Mariners Backing Off On Matsuzaka?
Larry Stone has an excellent article for the Seattle Times outlining the process for Daisuke Matsuzaka. He mentions two baseball sources who indicated that the Mariners will make just a token bid for the coveted hurler. To me this info only cements the Yankees’ status as the frontrunner.
Instead, Stone mentions that Bill Bavasi might focus his money to acquire Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito.
It’s expected that Seibu will post Matsuzaka in the first or second week of November. After that teams will have four days to submit bids. MLB will notify Seibu of the winning bid amount but not the team. If the bid is accepted, a contract must be reached within 30 days.
Kei Igawa Hopes To Play On West Coast
Word from Yahoo Japan (in Japanese) tonight is that southpaw pitcher Kei Igawa would like to join a West Coast team. That probably means the Dodgers or Mariners, who have hosted such Japanese stars as Ichiro, Kenji Johjima, and Takashi Saito.
Of course, Igawa is coming to the U.S. via the posting system and doesn’t have a say in his destination. However, his preference to play on the west coast may compel Ned Colletti or Bill Bavasi to bid higher and sign Igawa to a slightly cheaper contract.
So far the Braves, Mets, and Tigers have also been connected to Igawa. The smart money is on the Dodgers or Mariners with the Mets in a distant third. However, history may go out the window as 2007 brings the largest influx of Japanese talent to the Majors yet. More and more teams are looking overseas to fill their needs.
If the Dodgers are to re-sign Greg Maddux and the Mariners miss out on Matsuzaka, Igawa seems to be destined for Seattle.
Posting Possibility: Kei Igawa
Kei Igawa is a 27 year-old southpaw with the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. He pitched 200 innings this year with a 3.11 ERA and 8.3 K/9, winning 13 games.
Igawa made a request for posting after 2005, but was denied. While Igawa hopes to be posted this winter, the Tigers’ owner seems opposed to the idea. There’s also the somewhat odd and perhaps related occurence of Igawa breaking down in tears on the mound after his final home start. If he’s not posted, Igawa will become a free agent after the 2009 season.
Reader Iwanaga Tak was kind enough to give me some info and translate this article for me. Apparently, there is a chance Igawa could be posted if Hanshin signs free agent hurler Hiroki Kuroda to replace him as their ace. American scouts haven’t shown much interest in the 31 year-old Kuroda, who is a free agent.
Speculation has Igawa’s posting fee expected to be around $10MM, a little less than Ichiro’s. If he is posted, he’d be a #3-4 type starter with a salary in the range of $3MM annually. Interested parties include the Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Braves, and Tigers. Hanshin should make a decision about posting Igawa after the Japan Series, which starts next week.
U.S.S. Mariner – Offseason Plan
A must-read: Dave Cameron’s Offseason Plan for the Mariners. Interesting ideas include pillaging the Cubs, playing Jim Edmonds in left, and trading Richie Sexson.
You can view my 2007 Team Outlook for the Ms here.
2007 Seattle Mariners
Next up, those Seattle Mariners. Many thanks to the fine Mariners blogs U.S.S. Mariner and Lookout Landing for their work. It’s always good to consult the experts before doing a writeup on their team.
Bill Bavasi’s contract obligations:
C – Kenji Johjima – $5.2MM
C – Guillermo Quiroz – $0.3275MM
1B – Richie Sexson – $14MM
2B – Jose Lopez – $0.335MM
SS – Yuniesky Betancourt – $0.4MM
3B – Adrian Beltre – $11.5MM
IF – Willie Bloomquist – $1MM
LF – Raul Ibanez – $5.5MM
CF – Ichiro Suzuki – $11MM
RF – Chris Snelling – $0.3285MM
OF – Jeremy Reed – $0.375MM
DH – Ben Broussard – $2.5MM, Eduardo Perez – club option, est. $2MM
SP –
SP – Felix Hernandez – $0.34MM
SP – Jarrod Washburn – $10MM (estimated)
SP – Jake Woods – $0.332MM
SP – Cha Seung Baek – $0.332MM
RP – J.J. Putz – $0.415MM
RP – Rafael Soriano – $0.5MM
RP – George Sherrill – $0.335MM
RP – Francisco Cruceta – $0.33MM
RP – Mark Lowe – $0.33MM
RP – Julio Mateo – $1MM
It seems that the club has roughly $70-75MM tied up for 2007. The Opening Day 2006 payroll was about $88MM. There are all sorts of ways Bavasi can prove his mettle with the ’07 club.
The catching situation is well accounted for, and that’s a feather in Bavasi’s cap. It’s probably time to let Quiroz back up Johjima, which is not a big risk because Johjima is out there almost 85% of the time.
In perusing Lookout Landing, speculation was that the Ms could attempt to trade Sexson this winter coming off a resurgent second half. Given his salary, age, and profile, that’s a fine idea. In the meantime, we’ll pencil him in.
The middle infield looks OK. Jose Lopez appeared to be breaking out this year, but pitchers adjusted and he hasn’t responded. Next year will be his age 23 season, so there’s hope for more growth. Betancourt’s stepped it up a little bit and will hopefully continue to do so as a 25 year-old.
Since June, Beltre’s been quite good at .284/.343/.521. Mark Teahen is the only 3B in the league who outhit him over that time period. Beltre could still be moved; Bavasi might get a good return given the weak free agent class.
Ibanez is solid in left, and Ichiro’s finally moved to CF to help the club. It looks like Snelling can hit like a league average RF (.287/.350/.472). It would be wise to keep Jeremy Reed around as a fourth outfielder and defensive replacement rather than deal him with his value at a low.
The Brourez DH monster hasn’t worked out well in Seattle, surprisingly. At least part of it should be back for ’07, if for nothing else than to justify the price paid for Perez and Broussard.
Skipping ahead to the bullpen – it looks like one of the game’s best and at a ridiculously low cost. If the medical staff can keep these guys healthy Mariner games will become six inning affairs.
Obviously the big need in Seattle is starting pitching. Woods and Baek should maybe be competing for the fifth slot, but both will probably struggle given full-season exposure. Both pitchers might be penciled into rotation slots to begin 2007, but it won’t end that way. In reality, the Ms need one ace and one mid-level guy to field a competitive team next year. Ryan Feierabend looks promising, but may not be ready until 2008.
Maybe the Japanese connection will help the Mariners snare Daisuke Matsuzaka, or perhaps Jason Schmidt or Adam Eaton will be persuaded to pitch near home. Getting the Japanese star in addition to Schmidt/Zito could never happen given the number of teams looking to spend money on pitching. Bavasi should do everything he can to get Matsuzaka, and then try a Miguel Batista/Byung-Hyun Kim/Jeff Weaver type as well. Last year, the Mariners came in second in an attempt to sign Wade Miller. They could renew interest this winter.
Daisuke Matsuzaka Video
A little more on Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka. Check out this video of him throwing his various pitches. It’s the best look I’ve had at his breaking ball. It might be a screwball or something weird, but let’s remember that Jeff Passan has established that it’s not a gyroball.
When we last checked in, there was a 50/50 chance of Matsuzaka being posted by the Lions. Here’s a rundown on the suitors:
This Boston Herald article informed us that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets are currently scouting Matsuzaka in Japan. As of September 11th, his numbers looked like this. Newsday tells us the Mets will be aggressive in their pursuit. The Rangers are scouting Matsuzaka as well. The Orioles expressed interest in August.
The Dodgers and Mariners are often linked to Matsuzaka, but I haven’t seen anything lately on those clubs.
Wells, Meche Giving Home Team Consideration
It’s a common refrain among impending free agents: "I’ll give my current team every chance to re-sign me before hitting the open market." Recently, it’s been Vernon Wells and Gil Meche singing that particular tune.
Here’s the thing about Wells: he’s not an impending free agent. He’ll be a free agent after 2007; he’ll earn $5.6MM next year. The standard superstar practice is to start the contract negotiations a year early. Almost as if the Blue Jays owe Wells something because he’s playing at a below-market price in 2007. Which is silly, because it was the Jays taking on the risk of giving Wells a five-year, $14.7MM contract after one full season in the bigs.
Then there’s Gil Meche, whose career year should earn him the big bucks. Among free agent starters, Meche has had the 15th best overall season so far according to Baseball Prospectus. He owns the 7th best strikeout rate, 9th best ERA, and 13th best WHIP. It’s the solid K rate and the fact that he just turned 28 that places Meche among the cream of the free agent starter crop. The downside is that he’s yet to pitch 200 innings in a season.
In case you were curious, here are the top fifteen free agent starters ranked by 2006 VORP:
1. Jason Schmidt
2. Barry Zito
3. Mike Mussina
4. Roger Clemens
5. Tom Glavine
6. Andy Pettitte
7. Miguel Batista
8. Jamie Moyer
9. Vicente Padilla
10. Greg Maddux
11. Woody Williams
12. Ted Lilly
13. Brad Radke
14. Jeff Suppan
15. Gil Meche
Gil Meche Trade In The Works?
Seattle Post-Intelligencer columnist and blogger John Hickey indicates that a trade could be brewing involving Mariners starter Gil Meche. Meche was scratched from his start against the Yankees tonight.
Meche turns 28 in a few weeks, and he’s a free agent after the season. He’s been mediocre or worse this season aside from a lights out June. Meche has been awful in August, allowing 12 earned runs in 11.1 innings in three starts. Often it’s said that his struggles are largely mental.
The skipped start could just be a demotion for the way Meche has been pitching, similar to what happened with Joel Pineiro. The Mets had expressed interest in Meche earlier this season.
Phillies Acquire Jamie Moyer
Found via RotoWorld, FSN West is reporting that the Phillies have traded for 43 year-old southpaw Jamie Moyer.
In 25 starts this year, Moyer’s been just about league average. He makes about $6.5MM this year and has been a Mariner since 1996. Last year, Moyer used his no-trade rights to block trades to Houston and Atlanta at the trading deadline.
The changeup artist has remained effective into his early 40s. Here and there, he’s been stricken by home run problems. He’s given up a lot this year while playing half his games in a ballpark that’s neutral for home runs. Safeco does deflate right-handed homers by 12%, though, and Moyer is a southpaw. Citizens Bank Park inflates home runs by 21% overall, 20% for righthanders.
The Phillies are fourth in the wild card standings, 2.5 games behind the Reds.
Will The Lions Post Daisuke Matsuzaka?
Will they or won’t they? As he would’ve been in 2005, Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka could be the best starting pitcher on the market if the Seibu Lions post him. Whether they’ll do it is still an open question.
Seattle Times reporter Larry Stone has examined the situation carefully, and it seems like a 50/50 proposition. If the Lions do decide to post him, teams must bid just for the rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka. Stone speculates that the bidding for these rights could exceed $30MM. You have to figure it would take around five years and $55 million to sign the prospective Scott Boras client after that.
For those not scoring at home, that’s the equivalent of $17MM annually for Matsuzaka. If he were to flop, it would be colossal. The two names that always come up for Matsuzaka are the Yankees and Mariners. The Yanks have the cash, and the Ms have the Japanese connection. It’s possible the Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, or Angels could get involved as well.
I wrote about Matsuzaka extensively for my fantasy baseball blog, RotoAuthority. You can scroll through that background by clicking here. At the time, it was believed Matsuzaka threw a fascinating pitch called the gyroball, which has yet to be used in the Major Leagues. However, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan debunked that myth back in March. All he had to do was ask.