Cameron To Reach Free Agency
For a while, it had seemed that the Padres would be able to reach a three-year agreement with 34 year-old center fielder Mike Cameron. I had expected the years to be the sticking point, and the Padres seemed open to three. However, Ken Rosenthal tells us that contract talks have broken off between the two parties and Cameron is very likely to explore the open market.
Rosenthal likes the Braves as a possibility in 2008, as Cameron lives outside of Atlanta. The star class of free agent center fielders includes Andruw Jones, Ichiro Suzuki, and Torii Hunter. None of the three are expected to stay with their respective teams, meaning the Braves, Mariners, and Twins could explore the second tier. That seems to include Cameron, Eric Byrnes, Corey Patterson, Milton Bradley, and Aaron Rowand.
Cameron is hitting just .164/.257/.197 in 61 ABs on the young season. He could be distracted by the contract situation, or it could just be a coincidental rough patch.
Ringolsby On Lidge, Otsuka, And More
Esteemed Denver Post writer Tracy Ringolsby drops a few trade rumors on us in this morning’s column.
- Ringolsby writes that the Padres have some rainy-day money saved up to be used specifically for one of three players, if they are available and the team is contending. The players are future free agents Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter. I’m not sure how Mike Cameron would feel about that, and whether it would affect his contract negotiations. Hopefully he wouldn’t mind moving to a corner.
- Should Eric Gagne prove himself healthy and reliable (a long shot), the Red Sox, Indians, and Marlins have interest in acquiring Akinori Otsuka. In my opinion the Phillies might want in on that too. The Mets and Diamondbacks have expressed interest in the past. I’m a bit skeptical that the Marlins would take on another $3MM reliever after the Jorge Julio debacle.
- The same three teams Ringolsby mentioned for Otsuka would have interest in Brad Lidge if available. Also, some major connections between Lidge and the Rockies are described. And Buster Olney mentions the Blue Jays as another possibility in his blog today.
- Ringolsby quotes Joe Nathan as saying his agents have had positive initial talks with the Twins. Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI.com had a source indicating that talks with Nathan had slowed.
Padres Sign Chris Young To Four-Year Deal
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Padres will announce a four-year contract for starter Chris Young tomorrow. There’s also a club option for the fifth year. Rosenthal also mentions that the club is working on a three-year deal for Mike Cameron; they had been reluctant to add the third year.
The dollars haven’t been revealed yet, but Young’s deal could be in the neighborhood of $10MM guaranteed with a $7-8MM option for 2011. However, Young may have wanted more money than the Noah Lowry/Rich Harden/Matt Cain standard package. He entered 2007 with 69 big league starts under his belt, more than any of the aforementioned three. Interestingly, PECOTA doesn’t like Young. It doesn’t see him ever reaching 200 innings in a season.
I don’t want to irritate Rangers fans so I won’t go on and on about how badly Kevin Towers ripped off Jon Daniels to acquire Young, Adrian Gonzalez, and Terrmel Sledge. Let’s just say it was one of the most lopsided deals of the decade and leave it at that.
Pitchers like Cole Hamels, Rich Hill, and Scott Kazmir may be in line for similar deals if they post strong 2007 seasons.
UPDATE: Young himself denied Rosenthal’s report last night, yet the Padres have a press conference scheduled for this morning.
UPDATE 2: Despite yesterday’s denial from Young, the Padres made the deal official today. The terms: four years, $14.5MM, with an $8.5MM option for the fifth year.
Additionally, Mike Cameron‘s agent expects a resolution soon according to MLB.com.
Ken Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has a new update up over at FOX Sports. The trade rumor highlights:
- Plenty of teams are interested in Brewers reliever Jose Capellan: the Giants, Rockies, Devil Rays, and Nationals. I’m surprised that Capellan was deemed unworthy of the Brewers’ pen; he gave them 70 decent innings last year. Rosenthal mentions that the Nats might convert Capellan back to a starter. A fine idea, as that’s how Capellan came up with the Braves. He just needs to get his curve and changeup tuned up.
- The story on Mike Cameron remains the same: the Padres don’t want to go past two years. A few days from now the team should know whether a compromise can be reached. Maybe a middle-ground vesting option for 2010. He’s a good athlete; he’s not going to age as poorly as some guys. If he leaves, maybe the Pads would sign Aaron Rowand. UPDATE: Just saw Mr. Rosenthal on television, and he mentioned the Braves as a mighty fine fit for Cameron if he hits the market.
- Rosenthal seems to hint that the Cubs should still get a five-year, $80MMish deal done with Carlos Zambrano, perhaps within a few months. At least, he’s urging them to close the deal despite the team being up for sale this summer.
2007 San Diego Padres
Time for a Padres Team Outlook. Notice the new sidebar section called MLBTR Features. There you will always be able to find these outlooks as well as free agent info for next offseason.
Kevin Towers’s contract obligations:
C – Josh Bard – $1.05MM
C – Rob Bowen – $0.38MM
1B – Adrian Gonzalez – $0.3805MM
2B – Marcus Giles – $3.25MM + incentives
SS – Khalil Greene – $2.25MM + incentives
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff – $0.38MM
IF – Todd Walker – $3.95MM
IF – Russell Branyan – $1.25MM
IF – Geoff Blum – $0.9MM + incentives
LF – Terrmel Sledge – $0.38MM
CF – Mike Cameron – $7MM
RF – Brian Giles – $9MM
OF – Jose Cruz Jr. – $0.65MM
SP – Greg Maddux – $10MM
SP – Jake Peavy – $4.75MM
SP – David Wells – $3MM + incentives
SP – Chris Young – $0.6MM
SP – Clay Hensley – $0.392MM
RP – Trevor Hoffman – $6.5MM
RP – Scott Linebrink – $1.75MM
RP – Scott Strickland – $0.55MM
RP – Doug Brocail – $0.5MM + incentives
RP – Cla Meredith – $0.38MM
RP – Heath Bell – $0.38MM
RP – Mike Thompson – $0.38MM
I calculate a $60MM payroll, not including any incentives earned. That’s down about $10MM from last year, so count on Towers making a big move midseason if needed.
Let’s first take a look at defense. If Bard’s 17% caught stealing rate from last year carries over, he may be the worst in baseball at shutting down the running game. Head to head fantasy baseball players, take note. He’s not quite Piazza bad, but still.
Kouzmanoff is not a glove man, nor are backup infielders Branyan and Walker. Greene and Giles form an above average defensive middle infield combo, taking some pressure off Kouz. The outfield defense should be excellent, led by Cameron. Peavy and Young are the flyball pitchers on the staff while the rest get grounders.
How about the offense, ranked 13th of 16 NL teams last year? They have a downgrade at catcher, upgrade at 2B, big upgrade at 3B, and a clear upgrade in left. It seems sneaky, but this team has improved a lot on offense by importing Giles and Sledge while letting Dave Roberts go. It’s tough to sustain a Roberts-type hitter from a power position if you’re not the White Sox. They should move towards the middle in runs scored.
One more note – I really like what they’re doing with Sledge and Cruz in left. That platoon could be league average or better for a million bucks, and if it’s not, they’ve got money in the coffers to compensate for a big-name addition like Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye should they become available.
I feel that the Padres have the best starting rotation in the league, beating out the Brewers. The staff has very good control, especially if Maddux can teach Hensley some things and Young bounces back. If healthy, top pitching prospect Cesar Carrillo could jump right in as the sixth man and post a 4.50 ERA from the start.
The bullpen is a clear strength as well; the crew should be at least top five and maintain an ERA under 4 again.
I’ve yet to give the other NL West teams an in-depth analysis, but the Padres have a well-balanced attack and quietly improved over the offseason. This looks like a playoff team.
Need more Padres previews? Geoff Young of Ducksnorts has done two – one at Hardball Times and another at CGBB.
Ducksnorts and More
If you’re a Padres fan or just enjoy good blogging, bookmark Geoff Young’s Ducksnorts. Plus, Geoff just finished a book examining the Padres in detail in all sorts of ways. The book includes a foreword by Padres CEO Sandy Alderson. Check out the Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual here.
Another blog to check out: I Remember Dome-Dogs, a new Astros blog. Intelligent writing, worth a look.
I missed this when it came out: PECOTA predicts the standings.
Red Sox Scouting Turnbow?
My apologies for the lack of posts today; I had an all-day fantasy draft. Back to trade rumors: Adam McCalvy of MLB.com had several Brewers ones in today’s article.
To begin with, 26 year-old righty starter Ben Hendrickson cleared waivers and was sent to Triple A. He was angry about it, perhaps because he had a 2.45 ERA in five appearances this spring. Apparently the Nationals and Padres are interested, and both the Brewers and Hendrickson look forward to a trade. According to Baseball America, Hendrickson has a plus curve and an 88-91 fastball. He may be a Quad-A type player; PECOTA sees a 5.00 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 109 innings.
The Red Sox had a scout watching Derrick Turnbow on Friday, though Doug Melvin says he’s not shopping the reliever. Maybe Sox pitching coach John Farrell can fix Turnbow’s walk problem, but it’s a long shot. Turnbow has two years and $5.5MM left on his contract. While that extension was ill-advised, it’s not nearly as bad as the Cubs giving Ryan Dempster three years and $15.5MM. In both cases, fairly small samples of decent control were taken as permanent and rewarded.
McCalvy also mentioned a "lunchroom rumor" that had the Padres looking at Brady Clark. Melvin said he hasn’t heard from the club. The Crew would love to shed Clark’s $3.8MM salary.
Mike Cameron Hoping For Extension
Mike Cameron is among the eight or nine viable free agent center fielder options after this season. Rather than be a part of that surplus, Cameron informed the Padres recently that he’d like to start talking about a multiyear extension. The 34 year-old makes $7MM this year, a bargain.
Our good friend PECOTA thinks Cameron will be worth about $9MM in 2008. If Baseball Prospectus’s projection system were a GM, I think it might offer him around $16MM for 2008-09. PECOTA sees him as a less injury-prone version of Reggie Sanders circa 2002.
It’s been three weeks since the sides spoke; Kevin Towers said that talks haven’t progressed.
Young Players Covet Long-Term Security
Locking up promising young players to avoid their arbitration years has become all the rage these days. It can be argued as win-win, as the player trades some risk for a smaller AAV than he could get going year to year.
- The Padres are looking to give first baseman Adrian Gonzalez a long-term deal after a contract renewal near the league minimum. They did this with Jake Peavy, though Kevin Towers renewed him in after each of his first two seasons.
- The Nationals will meet with Ryan Zimmerman‘s agent tomorrow. Barry Svrluga thinks David Wright‘s contract could be the benchmark.
- Felix Hernandez told John Hickey he’d been hoping for a multiyear deal with the Mariners rather than a renewal. If he improves upon his 2006 season and stays healthy, he might get around four years and $10MM. The Mariners have actually had talks with second baseman Jose Lopez regarding a multiyear deal.
- Keep in mind that it’s definitely not a risk-free proposition for the team. Look no further than the four-year, $11MM contract given to Royals shortstop Angel Berroa following his Rookie of the Year 2003 season.
Linebrink Trade Possibility Lingers
Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune provides his take on the Padres’ best trade bait, 30 year-old setup man Scott Linebrink. Krasovic points out a Kevin Towers pre-spring quote that makes a deal sound unlikely. Still, if some other relievers prove worthy, it could happen.
If the Padres were to acquire a second center fielder in Aaron Rowand, they’d use him or Mike Cameron in right field and shift the aging Brian Giles to left. It could make for a fine outfield defense, much like when Cameron played right for the Mets in ’05. Krasovic mentions that Cameron’s agent is currently in discussions about a contract extension, as he’s set to enter free agency after the season.
The Red Sox and Phillies may try to trade for Linebrink, and the Mets were close to a deal for him last year. He was also almost sent to Atlanta for Wilson Betemit last year, but doesn’t need to worry about that possibility anymore.