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Olney: Cards Considering Stewart/Hunter

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I haven’t addressed the Cardinal outfield situation since March 5th.  Since then, many things have changed:

Kevin Mench is hitting .300/.328/.591 with 9 home runs.  He’s been driving in a lot of runs as the Rangers’ sixth place hitter.  What’s more, Jason Marquis has stunk it up (6.00 ERA) and John Koronka came out of nowhere to toss four quality starts in seven tries.  Can’t see any kind of Mench for Marquis swap now.

Also, Jim Edmonds is hitting .240/.333/.417, and Will Carroll thinks he may have to shut it down for a while to get completely right again.

Toss in a strained elbow for Sidney Ponson (who has a 2.81 ERA) and a sore back for Mark Mulder, and the Cardinals can’t afford to deal a starting pitcher right now.

The need for an outfielder persists.  So Taguchi isn’t hitting.  Larry Bigbie was activated yesterday, and he deserves a shot.  According to Cardinals Diaspora, a recent Buster Olney report indicates interest from Walt Jocketty in Torii Hunter or Shannon Stewart.  As noted in the post, Stewart is more their style.  He makes $6.5MM this year and is off to a .295/.352/.384 start.  PECOTA expects his age 32 season to finish around .272/.335/.406.  Is that really any better than the .264/.334/.423 season projected for Bigbie?

The Craig Wilson option remains a viable one, and Luis Gonzalez’s .832 OPS ain’t bad.  Cards fans dream of Miguel Cabrera, but Dontrelle Willis seems more likely to be dealt this summer.  Haven’t seen any smoke on that one for a while, though the Cards did show interest.  Anthony Reyes remains the best trading chip, as he has a 3.62 ERA and 35/5 K/BB ratio at Triple A.  About a week ago, Viva El Birdos noted some interesting developments surrounding a Reyes start.

A few more possibilities, based on my own speculation: Eric Hinske, Reggie Sanders, Alfonso Soriano, Emil Brown, Brady Clark, Jose Cruz Jr., Matt Lawton, David Dellucci, and Victor Diaz.

If I were GM?  I’d probably start with Lawton but see what it would take to get Reggie back.

Cubs Shopping Maddux?

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A good one from the rumor mill over at Gotham Baseball.  Unfortunately their page is not working right now so here’s a link to MetsBlog’s take on Gotham’s report.  According to Gotham, Greg Maddux is being shopped.  Interested parties: Mets, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Royals, and Cardinals. 

The Cubs would essentially be reducing their rotation to "Carlos Zambrano and pray for a tornado," but Maddux is an impending free agent.  My opinion from a couple of weeks ago:  he’s the same old Mad Dog, just with a well-timed hot streak.  Still, dealing him now would be a very early white flag for a Cubs team with a $94MM payroll.  Doesn’t seem to compute.  And the obligatory intradivision thing must be cited for the Brewers and Cards.  I am surprised no West Coast teams have been mentioned.

Miscellaneous Rumors

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There are a few trade-related nuggets in the newspapers today, but I don’t expect anything major to go down until June.

The Reds are trying to find a taker for Tony Womack, who has thankfully been pushed out of their infield and demoted.  That is what we call a million dollar mistake.  I guess Brandon Phillips makes up for it, at least until his bat runs cold.

Jay Payton and his agent are being vocal about finding him his 500 ABs with another team if necessary.  The best fit I can find is the Cardinals.

The Yanks plan on declining Mike Mussina’s option and re-signing him to a more reasonable deal.  The decline is a no-brainer at $17MM, but I’m just remembering what happened with Jon Lieber.  New York had some goodwill there after paying Lieber to rehab, but he still jumped ship after seeing the market.  This is a different situation given Mussina’s tenure, and he has said he wants to stay put.  I’m just saying, it’s not a 100% lock.

Howie Kendrick got the call, but it took an injury, and not a trade, of Maicer Izturis.  My guess is that Izturis will spend at least a month on the shelf and that Kendrick will stick for the rest of the season.  If Kendrick can hit as expected between pinch-hitting, DHing, and spot starting at 2B/3B, there will be plenty of interest for Adam Kennedy in the coming months.  Kennedy is a 3-4 win guy who could really help the Mets or Cardinals for half a season. 

Cardinals Kicking Tires On Cabrera

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That’s right, a friend of MLBTradeRumors informs us that a team source has confirmed that the Cardinals are "checking into" Miguel Cabrera.  An unknown third team would definitely be involved to broker a deal.

Seems to me that Jocketty’s been looking to make that big splash all offseason, and obviously this would qualify.  I would expect Anthony Reyes to depart as well as whatever other big-name prospect the team could wrangle.  Reyes fits the bill as a Major League-ready, front rotation type starter.  The Cards would use Cabrera in left field and could improve the club by as many as five wins with the addition.

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Jason Marquis for Victor Diaz?

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Just got word from my main Mets source with all sorts of good info.

With Pedro’s status a question mark at this point, Omar Minaya would like to add a proven veteran starting pitcher to the middle of the rotation.  The Mets first preference is Jason Marquis (a New York native, for what it’s worth).  They’ve offered a package beginning with Victor Diaz to entice Walt Jocketty.  Diaz would probably be an upgrade over the Cards’ current left field options.  The Mets aren’t thrilled with Diaz’s defense and would be content to try Xavier Nady in right field.

Other options include two Boston starters.  The Mets would love to bring Matt Clement back to the NL, but they don’t want to give up a lot to get him and are wary of his salary.  Bronson Arroyo’s name has also come up.

The White Sox could also be a factor if they decide to part with Jose Contreras.

Keep an eye this spring on the right field battle, Pedro’s toe, and the 4th-5th starter spots in the rotation.  A spring trade is a good possibility.

The Soriano thing has pretty much been debunked; the Mets will see where Kaz Matsui takes them and then try Anderson Hernandez as needed.

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Cards Looking For A LF

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You can’t help but be a little skeptical that the Cardinals plan to go with Larry Bigbie and So Taguchi as their left fielder all year long.  Bigbie’s had a few tolerable years in ’03-’04, but let’s face it: he’s basically Todd Hollandsworth.  You want him coming off the bench.  Taguchi is in his mid-30s and certainly won’t manage league average production for a left fielder.  Not to mention he’ll be needed to back up Jim Edmonds for a signficant amount of time.  And third-stringer John Rodriguez may be on the outs.

I did what I always do when I want to dissect the Cardinals – I talked to Larry of Viva El Birdos.  Most of the following is culled directly from Larry, who has his finger on the pulse of the team.

About a week ago, Cardinals’ beat writer Matt Leach opined that by the time the playoffs roll around, an impact bat or at least someone else will be starting in left field.  According to Larry, other journalists covering the team are on the same page.

I threw out five guys that I thought could fit the bill:  Luis Gonzalez, Carlos Lee, Kevin Mench, Ryan Church, and Jay Payton.

Larry considered Mench the frontrunner, saying, "Mench could come over during Spring Training; I
have this feeling a Mench-for-Marquis trade has been sitting there, shrink-wrapped and ready to be run through the bar-code reader, for two or three months. If the Cards decide in the next 2-3 weeks that Ponson-Reyes-Wainwright can cover them, they’ll pull the trigger."

I agree entirely.  It’d be a deal that would help both teams, and Jason Botts could probably approximate Mench’s numbers for the Rangers.  Botts’s 2005 season in Triple A was roughly the equivalent of a .252/.315/.444 line in the Majors.  I have a lot of faith in Reyes, so the only wild card would be Ponson in the fifth spot.

On Gonzo, Larry said:  "If they add Gonzalez, it won’t be until mid-season due to his large 2006 salary."  That’d be $11.5MM, and don’t forget that Luis has trade veto power.  My hunch is that he’d be willing to come to St. Louis if the D’Backs aren’t contending.  A very solid candidate to be acquired by the Cards.

Larry rightfully dismissed Payton, Lee, and Church.  The Cards don’t really have anything the A’s need for Payton; Lee presents a division rival trade, something that Jocketty hasn’t done for quite some time (perhaps dating back to Fernando Vina).  He said that the front office may not see Church as a major improvement over what they have, though we both agree that he would be.  Jose Guillen’s current status doesn’t look too bad, but the Nats will still have a strong need for Church unless Soriano moves to center field.

To throw one more name into the mix, Cardinals Diaspora was researching a possible Craig Wilson trade.  In a nutshell, Ryan says that while Wilson seems like a good fit, the Cards may be looking for a lefty and the Pirates may prefer to deal Sean Casey at the deadline.  Good read.

There you have it.  Granted this is all just educated speculation, but we did unearth the Cards’ interest in A.J. Burnett the last time we put our blogs/heads together.

MLB Free Agents 2007: Mark Mulder

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After reading Joe Strauss’s article today in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, I got to thinking about impending free agent Mark Mulder.  The standout quote:

"Mulder is certain to seek a package with higher average annual value than the five-year, $55 million contract A.J. Burnett received last December from the Toronto Blue Jays."

I don’t doubt that he’ll want and expect this kind of money, based on his career totals of 98 victories, a 3.87 ERA, and a 1.30 WHIP before age 29.  The problem with his contract (and most free agent contracts) is that he’ll be paid largely on what he’s done and not what he will do.  Burnett at least has upside.

I’m not here to bash Mulder; I know he’s still a solid innings guy and that he’s become one of the more extreme groundball pitchers in the game as his strikeout rate has declined.  He’s a decent five-win pitcher, akin to the current version of Brad Radke.

I don’t know why teams continue to overpay for this kind of production, but they do.  If you look at Mulder’s projected Marginal Value Over Replacement Player, his next five-year contract could have an annual average close to his value for the entire length of the contract.  In other words, he might make $12MM in 2007 despite being worth less than $16MM over the entire period of 2007-2011.

It’s understood that that’s the way free agency works and you have to pay a premium to get decent starting pitching.  But Mulder’s next contract looks like it will be one of the most egregious examples of a free agent mistake.  If the market overvalues starters, shouldn’t teams find other ways to acquire them or else just build a dominant offense at the expense of pitching? 

Guys like Brad Radke, Mike Mussina, Kerry Wood, Andy Pettitte, and Jason Schmidt should also hit the market after the 2006 season.  The Schmidt Derby should be a wild one, especially if he returns to form in 2006 as I’ve projected.

Old Edmonds Trade Rumor Legit?

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Some nice rumor-related digging was done recently over at Viva El Birdos.  Lboros tracked down this comment made by Mitchel Lichtman recently:

"Of course, you never know if and when a player like Edmonds will be part of a major trade. In order to stay competitive, we will eventually (soon) need to replace him in CF with either another great player (and presumably pay through the nose) or replace him with someone good (and underrated) and then upgrade at the corners and at second, and of course eventually at SS again (which is another difficult position to find bargains). We have very few, if any, position player prospects ready for the Majors anytime soon (I don’t think)."

Lichtman is a defensive guru who consults for the Cardinals, so his feelings on Edmonds trade rumors carry some weight.  You may recall a seemingly wacky Edmonds for Cano and Wang trade rumor surfacing here on November 29th.  That one was also brought to my attention via Viva El Birdos, and it originated with St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz.

Lboros covers the implications of Lichtman’s comment thoroughly, acknowledging that the rumor was feasible in November but no longer fits.  He finishes with this comment:

"The important point here isn’t whether the Edmonds-Cano-Wang rumor had any substance behind it. The point is that trading Edmonds to restructure the payroll isn’t out of the question — and that’s coming straight from a member of the Cards’ decision-making chorus."

Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities

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There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.

1.  He’s an impending free agent making $8.5MM.

2.  Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).

3.  The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006.  Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506.  Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.

4.  Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs.  According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.

The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee.  Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name.  Here’s my own analysis of the possibilities.

Red Sox – If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.

Blue Jays – Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don’t have much going on in LF.  If they’re hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.

White Sox – I don’t see it.  They didn’t part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth.  I’m for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don’t think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.

Angels – It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny.  Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.

Braves – The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency.  J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind.  They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.

Cubs – Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely.  Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.

Cardinals – They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.

My ranking of the most likely suitors:  Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs.  I’d like to see your thoughts in the comments.

Choices Narrowing For Weaver

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Back on January 12th, we were able to reason our way towards determining six possible suitors for Jeff Weaver.  Here was the list:

"In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels."

Since then, the Orioles traded for Kris Benson and the Cubs signed a much cheaper option in Wade Miller.  The remaining four can be re-ranked as Angels, Cardinals, Mets, Astros.  You can almost cross Houston off the list; there hasn’t been talk of them pursuing Weaver as Jose Contreras remains high on their wish list.

The Los Angeles Times reports that the Angels may offer Weaver a one year contract with an option for 2007.  It’d be wise for the Angels to lock in the innings eater after losing Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd, who combined for 381 innings in 2005.

I’d put the Angels chances of signing Weaver at 75%.  The Mets really aren’t looking to take on Weaver; he may not perform under the spotlight again and isn’t significantly better than Benson (he’s maybe about one win better).  The Cards would be mad to add Weaver to a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan, and Sidney Ponson/Anthony Reyes.  The club is wavering on starting Reyes, and he’s already better than Weaver.  Weaver is barely an improvement over Marquis, so dealing him and signing Weaver would be a curious decision.  I suppose it could happen if the right outfield bat came along in return for Marquis though.       

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