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Kevin Towers Trade Profile

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I decided to compile a nifty spreadsheet of all the trades Kevin Towers has made since 2001.  Go ahead – Download san_diego_padres_towers.xls.  From this compilation I learned a few things about Towers’s favorite trading partners.  He works well with Brian Cashman and the Yankees, albeit on mostly minor deals (5 trades since 2001).  Towers also gets along well with Bill Bavasi and the Mariners – they’ve made four trades since 2001.  He’s also made plenty of trades with the Red Sox, whether the GM was Mike Port, Theo Epstein, or the College of GMs.

Towers’s only swap with Dave Littlefield of the Pirates took place a year ago, when he acquired Dave Ross.  However, you do have to wonder if Towers will simply replicate his move from last year: add Joe Randa.  Randa represents only a modest upgrade over the current third basemen, however, and he was lousy with the Padres last year.

Given the Boston connection, Towers could pursue the resurgent Mike Lowell.  The 32 year-old makes $9MM this year and another $9MM in ’07, but he is hitting .307/.359/.516 for Boston.  Epstein could find catching prospect George Kottaras to his liking – Kottaras is hitting .276/.394/.451 for San Diego’s Double A affiliate.  Ben Johnson could be expendable and any team would love to have righty Cesar Carrillo.

Towers acquired Rich Aurilia two years ago, and he could be a useful addition again if acquired from the Reds.  Aurilia is slugging .488 on the season.  Another low-tier option could be Tony Graffanino of the Royals, who has played 26 games at third this year.

Super long shot: Adrian Beltre.  In an April interview with this website, Seattle Post-Intelligencer columnist John Hickey indicated that Beltre could be available if anyone would take a chunk of his contract.  And I already mentioned that Towers likes working with Bavasi.  On the other hand, Beltre’s been awful this season and the Padres don’t typically trade for huge contracts.

I think Towers will make some sort of move, even if it’s far too late to actually make a difference.  I expect something of the Aurilia/Graffanino flavor based on past history.

Red Sox Interested In Klesko?

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A reader passed along a trade rumor heard this morning on WEEI in Boston from Sean MacAdams.  Here’s the report:

The Red Sox would send reliever Rudy Seanez to the Padres for first baseman Ryan Klesko.

Some background seems appropriate.  Seanez is a 37 year-old right-handed reliever signed to a one-year, $1.9MM deal by the Red Sox this winter.  The club has a $2.1MM option for ’07 that can be bought out for $200,000.  Seanez also will earn incentives this year for his number of appearances. 

Last year with the Padres was easily the best season of his career; he was worth more than three wins and had the third best strikeout rate in the game among pitchers with 60 innings.  He’s toiled for eight different teams and a return to San Diego would mark his third stint with the Pads.  Seanez has seen all of his peripherals decline in his 33 innings this year, and he’s projected by Baseball Prospectus to be out of the game by ’08.  He spent time on the DL last year with shoulder discomfort.

I’m sure you’re familiar with 35 year-old slugger Ryan Klesko.  He was once a feared six-win player in the early part of the decade with San Diego.  The left-hander was acquired by the Padres in a blockbuster deal in 1999 along with Bret Boone in exchange for Quilvio Veras, Wally Joyner, and Reggie Sanders.  Klesko has a no-trade clause as a 10 and 5 player as part of his complicated, reworked contract; he makes $8MM in the final year of the deal.  Kevin Towers has already said he will not exercise the ’07 option.

Klesko hopes to return to the Padres around August 1st after having shoulder surgery on his A/C joint in April.  He hasn’t topped 500 ABs since 2002, but remains adept at drawing walks and may owe last year’s career-low slugging percentage to his painful shoulder and a pinched nerve in his neck.  Klesko would certainly clear waivers, so the Padres have until August 31st to deal him.  He’s willing to waive his no-trade rights if he’s not getting playing time with the Padres and he’s being sent to a contender.  That’s probably the main wrinkle in this possible deal – Klesko would only be a bench player in Boston.  In addition, Kevin Towers’s main concern right now is finding a third baseman.   

What Could Greg Maddux Bring?

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Add the Brewers to the list of teams that could be a fit for Greg Maddux.  The shoulder injuries of Tomo Ohka and Ben Sheets seem to be rehabbing normally, so there may not be a vacancy in Milwaukee’s rotation.  Still, it never hurts to have too much starting pitching. 

Maddux, now 40 years old, is piling on the innings as usual this year.  His critics will point to a trend in declining ERAs, but I don’t think it’s that simple.  The Professor has continued to pitch like he has since 2003.  The only real difference in 2006 is that his hit rate is up to 10.1 per nine.  I know it doesn’t seem like it, but researchers have not found the pitcher to have a major influence on the fate of a batted ball.  At the most, he might explain 30% of the variance.  Luck is a far bigger determinant, and defense and ballpark are signficant too.

Maddux’s ability at this point is probably on par with that of Jeff Weaver.  He’s a low 4 ERA type guy, a nice addition for a team in need of depth.  He may be worth about 2-3 wins over replacement level from here on out, which may be the difference for a team like the Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, or Dodgers.

If Jim Hendry can find a destination that Maddux likes, pass along the remainder of his $9MM salary, and get a decent young hitter in return, he’s done his job.  For some reason I keep thinking of the Brewers’ Corey Hart.  He’s versatile and Major League ready, and the Cubs badly need outfield help for the future.  The Dodgers’ Delwyn Young could be a possibility, while Ben Johnson could be available from the Padres.  Johnson is currently on the DL with a shoulder strain, but he can still be dealt.

Back in April, it was clear Maddux’s value was at its highest point of the season.  It wasn’t clear that the Cubs would be this awful, however.

 

Alfonso Soriano Trade Possibilities

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Ken Rosenthal’s latest article mentions that a trade of Alfonso Soriano could happen, but Nationals are more likely to offer Soriano a long-term deal to convince him to become an outfielder.  I don’t doubt Rosenthal, but let’s take a look at some possible suitors for the second baseman.  I’ll assume that a trade signifies no position change.

First off, let’s narrow the field by looking at which teams lack an established 2B.

Blue Jays – Looks like Aaron Hill is the man at second base for 2006, and he’s a fairly solid hitter already.  Plus, Soriano probably isn’t Ricciardi’s type of player.

Mariners – Jose Lopez will get the nod entering this season, and he slugged .505 during a couple of stints at Triple A.  Giving him a full-time shot makes way more sense than trading for Soriano.

Marlins – Obviously the Fish aren’t dealing for Sori.

Mets – The Mets have made all sorts of splashes this winter, and adding a 2B isn’t top priority.  They’d like to cut their losses with Matsui, but Jeff Keppinger and Anderson Hernandez are viable in-house candidates.

Cubs – The Cubs have a three-headed monster at second base, and Soriano probably doesn’t fit into the budget at $12MM+ over several years.  The Cubs have a tradition of free swinging, and I could see Hendry trying this for 2006 if A)The Nationals win their arbitration case and/or eat some salary and B)the price is low.

Cardinals – St. Louis seems content with a battle between Junior Spivey and Aaron Miles for the 2B job.  Plus, Soriano doesn’t seem like the typical St. Louis team player. 

Padres – They’re going to let Mark Bellhorn, Eric Young, and Josh Barfield have a crack at 2B.  Plus, I can’t see how Soriano would fit into the budget.

Of course, the Nationals already had an established 2B when they traded for Soriano, so maybe this isn’t the best guide.  Rosenthal’s suggestion that Soriano will stay put is entirely logical once you break down the potential trade partners.  If a deal was struck, it’d mostly be a salary dump and I think the only teams with mild interest would be the Cubs and Mets.  Just my opinion. 

Piazza Signs With Padres

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RotoWorld and other sources are reporting that the Padres have signed Mike Piazza to a one-year, $2MM deal with an $8MM mutual option for 2007.  The Padres were one of a handful of teams that stood to better their club by acquiring Piazza or Bengie Molina.  At this point, Molina should be begging the Angels to take him back, as they’re one of the few teams he can help.

The Padres probably added 2 or 3 wins by signing Piazza, so they’re getting good bang for their buck.  There’s approximately zero chance they exercise that 2007 option.  Here’s a look at some various projections on him for 2006:

PECOTA:  .253/.329/.420 with 11 HR in 333 PA
Bill James:  .268/.349/.476 with 24 HR in 456 ABs
RotoAuthority:  .272, 24 HR in 460 ABs
ZiPS:  .239/.328/.411 with 16 HR in 394 ABs

PECOTA expects a pretty big decline and the smallest amount of playing time.  ZiPS is also not very optimistic on the catcher.  Bill James and I were picturing a rejuvenated Piazza as an AL DH, so my projection is going to require a major adjustment.  ZiPS may have hit the mark, as Piazza is entering a home ballpark that has suppressed right-handers’ home runs by a whopping 41%.  The changes to PETCO will affect the right field power alley, but Piazza has been known for his opposite field power in the past.

The Bengie Molina Sweepstakes

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Bengie Molina has strangely emerged as neglected free agent, facing very little interest from teams and a possible one year deal.  Coming off a career best .295/.336/.446 line, this is a curious situation.

Molina will be entering his age 32 season in 2006, and I’ve projected him at .289 with 17 HR next season.  While his defense is no great shakes, one would think a few clubs would come out ahead in offering him a reasonable two-year pact.  However, once you factor in defense, Molina ranked 15th among catchers in 2005 despite his solid showing at the plate.  He presents very little improvement for most ballclubs, and that seems to explain the lack of interest.

Should the Blue Jays pursue Molina?  Probably not.  He was only marginally better than Gregg Zaun in 2005, and he’ll definitely cost more.  I understand the idea is to platoon the players and have a sweet tandem like the Reds, but is Molina really going to want to do that? 

Honestly, these are the teams that I think stand to gain at least one win by adding Molina:

Royals
Angels
Rockies
Padres

The Royals already tossed their free cash at other marginal free agents, although Molina would’ve made some sense if the club is ready to give up on John Buck.  Most likely, they’ll keep Buck around longer than they should in order to pretend they didn’t get hosed in the Beltran trade.

The Angels really should’ve tried harder to bring Molina back.  Jeff Mathis is a huge question mark on a team for which a win or two could determine whether they make the playoffs.

The Rockies don’t really have a good reason to go out and sign a free agent.  But if I were Molina’s agent, I’d campaign hard to get him to Coors for a season.  He could play there for $4MM, hit 20 HR, and get that big deal he was looking for.  It’s been done before.

The Padres seem content with Doug Mirabelli and Dave Ross, who are both backups.  Given their lousy division and legitimate shot at the playoffs, I’m surprised they haven’t chased Molina a bit more.

The Dodgers would probably be the best fit, and they have inquired about Molina.  It would be a logical solution to bring Molina in for a year before the team evaluates the readiness of Dioner Navarro and Russell Martin.

Adam Eaton Dealt To Rangers

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Kevin Towers made a great trade today, acquiring promising youngsters Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez (plus Terrmel Sledge) for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka.  I didn’t think a deal was imminent yesterday, but I also didn’t think Jon Daniels would surrender a comparable, younger pitcher in the trade.

In what way is Adam Eaton better than Chris Young?  Putting their numbers side by side, I’d say Young is already the preferable pitcher.  Their strikeout rates are comparable, and Young’s superior control results in fewer baserunners.  Young’s durability is an unknown, but it couldn’t be much worse than Eaton’s.  Eaton’s had a nice assist from Petco, while Young threw well in his initial exposure to the pitchers’ hell that is Ameriquest.  Throw in the fact that Young is four years away from a big payday while Eaton is right around the corner, and this looks like Jon Daniels’s first misstep.

What’s more, Adrian Gonzalez is a better bet than Akinori Otsuka.  Gonzalez hit .338/.399/.561 in his third crack at Triple A this year.  He never stuck with the Rangers, but only received 192 at-bats in the Majors.  He’s a useful player at his current level, and at 23 years old he can certainly improve.

Otsuka showed some serious signs of decline in his second Major League season.  He’s 33 years old and had a dangerously bad walk rate in ’05.  Strikeouts were down as well.  He still may be helpful to the Texas bullpen, as he appears to keep the ball in the yard.  But keep in mind that’s based on just 66 non-Petco Major League innings. 

The Otsuka-Gonzalez part of the deal is still fairly reasonable in light of each team’s needs.  Replacing Eaton with Young, however, heavily favors the Padres. 

Adam Eaton On The Block

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ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick spoke to Adam Eaton last week, and his article definitely gives the vibe that the righthander won’t be staying in San Diego past 2006. 

Eaton’s opinion of the Padres’ three-year, $17MM offer?

"It was almost like a slap in the face compared to what I’m capable of doing."

That’s an amusing statement.  Here’s my translation:

"I’ve pitched almost 800 Major League innings and have posted a medicore 4.35 ERA for my career.  I’ve never pitched more than 200 innings or had an ERA below 4 in a season, in a pitcher’s ballpark to boot.  But since I’m under 30 and don’t completely suck, I’m worth at least $10MM per season.  I’m insulted that you’ve only offered me $5MM per season."

Given that impressive resume, it’s no surprise teams are beating down the door to acquire Eaton.  No, really, they are.  These are the interested parties, according to Crasnick:

Rangers
Nationals
Tigers
Orioles
Red Sox
Cubs

Thoughts on a few of these suitors:

The Rangers have been shaky about including both Gerald Laird and Adrian Gonzalez to get a deal done, and they reportedly backed out of such a deal earlier this month.  Eaton has been below average in home run prevention throughout his career, so I’m not sure he’s the best fit for Ameriquest.  But Texas can’t count on Vicente Padilla to fill the void left by Kenny Rogers, so it’s likely they’ll bring another starter in this winter.

If Eaton could remain healthy, he’d give Washington solid starting pitching depth.  1-5, it’d go John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Eaton, Brian Lawrence, and Ryan Drese.  Top prospect Mike Hinckley will need some time before he’s ready to step in.  A swap of Ryan Church for Eaton sounds like fair value to me, and Church would be a nice fit in left field for the Pads.

I’m not sure that the Cubs have what Padres GM Kevin Towers would want for Eaton.  Plus, the point of Hendry adding another starter was seemingly to add a durable pitcher to the mix in the event that Kerry Wood can’t make 30 starts.  Eaton is anything but durable.   

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