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Padres, Phillies Could Revisit Linebrink Talks

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Ken Rosenthal was a guest on 610 WIP’s morning show and reiterated that Scott Linebrink was now probably available for a trade.  While Rosenthal said a few days ago that Kevin Towers would like to find the Padres center fielder of the future, this morning he said that the Pods are interested in a left fielder that can hit a bit.  In addition, he mentioned that the Phillies and Padres may revisit the Aaron Rowand/Linebrink talks of the early spring.

The Phillies outfield corps has several redundancies at this point.  Pat Burrell provides power in left, but Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino and Aaron Rowand are all light-hitting center fielders.  If the Padres are interested in a centerfielder for the future and would prefer to do it on the cheap, perhaps the Phillies are should be willing to part with Bourn or Victorino instead of Rowand.

At this point, with Matt Smith floundering, a big need for the Phillies is a left-handed reliever.  But still, Linebrink would look awfully nice in red pinstripes.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".

No Deal For Zambrano?

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Just saw Ken Rosenthal on TV, and he had his usual collection of inside information.

Rosenthal says that contract talks with the Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano are "about a week away from being tabled."  All along we’ve been hearing how he’d likely remain a Cub, even with the impending sale of the team.  Zambrano’s only had one good start in four tries this year; perhaps the Cubs want to see that ace again before committing.  It seems silly that such a huge contract could be affected by four starts, but you never know.  If Zambrano reaches the open market, the Cubs will likely be outbid.

Rosenthal also mentioned that instead of extending setup man Scott Linebrink’s contract, he might become their best trading chip.  They could look to upgrade at third base or left field, or even try to acquire their center fielder of the future.  Most folks feel that Kevin Towers would find a way to replace him on the cheap.

UPDATE: There is now an accompanying article for these rumors.

Cameron To Reach Free Agency

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For a while, it had seemed that the Padres would be able to reach a three-year agreement with 34 year-old center fielder Mike Cameron.  I had expected the years to be the sticking point, and the Padres seemed open to three.  However, Ken Rosenthal tells us that contract talks have broken off between the two parties and Cameron is very likely to explore the open market.

Rosenthal likes the Braves as a possibility in 2008, as Cameron lives outside of Atlanta.  The star class of free agent center fielders includes Andruw Jones, Ichiro Suzuki, and Torii Hunter.  None of the three are expected to stay with their respective teams, meaning the Braves, Mariners, and Twins could explore the second tier.  That seems to include Cameron, Eric Byrnes, Corey Patterson, Milton Bradley, and Aaron Rowand.

Cameron is hitting just .164/.257/.197 in 61 ABs on the young season.  He could be distracted by the contract situation, or it could just be a coincidental rough patch.

Ringolsby On Lidge, Otsuka, And More

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Esteemed Denver Post writer Tracy Ringolsby drops a few trade rumors on us in this morning’s column.

  • Ringolsby writes that the Padres have some rainy-day money saved up to be used specifically for one of three players, if they are available and the team is contending.  The players are future free agents Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter.  I’m not sure how Mike Cameron would feel about that, and whether it would affect his contract negotiations.  Hopefully he wouldn’t mind moving to a corner.
  • Should Eric Gagne prove himself healthy and reliable (a long shot), the Red Sox, Indians, and Marlins have interest in acquiring Akinori Otsuka.  In my opinion the Phillies might want in on that too.  The Mets and Diamondbacks have expressed interest in the past.  I’m a bit skeptical that the Marlins would take on another $3MM reliever after the Jorge Julio debacle.
  • The same three teams Ringolsby mentioned for Otsuka would have interest in Brad Lidge if available.  Also, some major connections between Lidge and the Rockies are described.  And Buster Olney mentions the Blue Jays as another possibility in his blog today. 
  • Ringolsby quotes Joe Nathan as saying his agents have had positive initial talks with the Twins.  Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI.com had a source indicating that talks with Nathan had slowed.

Padres Sign Chris Young To Four-Year Deal

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Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Padres will announce a four-year contract for starter Chris Young tomorrow.  There’s also a club option for the fifth year.  Rosenthal also mentions that the club is working on a three-year deal for Mike Cameron; they had been reluctant to add the third year.

The dollars haven’t been revealed yet, but Young’s deal could be in the neighborhood of $10MM guaranteed with a $7-8MM option for 2011.  However, Young may have wanted more money than the Noah Lowry/Rich Harden/Matt Cain standard package.  He entered 2007 with 69 big league starts under his belt, more than any of the aforementioned three.  Interestingly, PECOTA doesn’t like Young.  It doesn’t see him ever reaching 200 innings in a season.

I don’t want to irritate Rangers fans so I won’t go on and on about how badly Kevin Towers ripped off Jon Daniels to acquire Young, Adrian Gonzalez, and Terrmel Sledge.  Let’s just say it was one of the most lopsided deals of the decade and leave it at that.

Pitchers like Cole Hamels, Rich Hill, and Scott Kazmir may be in line for similar deals if they post strong 2007 seasons.

UPDATE: Young himself denied Rosenthal’s report last night, yet the Padres have a press conference scheduled for this morning.

UPDATE 2: Despite yesterday’s denial from Young, the Padres made the deal official today.  The terms: four years, $14.5MM, with an $8.5MM option for the fifth year. 

Additionally, Mike Cameron’s agent expects a resolution soon according to MLB.com.

Ken Rosenthal’s Latest

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Ken Rosenthal has a new update up over at FOX Sports.  The trade rumor highlights:

  • Plenty of teams are interested in Brewers reliever Jose Capellan: the Giants, Rockies, Devil Rays, and Nationals.  I’m surprised that Capellan was deemed unworthy of the Brewers’ pen; he gave them 70 decent innings last year.  Rosenthal mentions that the Nats might convert Capellan back to a starter.  A fine idea, as that’s how Capellan came up with the Braves.  He just needs to get his curve and changeup tuned up.
  • The story on Mike Cameron remains the same: the Padres don’t want to go past two years.  A few days from now the team should know whether a compromise can be reached.  Maybe a middle-ground vesting option for 2010.  He’s a good athlete; he’s not going to age as poorly as some guys.  If he leaves, maybe the Pads would sign Aaron Rowand.  UPDATE: Just saw Mr. Rosenthal on television, and he mentioned the Braves as a mighty fine fit for Cameron if he hits the market.
  • Rosenthal seems to hint that the Cubs should still get a five-year, $80MMish deal done with Carlos Zambrano, perhaps within a few months.  At least, he’s urging them to close the deal despite the team being up for sale this summer.

2007 San Diego Padres

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Time for a Padres Team Outlook.  Notice the new sidebar section called MLBTR Features.  There you will always be able to find these outlooks as well as free agent info for next offseason.

Kevin Towers’s contract obligations:

C – Josh Bard – $1.05MM
C – Rob Bowen – $0.38MM
1B – Adrian Gonzalez – $0.3805MM
2B – Marcus Giles – $3.25MM + incentives
SS – Khalil Greene – $2.25MM + incentives
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff – $0.38MM
IF – Todd Walker – $3.95MM
IF – Russell Branyan – $1.25MM
IF – Geoff Blum – $0.9MM + incentives
LF – Terrmel Sledge – $0.38MM
CF – Mike Cameron – $7MM
RF – Brian Giles – $9MM
OF – Jose Cruz Jr. – $0.65MM

SP – Greg Maddux – $10MM
SP – Jake Peavy – $4.75MM
SP – David Wells – $3MM + incentives
SP – Chris Young – $0.6MM
SP – Clay Hensley – $0.392MM

RP – Trevor Hoffman – $6.5MM
RP – Scott Linebrink – $1.75MM
RP – Scott Strickland – $0.55MM
RP – Doug Brocail – $0.5MM + incentives
RP – Cla Meredith – $0.38MM
RP – Heath Bell – $0.38MM
RP – Mike Thompson – $0.38MM

I calculate a $60MM payroll, not including any incentives earned.  That’s down about $10MM from last year, so count on Towers making a big move midseason if needed.

Let’s first take a look at defense.  If Bard’s 17% caught stealing rate from last year carries over, he may be the worst in baseball at shutting down the running game.  Head to head fantasy baseball players, take note.  He’s not quite Piazza bad, but still. 

Kouzmanoff is not a glove man, nor are backup infielders Branyan and Walker.  Greene and Giles form an above average defensive middle infield combo, taking some pressure off Kouz.  The outfield defense should be excellent, led by Cameron.  Peavy and Young are the flyball pitchers on the staff while the rest get grounders.

How about the offense, ranked 13th of 16 NL teams last year?  They have a downgrade at catcher, upgrade at 2B, big upgrade at 3B, and a clear upgrade in left.  It seems sneaky, but this team has improved a lot on offense by importing Giles and Sledge while letting Dave Roberts go.  It’s tough to sustain a Roberts-type hitter from a power position if you’re not the White Sox.  They should move towards the middle in runs scored.

One more note – I really like what they’re doing with Sledge and Cruz in left.  That platoon could be league average or better for a million bucks, and if it’s not, they’ve got money in the coffers to compensate for a big-name addition like Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye should they become available.

I feel that the Padres have the best starting rotation in the league, beating out the Brewers.  The staff has very good control, especially if Maddux can teach Hensley some things and Young bounces back.  If healthy, top pitching prospect Cesar Carrillo could jump right in as the sixth man and post a 4.50 ERA from the start.

The bullpen is a clear strength as well; the crew should be at least top five and maintain an ERA under 4 again.

I’ve yet to give the other NL West teams an in-depth analysis, but the Padres have a well-balanced attack and quietly improved over the offseason.  This looks like a playoff team.

Need more Padres previews?  Geoff Young of Ducksnorts has done two – one at Hardball Times and another at CGBB.

Ducksnorts and More

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If you’re a Padres fan or just enjoy good blogging, bookmark Geoff Young’s Ducksnorts.  Plus, Geoff just finished a book examining the Padres in detail in all sorts of ways.  The book includes a foreword by Padres CEO Sandy Alderson.  Check out the Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual here.

Another blog to check out: I Remember Dome-Dogs, a new Astros blog.  Intelligent writing, worth a look.

I missed this when it came out: PECOTA predicts the standings.

Red Sox Scouting Turnbow?

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My apologies for the lack of posts today; I had an all-day fantasy draft.  Back to trade rumors: Adam McCalvy of MLB.com had several Brewers ones in today’s article.

To begin with, 26 year-old righty starter Ben Hendrickson cleared waivers and was sent to Triple A.  He was angry about it, perhaps because he had a 2.45 ERA in five appearances this spring.  Apparently the Nationals and Padres are interested, and both the Brewers and Hendrickson look forward to a trade.  According to Baseball America, Hendrickson has a plus curve and an 88-91 fastball.  He may be a Quad-A type player; PECOTA sees a 5.00 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 109 innings.

The Red Sox had a scout watching Derrick Turnbow on Friday, though Doug Melvin says he’s not shopping the reliever.  Maybe Sox pitching coach John Farrell can fix Turnbow’s walk problem, but it’s a long shot.  Turnbow has two years and $5.5MM left on his contract.  While that extension was ill-advised, it’s not nearly as bad as the Cubs giving Ryan Dempster three years and $15.5MM.  In both cases, fairly small samples of decent control were taken as permanent and rewarded.

McCalvy also mentioned a "lunchroom rumor" that had the Padres looking at Brady Clark. Melvin said he hasn’t heard from the club.  The Crew would love to shed Clark’s $3.8MM salary.      

Mike Cameron Hoping For Extension

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Mike Cameron is among the eight or nine viable free agent center fielder options after this season.  Rather than be a part of that surplus, Cameron informed the Padres recently that he’d like to start talking about a multiyear extension.  The 34 year-old makes $7MM this year, a bargain.

Our good friend PECOTA thinks Cameron will be worth about $9MM in 2008.  If Baseball Prospectus’s projection system were a GM, I think it might offer him around $16MM for 2008-09.  PECOTA sees him as a less injury-prone version of Reggie Sanders circa 2002.

It’s been three weeks since the sides spoke; Kevin Towers said that talks haven’t progressed.

 

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