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Rosenthal’s Latest: Sexson, Dye

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I feel bad for Ken Rosenthal’s family, as they won’t be seeing much of him until August 1st.  He’s got another update for us tonight.

  • The Mariners are hoping to unload Richie Sexson; can you blame them?  To trade for Sexson now would be insane, even with the Ms eating half of the $14MM he’s owed in 2008.  He has shown almost no signs of life this season.  Rosenthal suggests a Sexson for Matt Morris swap but I’d much rather have Morris.
  • The Brewers have considered the possibility of a Jermaine Dye trade.  Kenny Williams apparently wants Derrick Turnbow or Manny Parra, which actually sounds reasonable.
  • Rosenthal also has some info regarding role players Jeff Conine and Mark Loretta.  But even I have a hard time getting worked up over that.  I’d like to see a new, interesting name tossed into the rumor mill.  Like when Roy Oswalt came up a year ago.  How about Rafael Furcal or Jim Thome?  They’re free agents after the ’08 season, they should be semi-available.

Graziano’s Latest: Livan, Wily Mo

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Dan Graziano at the Newark Star-Ledger has really stepped up in recent days with a lot of insider trade talk.  Let’s see what he has in store for us this morning.

  • Apparently Josh Byrnes is calling around, actively shopping Livan Hernandez.  According to Graziano, the Mets, Braves, and Mariners have expressed interest.  To the contrary, Ken Rosenthal wrote last night that the Mets and Braves are not interested.  Who to believe?  Hopefully the Mariners do better than Livan if they make a move for a starter.  To hear Nick Piecoro tell it, the Diamondbacks are more likely to just opt for the draft picks they’ll get if they let Hernandez leave via free agency.
  • The Yankees are in a quandary when it comes to dealing Scott Proctor or Kyle Farnsworth.  For Proctor, they want more than just a role player like Ty Wigginton.  They want a reliever back, which begs the question – why not just keep Proctor?  With Farnsy, the Yanks are reluctant to pay a big chunk of his $5.5 salary for ’08.  They should toss in $2MM and see if that’s enough to get Wiggy.
  • If the Red Sox can snag Bobby Kielty, they might turn around and trade Wily Mo Pena to the White Sox.  Wily Mo in that ballpark with 600 plate appearances?  40 home runs.  Might make Theo look bad.  Dejan Kovacevic mentions that Epstein is "actively shopping" Pena, and seems to like the idea of the Bucs sending Salomon Torres to Boston for him. 
  • The Brewers, Phillies, and Dodgers are looking at Oakland lefty and impending free agent Joe Kennedy.  Kennedy is only 28 and he has had National League success as a starter.

Joel Sherman’s Ten Trade Candidates

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Joel Sherman of the New York Post has an article today regarding ten veterans who may be traded this month.  He’s packed the column full of insider info beyond the ten players highlighted; check it out.

  • Mark Teixeira is now more likely to be dealt than Eric Gagne.  Sherman sees the Angels as perhaps the best possibility here; they’d have to include Casey Kotchman.  I imagine Ervin Santana’s stock is down far enough that the Rangers would not settle for the two.
  • The Indians appear to be out on Gagne but the Tigers still make sense for all parties.  Would Todd Jones graciously step down from his closer post?  Detroit’s bullpen has actually been doing well lately.
  • The Royals want a righthanded-hitting center fielder in return for Octavio Dotel.  Now that’s a tall order.  Sherman names Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez as two who fit the bill, but such a trade would require young talent like Zack Greinke coming back to the Mets.  Just speculating, but Melky Cabrera and Reggie Willits also fit the Royals’ need.
  • Apparently the Mariners and Braves are "very interested’ in Dmitri Young.  That’s the first I’ve heard of a team besides Atlanta inquiring.
  • Oddly, the Devil Rays appear to have some interest in Kyle Farnsworth if the money can be worked out.  They like Scott Proctor as well, so keep an eye on that Ty Wigginton rumor.  Sherman mentions that the market is heavy with available role players, so look for a lot of boring deals with that type of player.  Just kidding, trade rumors are never boring.  Sherman tosses out Tadahito Iguchi to the Padres; that’s a fresh one.
  • Sherman runs down all of the available relievers we already know about.  Throw Kiko Calero in there as a new name. 

Graziano On Greinke, Pettitte

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Good stuff today from Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger.  Here’s my summary:

  • Beyond the Cubs, Graziano lists the Braves, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks as teams interested in pitcher Zack Greinke.  If the initial asking price for Octavio Dotel was as high as reported, I can’t imagine what Dayton Moore would want for Greinke.
  • Graziano’s Dotel suitors: Cubs, Dodgers, and Brewers.  The Red Sox, Rockies, and Indians have been mentioned by other sources.  Quite a market for this guy.
  • David Weathers is seen as the poor man’s Dotel/Gagne.  Let’s see if Wayne Krivsky can get something useful for him.  Stormy makes another $2.75MM in ’08 before his contract is up.
  • The Mets are mostly focused on a power relief arm, as Roy Oswalt and Dontrelle Willis are said to be unavailable.  I have no idea why Willis keeps getting lumped in with Oswalt; they are nowhere near equal.  Graziano says the Mets still like Javier Vazquez but the White Sox keep trying to pawn off Jose Contreras instead.
  • The Braves are trying to deal for southpaw reliever C.J. Wilson of the Rangers.  The 26 year-old has an undeserved 2.81 ERA right now.  His control has been worse this year, so he’d have to remain unhittable to be effective.
  • The Mariners inquired on Andy Pettitte, but the Yankees aren’t giving up yet.

Decision Time On Jose Guillen

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Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times spoke to Jose Guillen yesterday about his contract situation.  The 31 year-old right fielder was hesitant to discuss it, but Baker managed to extract some info.  Basically Guillen wants to stay with the Mariners past just 2008.  He would like to finally stay in one place.  Some kind of decision should come before month’s end.

Guillen signed with the Mariners back in December of ’06, receiving a $1MM signing bonus.  His base salary for this year is $4MM, and he can make another $2.75MM in playing time incentives.  The 2008 situation: basically a $9MM club option, which Guillen can void if exercised.

Guillen’s up to a .285/.358/.455 line, and his RBI total will probably approach 100.  After a slow June he’s been raking in July as the team’s cleanup hitter.  Keep in mind though that the bar is set pretty high for a right fielder – league average is .282/.356/.455.

Since Guillen can probably beat one year and $9MM on the open market this winter, the Mariners would have to give him a multiyear deal to keep him.  Say three years, $36MM or so.  At least that seems like market value to me.  Obviously it would be better if the Ms didn’t have to extend him all the way through 2010.

As Baker notes in his post, that the Mariners are entertaining a Guillen extension is a sign that they might trade Adam Jones or Wladimir Balentien within the next two weeks (probably for pitching).  Both youngsters appear Major League ready and could fetch something good.  But Javier Vazquez probably wouldn’t approve a trade to Seattle, leaving the starting pitcher pickings slim.   

Reds Could Trade Arroyo

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Just a small note in Nick Cafardo’s recent column: the Reds could trade 30 year-old starter Bronson Arroyo.

Last year, Arroyo took the National League by storm by posting a 3.29 ERA in a whopping 240 innings.  He led all of baseball with 3851 pitches thrown.  Either the league started figuring him out this year, or the workload caught up to him and contributing to his declining strikeout rate.  Maybe a little of both.

In February of this year, Wayne Krivsky signed Arroyo to a contract extension for 2009-10.  Under his previous contract he’ll get $3.95MM in ’08, and the Reds added a $2.5MM signing bonus to that.  He’ll make $9.5MM in ’09, $11MM in ’10, and has an $11MM club option for ’11 with a $2MM buyout attached.  So basically think $29MM for 2008-10.  It’s not terrible but not a bargain; $10MM is probably the going rate for a guy like Arroyo these days.  Not bad for a guy waived by the Pirates in ’03. 

Woody Paige considers Arroyo one option for the Rockies, but finds it unlikely.  The only past Arroyo trade rumor I know of was back in December of ’05, when he was rumored to be going to Seattle for Jeremy Reed.  The Mariners remain in the hunt for a starter, but Arroyo probably isn’t viewed as much more than an innings-eater by most clubs.  Some other teams possibly looking for a starter include the Braves, Padres,  Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks.

Mariners After Dontrelle Willis?

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According to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, Dontrelle Willis-to-Seattle buzz is starting to heat up.  Willis could slide right in with Felix Hernandez to form a solid 1-2 punch atop the Mariners’ rotation.

Baker pretty much covers all the analysis angles and scenarios in his blog posting.  The Mariners have plenty of players who could interest the Marlins: Jeremy Reed, Jeff Clement, and/or Wladimir Balentien.  Baker does not think Adam Jones would be necessary to get a deal done, and the Mariners wouldn’t part with him anyway.  (By the way, click here to see my fantasy analysis of Jones).

It’s an odd time to trade Dontrelle, as his value is pretty low with his performance and forearm issues.  Willis just feels like a better pitcher than he actually is, doesn’t he?  As Baker says, the Ms would be gambling on Willis returning to form.  Better to gamble a few unproven prospects than seven years and $126MM. 

It seems that former Willis contenders like the Mets and perhaps Braves might be out of the running.  Kevin Kernan of the New York Times says the Marlins won’t trade Willis within the NL East, and most likely he’ll head west. 

But before purchasing your custom-made Willis Mariners jersey, consider that the Dodgers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks have all expressed interest in him before.  And those teams are kind of west of some stuff. 

Ichiro Extension In The Works

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UPDATE: Larry Stone is saying the five-year pact could approach $100MM.  David Cameron agrees.  And Ken Rosenthal has adjusted his figure from $75-90MM to $90-100MM.  An agreement appears imminent.  Looks like the Ms are paying full sticker price for Ichiro, though it’s not a bad deal.  Torii Hunter may be positioned as the best available center fielder this winter. 

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times describes how drastically the atmosphere has changed in Seattle over the last year, especially from Ichiro’s point of view.  Gone are the negative tree metaphors; the vibe is positive under John McLaren.  Winning doesn’t hurt either.

Stone speculates that a contract extension could happen soon for Ichiro.  He may not be a home run hitter, and he may not draw walks.  But all the hits have led to a strong .379 career OBP.  And he’s hit enough triples and doubles to bring his career SLG to .439 despite averaging about ten home runs per year.  Throw in premium center field defense and international appeal, and a four-year, $72MM extension sounds fair.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Willis, Dunn, Griffey

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up today.  Not too much brand new material but worth discussing nonetheless.

  • Rosenthal opines that Dontrelle Willis is currently at his peak value.  Mark Buehrle is off the market.  Dontrelle is seemingly healthy and under control through 2009.  There was a scare, though, when Willis had a sore forearm in June.  Rosenthal points out that despite mediocre stats the past couple of seasons, Willis still has an ace aura about him.  That’s probably because of his near-Cy Young in ’05 and the way he took the league by storm in ’03.  The Mets, Mariners, Dodgers, Red Sox, Rockies, and Diamondbacks could all be interested in the Marlins start shopping Willis.  Larry Beinfest seems to be leaning against it though.
  • The Padres may still consider trading for Adam Dunn, but will see how Milton Bradley plays over the next few weeks first.  The Reds and Padres aren’t a great match, as the Padres don’t have many big-name prospects.  Maybe something like Clay Hensley plus Chase Headley (those names are oddly similar), if the Reds are sour on Edwin Encarnacion?
  • Many members of the Mariners’ front office would like to bring Ken Griffey Jr. back, but CEO Howard Lincoln "harbors resentment over Griffey’s departure in 2000."  That makes it sound like Griffey left via free agency, but of course he was actually traded to the Reds.  I did a little digging on that situation, and found that the Mariners offered Griffey an eight-year, $140MM contract in September of 1999.  Junior turned that down and requested a trade in November, citing a desire to play closer to his Orlando home.  Death threats also turned him off from Seattle.  At that time he named the Reds, Braves, Astros, Indians, and Mets as teams he’d like to play for.  By December Griffey decided he’d only accept a trade to Cincinnati – he even vetoed a trade to the Mets.
  • If healthy, David Wells plans to pitch again in ’08.  The Padres probably wouldn’t mind having him back.
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