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Alfonso Soriano Trade Possibilities

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Ken Rosenthal’s latest article mentions that a trade of Alfonso Soriano could happen, but Nationals are more likely to offer Soriano a long-term deal to convince him to become an outfielder.  I don’t doubt Rosenthal, but let’s take a look at some possible suitors for the second baseman.  I’ll assume that a trade signifies no position change.

First off, let’s narrow the field by looking at which teams lack an established 2B.

Blue Jays – Looks like Aaron Hill is the man at second base for 2006, and he’s a fairly solid hitter already.  Plus, Soriano probably isn’t Ricciardi’s type of player.

Mariners – Jose Lopez will get the nod entering this season, and he slugged .505 during a couple of stints at Triple A.  Giving him a full-time shot makes way more sense than trading for Soriano.

Marlins – Obviously the Fish aren’t dealing for Sori.

Mets – The Mets have made all sorts of splashes this winter, and adding a 2B isn’t top priority.  They’d like to cut their losses with Matsui, but Jeff Keppinger and Anderson Hernandez are viable in-house candidates.

Cubs – The Cubs have a three-headed monster at second base, and Soriano probably doesn’t fit into the budget at $12MM+ over several years.  The Cubs have a tradition of free swinging, and I could see Hendry trying this for 2006 if A)The Nationals win their arbitration case and/or eat some salary and B)the price is low.

Cardinals – St. Louis seems content with a battle between Junior Spivey and Aaron Miles for the 2B job.  Plus, Soriano doesn’t seem like the typical St. Louis team player. 

Padres – They’re going to let Mark Bellhorn, Eric Young, and Josh Barfield have a crack at 2B.  Plus, I can’t see how Soriano would fit into the budget.

Of course, the Nationals already had an established 2B when they traded for Soriano, so maybe this isn’t the best guide.  Rosenthal’s suggestion that Soriano will stay put is entirely logical once you break down the potential trade partners.  If a deal was struck, it’d mostly be a salary dump and I think the only teams with mild interest would be the Cubs and Mets.  Just my opinion. 

Trade Candidates Part 1

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With the hot stove not all that hot at the moment, I thought I’d run down some guys who could be traded between now and July 31st in an attempt to peer into the future.  Part 1 of the series will focus on some of the players in their contract year.

Barry Bonds is unlikely to be dealt, given that the Giants have pinned most of their offensive hopes on him.  But if, for some reason, the team is out of contention in July and Bonds is looking more awful than usual in the field, a deal to the AL could be in the cards.  Adding Bonds at DH could mean 4-5 extra wins in the second half alone, so I’d expect a big bounty even with his $18MM salary and impending free agency.

We’re all pretty much assuming Jose Contreras will be dealt.  Some say it’d be most prudent for the Sox to wait til spring training and take stock before sending him off to the Mets, Phillies, or wherever else.  On the other hand, if there was ever a time to sell high, it’s right now.

One name I haven’t seen thrown about in trade rumors at all is Greg Maddux.  I assume it’s because he’s over 40 and makes $9MM in 2006, but Mad Dog could be a big help to a contender at the deadline.  I’ve projected a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; he’s got plenty left.  Even if the Cubs had to eat a few mil, it’d make more sense to trade Maddux than Jerome Williams.  If the health of Wood, Prior, and Miller works out in their favor the Cubs could have a surplus.

Jason Marquis is projected to post a 4.43 ERA in 200 innings.  He’d be serviceable as rental for the season, and he’s still on the right side of 30.  I’m not sure which teams will be chomping at the bit to give him the three year, $21MM extension he’ll require, but someone will.

Mark Mulder is also under 30, though he’s shown some ugly trends over the past three seasons.  It’ll be interesting to see how Walt Jocketty views Mulder – perhaps Mulder will take the St. Louis discount to keep that top-notch defense behind him?

It seems that Andy Pettitte wouldn’t be dealt by the Astros midseason pretty much no matter what.  Even when the Astros have been counted out they’ve made the playoffs, so it’d be impossible to justify trading Pettitte to the fanbase.

I’m fairly certain the Cubs will sign Juan Pierre to a long-term deal.  Especially if he hits .309 as projected and impresses the old hands with his bunting skills and work ethic.  Politically, Jim Hendry almost has to keep Pierre around in case one of the three pitchers sent to Florida pans out.

Jason Schmidt could be a hot commodity, but, like Bonds, is a long shot to be dealt.  I think the Giants would look for a young bat in return.

More impending free agents and trade candidates to come…

More Jeff Weaver

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I was wondering whether the Cardinals could fit Jeff Weaver into their payroll if they moved some parts around, and called upon Viva El Birdos to determine the answer.  Lboros thoroughly dissected the issue yesterday.  The verdict:

"So I guess my answer is: yes, there are knots the Cardinals could tie themselves into in order to fit Jeff Weaver into the payroll; but no, I don’t think they would be inclined to go that route."

Read the post and you’ll probably be inclined to agree. 

In addition, I spoke to my Mets source today.  He said the club is not interested in Weaver.  Commenters in my Weaver post from the other day pointed out that with Mike Pelfrey on the fast track, there’s really no place for Weaver on the Mets. 

Looks like the Orioles, Cubs, Astros, and Angels are the major players here.  However, the Phillies could be in the mix given that Ryan Madson is no lock for the rotation.  (This is why I love open comments – with enough smart people, all options get uncovered).   

Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing

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I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside).  After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time.  Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.

For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market.  He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29.  He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span. 

Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras.  We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now.  Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him.  It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.

Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians.  If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something.  However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180.  It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued.  Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.

Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles.  Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.

Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here.  And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies.  The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.

Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East.  His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.

Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back.  Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.

Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera.  This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason.  According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."

Mets – Sure, why not?  Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel.  You could do worse.

Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin.  I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.

Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas.  Ryan Drese is floating around as well.  I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.

Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility.  No Boras reservations.  Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams.  Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though.  Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter.  Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).

Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.

Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation.  If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix.  After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter.  Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.

Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.

I think that pretty much sums it up.  In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels.  Just my best guess.  I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.

Cards Make Offer to Felix Rodriguez

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A source close to the Cardinals’ organization is informing me that the club has an offer out to righthanded reliever Felix Rodriguez.  Details of the team’s proposal are not yet known.  Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch previously reported that the Cards were close to signing Rodriguez on December 21st.

The 33 year-old reliever has pitched 556 innings in his career, posting a 3.51 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  Rodriguez’s prime came with the Giants.  In 2001, he won 9 games with a 1.68 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 80 innings for San Francisco.  Torn knee cartilage limited Rodriguez to 32 ineffective innings this year for the Yankees. 

  The Cards’ proposal is likely in the range of $2-3MM for one year.  The team has already added Braden Looper, Ricardo Rincon, and possibly Sidney Ponson for their 2006 bullpen. 

Buzz Around The Game

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Believe it or not, there’s a ton of stuff going on today that doesn’t involve the words "Prior" or "Tejada."

A tentative Troy Glaus trade has been reached.  The Diamondbacks dumped Glaus and his contract on the Blue Jays for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista.  Brandon Webb, far and away the most extreme groundball pitcher in baseball, benefits greatly from the addition of Hudson.  Another effect is the breakup of a highly rated defensive infield, at least in the eyes of Dayn Perry.  The Blue Jays now have a logjam of 1B/3B/DH guys, and Rosenthal speculates that Shea Hillenbrand is the most likely to go.  Should Shea stay true to his word, he’ll be a nice pickup.  It’s a homecoming for Miguel Batista; let’s hope the team correctly employs him as a starter.  Even with Glaus gone, the Diamondbacks still haven’t cleared up a corner outfield spot for #1 prospect Carlos Quentin.  The kid’s more than ready; let’s hope GM Josh Byrnes can unload Luis Gonzalez or Shawn Green as his next trick.   

Jason Johnson makes a sweet pickup for the Indians’ rotation.  Like Millwood last year, the Indians found a starting pitcher and only had to commit to one year.  In Paul Byrd, Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, and Johnson, the Tribe has built a deep rotation.  Combined, the five of them threw 1023 innings in 2005.  Seems Mark Shapiro has taken a page from Kenny Williams’s book, especially considering that he also has an excellent bullpen in place.

The Cards snagged Juan Encarnacion and Junior Spivey.  The reaction at Viva El Birdos to the revamped 2006 lineup:

"To be honest and blunt, i don’t see a single position where the Cardinals have meaningfully improved." 

That sentiment includes the bullpen and starting rotation as well.  Which reminds me – how can the Cardinals possibly justify blocking Anthony Reyes with Sidney Ponson?  The Ponson signing means one of three things:

1.  There are concerns about Reyes’s health that have not been revealed to the public.
2.  Jason Marquis will be traded this winter.
3.  Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan are so loathe put a rookie starter out there every fifth day that they’d prefer yet another fixer-upper.  Even if said fixer-upper had a 5.64 ERA over his last 346 innings.

Cardinals fans have got to be hoping for option #2.

Cardinals Interested In Coco Crisp

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According to 2005 WARP (a Baseball Prospectus stat that combines offense and defense), Coco Crisp was the game’s 8th best left fielder in 2005.  He won’t be a free agent until after the 2009 season, according to Unofficial Major League Baseball.  For a Cleveland club in need of an additional bat, trading Crisp away doesn’t seem reasonable.  For the price, Crisp is a nice guy to have around.

Nonetheless, a couple of sources are saying the Indians are definitely entertaining offers and the Cardinals have inquired.  As useful as Crisp is, it’s never a bad idea to entertain offers.

Via the trustworthy Hawg Wild, Viva El Birdos confirms the Cards’ interest.  Lboros has the scoop on some other Cards buzz going around as well.

I can’t vouch for this link, which comes via the grapevine and has a story with it. 

Jason Marquis for Crisp would seem to be an even swap, but that’s just speculation.  You can check out Baseball America’s top ten prospects for the Cardinals here; it’s possible a package of a few of the non-Reyes guys could entice Mark Shapiro.  More likely he wants a Major League starter in return.

Update: A lot of folks have contested my comment above that Marquis-Crisp would be an even swap, and rightfully so.  The biggest difference is less in talent level than in the contracts of each player.  Anyway, for the most thorough and insightful discussion of Coco Crisp trade possibilities, check out lboros’s post today over at Viva El Birdos.

Cards May Miss Out On Morris

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This morning, I mentioned that Matt Morris could be considered Plan C for Walt Jocketty.  Looks like it might be time for Plan D. 

Joe Strauss’s article from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch today confirms the Cardinals’ lowball offer to Morris of $13MM over two years with a $7MM option for the third.  Strauss quoted Jocketty on agent Barry Axelrod’s reaction to the offer:

"If we don’t get one of these guys we still feel we have a pretty strong rotation," Jocketty said. "We wanted to get a little depth; it might’ve allowed us to do some other things. We’ll have to go to Plan C. We have a lot of plans left."

If that’s not enough for you, I spoke with Bernie Miklasz today, also of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  According to Bernie:

"They’ve been rejected by Morris…. not officially, but Jocketty was bummed about the response he got from Axelrod."

Alexrod’s response probably indicated that Morris wasn’t going to be giving the Cardinal discount after the club came crawling back to him.

My count of Jocketty’s Plans so far differs from his.  I’ve got A.J. Burnett as Plan A, Javier Vazquez as Plan B, and Matt Morris as Plan C.  Despite Jocketty’s posturing, Adam Wainwright isn’t ready for a Major League rotation.  Wainwright avoided surgery after he finished 2004 with an aching elbow, and he went on to post OK numbers at Triple A Memphis.  He definitely needs more seasoning.  Don’t expect the Cards to open the season with both Anthony Reyes and Wainwright in the rotation.

So let’s figure this out: who’s Plan D?  Let’s scan the Top 50 Free Agents List.  The Cards are too cheap for Roger Clemens even if he would play for them. Kevin Millwood, Jeff Weaver, and Jarrod Washburn will all cost at least as much as Morris.  This takes us all the way down to #42, Jason Johnson.  Johnson might be had $11MM over two years, and he’s my guess for Plan D.  Of course, if it comes to that, it might make sense to just hang on to Jason Marquis and find another way to acquire an outfielder.

Cards Make A Play For Matt Morris

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Sadly for frustrated Cardinals fans, it’s come to this: Plan C.  A distant Plan C, at that.  After falling short on #2 starter types A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez, Walt Jocketty confirmed his interest in good ol’ Matt Morris.

Jayson Stark quoting an anonymous GM yesterday about the Cardinals:

"That’s a team whose window to win may be closing.  They’ll still be good. But they’re getting thinner, and they’re getting older, and they’re getting more vulnerable."

This is undeniable.  The Cards aren’t packed with young talent in the pipeline, and a couple of stars like Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen might be creeping towards their decline phase. 

That’s why signing Matt Morris is a bad move.  It doesn’t seem like the type of move the Cardinals would make.  They were planning on letting him go because they knew he wasn’t worth $24MM over three years and they refused to pay it.  Now they might hand him that money anyway because there’s nothing better and cheaper out there.

Continuing to pitch in front of a solid St. Louis defense will be good for Morris’s career as he becomes a finesse pitcher.  A few weeks ago, I gave an ’06 projection for Morris as a San Francisco Giant.  I said a 4.41 ERA with that defense; he might manage 4.25 with some luck as a Cardinal in ’06.  U.S.S. Mariner said it best on October in their Free Agent Landmines post:

"Since the all-star break, Matt Morris has been, well, awful. His numbers across the board have taken a nosedive. His strikeout rate has fallen and he’s getting lit up like a Christmas tree. He has a history of arm problems, and at this point, wouldn’t be a good bet even on a one year contract. Given his reputation and his overall totals, someone is certainly going to overpay."

Looks like that someone could be the Cardinals. 

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