Off to a major league-worst 14-24 start, the Giants look like sellers in the making. The problem is that the veterans they could attempt to move are lacking in trade value, observes Buster Olney of ESPN. The best of the bunch is Johnny Cueto, but the offseason opt-out clause in the right-hander’s contract takes away some of his appeal. Then there’s righty Jeff Samardzija, who owns a 5.44 ERA in 46 1/3 innings (albeit with a 3.43 FIP) and is due upward of $60MM through 2020, as well as aging outfielders Hunter Pence and Denard Span. The 34-year-old Pence is making $18.5MM both this year and next, while Span, 33, is on a $9MM salary through 2018 and has a $4MM buyout for 2019.
Giants Rumors
Mark Melancon Progressing Well
- Further north, the Giants have cause for hope that closer Mark Melancon will require only the brief DL timeline the club had charted when he was taken off the active roster. As Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports on Twitter, Melancon is reporting reduced symptoms in his forearm. The righty will test things out by playing catch tomorrow.
Giants Place Mark Melancon On 10-Day DL
9:52pm: The hope is that Melancon will be ready to be activated on May 16th, the earliest he’d be available given his backdated DL placement, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to tweet. Manager Bruce Bochy noted that the veteran hurler has been pitching through some discomfort for a few weeks, with the team evidently deciding now was time to try to get him past the issue.
6:21pm: The Giants have placed closer Mark Melancon on the 10-day DL, Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News reports on Twitter. The team is calling his injury a “mild right pronator strain.”
At the moment, it’s not clear how long Melancon is expected to miss. It’s promising, at least, that the team has specified the strain is “mild.” But any forearm issue comes with potential implications for elbow health, so the club will need to exercise care in getting Melancon back to the hill.
The news is yet another blow to a San Francisco team that has drastically underperformed expectations after promising Melancon $62MM over four years to solve the club’s ninth-inning woes of last year. The veteran reliever has held up his end of the bargain — he carries a 2.53 ERA through 10 2/3 innings, with a typically excellent K/BB ratio (10:1) — but not much else has gone right for the Giants thus far.
It seems likely Derek Law will get the first crack at the closer’s job while Melancon is down, Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area writes. Hunter Strickland would also seem to have a shot at factoring in the mix.
Doug Fister Close To Signing; Mets Not Involved
10:11am: Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the Mets are not signing Fister. He characterizes the Angels as one of multiple “serious considerations” for Fister.
9:48am: Free-agent right-hander Doug Fister is close to signing with a yet-unreported team, per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (Twitter link). Though Fister has had interest from both the AL and NL, he’s likely to land with a National League club, per Heyman. In a second tweet, Heyman notes that the D-backs are “in the mix” on Fister, adding that he hasn’t heard much tying him to the Mets as of late. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that the Mets, D-backs, Giants, Angels and Blue Jays have all been in the mix to varying extents.
From the listed teams, the Mets jump out as the club in most dire need of rotation reinforcements, as New York has lost Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Seth Lugo to injuries already, while right-handers Matt Harvey, Robert Gsellman and Zack Wheeler have all struggled thus far in 2017. The Mets are hopeful that Matz and Lugo will be able to return in late May or early June, though there’s no guarantee that either comes back at full strength just yet. And Wheeler, of course, is on an innings limit in 2017 after missing the entire 2015 and 2016 seasons due to Tommy John surgery.
The D-backs, of course, have had their own brush with injuries, having lost right-hander Shelby Miller for the season due to a torn ulnar collateral ligament that necessitated Tommy John surgery. Arizona, though, seemingly has better depth at the upper levels of its farm, with Braden Shipley, Anthony Banda and Zack Godley among the potential rotation options currently in Triple-A (to say nothing of right-hander Archie Bradley, who is currently in the Major League bullpen but could likely start if deemed necessary).
As for the Giants, they lost Madison Bumgarner for what will likely be most of the first half of the season, if not more, due to a controversial dirtbike accident that resulted in a shoulder injury. None of the Giants’ other starters — Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Matt Moore, Matt Cain or Ty Blach — has mustered an ERA south of 4.50 on the season. The Giants also traded one of their upper-level depth options, Clayton Blackburn, to the Rangers earlier this year. However, with Tyler Beede and Chris Stratton both in Triple-A, the Giants do possess some upper-level options should they decide to shuffle the rotation.
The Angels and Blue Jays, of course, both have plenty of cause to seek rotation help as well. However, Heyman seems to suggest that an AL club isn’t as likely, and that’s a logical line of thinking for Fister, who could likely post better numbers in the National League.
It should be noted that Fister is hardly a quick fix for any team’s rotation; the right-hander will almost certainly need a fair amount of time to ramp up before he’s ready to join a Major League rotation. And while he comes with plenty of name value, Fister’s fastball has been in the 86-87 mph range in recent seasons. Unsurprisingly, there’s been a corresponding dip in his effectiveness. Last year he proved a durable rotation piece for the Astros (32 starts) but logged just a 4.64 ERA with 5.7 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 in 180 1/3 innings.
2018 Vesting Options Update
Each year, the free-agent class is impacted by the performance of players with vesting options (as is the financial future of players with said provisions in their contract). For those unfamiliar with the option, a vesting option is typically (though not always) a club option that can automatically trigger based on the player’s health and/or performance. Meeting pre-determined criteria for games played, innings pitched and plate appearances are the most common ways of triggering a vesting option. Some also require that a player avoid the DL at the end of the season and/or for a certain number of games over the course of the year.
Here’s a look at all of the 2018 player options that can automatically trigger based on the players’ 2017 performance…
- Matt Cain: The 2017 campaign is the final season of a six-year, $127.5MM extension that Cain signed with the Giants on April 2, 2012. Prior to that point, Cain had been one of the most durable and efficient starters in the NL, but injuries have completely derailed Cain’s career since that 2012 season. Cain hasn’t thrown more than 90 1/3 innings since 2013, and so far he’s delivered just a 4.64 ERA in 455 1/3 innings over the five extra years of control the Giants bought out. If he can reach 200 innings this season and is not on the disabled list due to elbow or shoulder troubles to end the year, his $21.5MM club option would become guaranteed. However, he’s averaging fewer than 5 1/3 innings per start in 2017, and his previous health woes make that decidedly unlikely. His option comes with a $7.5MM buyout, which seems like an inevitable outcome.
- Andre Ethier: Ethier batted .273/.351/.429 through the first three seasons of his five-year, $85MM extension (including particularly strong efforts in 2013 and 2015), but he played in just 16 games last season and has been on the disabled list for the entire 2017 season (herniated disk in his lower back). His $17.5MM club option would automatically vest with 550 plate appearances this season, but that’s obviously not going to happen, so he’ll receive a $2.5MM buyout instead.
- Matt Garza: Garza’s four-year, $50MM contract with the Brewers contained one of the more convoluted vesting options in recent memory. Injury concerns surrounding Garza allowed the club to land a team option valued at a base of just $5MM. However, had Garza made 110 starts over the contract’s four years, pitched 115 innings in 2017 and avoided the DL at the end of the 2017 season, the option would’ve become guaranteed at $13MM. On the other side of the coin, the Brewers would’ve been able to pick it up at just $1MM had Garza missed 130 or more days during any single season of the contract. Neither of those scenarios will play out at this point, though. All of that is a long-winded way of saying that Garza’s option won’t be vesting at $13MM and will come at a potentially reasonable rate of $5MM.
- Gio Gonzalez: Gonzalez’s five-year, $42MM extension came with a $12MM club option for the 2017 season (which was exercised) and a $12MM club/vesting option for the 2018 campaign. If the left-hander reaches 180 innings this season, he’ll be locked in at $12MM next season. For a player as durable as Gonzalez, who averaged 31 starts per year from 2010-16, that seems simple enough. But, Gonzalez has had difficulty working deep into games and has not crossed the 180-inning threshold since 2013. This season, though, he’s already racked up 44 1/3 innings through seven starts — an average of about 6 1/3 frames per outing. He’d need only 29 starts at that pace to trigger the option. And even if he doesn’t sustain that innings pace, if he can avoid the DL and average even 5 1/3 to 5 2/3 innings per start for the rest of the year, he’d accrue enough innings to guarantee that option. Of course, if Gonzalez delivers anything close to the 3.57 ERA he’s turned in through parts of six seasons as a National, the team will likely pick up the option even if it doesn’t vest.
- J.J. Hardy: Hardy decided to forgo the open market at the end of the 2014 season, instead re-upping with Orioles in early October on a three-year, $40MM deal. His contract comes with a $14MM club option ($2MM buyout) that could automatically vest in the event that Hardy reaches 600 plate appearances this season. Hardy, however, has reached that total just twice in six previous seasons with the Orioles, and he’s hitting a mere .196/.232/.252 through his first 113 plate appearances in 2017. Based on his recent health track record, it could be considered unlikely that he stays healthy enough to trigger the option. But if he does remain healthy and doesn’t turn things around at the plate, the O’s won’t have a hard time justifying a reduction in playing time to prevent the option from vesting.
- Greg Holland: Holland signed a one-year, $7MM deal with a mutual option for the 2018 season, though so long as he remains healthy it’s effectively a two-year, $22MM contract with a player option/opt-out provision. Holland’s $10MM mutual option becomes a $15MM player option if he appears in 50 total games or finishes 30 games in 2017. He’s come out of the gate roaring as a dominant closer in Colorado, just as he was in Kansas City. Holland has already finished 14 games, meaning he needs just 16 more to trigger that player option and secure the right to re-enter the open market. An injury seems like the only thing that will stand in Holland’s way, as he’s currently sporting a 1.29 ERA with a 17-to-5 K/BB ratio, a career-best 51.6 percent ground-ball rate and a 93.9 mph average fastball through his first 14 innings.
- Hisashi Iwakuma: After injury concerns stemming from Iwakuma’s physical caused the Dodgers to back out of a reported three-year, $45MM agreement in the 2015-16 offseason, Iwakuma instead returned to the Mariners on a one-year deal with a pair of vesting options. Iwakuma needed 162 innings to trigger his 2017 option, and he needed either 162 innings in 2017 or 324 innings between 2016-17 to trigger his $10MM option for the 2018 season. The 36-year-old racked up 199 innings last year, meaning he now needs just 125 innings in 2017, though he must also avoid the disabled list at season’s end as well. Iwakuma has barely averaged five innings per outing (31 through six starts), but he also needs just 94 more innings this year for that option to kick in.
- Ricky Nolasco: Nolasco’s option isn’t a standard vesting option, but his $13MM club option would become a player option with 400 innings pitched between 2016-17. The 34-year-old logged 197 2/3 innings last year, meaning he’d need 202 1/3 innings in 2017 in order to convert his option. That’s a total that Nolasco has reached only twice in his career, and he’s not on pace to approach that number through his first seven starts of the season. If Nolasco were to make the same number of starts as last season (32), he’d need to average nearly 6 2/3 innings per outing for the rest of the season to reach that level. If he ties his career-high with 33 starts, he’d need to average 6 1/3 frames through season’s end. It’s technically possible that Nolasco does end up with a $13MM player option, but the likelier scenario is that the Halos will choose between a $13MM club option and a $1MM buyout. (Thanks to MLBTR commenters paytoplay and jdobson1822 for pointing out Nolasco’s option.)
Cot’s Contracts was used in the creation of this post.
Brandon Crawford Could Rejoin Giants On Tuesday
- Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford, on the DL since April 26 with a right groin strain, could rejoin the team as early as Tuesday, relays John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. Crawford will play a Double-A rehab game Monday, and if he gets through it unscathed, his first career DL stint will end.
Five Teams Interested In Doug Fister
A month after they first drew a connection to free agent right-hander Doug Fister, the Mets are still considering signing the 33-year-old, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation. New York was among four teams to watch Fister throw last week, joining the Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Angels, reports Cotillo, who adds that the Giants also took a recent look at him.
The Mets’ rotation is in far worse straits than it was when they were eyeing Fister in early April. Ace Noah Syndergaard has since landed on the disabled list with a partially torn right lat, and he’s unlikely to return until after the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Steven Matz and Seth Lugo still haven’t pitched this year as a result of elbow problems, and Matt Harvey, Robert Gsellman and Zack Wheeler have logged subpar results. In the Mets’ view, Harvey also hasn’t been a model member of the organization behind the scenes, evidenced by the three-day suspension he’s currently serving.
The other four teams targeting Fister have also seen their rotations deal with injuries. Two of Toronto’s top starters, Aaron Sanchez and J.A. Happ, are on the DL. Arizona lost Shelby Miller to a season-ending elbow injury last month, leaving it without an obvious solution to team with Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker and Patrick Corbin. Los Angeles is without two of its starters, Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs, both of whom are on the DL. Lastly, San Francisco’s ace, Madison Bumgarner, will sit out until at least midsummer thanks to a dirt bike accident, and fellow starters Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Matt Moore, Matt Cain and Ty Blach have recorded mediocre to poor results in the early going.
Like the Giants’ starters, the soft-tossing Fister hasn’t been all that effective of late. Once a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation arm (if not more), Fister produced like a back-end type with the Nationals and Astros from 2015-16, posting a 4.48 ERA and a 4.68 FIP in 283 1/3 innings. Further, whether he signs a major league deal or a minor league pact, Fister will surely need some time to tune up at the lower levels before potentially contributing in the big leagues this season.
Luxury Tax Could Give Giants Incentive To Sell
- The Giants, off to a miserable start, look like sellers in the making. That’s even more true when considering the luxury tax, Rosenthal points out. The Giants exceeded the threshold in the each of the previous two years, and doing so for a third straight season would force them to pay a 50 percent tax (up from their current 30 percent). But if San Francisco rids itself of enough money to get under the limit, it would reset the tax to 20 percent. Trading right-hander Johnny Cueto would help the Giants’ cause from a financial standpoint, though his looming opt-out clause could complicate his market, observes Rosenthal.
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Giants Designate Drew Stubbs For Assignment
The Giants have designated outfielder Drew Stubbs for assignment and purchased the contract of outfielder Justin Ruggiano from Triple-A in a corresponding transaction, the team announced.
[Updated Giants depth chart at Roster Resource]
Stubbs was signed to a minor league deal in early April and was promoted two weeks ago, though the veteran provided only two hits and a .258 OPS in 24 plate appearances. While Stubbs posted strong numbers in a regular role for Colorado in 2014 and has a good career slash line against left-handed pitching, he has generally been a below-average hitter for his career, more known for his defense and base-running than his production at the plate.
Both Stubbs and Ruggiano are right-handed hitters with the ability to play all three outfield spots, with Ruggiano offering a bit more pop (in the form of a .258/.322/.438 career slash over 1416 PA). Once Ruggiano appears in a game for the Giants, they will be the eighth different team Ruggiano has suited up for over parts of nine seasons in the bigs.
The Giants entered the season lacking in outfield depth, a situation that has only worsened with Denard Span, Jarrett Parker, and minor league signing Melvin Upton Jr. all hitting the disabled list. Ruggiano’s outfield versatility will help the bench, though he adds another right-handed bat to a Giants roster that is already lacking in lefty-swingers.
Blue Jays Claim Neil Ramirez
The Blue Jays have claimed righty Neil Ramirez off waivers from the Giants, per a club announcement. San Francisco had recently designated him for assignment.
Ramirez, who’ll soon turn 28, was knocked around in his 10 1/3 innings on the year with the Giants, coughing up 15 earned runs. But he retired 18 batters via strikeout while only issuing four free passes. Optimists can also point to Ramirez’s current .500 BABIP and 33.0% strand rate — both of which are unlikely to continue at such extremes.
Toronto will plug Ramirez onto the active roster, as he’s out of options. The club will hope the luck can turn for the righty, who has struggled with injury in recent years but has at times been quite impressive. Thus far in 2017, he has shown an increase in average fastball velocity (to 92.8 mph) and swinging-strike rate (12.6%) as against his 2016 numbers.
