a single home run. His defense and baserunning means he doesn’t need to hit much to be a worthwhile everyday player, but the Cleveland front office is surely hoping for a little more output at the plate. Straw doesn’t seem in imminent danger of losing his job, but posting another sub-.600 OPS through the All-Star Break could lead the front office to consider deadline possibilities to add a little more offensive firepower in center field.
Gonzalez, who turns 25 today, was yet another success story in a loaded Cleveland rookie class. The right-handed hitter posted a .282/.308/.506 line through 41 games at Triple-A Columbus to earn his first MLB call in late May. He stuck in the majors from then on and immediately hit the ground running. Over 382 trips to the plate, Gonzalez hit .296/.327/.461 with 11 home runs and 27 doubles. He had a couple heroic moments in the playoffs as well, connecting on the walk-off home run to eliminate Tampa Bay and a game-winning two-run single against the Yankees. Those clutch hits overshadowed a mediocre .226/.250/.323 overall batting line in 32 postseason plate appearances.
It was a strong enough season to put himself on the map as a potential long-term piece in the Cleveland outfield, and he’s the likeliest player to open the year in right. Yet there’s a fair bit less certainty in Gonzalez sustaining his excellent rookie form than there’ll be in Kwan’s case. Gonzalez has never been a favorite of most prospect evaluators thanks to questions about his aggressive approach and below-average corner outfield defense. Cleveland left him unprotected in advance of the Rule 5 draft as recently as the 2021-22 offseason as a result.
Gonzalez’s great year quiets those concerns to some extent, but they’re not completely answered. He swung at nearly half the pitches outside the strike zone he saw as a rookie, placing him near the top of the league in that regard. His 3.9% walk percentage was among the lowest in the game. Perhaps Gonzalez has special enough hand-eye coordination and power that it won’t matter. He’ll need to prove it in a second extended run against MLB arms.
If Kwan, Straw and Gonzalez is Cleveland’s Opening Day outfield, Brennan seems the player most likely to break into the mix off the bench. The left-handed hitter fits the Guardians’ mold of high-contact bats, having never struck out at even a 17% clip at any minor league stop. He went down on strikes just 12.2% of the time at Triple-A last season, hitting .316/.367/.471 with nine home runs and 15 steals across 433 plate appearances. He earned a late-season MLB look and played well in his first 11 games.
Baseball America ranked Brennan the #10 prospect in a deep Cleveland farm system this offseason. The outlet praises his contact skills, athleticism and arm strength but questions his power potential. Brennan can play center field but BA suggests he’s probably a stronger defensive fit in the corner outfield. It’s easy to point to some similarities between him and Kwan, although the latter’s minor league track record was a little better. Brennan’s likely a better hitter than Straw right now and could be a candidate to take increased center field reps if Straw continues to struggle offensively — particularly since Straw can come off the bench later in games when the Guardians are looking for their best defensive unit to protect a lead.
A bat-first utility option, Palacios also made his MLB debut in 2022. He didn’t break in as well as most of the other Cleveland rookies, hitting .232/.293/.286 without a longball in his first 123 trips to the dish. It wasn’t a great first look but Palacios had a quality .279/.371/.458 line with better than average strikeout and walk marks through 45 games at Triple-A. He can play the corner outfield spots and offer some depth on the right side of the infield.
Valera, 22, is more likely a midseason possibility than a candidate to break camp. He’s on the 40-man roster but only has 42 games of Triple-A experience. After a strong Double-A showing, he hit .221/.324/.448 with nine homers in 179 plate appearances at the top minor league level, walking at a quality 12.3% clip against a 25.1% strikeout rate. Valera is the #4 prospect in the organization at BA and regarded as a potential high-OBP corner outfielder at his peak; whether he’ll be ready to contribute to a win-now Cleveland club at any point in 2023 depends on how well he shows in his first full season at Triple-A.
A former first-round draftee, Benson is a high-risk upside play at the back of the 40-man roster. His minor league track record has been wildly inconsistent. He’s coming off a great 2022 showing in Triple-A, where he mashed at a .278/.426/.522 clip with 17 homers and 16 steals through 401 plate appearances. He earned a brief MLB look but sputtered to a .168/.252/.200 line over 28 games. The left-handed hitter has always intrigued with massive power potential in a 6’5″ frame and a very discerning eye at the plate. That’s been paired with huge strikeout tallies at times throughout his minor league career, although he only fanned in a roughly average 22.7% of his trips in Columbus last year.
That’s seven players, all of whom are on the 40-man roster and controllable for a long while. Cleveland’s particularly deep in left-handed options (only Straw and Gonzalez hit from the right side). There was enough depth in that regard the Guardians felt comfortable sending Nolan Jones — another lefty bat who profiled as a corner outfielder with José Ramírez entrenched at third base in Cleveland — to Colorado for infield prospect Juan Brito.
While there’s an abundance of interesting controllable outfield options in Cleveland, none has a lengthy track record of big league productivity. Kwan looks like the safest bet after his fantastic rookie year. Everyone else comes with question marks of varying degrees.
Straw and Gonzalez seem likely to get the first crack at jobs alongside Kwan again, though they’ll have some intriguing young players on hand as contingency plans. Supplementing the group with a veteran righty bat could be a nice luxury addition for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and his staff before the season gets underway. Any pickup would figure to be a low-cost complement to Cleveland’s various in-house young players, who’ll again be entrusted with significant roles as they look to repeat as division champs.
Guardians Designate Ernie Clement, Select Will Brennan
The Guardians announced a series of roster moves prior to today’s game, recalling infielder Gabriel Arias and selecting outfielder Will Brennan. In corresponding moves, outfielder Richie Palacios was optioned while infielder Ernie Clement was designated for assignment.
Clement, 26, was first added to Cleveland’s 40-man roster in November of 2020, prior to that year’s Rule 5 draft. Since that time, he’s bounced between the majors and the minors, not hitting much in either case. In 104 MLB games between last year and this year, he has a career batting line of .214/.273/.274. That production amounts to a wRC+ of 55, or 45% below league average. In 21 games in Triple-A this year, it hasn’t been much better, with Clement hitting .238/.291/.428, wRC+ of 89.
Clement’s best tool is arguably his ability to avoid punchouts. He’s only gone down on strikes in 14.9% of his plate appearances in the big leagues this year, well below the 22.3% league average. That hasn’t translated into strong results just yet, but that could give him a floor to build on as he looks to create more meaningful contact. He also brings defensive versatility to the table, having played all four infield positions, as well as left field and even mop-up duty on the mound. He can still be optioned for the remainder of this year and one more season after this, meaning a team interested in his skills could grab him off waivers and stash him in the minors. Since the trade deadline has passed, the Guardians will have no choice but to put him on outright or release waivers in the coming days.
Taking his spot on the 40-man roster is the 24-year-old Brennan. He was an eighth-round selection of Cleveland in 2019 and has never really been a top prospect, but just keeps hitting everywhere he goes. This year, he’s split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .315/.373/.482 for a wRC+ of 128. He’s also struck out in just 11.6% of his plate appearances. Based on his strong season, he jumped onto Baseball America’s list of top Cleveland farmhands for the first time at their midseason update, currently sitting in the #17 spot. The Guards will give him a shot to see if his incredible bat-to-ball skills can play at the major league level. He’ll jump into an outfield mix next to Myles Straw, Oscar Gonzalez, Steven Kwan and Will Benson for the final playoff push and perhaps try to earn a spot on the postseason roster. The Guardians are currently atop the AL Central with a five-game lead over the White Sox and just two weeks remaining in the regular season.