Brian Gunn On Walt Jocketty
Brian Gunn is a regular at Baseball Analysts and The Hardball Times, among other places. Recalling his fine "GM In A Box" piece on Walt Jocketty in the THT annual a few years back, I asked him to dispel his wisdom once again on the Cards ex-GM back in October of 2007. An excerpt of his piece follows.
WALT JOCKETTY
By Brian Gunn
New Reds GM Walt Jocketty was a big-game hunter with the Cardinals. He generally looked elsewhere for talent, and he landed some of the biggest names around. Here’s a brief look at his legacy.
JOCKETTY’S STRENGTHS
Jocketty built arguably the premier National League franchise of this decade. Since 2000, the Cardinals own more regular-seasons wins than any other NL team, won more playoff games, won more league titles, and, of course, won it all in 2006.
How did Jocketty do it? First of all, he was fearless. A master wheeler-dealer, nobody did a better job turning lemons into lemonade, often flipping questionable talent for marquee players.
Consider:
Jocketty landed, via trade, Mark McGwire, Jim Edmonds, Edgar Renteria, Darryl Kile, Scott Rolen, Dennis Eckersley, Todd Stottlemyre, Fernando Vina, Larry Walker, Will Clark, Adam Wainwright, and Woody Williams.
Here are the most notable players he gave up to get them: Eric Ludwick, T.J. Mathews, Kent Bottenfield, Adam Kennedy, Braden Looper, Pablo Ozuna, Manny Aybar, Jose Jimenez, Placido Polanco, Bud Smith, Steve Montgomery, Jay Witasick, Juan Acevedo, Chris Narveson, Jose Leon, one year of J.D. Drew, and the waning days of Ray Lankford’s career.
It’s an astonishing haul. Generally Jocketty would use the same formula: go after some established but underappreciated star, give up a few middling prospects for him, let him soak in the cozy St. Louis fan experience, win ballgames, re-sign the guy to an extension (often with a hometown discount), win more ballgames, then repeat the whole process as one big feedback loop. Jocketty was a master at that (and he was probably the best trading-deadline dealer there ever was – that’s how he got McGwire, Clark, Williams, Rolen, Walker, Chuck Finley, and Fernando Tatis).
Jocketty’s other big strength? Cobbling together a pitching staff on the cheap. It took him a while to get the hang of it – Cards’ hurlers in the ‘90s were usually awful. But Jocketty, along with rehab specialists Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan, were able to buy low for arms like Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, and Darryl Kile, and let them succeed in front of those reliable St. Louis infielders. At its best it worked beautifully. For example, in 2005 the Cards led the majors in ERA with a starting rotation that cost, altogether, $17 million – or less than what Roger Clemens alone made that year.
JOCKETTY’S WEAKNESSES
He was never that great at developing talent from within. Oh sure, he had his moments – he drafted and signed both Rick Ankiel and J.D. Drew when other teams wouldn’t touch ‘em for fear of being out-negotiated by Scott Boras. And of course, Jocketty was responsible for Albert Pujols, merely the best player in the league, if not all of baseball. But by and large the Cards’ cupboard ran rather bare during the Jocketty years. Baseball America has recently ranked them near the bottom of all major-league farm systems, and the Cards have been especially weak locating talent overseas. Perhaps that’s the flipside of Jocketty’s wheeling-and-dealing prowess – it gave him a sense that the team didn’t need to develop from within in order to succeed.
Jocketty’s other big weakness was that he tended to construct rather shallow rosters. Often the ballclub would be led by big shots like Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen, while the margins were raggedy at best. Cards fans no doubt remember some of the team’s biggest playoff games left in the hands of shlubs like Craig Paquette, Garrett Stephenson, or Jason Marquis. To be fair, however, Jocketty improved in this area over the last couple years. The Cards’ bench and bullpen were among the best in the league this past year, and role players were crucial to winning the World Series in 2006.
JOCKETTY’S BEST MOVE
Landing McGwire was a masterstroke that rejuvenated the franchise, but I’d still go with the trade of Bottenfield and Kennedy to the Angels for Jim Edmonds. In 1999 Bottenfield was an 18-game winner while Edmonds was an underperformer clouded by “character issues.” But Jocketty noticed that Bottenfield’s peripherals were weak, Edmonds were strong, and he moved on a deal. Kennedy ended up a dependable starter in Anaheim, but Edmonds ended up the best centerfielder in baseball for a number of years.
JOCKETTY’S WORST MOVE
I can still remember December 18, 2004, when the Cards traded starter Danny Haren, reliever Kiko Calero, and hitting prodigy Daric Barton for Mark Mulder. As others have pointed out (I can’t remember where), Calero for Mulder straight-up would’ve been a poor deal for the Cards, to say nothing of losing Haren and Barton. When I first heard the news I became literally sick to my stomach, and the feeling hasn’t quite gone away.
Oswalt Staying Put
Last night on Baseball Tonight, Peter Gammons suggested that Roy Oswalt might become available and that he was willing to waive his no-trade clause.
The Astros, however, are far from cashing in their chips. They’ve won their last four and have no intention of trading Oswalt. Oswalt is signed through 2011 with a full no-trade clause. Oswalt repeated his stance from last year – he’d consider waiving it if the Astros approached him (and if the acquiring team is the Cardinals, Braves, or Red Sox). I imagine most players feel this way. It’s a moot point right now; Ed Wade isn’t considering trading him.
Oswalt seemed like the one true healthy ace who might be available come July. I’ll touch on the remaining options in the next MLB Roundup.
No Offers For Bonds
Jon Heyman recently spoke to Barry Bonds‘ agent, Jeff Borris. Borris said no team has made any kind of offer to Bonds, even at the league minimum. Borris might not take $400K for Bonds, but he’d listen.
Tony La Russa and Ron Washington pushed for Bonds for their respective teams, but management passed. Heyman notes the Rays’ flirtation as well. That’s it though. No front office wants anything to do with Bonds, despite the possibility of a 1.000 OPS at a bargain basement price.
I still expect Bonds to play this year. A month or two from now some team is going to crack and decide that the production outweighs the baggage.
Odds and Ends: Deeds, Tejada
Some random tidbits for you; I may add to this post if I find a few more.
- RotoAuthority analyzes the hottest fantasy baseball pickups from this week.
- The Twins completed the Craig Monroe deal by sending 25 year-old outfielder Doug Deeds to the Cubs. He looks like a long shot to make the Majors. Monroe hasn’t looked like much of a big leaguer lately, either.
- Richard Justice notes that the Cardinals targeted Miguel Tejada this winter but couldn’t get it done. As if they needed any more steroid stigma. It’s interesting to see the Tejada deal looking so good for Baltimore, without Troy Patton factoring in at all.
- I did a fantasy baseball mailbag over at The Hardball Times.
At Least Ten Teams Scout Anthony Reyes
According to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, scouts from at least ten teams observed Anthony Reyes‘ fine start against Washington yesterday. He says the Cards have made Reyes’ availability known.
Reyes, 26, already has 250 Triple A innings and 200 big league innings under his belt. Despite an awful ERA and record last year for the Cards, his strikeout and walk rates weren’t too bad. Everyone seems to believe there’s something more here, but the potential won’t be realized in St. Louis. He’s not getting much encouragement from the Cardinals right now.
Teams that have shown interest in Reyes in the past: the Indians, Padres, and Phillies.
Cards To Sign Wainwright Long-Term
I mentioned on Monday that Cards ace Adam Wainwright seemed a prime candidate for an extension. Today, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says a contract is done, pending a physical. According to Goold:
The guaranteed part of the new contract is four years and expected to be worth around $15 million, and it will buy out Wainwright’s arbitration years, through 2011. The deal has an option that would cover the first two years of his free agency, sources said.
MLB.com’s Matthew Leach writes that Wainwright’s $448K renewal for ’08 will be overwritten and is one of the four guaranteed years of the deal. As such this would be in line with other young starter deals. And not all of the others got the third arb year guaranteed so Wainwright’s agent did well there.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Rule 5 Draftees
Last year the Reds selected Josh Hamilton in the Rule 5 draft despite only 23 games above Single-A and only 15 games anywhere since 2002 (actually the Cubs picked Hamilton and traded him to the Reds the same day). Hamilton went on to hit .292-19-47 in 90 games. This year, 18 players were chosen in the Rule 5 draft (14 pitchers). These players must remain on the 25-man roster all season or be offered back to their original club for $25K. By my count, three players (Sergio Valenzuela, Lincoln Holdzkom, Jose Capellan) have already been offered back to their original clubs (Capellan was picked up on waivers by a third team during the process). Hamilton is the rare case of a position player sticking with his new club as it is far easier to hide a developing pitcher and still get him playing time in the bullpen than it is on the bench.While it is rare for position players to stick, we have already learned that the Cardinals may keep Brian Barton as a fifth outfielder. As opening day rosters begin to take shape, let’s take a look at what is being said in the Blogosphere about the chances for the Rule draftees.
- Tim Lahey (RHP, CHC/MIN): Bleed Cubbie Blue sees the Cubs working out a trade with the Twins that would allow them to send Lahey to AAA. In fact, they speculate that Lahey will be the PTBNL in the Craig Monroe deal.
- Evan Meek (RHP, PIT/TB): Bucs Dugout predicts that Meek will at least start the season with the Pirates before being offered back to the Rays.
- Randor Bierd (RHP, BAL/DET): Bird Brain projects Bierd to make the roster and hopes the O’s give him every chance to stick.
- Jose Capellan (LHP, CIN/BOS): Capellan was originally selected by the Giants but was just placed on waivers. The Reds picked him up (Rule 5 rules still apply) and Obsessive Giants Compulsive is surprised the Giants let him go.
- Sergio Valenzuela (RHP, CIN/ATL): Valenzuela was sold back to the Braves after not making a single appearance in a spring game. The Braves then traded Valenzuela to a team in the Mexican League. Which begs the question…Are "future considerations" from the Mexican League worth the $25K the Braves dropped to bring him back? Talking Chop finds the entire situation funny and is not surprised that Valenzuela did not stick with the Reds.
- Brian Barton (OF, STL/CLE): Cardinals GM is predicting Barton to be on the opening day roster with Juan Gonzalez starting the season in AAA.
- R.A. Dickey (RHP, SEA/MIN): Detect-O-Vision is infatuated with the knuckleballer but notes that Dickey "has a looooooooooong way to go".
- Steven Register (RHP, NYM/COL): Mets Fever thinks Register might actually stick by earning the final spot in the bullpen.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
Cafardo’s Latest: Fuentes, Sowers, Laffey
Boston Globe baseball writer Nick Cafardo’s Sunday column has new hot stove material, as usual.
- Cafardo notes that Kyle Snyder, Julian Tavarez, and Bryan Corey have all been heavily scouted by other clubs. Snyder is out of options, so he’s a good trade candidate. Cafardo mentioned on Thursday that the Orioles were taking a look at Corey, who might return to Japan if he doesn’t join a big league ‘pen. I imagine the Sox are going to want the insurance Tavarez provides.
- The Phils are hunting for a southpaw reliever and another starter. Brian Fuentes remains on their radar, but they’re competing with the Tigers and Yankees for him.
- The Indians could make southpaws Jeremy Sowers and/or Aaron Laffey available, if Cliff Lee maintains his spring success. Cafardo says the Cardinals, Phillies, and Astros are eyeing them.
Cardinals Leaning Towards Keeping Barton
Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that Brian Barton is one player that may not switch teams prior to the regular season. Barton was selected by the Cardinals with the 10th pick of the Rule 5 draft from the Indians. The Cardinals are said to be deciding between keeping Barton or 2-time MVP Juan Gonzalez who is battling an abdominal injury.
"When you have a (Rule 5) guy, if there’s a way that guy can fit on your ballclub, you try to figure a way if you see a legitimate major-league future," La Russa said.
While Gonzalez’ spring numbers are solid (.308-1-5), Barton has also played well (.350) and offers the team more position flexibility as Gonzalez has been used primarily as a DH in the spring.
Barton must be offered back to the Indians for $25K or be kept on the 25-man roster all season. The Cardinals could try to work out a trade with the Indians that would allow them to option Barton to the minors, but Strauss says this path is unlikely considering how well Barton is playing.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
Lohse/Cardinals Deal Official
TODAY: Lohse passed his physical; it’s official.
THURSDAY: According to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cardinals signed Kyle Lohse to a one-year deal (pending a physical).
The deal is worth $4.25MM plus incentives, a fine deal by John Mozeliak. The Cardinals needed some depth, and Lohse offers upside beyond just innings (especially under Dave Duncan). Lohse has to be bummed – he was looking for ten times what he received. On the other hand, he’s still set for life.