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Willson Contreras’ Move To First Base Was A Success

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It was less than a year ago that the Cardinals made the decision to move three-time All-Star Willson Contreras to first base after the veteran slugger indicated he wasn’t interested in waiving his no-trade clause to leave St. Louis ahead of their impending rebuild. That decision was intended to open up the catcher position so that younger players more tied to the future of the franchise, like Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, could get reps at the position and prove themselves capable as regulars in the majors.

Getting opportunities for those young players was a sensible goal, but it didn’t come without risk. Replacing Paul Goldschmidt at first base would be a big ask for any player, and while Contreras has long been a talented hitter he’s not always been able to produce enough offensively to justify a role as an everyday first baseman. Contreras also had just 11 appearances (three starts) on his resume at the position prior to 2025, the most recent of which had come all the way back in 2019, so learning a new position would place additional challenges on the veteran as he headed into his age-33 season.

At first, the experiment looked like it was poised to be a failure. Contreras came out of the gate ice cold in 2025, with a .145/.198/.237 slash line in his first 82 trips to the plate that was difficult to stomach from a first baseman. A month into the season, more than 65% of respondents to an MLBTR poll regarding Contreras’s future suggested that he would be either a league average hitter or worse in 2025, while just 34% of respondents believed Contreras would be able to rebound to his typical numbers. Fortunately for St. Louis, Contreras managed to overcome expectations and do just that. Flash forward to the end of the season, and Contreras is now coming off a solid .257/.344/.447 campaign. His 124 wRC+ this year is right in line with his career mark of 122 and only slightly below the 129 he’s posted to this point in his Cardinals career.

While that rebound from Contreras is certainly encouraging, a 124 wRC+ from first base isn’t exactly the sort of production that one would hope for. Among baseball’s 25 qualified first baseman, Contreras ranked just 12th by wRC+ and actually wound up tied with teammate Alec Burleson, who is entering arbitration for the first time this offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Burleson for a salary of just $3.5MM in 2025, a figure that comes in well below the $36.5MM Contreras is owed over the next two years. Given that they can get similar production for much less money in-house, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Cardinals were hoping once again to trade Contreras this winter. For his part, Contreras has stated he prefers to remain in St. Louis but will at least consider waiving his no-trade clause this winter.

While Contreras’s production this year might not be commensurate with his salary now that he’s a first baseman, that doesn’t mean there’s no room for optimism. In fact, there’s plenty of positive signs in Contreras’s performance that leave the door wide open for him to deliver at a high level offensively in the coming years. From May 1 onward, Contreras hit a much more robust .268/.357/.480 with a wRC+ of 136. That’s good for the fifth-highest wRC+ in baseball among first basemen during that period, behind only Nick Kurtz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Olson, and Michael Busch.

Many players would look a great deal more impressive if you ignored their worst month of the year, of course, but Contreras’s underlying numbers reveal reason for further optimism. The veteran’s .369 xwOBA this season is more or less in line with his numbers since his offensive breakout season in 2022, and a near perfect match for the .370 wOBA he posted in 2024. That performance came with a wRC+ of 141, and there’s at least some reason to believe he could match that performance again in the future.

Contreras’s 13.8% barrel rate and 48.9% hard-hit rate this year were both career highs despite a .190 ISO that was one of the weakest of his career. That drop in ISO and walk rate that dropped to just 7.8% this year were the weakest parts of Contreras’s profile as a hitter this season, and a look at his swing decisions this year reveals the cause of that flaw. Contreras’s contact rate spiked to 73.6% this year, the highest its been since 2018. That’s not a bad thing in isolation, but digging a little deeper reveals that almost all of that improvement came on pitches outside of the strike zone, while he actually swung at pitches inside the zone far less often than he had in the past. Contreras took a swing at just 65.7% of pitches in the strike zone this year, a nearly four-point drop from the previous three seasons.

With Contreras’s impressive underlying power metrics this year, it’s certainly possible that being more aggressive on pitches inside the strike zone could allow him to access more of that power in games than he did this year. Even if that adjustment doesn’t come, however, one major feather in Contreras’s cap is his work with the glove at first base this year. Despite learning the position on the fly this past winter, the veteran posted +6 Outs Above Average this season. Just three first basemen (Olson, Ty France, and Carlos Santana) beat that mark this season, and it stands to reason that Contreras could build on his performance next year now that he has more experience under his belt.

Whether Contreras ultimately ends up finishing out his contract with the Cardinals in St. Louis or getting traded at some point over the next two seasons, it’s hard to view the contract as anything other than a success for the club. In the first four seasons of his five year deal with the organization, Contreras has hit .261/.358/.459 (129 wRC+) with 8.2 fWAR and 8.9 bWAR in 344 games for the Cardinals despite injuries and multiple moves off of his natural position. While the incoming ABS challenge system next year and the lack of catching depth around the league could make the idea of Contreras moving back behind the plate appealing for some potential suitors on the trade market, Contreras proved himself to be a quality first baseman in 2025 and should be able to provide value in that role regardless of if he does so in St. Louis or elsewhere.

Looking For A Match In A Sonny Gray Trade

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The Cardinals are entering what could be a multi-year rebuilding period where they focus more on strengthening their farm system and player development apparatus than winning games at the major league level. That’s a pivot that started last winter, but a number of key veteran players with no-trade clauses wanted to stick with the organization for the 2025 season and try to win in St. Louis. With a 78-84 season in the books and Chaim Bloom having now officially taken over John Mozeliak’s spot atop the baseball operations department, however, those same veterans are softening their stance about the possibility of a trade.

Perhaps the most interesting of those veteran is right-hander Sonny Gray, who is entering the final year of his contract in 2026. Gray is coming off a down season and will turn 36 in November, but his 4.28 ERA in 32 starts this year was still right around league average with much stronger peripheral numbers than that. He struck out 26.7% of his opponents, walked just 5.0%, and had the sixth-lowest SIERA in baseball among qualified starters this year with a 3.29 figure that clocked in behind only Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Cristopher Sanchez, Paul Skenes, and Logan Webb.

That’s good company to keep, considering that all five of those players well might end up as finalists for their respective league’s Cy Young award this year, and should help to assuage concerns about Gray’s ability to compete at a high level in his mid-30s. Few pitchers have a recent track record more impressive than the veteran right-hander, all things considered. In 116 starts since the beginning of the 2022 season, Gray has a 3.53 ERA, a 26.6% strikeout rate, and a 3.17 FIP in 650 2/3 innings of work. It’s the sort of production that virtually any team could use in their rotation, but there are complicating factors in considering a trade for Gray.

The right-hander has a full no-trade clause that he has the ability to wield as he sees fit, and Gray is due a $35MM salary in 2026 with a $5MM buyout on a 2027 mutual option. That’s a hefty salary that a good number of clubs simply won’t be able to stomach, and the fact that Gray has shown a preference for pitching in smaller markets throughout his career could mean he’d wield his no-trade clause against some of the larger market franchises that could stomach his salary. The Cardinals are open to paying down salary in trades this winter, but it’s unclear if they’d be willing to pay down enough of it to get smaller market clubs into the mix for Gray’s services.

Which clubs are the best fits for St. Louis’s veteran hurler? Here’s a look at nine potential suitors, listed alphabetically within tiers:

Best Fits

  • Braves: One of the clear best fits for Gray’s services is Atlanta, who were reportedly in on Gray when he was a free agent two offseasons ago. Since then, the Braves have struggled to stay healthy and even fell out of the playoff picture this year due in large part to a rotation that was desperately missing Max Fried’s stabilizing presence after he left for the Yankees last winter. Atlanta has never been the sort of club to go out and spend hundreds of millions on an ace in free agency, so unless they change course this year they’ll need to get creative to add some certainty to a rotation that saw all of its established starters spend significant time on the injured list this year. Bringing Gray into the fold could be just that sort of creativity, and Alex Anthopoulos has long been comfortable bringing in veterans (like Marcell Ozuna, Josh Donaldson, and Charlie Morton) on short-term deals with high salaries.
  • Giants: The Giants are going to need more than just Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, and Landen Roupp in their rotation next year, and Gray would make plenty of sense for that role. Gray was actually connected to San Francisco back in September as a potential trade target. Some of that report was based on Gray’s connection with former Giants manager Bob Melvin, who has since been fired, but the Giants are still one of the few clubs that could stomach most of Gray’s salary within their expected budget. Gray also had plenty of success pitching for the A’s in Oakland, so a return to the Bay Area might have appeal to him even without Melvin in the fold.
  • Orioles: The Orioles, much like the Braves, found themselves pushed out of contention early this year due in large part to a lack of pitching depth. There’s virtually no certainty in the club’s 2026 rotation outside of Trevor Rogers, and president of baseball operations Mike Elias has shown a strong preference towards short-term additions when bringing in players who make significant dollars. That could make Gray a sensible fit following a season where Baltimore paid more than $41MM combined to Tomoyuki Sugano, Zach Eflin, and Morton for lackluster performances. While the Orioles are a lower budget club than most of the teams mentioned here, St. Louis’s willingness to eat salary could make Gray less of a financial burden than comparable arms in free agency.

Next Tier Down

  • Athletics: Gray played for the Athletics in Oakland for parts of five seasons after they took him 18th overall in the 2011 draft. In that time, he posted a 3.42 ERA and 3.56 FIP across 705 innings of work. Gray was eventually dealt to the Yankees, and in the years since then the A’s have been uprooted from Oakland and moved to West Sacramento. That move came with a raised payroll and a more sincere attempt to compete than previous rebuilding years, however, and a hitting core of Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, and Tyler Soderstrom looks ready to compete in the playoffs. What they’ll need to make that happen is pitching, and Gray has front-of-the-rotation upside and experience playing in unfriendly pitching environments like Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark. Perhaps if Gray was available last offseason, the A’s would’ve been a more sensible fit, but as it stands it’s unclear if the A’s intend to continue scaling up payroll after last season’s spending brought them an 86-loss campaign.
  • Padres: No team comes to mind more quickly than the Padres when discussing creative trade proposals, and that’s entirely thanks to the efforts of president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. Preller is by far the most active and aggressive executive in baseball, and this winter he’ll be tasked with replacing Dylan Cease and Michael King at the top of the rotation despite a relative lack of budget space. Adding someone like Gray to the rotation alongside Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Randy Vasquez, and JP Sears would be a huge help in stabilizing things, but there are clear obstacles here. For one thing, the Cardinals would likely need to be willing to eat the overwhelming majority of Gray’s salary in order to facilitate a deal with San Diego. That would mean a rather high prospect cost for the Padres, and while Preller is never shy about trading prospects his push at this summer’s trade deadline has left those cupboards somewhat barren. What’s more, Gray would be controlled for just the 2026 season, and Preller usually prioritizing trades for controllable players over rentals.
  • Dodgers: When it comes to spending money, there are few (if any) teams in baseball who can do so with the same reckless abandon as the Dodgers. Their payroll this season approached $400MM and it should surprise no one if it ends up in a similar place next season. While their rotation of Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani is currently powering them through the postseason, the injury concerns in that group are obvious and the depth behind that quartet is taking a hit with Clayton Kershaw’s impending retirement. Adding a reliable workhorse like Gray would make plenty of sense, and the Dodgers are one of the few clubs that could reasonably take on most if not all of Gray’s salary without much issue. On the other hand, the Dodgers aren’t exactly the sort of small market club Gray has typically preferred to play for over the years, which could be a problem depending on how aggressive he is in using his no-trade clause.

Long Shots:

  • Cubs: On paper, the Cubs might seem like an excellent fit for Gray. The club appears likely to pursue pitching help this winter after injuries to Justin Steele and Cade Horton left them shorthanded this postseason, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has shown a proclivity towards shorter-term additions with higher salaries, and Chicago’s status as a midwest city could be attractive to Gray for the purposes of his no-trade clause considering his previous decisions to sign in Cincinnati, Minnesota, and St. Louis. With all of that said, the biggest obstacle to this sort of trade is that the Cubs and Cardinals have one of the biggest rivalries in the sport and very rarely trade with each other. Perhaps Bloom taking over as president of baseball operations could help thaw that trade embargo, given that he and Brian Cashman executed what was then just the second Yankees/Red Sox trade of the 21st century back in 2021, but it would still be a shock to see the teams line up on a trade of this magnitude.
  • Mets:  The Mets are a team with plenty of willingness to spend money, a major need in the rotation, and a strong preference for bringing pitchers in on relatively short-term contracts. That all would make them seem like an obvious fit for Gray, but it’s fair to wonder how the right-hander’s previous stint in New York could impact interest on both sides. Gray’s 4.51 ERA in parts of two seasons with the Yankees was the worst stretch of his career. It would be understandable if Gray wasn’t interested in returning to New York at this point in his career, even for a different franchise, and it’s equally possible that the Mets would shy away from a pitcher who previously struggled in the sport’s largest media market.
  • Reds: It was with the Reds that Gray turned his career around after leaving New York, and he pitched to a 3.49 ERA across three seasons in Cincinnati. He signed an extension with the club once before, so his no-trade clause would likely be a non-issue, and the Reds were connected to him both during his last trip through free agency and even on the trade market last year. It would stand to reason that there could be some interest between the two sides once again, but the Reds’ limited budget makes a trade hard to envision given that they already have a rotation of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Brady Singer, and Nick Lodolo locked in for 2026 with youngsters like Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder also in the mix for starts. Whatever budget space Cincinnati has available this winter seems likely to be better used elsewhere on the roster, barring a trade of another arm that creates an opening.

Cardinals Announce Surgery For Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Ivan Herrera

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A trio of Cardinals underwent surgical procedures in recent weeks, the team announced Friday. Lars Nootbaar had surgery on both heels, and Brendan Donovan underwent a sports hernia repair on October 7. Ivan Herrera had surgery on his elbow to remove bone spurring on Oct. 15. John Denton of MLB.com was among those to report that Nootbaar’s procedure was to shave down Haglund’s deformities. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch was among those to note that the recovery timetables are uncertain.

Nootbaar is coming off his healthiest big-league season. The 28-year-old played a career-high 135 games and topped 500 plate appearances for just the second time. Nootbaar missed a few weeks at the end of July with a rib injury, but that was his only IL stint. He was also sidelined for a brief stretch in August with a knee issue.

While Nootbaar stayed on the field in 2025, he struggled to produce at the plate. He slashed an underwhelming .234/.325/.361, resulting in a career-low 96 wRC+. Nootbaar maintained his solid plate discipline numbers, but he fell off significantly in the power department. His .361 SLG was a career-worst by more than 50 points, and his .128 ISO was unbefitting of a corner outfielder.

Nootbaar is arbitration-eligible this offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $5.7MM salary.

Donovan dealt with multiple injuries in 2025, with a groin strain in August costing him the most time. He initially tried to play through the injury, but eventually landed on the IL. Donovan appeared in just eight games over the final few weeks of the regular season.

The injuries capped what was shaping up to be a career season for Donovan. He hit .329 through May, before a turf toe issue popped up. Donovan earned a trip to the All-Star game and still had an OPS near .800 heading into the break. His numbers trailed off from there, but the final line was strong. Donovan finished with career-best marks in batting average and slugging percentage to go with an excellent 119 wRC+.

Donovan is also heading to arbitration. Swartz projected him for a $5.4MM salary, just behind Nootbaar.

Herrera battled several injuries himself this season, though the elbow issue is his first of the upper-body variety. He missed most of April with knee inflammation, then a hamstring strain cost him three more weeks in the summer.

A three-homer game put Herrera on the map in the first week of the season. He piled up 11 RBI in the Cardinals’ first seven games. Herrera continued to mash after the knee injury, maintaining an OPS over .900 before the hamstring injury. He scuffled in July and August, but bounced back with a massive September. Herrera wrapped up his first full big-league season with a strong .284/.373/.464 slash line. He’s been a standout at the plate whenever given the opportunity. He even saw some outfield reps this past season as St. Louis tried to find ways to get him in the lineup.

The Cardinals have several options behind the plate, which made it easier for Herrera to spend the majority of his time at DH. A potential trade could clear out some of that depth, but Herrera should find regular at-bats in the Cardinals’ lineup next year, whether at catcher or DH.

Cardinals Have Received Trade Interest In Catching Depth

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“Other teams have asked about” the many catchers in the Cardinals organization, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch wrote as part of a lengthy chat with readers.  No specific names are mentioned, yet since youngsters Jimmy Crooks, and Leonardo Bernal seem pretty untouchable at the moment, Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages, and Yohel Pozo are the likelier trade candidates, to varying degrees.

While the focus of the Cards’ offseason will be moving veteran talent and creating opportunities for young players, the wide-ranging nature of this rebuild means that president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom is likely to explore every possible avenue for upgrading the roster.  Given this youth movement, it is safe to assume that Bernal and Crooks aren’t going anywhere, unless Bloom swings a relatively rare prospect-for-prospect type of swap.  The Cardinals could conceivably package one of their own prospects along with a higher-priced veteran (i.e. Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray) to convince a rival club to take on more salary, yet dealing a well-regarded prospect just to save money isn’t happening unless the other team also offers a good prospect package that can more broadly address the Cards’ needs.

MLB Pipeline ranks Bernal as the 92nd-best prospect in baseball, and the fourth-best prospect in the St. Louis farm system.  As Goold notes, the Cardinals will have to add him to the 40-man roster to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, so Bernal’s inclusion would give the Cards five backstops on their 40-man.  Goold suggests that Pozo will be the odd man out, perhaps designated for assignment and then re-signed by the Cardinals to a minor league contract.  Such a move would allow St. Louis to free up a 40-man spot and keep Pozo all at once, though a trade or waiver claim is a possibility in that scenario.

Crooks was ranked as the sixth-best Cardinals prospect and outside Pipeline’s league-wide top-100, though he received some top-100 attention from Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs this year.  Crooks also made his MLB debut this season, but did very little at the plate in batting .133/.152/.244 over his first 46 plate appearances in the Show.  He has hit considerably better in the minors (including a .274/.337/.441 slash line in 430 PA in Triple-A), but Crooks is generally viewed as a glove-first type of catcher.

Beyond this duo, the Cardinals also have Rainiel Rodriguez, the 18-year-old who finished the season in high-A ball and who ranks 55th on Pipeline’s top-100 list.  It isn’t hard to view Rodriguez, Bernal, and Crooks within a broad “catcher of the future” category, which naturally creates questions about how the Cards could approach the catchers currently on the big league roster.

It should be noted that none of Herrera, Pages, or Pozo are exactly seasoned vets.  Herrera won’t become arbitration-eligible until next offseason and he is controlled through 2029, while Pages is controlled through 2030.  If Pozo is possibly DFA fodder, that alone could clear up the catching backlog to some extent, but could the Cardinals go a step further and move Herrera or Pages to create playing time for Crooks?

Describing Herrera as a catcher is perhaps a topic of debate unto itself, as he suited up behind the plate in only 14 games this season.  Herrera missed time due a bone bruise in his left knee and then a Grade 2 hamstring strain, plus he was slated for offseason surgery to remove loose bodies from his throwing elbow.  These health issues led the Cardinals to make Herrera their primary DH, and he also made a few cameo appearances in left field.

The team’s plan is for Herrera to spend the offseason healing up, and then to return in Spring Training as a viable catcher once again.  There were some questions about Herrera’s long-term ability to stick at catcher even before his injury-plagued 2025 season, but there’s no doubt he can hit.  Herrera batted .284/.373/.464 with 19 home runs over 452 plate appearances this year, and his 137 wRC+ was the 16th-best of any player in the league with at least 450 PA.

Moving such a potent and controllable bat this early in the rebuild process doesn’t seem too likely for Bloom, unless a major asset could be obtained in return.  If the Cardinals still have misgivings about Herrera’s defense, that could leave the door open a crack for a possible trade, yet it is fair to guess that Herrera is pretty far down the list of Bloom’s potential trade chips.

Pages ended up becoming the Cards’ primary catcher in 2025, and his profile is basically the opposite of Herrera.  Pages has hit only .233/.275/.368 over 607 career PA in the majors, but he is a superb defender in every aspect of catching except his blocking work.  This could appeal to clubs looking to improve their glovework behind the plate, though Yadier Molina’s shadow runs long in St. Louis, and the Cardinals themselves have long prioritized having strong catcher defense.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals officially have a new head of baseball operations for the first time in nearly two decades. As announced at the beginning of last offseason, longtime president of baseball ops John Mozeliak has stepped aside and passed the torch to former Rays and Red Sox executive Chaim Bloom, who'd previously been a senior advisor with the Cardinals. Bloom's end-of-season press conference spelled out what had already become abundantly clear over the past 12 months: this will be an offseason unlike any the Cardinals have experienced in recent memory -- the onset of what's likely to be a yearslong rebuild.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $42MM through 2027 (Rockies paying $5MM)
  • Willson Contreras, 1B: $41MM through 2027 (includes buyout of 2028 club option)
  • Sonny Gray, RHP: $40MM through 2026 (includes buyout of 2027 club option)

2026 guarantees: $75MM
Total long-term guarantees: $117.5MM through 2027

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Alcala, King

Free Agents

For the early portion of last offseason, it seemed quite possible that the Cardinals would embark on the very type of rebuild that now seems far likelier. Instead, no-trade clauses in the contracts of veterans Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras threw a wrench into those plans. Gray and Contreras seemed unfazed by the idea of a youth movement and quickly let the team know they were content to remain in St. Louis. Arenado was open to trade scenarios but to a limited number of clubs. He wound up vetoing a trade to the Astros and remaining in St. Louis.

This time around, it seems overwhelmingly likely that at least one of those veterans will change hands. Gray candidly said after his final start that he has to consider trade scenarios this winter after talking to Bloom about the direction of the team. Contreras has said his preference is still to remain in St. Louis but he'll consider waiving his no-trade protection in the right scenario. Arenado has voiced his intent to be more open to a wider array of teams this time around.

That said, there are prominent hurdles when it comes to trading everyone from the group, and there's ample reason to wonder just how much -- if anything at all -- the Cardinals can get back in return for any of those pricey veterans. They're reportedly open to paying down some of the remaining salary (which will be a necessity), but if they really want to extract meaningful prospect value, there are more notable trade avenues to explore.

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Report: Cardinals Ownership More Willing To Include Money In Trades

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Everything coming out of St. Louis suggests that the Cardinals are at a major pivot point for the franchise. They are entering what could be a multi-year rebuild period as they focus on player development more than short-term contention. That has been the case for about a year already but all signs suggest the club will be leaning harder in that direction. Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that the ownership will now be more willing to eat money in trades, in order to extract greater returns.

That reporting aligns with comments this week from Chaim Bloom, the new president of baseball operations. “As far as cash being a lever on the trade front, that should never be off the table,” he said, per Woo. “Obviously, you’d prefer not to do that, but you could end up in a situation where adding cash to make a preferred deal work just makes sense.”

Between Bloom’s comments and Woo’s reporting about ownership, it seems the franchise is aligned. That should only add to the sense that highly-paid players like Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray are more likely to be moved this offseason than they were last winter.

A year ago, the Cards made it clear that they were beginning this reset period. That initially made it seem likely that veteran players like Arenado, Gray and Willson Contreras could be logical trade candidates. However, Gray and Contreras quickly indicated that they wanted to stay in St. Louis. Arenado was a bit more open to a trade but had a narrow list of five clubs he considered acceptable landing spots and ultimately wasn’t traded.

The club’s rebuilding plans now seem to be more firmly in place and both Arenado and Gray have publicly expressed a greater willingness to waive their no-trade clauses this time around. Contreras seems less interested in leaving but didn’t completely discount the possibility.

That’s a good start for the Cardinals but eating money will be helpful to getting deals done. Gray is still a good pitcher and just wrapped a solid season, middling earned run average notwithstanding. Though he allowed 4.28 earned runs per nine over 180 2/3 innings, his .329 batting average on balls in play probably inflated that a bit. His 26.7% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate and 43.9% ground ball rate were all strong marks. ERA estimators like his 3.39 FIP and 3.29 SIERA suggest he was more his old self than the ERA itself would indicate.

Even if clubs are willing to overlook the ERA, the contract is an obstacle. His three-year, $75MM deal with the Cardinals was heavily backloaded. He made just $10MM in 2024 and $25MM this year. He’ll then make $35MM next year, followed by a $5MM buyout on a $30MM club option. If that option is picked up, Gray can then opt out.

At this point, there is just one more guaranteed season left on the deal but with $40MM still to be paid out. The option doesn’t really add any extra upside because of that opt-out. Despite Gray’s talents, $40MM for one year of a pitcher is a lot. That kind of average annual value has been reserved for ace-type pitchers. Even if it were a fair price for Gray’s services, eating more money to extract more prospect capital is a sensible tactic for a club focused on the long term.

Arenado is going to make $27MM next year, though the Rockies are going to pay $5MM of that and $6MM is deferred. He’ll then make $15MM in 2027. That works out to less than $20MM annually but his stock is down after some rough years at the plate. He hit just .237/.289/.377 for a wRC+ of 84 this year and was barely above league average in the prior two campaigns. He still gets good grades for his glovework but isn’t the MVP candidate he once was.

Other teams will have different valuations of what they expect from him going forward, but as mentioned with Gray, any money that the Cardinals are willing to eat should increase what teams are willing to give up.

With Contreras, as mentioned, a trade seems less likely before even considering the money but it could happen. He is still owed $41.5MM over the next two years. That’s an $18MM salary next year, $18.5MM in 2027, and then a $5MM buyout on a $17.5MM club option for 2028.

He has been moved from the catcher position to first base. He got decent grades for his glovework there this year, getting credit for six Outs Above Average, while Defensive Runs Saved had him just below par at -1. The bat is still strong, as he hit .257/.344/.447 this year for a 124 wRC+. Those numbers are all close to his career marks, where he has a .258/.352/.459 batting line and 122 wRC+.

Though he’s going into his age-34 season, the deal isn’t bad. Christian Walker just got $60MM over three years from the Astros going into his age-34 campaign. But even if the Contreras deal isn’t underwater, other teams may not give up much for it unless the Cards pay it down somewhat.

Last winter, the Cards seemed to be more motivated by salary relief. Arenado was still owed roughly $60MM over three years when they lined up a trade with the Astros. Arenado vetoed that deal but reporting indicated the Cards were only going to eat about $5MM per season, leaving the Astros on the hook for about $45MM. It’s unknown what the Cards were going to receive in that trade but is was likely going to be a salary dump deal. Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. later said they would have to find cuts elsewhere if they didn’t move Arenado, though that didn’t really end up happening.

Per RosterResource, the Cardinals had a $144MM payroll in 2025. Thanks to some trades and some expiring contracts, they are projected for just $75MM next year. Arbitration salaries for players like Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar could push that up but those players are themselves candidates to be traded this winter. Perhaps that lighter payroll is what opened the path for the Cards to worry less about cost savings this time, which could increase their chances of adding meaning young talent to their pipeline.

There will be non-payroll expenditures, however. Woo reports that the club is planning to make more investments in the fields of analytics, player development and scouting. There’s also some uncertainty with the club’s TV deal. The Cards reached a new agreement with Main Street Sports, formerly known as Diamond Sports Group, to be on the FanDuel Sports Network in 2025. Woo writes that the deal contains option provisions after each season. She says that no major shake-up is expected but that some renegotiations could take place.

Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images

MLBTR Podcast: Mike Elias On The State Of The Orioles

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias to discuss…

  • Elias’s promotion from general manager to president of baseball operations (1:45)
  • Why the Orioles underperformed in 2025 (3:30)
  • The club’s lack of investment in free agent pitching (5:25)
  • The decision making about playing time for prospects when they don’t find immediate big league success (9:20)
  • How Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo can co-exist on the roster (12:35)
  • Getting six prospects from the Padres in the Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Laureano trade (14:50)
  • Trading Bryan Baker to the Rays for a draft pick (16:55)
  • Seeing the potential in O’Hearn before his breakout (18:45)

Plus, Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors joins the show to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Tim Heitman, Imagn Images

Chaim Bloom Discusses Marmol, GM, Arenado, Gray

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Chaim Bloom was officially introduced as Cardinals president of baseball operations at a press conference on Tuesday morning. He takes control at a time when multiple reports have suggested they’re moving to a rebuild that’ll put Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and others back in trade rumors.

While Bloom pointedly avoided the term “rebuild,” his meeting with the media did little to dispel the overall notion. “We have talent here. We have more talent coming, and we have some of the makings of that core, but we need more. Our top priority will be to build our talent base for the long term,” he told reporters (link via Katie Woo of The Athletic). “That may mean hard decisions and short-term sacrifices, but to get where we want to go, we can’t take shortcuts — and we won’t.” Bloom subsequently added that while they’ll “hunt moves and decisions that allow (them to win) right now,” the focus will be on the long term if they need “to choose between short-term gratification and our bigger goal of contending consistently.”

None of that comes as a surprise. Arenado, Gray and Contreras have all confirmed they’d spoken to Bloom late in the season and understood where the organization was going. That’s the impetus for all three players saying they’re willing to consider waiving their no-trade clauses in the right circumstances (though Contreras said he’d still prefer to stay and be a veteran mentor).

Oliver Marmol will continue to oversee things in the dugout. Bloom confirmed the manager will be back for a fifth season (relayed by Derrick Goold of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Marmol is under contract through the end of next season. Bloom indicated there haven’t been any extension talks to date but didn’t dismiss the possibility of having those conversations at some point.

There’s also an uncertain timeline on the club’s GM hire. Former general manager Michael Girsch was reassigned to vice president of special projects last offseason — a move that came in conjunction with the team’s announcement that Bloom would replace John Mozeliak as baseball operations president going into 2026. Bloom will eventually hire his own top lieutenant with the GM title but indicated that might not happen this offseason (via Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat).

Of course, most of the focus will be on the team’s expected roster turnover. The Cardinals will be motivated to try to trade Arenado, who is signed for two more seasons. They’re on the hook for $22MM of next season’s $27MM salary (though another $6MM of that is deferred) and his entire $15MM deal for 2027. They’d need to pay down the bulk of the money given Arenado’s declining offensive production. Bloom spoke of a general openness to kicking in cash in the right trades but definitively shot down the idea that they might simply release Arenado if no trade presented itself.

St. Louis would also need to eat some money on Gray. That’s less an indictment on the right-hander’s performance than a reflection of his contract structure. His three-year, $75MM free agent deal was heavily backloaded. Gray will make $35MM next season and is guaranteed a $5MM buyout on a $30MM option for 2027. It’s a $40MM commitment for one year, the kind of salary that has been reserved for late-career aces who were still performing at Cy Young levels (e.g. Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Zack Wheeler).

Gray remains a very good pitcher but isn’t at that level. Assuming the Cardinals are willing to eat some of the money, there’d be plenty of teams intrigued by the idea of adding Gray to the rotation. The three-time All-Star has already acknowledged he’s willing to think about waiving his no-trade clause. Bloom said the front office will “see what’s out there, and if there’s something that could make sense for us that furthers our goals that he also wants to do, then we’ll explore” trade possibilities (via Woo).

However, he contrasted Gray’s situation with Arenado’s and implied that the Cardinals are a little less motivated to trade the former. “With Sonny, the situation is a bit different in that we do have a clear fit for him here,” Bloom said. Even in a non-competitive year, the Cardinals will need some level of veteran presence in the rotation. They’re not going to keep Gray for that reason alone, but they’ll already have ample opportunity for pitchers like Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy and Kyle Leahy to stake claims to rotation spots. The Cards aren’t going to be major players in free agency, but Bloom said they’ll be in the market for pitching depth in both the starting staff and the bullpen.

Willson Contreras Will Consider Waiving No-Trade Clause But Prefers To Remain With Cardinals

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Willson Contreras’ five-year, $87.5MM contract with the Cardinals included a full no-trade clause for the first four seasons, and Contreras indicated after last season that he wasn’t willing to consent to a deal.  The first baseman has slightly changed his stance now, telling reporters (including MLB.com’s Jeff Jones) that still wants to remain in St. Louis, but is willing to consider waiving his no-trade protection.

“If something comes up to [president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom] that makes a lot of sense for him and the organization, and it makes sense for me and my future, how about we talk about that?” Contreras said.  “But as of right now, I would just like to be part of the [rebuilding] process.”

Contreras noted that he isn’t requesting a trade, and already shared his thoughts about staying with the club in a meeting with Bloom on Friday.  “I’d like to be a part of a young team that needs to have some kind of experience around them.  That’s what I expressed, but I understand the part of the business of the team, and we just came to an agreement there,” the first baseman said.

We’ve already seen Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado each indicate that they’d be more open to waiving their own no-trade protection this winter, in the wake of the incoming Cardinals rebuild.  Gray is under contract just through the 2026 season but at the hefty price tag of $40MM ($35MM in backloaded salary and at least $5MM in a buyout of a club option for 2027).  Arenado is owed $42MM through the 2027 season, though that number is reduced by deferred money and $5MM from the Rockies as per the terms of the trade that sent Arenado from Colorado to St. Louis.

Contreras is just finishing the third season of his five-year deal, and he is owed $41.5MM in remaining salary — $18MM in 2026, $18.5MM in 2027, and there is a $5MM buyout of a $17.5MM club option for 2028.  Of these three pricey St. Louis veterans, Contreras brings less of a one-off luxury tax hit than Gray, and he has been a much more effective hitter than Arenado over the last three seasons.

A right shoulder strain ended Contreras’ 2025 season earlier in September, so his season numbers stand at 20 homers and a .257/.344/.447 slash line across 563 plate appearances.  Contreras’ time with the Cardinals has been largely defined by the team’s downturn in performance and the defensive questions that led to his move from catcher to first base, but the veteran has continued to hit — he has batted .261/.358/.459 over 1416 PA in a Cardinals uniform, which translates to a 129 wRC+.

Those numbers play better from the catcher position than at first base, so hypothetically, a trade suitor might have interest in shifting Contreras back into at least a part-time role behind the plate.  Given the lack of catching depth around the league, a team might also have more interest in taking on more of Contreras’ salary if he is being deployed to fill a larger hole at catcher than at first base.

As Jones observes, trading Contreras would allow the Cardinals to find more playing time for multiple players on the roster.  Alec Burleson would likely take over most of the time at first base, which in turns opens up at-bats at DH and in the outfield for others.

That said, Contreras ultimately has the final word due to his contract.  His full no-trade protection only lasts through 2026, as Contreras can then submit a no-trade list of 10 teams.  The Cardinals could conceivably stick with Contreras through the coming season and then perhaps look more seriously at trade talks next winter, when the team will have slightly more freedom in working out a deal with at least 19 teams.

Even if Contreras has left the door slightly ajar to a trade, he made it clear that he is happy in St. Louis and would embrace the idea of helping mentor a new generation of Cardinals.

“I understand that it might take three to five years to have a playoff team or a team that can contend to the World Series, and I said even if I don’t make it there, and you guys make it to a World Series, I feel like I can be proud of that, just because I want to help young guys to better develop and have a better idea of what baseball is besides going to analyze stats,” Contreras said.

Nolan Arenado More Open To Waiving No-Trade Clause As Cardinals Plan To Rebuild

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Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado is becoming more open to the possibility of waiving his no-trade clause. “I think I have to be,” Arenado said to Katie Woo of The Athletic. “That’s something I’ll discuss with my agent and my family.” Right-hander Sonny Gray made similar comments to the media this week.

The signs coming out of St. Louis indicate that major changes are on the horizon. Woo reported last week that many within the organization have been told to expect the club to embark on a multi-year rebuild with significant roster turnover.

It was around this time a year ago that the first signs of a major shift came to light. In late September of last year, the Cards announced that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak would be stepping down after the 2025 season. He would be replaced by Chaim Bloom, though Bloom would spend the 2025 season overhauling the club’s player development systems.

The Cards planned to cut payroll coming into this season but found that hard to do. Players like Gray and Willson Contreras were unwilling to waive their no-trade clauses and be sent out of St. Louis. Arenado was a bit more open to the possibility but gave the Cards a list of five clubs he would approve a trade to: the Dodgers, Yankees, Padres, Red Sox and Astros.

The Cards and Astros did line up on a deal at one point but Arenado used his no-trade clause to block it. At the time, the Astros had just traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Arenado said he was open to joining the Astros but wanted more clarity on their post-Tucker plans. No deal eventually came together and he stayed a Cardinal.

The 2025 season opened with the Cards having done very little in the winter. The lack of trades was also accompanied by a lack of free agent activity. Their only big league deal was a $2MM guarantee for reliever Phil Maton.

They used the campaign to evaluate younger players without finding much success. Iván Herrera hit well but some injuries and shaky defense led to him spending most of the year as a designated hitter. Jordan Walker got almost everyday playing time but struck out in 31.9% of his plate appearances and slashed .215/.275/.299 for a 63 wRC+. Nolan Gorman also got lots of playing time but found similar results, with a 33.1% strikeout rate, .204/.297/.372 line and 88 wRC+. Victor Scott II can run and play the field but provided subpar offense. Masyn Winn’s offense declined, though that may have been related to his knee injury.

There were disappointments on the pitching side as well. Matthew Liberatore got 29 starts with pedestrian results, including a 4.21 earned run average and 18.8% strikeout rate. Andre Pallante had a passable first half with a 4.49 ERA but has a 6.64 ERA in the second half. Michael McGreevy’s 91 innings resulted in a 4.35 ERA. With those underwhelming performances and others, the club has produced a middling 78-81 record thus far.

While the Cards ended up largely standing pat last winter, it now appears they are firmly picking the rebuild lane. Woo says many in the organization expect the rebuild to take at least two to three years. As such, it’s understandable that players like Gray and Arenado would be more open to getting out of the way. Gray is about to turn 36 years old and has just one guaranteed year left on his deal. Though he may not want to uproot his family, from an on-field perspective, it would surely be preferable to go to a club planning to win.

Along similar lines, Arenado will be turning 35 in April and is only signed through 2027. “I think the discussion I’ll have with my agent for sure is that the list will be different,” Arenado said this week, referring back to last year’s five-team list. “I would really like this not to go the way it did last year,” Arenado said. “At some point, I’ll talk to Chaim, and then we’ll hopefully have a good plan on how we need to approach it. I’ll be very open about it, and I know he will too.”

What’s unclear is how much interest other clubs will actually have in Arenado. His fielding is still graded as solid but he’s coming off his worst full-season offensive performance since he was a 22-year-old rookie. He slashed .236/.289/.371 this year for a wRC+ of 82, indicating he was 18% below average at the plate.

“The way I played this year, it looks old and washed,” Arenado said. “But I don’t feel that way. My defense is still there. I’m seeing the ball fine. There are some things where my body isn’t in the right spot, and I need to get it there because I still feel like I can be a really impactful player.”

That performance doesn’t pair well with his contract. He is going to make $27MM next year. The Rockies are covering $5MM of that and there are deferrals, but it’s still a hefty commitment. He’ll then make $15MM in 2027 as well.

Even putting aside the complication of Arenado’s no-trade, the Cardinals would surely have to eat a decent chunk of that money to facilitate a deal. It’s unclear if they would prefer to simply jettison as much of the commitment as possible or if they would rather eat even more in order to secure a notable prospect return.

There are potential ramifications elsewhere on the roster as well. In Woo’s reporting from last week, she brings up the possibility of players like Lars Nootbaar or Brendan Donovan being available in trades this winter. Both players are can be controlled via arbitration through the 2027 season. If the Cards are indeed embarking on a multi-year rebuild, it makes sense to listen on players who are only controlled for two more seasons.

Nootbaar is wrapping up a down year at the plate. The outfielder came into 2025 with a career .246/.348/.425 batting line and 116 wRC+. This year, he has a .237/.326/.366 line and 97 wRC+. That obviously cuts into his appeal but presumably there are clubs who would bet on a bounceback. He is making $2.95MM this year and will get a bump in the next two years.

Donovan’s production has been more steady. He has a career .282/.361/.411 line and 119 wRC+. This year’s .287/.353/.422 line and 118 wRC+ are right around his normal range. He also provides defensive versatility, with experience at all four infield spots as well as the outfield corners. He is making $2.85MM this year. The affordability and positional flexibility make him a fit on almost any club.

Other trade possibilities could arise this winter as well. As mentioned, Contreras didn’t want to waive his no-trade clause last offseason, but perhaps he will follow the path of Gray and Arenado in becoming more open to it. He’s been moved off the catcher position but can still hit. Alec Burleson is controlled for three more seasons, slightly longer than Donovan and Nootbaar, but is coming off a nice breakout campaign which could allow the Cards to sell high. Herrera is still controlled for four more seasons but the questions about his catching ability perhaps make him a better fit elsewhere. Reliever JoJo Romero is only controlled through 2026.

The details will surely become more clear in the coming weeks and months but it appears the main path has been selected. The rebuilding road will be a new one for the Cards. In the earlier parts of this century, they were on the cutting edge of player development, which allowed them to be consistently competitive. They’ve only had two losing seasons since 1999, though this year may be a third. They believe they have fallen a bit behind in those development areas and need to reset.

Bloom will be in charge of hitting that reset button. His previous tenure with the Red Sox saw the club amass an impressive collection of young talent, including guys like Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer, Wilyer Abreu, Connelly Early and others. Bloom was fired before most of those guys reached the majors but they are now helping the Red Sox re-emerge as a contender. The hope will be for the Cards to follow a similar script, though it’s possible the next few years could be painful for the big league team.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images

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