Cardinals Interested In Coco Crisp
According to 2005 WARP (a Baseball Prospectus stat that combines offense and defense), Coco Crisp was the game’s 8th best left fielder in 2005. He won’t be a free agent until after the 2009 season, according to Unofficial Major League Baseball. For a Cleveland club in need of an additional bat, trading Crisp away doesn’t seem reasonable. For the price, Crisp is a nice guy to have around.
Nonetheless, a couple of sources are saying the Indians are definitely entertaining offers and the Cardinals have inquired. As useful as Crisp is, it’s never a bad idea to entertain offers.
Via the trustworthy Hawg Wild, Viva El Birdos confirms the Cards’ interest. Lboros has the scoop on some other Cards buzz going around as well.
I can’t vouch for this link, which comes via the grapevine and has a story with it.
Jason Marquis for Crisp would seem to be an even swap, but that’s just speculation. You can check out Baseball America’s top ten prospects for the Cardinals here; it’s possible a package of a few of the non-Reyes guys could entice Mark Shapiro. More likely he wants a Major League starter in return.
Update: A lot of folks have contested my comment above that Marquis-Crisp would be an even swap, and rightfully so. The biggest difference is less in talent level than in the contracts of each player. Anyway, for the most thorough and insightful discussion of Coco Crisp trade possibilities, check out lboros’s post today over at Viva El Birdos.
Mark Mulder Projection
A little Sunday reading for you:
Check out my Mark Mulder projection over at RotoAuthority.
Read why Aaron Gleeman thinks the Twins’ latest signing will be an "unqualified disaster."
Find out what the Knicks are up to in the trade market over at HoopsBuzz.
Cards May Miss Out On Morris
This morning, I mentioned that Matt Morris could be considered Plan C for Walt Jocketty. Looks like it might be time for Plan D.
Joe Strauss’s article from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch today confirms the Cardinals’ lowball offer to Morris of $13MM over two years with a $7MM option for the third. Strauss quoted Jocketty on agent Barry Axelrod’s reaction to the offer:
"If we don’t get one of these guys we still feel we have a pretty strong rotation," Jocketty said. "We wanted to get a little depth; it might’ve allowed us to do some other things. We’ll have to go to Plan C. We have a lot of plans left."
If that’s not enough for you, I spoke with Bernie Miklasz today, also of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. According to Bernie:
"They’ve been rejected by Morris…. not officially, but Jocketty was bummed about the response he got from Axelrod."
Alexrod’s response probably indicated that Morris wasn’t going to be giving the Cardinal discount after the club came crawling back to him.
My count of Jocketty’s Plans so far differs from his. I’ve got A.J. Burnett as Plan A, Javier Vazquez as Plan B, and Matt Morris as Plan C. Despite Jocketty’s posturing, Adam Wainwright isn’t ready for a Major League rotation. Wainwright avoided surgery after he finished 2004 with an aching elbow, and he went on to post OK numbers at Triple A Memphis. He definitely needs more seasoning. Don’t expect the Cards to open the season with both Anthony Reyes and Wainwright in the rotation.
So let’s figure this out: who’s Plan D? Let’s scan the Top 50 Free Agents List. The Cards are too cheap for Roger Clemens even if he would play for them. Kevin Millwood, Jeff Weaver, and Jarrod Washburn will all cost at least as much as Morris. This takes us all the way down to #42, Jason Johnson. Johnson might be had $11MM over two years, and he’s my guess for Plan D. Of course, if it comes to that, it might make sense to just hang on to Jason Marquis and find another way to acquire an outfielder.
Cards Make A Play For Matt Morris
Sadly for frustrated Cardinals fans, it’s come to this: Plan C. A distant Plan C, at that. After falling short on #2 starter types A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez, Walt Jocketty confirmed his interest in good ol’ Matt Morris.
Jayson Stark quoting an anonymous GM yesterday about the Cardinals:
"That’s a team whose window to win may be closing. They’ll still be good. But they’re getting thinner, and they’re getting older, and they’re getting more vulnerable."
This is undeniable. The Cards aren’t packed with young talent in the pipeline, and a couple of stars like Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen might be creeping towards their decline phase.
That’s why signing Matt Morris is a bad move. It doesn’t seem like the type of move the Cardinals would make. They were planning on letting him go because they knew he wasn’t worth $24MM over three years and they refused to pay it. Now they might hand him that money anyway because there’s nothing better and cheaper out there.
Continuing to pitch in front of a solid St. Louis defense will be good for Morris’s career as he becomes a finesse pitcher. A few weeks ago, I gave an ’06 projection for Morris as a San Francisco Giant. I said a 4.41 ERA with that defense; he might manage 4.25 with some luck as a Cardinal in ’06. U.S.S. Mariner said it best on October in their Free Agent Landmines post:
"Since the all-star break, Matt Morris has been, well, awful. His numbers across the board have taken a nosedive. His strikeout rate has fallen and he’s getting lit up like a Christmas tree. He has a history of arm problems, and at this point, wouldn’t be a good bet even on a one year contract. Given his reputation and his overall totals, someone is certainly going to overpay."
Looks like that someone could be the Cardinals.
Jocketty Faces Burnett Aftermath
A.J. Burnett slipped out of the Cardinals’ grasp because of The Fifth Year, and Lboros over at Viva El Birdos thinks the team was being cheap. He mentions their new stadium, radio and TV deal revenue, and two postseasons in a row. Given that A.J. Burnett was the only free agent pitcher out there who could be a difference-maker, what are Cards fans to do?
Well, they shouldn’t count Walt Jocketty out just yet. While perhaps not the best trade in his history, Jocketty did make a move on one of last Javieyear’s hot commodities, Mark Mulder. He’s fully capable of doing the same thing for Javier Vazquez. The Indians appear to be the front-runner for Vazquez’s services, but the Cards might be able to pull something off.
After a perusal of the Cardinals’ Baseball America Top Ten Prospects, only Anthony Reyes is Major-League ready among a thin crop. It seems that Reyes, and only Reyes, could bring Vazquez, or any other name starting pitcher, to St. Louis. It wouldn’t be the first time Jocketty dealt a near-ready righthanded starter for a proven veteran version. However, should the Snakes insist on a position player (they wanted Coco Crisp), Vazquez won’t be joining the Cardinals. If Jocketty can’t come up with his #2 starter, expect Jason Marquis to remain with the club.
Cards Interested In Braden Looper
Word on the street is that the Cardinals plan on making a run at Braden Looper this week to add some depth to their bullpen.
Looper had a lost ’05 – his HR rate shot up, his lost his 2004 gains in control, and his K rate plummeted. He lost his closer’s title in September and was an the operating table the following month (shoulder surgery). With the AC joint arthritis cleaned up, it’s worth a million bucks on the Cards’ part to see if he can return to 2004 levels in a setup role.
The Cardinals are also poking their head around to see how much Octavio Dotel is asking for. Dotel may not be ready til midseason, but many Cardinal fans think they’ll have the division locked up by then anyway.
Thanks to Drew
A.J. Burnett Update
Some new information to report on the A.J. Burnett saga.
Let’s start at Viva El Birdos, where lboros is getting a little weary with the constant Burnett sightings and updates. It’s unclear whether he can be described as indefatigable. Lboros references this Toronto Star article, which has the Cards close but the Blue Jays still in the game. Another article mentions that the Nationals are still in the running even though they’ve yet to make an offer.
In light of this information, Brian Walton’s Scout.com article has changed significantly. Walton is still contending that Burnett is due in St. Louis for a physical and has agreed to terms.
Speaking of Burnett in St. Louis sightings, I’ve got another source adamant that Burnett was seen at Lambert-St. Louis International Airport as first noted yesterday. My source has talked to the head of security for Terminal A, who is "99% sure" it was A.J. Burnett last night. Given that both sightings were by Cardinals fans, there may be another explanation to all the madness.
Scout.com: “Burnett Deal Almost Done”
Brian Walton of Scout.com is reporting that A.J. Burnett has agreed to terms with the Cardinals. I have not spoken to Walton on the topic; he passed on an interview request a few days ago after writing a somewhat confusing article for Scout.com on November 30th.
Walton’s article says the deal is for five years, guaranteed, and required special permission from the Cardinals’ chairman.
There’s a thread over at St. Louis Post-Dispatch columnist Bernie Miklasz’s Pressbox forum on this topic. Miklasz has yet to weigh in. Another poster on an STL Today forum claims to have seen Burnett at the Lambert-St. Louis International Airport, for what it’s worth.
Lboros from Viva El Birdos has a trusted source down at the winter meetings, and he says the deal is "basically done." Things are looking up for Cards fans at this point.
Thanks to the many emailers who passed the article along.
That Infamous Cardinals Memo
Didn’t get enough about this scandalous memo sent out by Walt Jocketty? If you recall, we first reported on a memo to Cardinals employees threatening termination if they disclosed any information two days ago.
Here’s the rundown of the memo history, based on a few of my own sources.
A memo containing confidential information went out to all 30 MLB teams.
One team employee sent the memo to a member of the media, who published it (that’s more or less a direct quote; if I find text of the initial MLB memo I’ll be sure to post it. For now, this is all I know.)
MLB sent firm instruction to teams: don’t leak confidential information!
The Cardinals, plus an unknown West Coast team, sent a memo to employees reminding them not to disclose confidential information.
So, in conclusion, the Jocketty memo that we thought prefaced a huge trade or signing may have been no more than a run-of-the-mill nondisclosure reminder.
Update: Received some additional info concerning the initial memo sent by MLB to all 30 teams. Seems that a large portion of Peter Gammons’s November 18th column may have come from the MLB memo. It’s an Insider column, but here’s the gist.
There’s a rundown of teams’ percentage of revenues that go into payroll, and it’s been steadily decreasing since 2002. In other words, the teams are holding on to almost half their revenue. Gammons says the info was given to clubs by the Commissioner’s Office and even admits the memo is confidential. The column goes on to state that 2/3 of teams were profitable in ’05.
More Cardinals Rumblings
Trusted blogger Lboros has a new post over at Viva El Birdos that does a solid, thorough job of sifting through the rumors flying about in relation to the Cardinals. Especially with that infamous memo. The memo! The memo! You can check out our post from yesterday morning as a refresher.
The short version:
Walt Jocketty has been unusually uptight this offseason and has been keeping things close to the vest.
The Abreu to the Cards rumor is more than idle speculation; it seems some talks have taken place on that. Lboros doesn’t think the deal is a good fit economically or logically for the Cardinals, regardless.
Jason Marquis is as good as gone; Anthony Reyes is likely to stay.
Solid sources are saying the Cardinals are expected to sign A.J. Burnett soon, and lboros thinks that’s the most likely scenario.