Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Barry Bonds
The biggest name remaining in the free agent market is one Barry Lamar Bonds. The most recent rumored destinations for the all-time home run champ have been the Rays, Mets and even Japan. The Rays say there was never any serious consideration and the Mets say they are not interested.
The biggest question mark concerning Bonds is whether his production at age 43 is worth the circus that follows, both in the clubhouse and in the media. Yesterday at my home base, Rays Index, I contacted Chone Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way, and creator of the CHONE projection system. Smith had used his projection system to predict that the final regular season standings. The Rays are projected to win 89 games and finish third in the AL East, based on a considerable improvement in pitching and defense. The Mets are projected to win 92 games.
In an effort to estimate Bonds’ on-field impact, we asked Smith to substitute Bonds into the Rays and Mets lineups and rerun his projections. With Bonds in the lineup, both the Mets and the Rays improved by 3 games in the standings and approximately 30 net runs (As an Angels fan, Smith kindly refused to run the same projection for the Mariners or the A’s, lest those teams start thinking Bonds is a good idea).
If the Rays are indeed an 87-89 win team (PECOTA projects 88 wins), then Bonds might be a difference-maker. While signing Bonds may indeed be a headache, the difference between 89 wins and 92 wins for the Rays could be the difference between the 2007 Brewers (just missed) and the 2007 Rockies (World Series). And the difference between 92 wins and 95 wins for the Mets could be the difference between the 2007 Mets (one game short) and the 2007 Phillies (one game not short).
To quote one commenter from Rays Index, "Media scrutiny is only hard if you suck. If you’re good, it’s fun."
Let’s take a look at what else is being said about Bonds in the Blogosphere…
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- Squawking Baseball thinks the Angels could be a solid fit for Bonds.
- Baseball Musings will miss Bonds if he doesn’t play this year, and lists several teams that should consider signing him.
- Amazin’ Avenue explores "The Bonds Market" and express their desire for the Mets to sign the aging slugger, calling the apparent blackballing "disgraceful".
- Mike’s Mets doesn’t see Bonds as a clubhouse cancer and thinks he would be good for the Mets, but does not think he will fit from a financial perspective.
- Bugs & Cranks feels that the Dodgers would have a much better shot at winning the NL West if they signed Bonds.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
Odds and Ends: Baldelli, Salcedo, Piazza, Rivera
Time for today’s linkage.
- RotoAuthority looks for some fantasy baseball sleepers at second base.
- Rocco Baldelli has a rare muscle condition that does not allow his body to recover after a short workout. He’ll hit the DL but won’t retire. The Rays will likely decline his option but maybe they’ll re-sign him at a lower price.
- The Indians are in the running for 16 year-old shortstop Edward Salcedo, but the Boras client remains unsigned.
- IGN has their own What Might’ve Been type series, and recently they took a look at the Mike Piazza trades of 1998. Haven’t heard much on Piazza these last few weeks.
- The Angels seem likely to keep Juan Rivera, as he could be their left fielder in ’09 and ’10.
- I’m been devouring The Worst Team Money Could Buy, a book by Bob Klapisch and John Harper chronicling the ’92 Mets. I am a bit too young to remember that team. It’s a hilarious look at that trainwreck, with all sorts of off-the-record quotes. You really get a feel for what it’s like following the Mets beat, too.
Stark’s Latest: Davis, Valdez, Roberts, Lofton
ESPN’s Jayson Stark checks in with a blog entry jam-packed with rumorage.
- Stark says the Giants are shopping Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Steve Kline, Randy Winn, Tyler Walker, Rajai Davis, and Merkin Valdez. The vets we knew about; the last two are a surprise. Probably stems from both being out of options.
- Brian Roberts update: Stark talked to a club official who’s in touch with the Cubs and O’s. That guy expects a deal to be done next week. Plus, Stark sees the O’s as an active suitor for Kyle Lohse at the right price.
- Stark confirms the rumblings that the Rays have checked in on Kenny Lofton. Lofton could be a nice bargain this year for a couple mil.
Odds and Ends: Loretta, German, Belliard, Baldelli
- An update to the Ken Rosenthal article discussed earlier suggests that either Esteban German or Ron Belliard would be better, cheaper alternatives for the Dodgers than Joe Crede or Brandon Inge. It would take less to get Belliard or German, they’re paid less, and either of them could back up Jeff Kent, 40, at second base in addition to playing third. Both players are "attracting the Dodgers’ interest" according to Rosenthal.
- The Baltimore Sun is now reporting that the Orioles have an interest in Mark Loretta. Hopefully this is a sign that the Brian Roberts-to-Chicago saga will soon mercifully come to a conclusion. Loretta apparently isn’t slated for regular duty in a Houston infield that now features Miguel Tejada, Kaz Matsui and Ty Wigginton, which is why he might be in play. The Astros sent a scout to watch the O’s on Sunday.
- Rocco Baldelli spoke with Joe McDonald of the Providence Journal about his myriad health problems, and dispelled some of the more creative speculation about him. He didn’t, however, address the big decision on his future that the Rays will be forced to make in the coming weeks. As discussed here a couple of days ago, and again in Sunday’s St. Petersburg Times, the decision on whether the team will pick up Baldelli’s 2009 option has to be made by April 1st. The Times suggests the Rays will pass, meaning a $4MM buyout.
Posted by Andrew Stoeten of Drunk Jays Fans.
Baldelli’s Hamstrings May Open Door For Lofton
With Rocco Baldelli appearing only twice in spring games this year, the Rays may consider reviving talks with free agent outfielder Kenny Lofton. Tampa Bay’s right field and fourth outfielder depth is light enough that they’ve begun to look at infielders Joel Guzman and Ben Zobrist at left and right field, respectively.
Ray’s manager Joe Maddon won’t even guess when Baldelli will return to full-time play. Baldelli is nursing sore hamstrings this spring. He’s expected to play right field, if he can run, and will split time with Cliff Floyd and Jonny Gomes at DH.
Given Floyd’s fragility, the Rays will be taking quite a chance if they depend on that combination. Floyd has appeared in 150 games once in the last ten years. Baldelli appeared in 150 games in his rookie year but hasn’t in the three years since.
Decision Time On Baldelli
Back on December 23rd, I asked Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times what kind of trade value Rocco Baldelli had. Of course, Topkin told me his trade value was miniscule. Topkin also said:
An interesting sidenote is that the Rays have to decide by April 1 on his 2009 option, picking between a $4MM buyout or a $6MM salary AND then being on the hook for his combined 2010-11 option or a $2MM buyout.
Quite a pickle, and I think the fact that this decision must be made in three weeks was lost in the shuffle. MLBTR contributor Cork Gaines took a look at the Baldelli situation on his blog today. As Cork suggests, perhaps some kind of renegotiation is in order.
Pirates Talking Long-Term With Snell, LaRoche
According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Pirates have reached out to Ian Snell‘s agent about a long-term deal. Snell’s salary will increase drastically in 2009 as he reaches arbitration. For that reason, I’ve wondered whether he might be next offseason’s available young ace. Jamie Shields‘ deal could serve as a guide if the Bucs just want to buy out Snell’s three arb years from 2009-11. Shields gave up his arb years for $13.75MM, though the last of those involves a club option. $13-14MM (not necessarily guaranteed) seems to be the going rate for a young pitcher’s arb years, looking at Shields, Chris Young, and Matt Cain.
Additionally, the Bucs are talking to first baseman Adam LaRoche about an extension. LaRoche is set to reach free agency after the ’09 season. I was surprised to see that LaRoche’s career numbers aren’t much different from Justin Morneau‘s (granted Morneau has played in the tougher league and has an MVP trophy). Morneau recently gave up four free agent years at $14MM a pop; LaRoche should ask for at least $10MM per year for 2010 and beyond. Looking at Morneau’s contract reminds me that he is far from a bargain.
Finally, Kovacevic says talks with Matt Capps have "fizzled" because Manny Corpas‘ deal raised the bar. That’s odd, because Corpas has a team-friendly contract. He gets $12.25MM over his arb years, with the last of those a club option. Then the Rockies have a club option on Corpas’ first potential year of free agency at $8MM.
Best Fit For Bonds: Atlanta?
UPDATE: Martin Johnson at The Root is taking a path-less-tread by calling for a "happy ending" to the Barry Bonds saga. He says Bonds can still hit, and where better than Pittsburgh, a city in need of attendance since Bonds left in 1992. Personally, I can’t see how Bonds can be anything more than a DH, which nixes this suggestion. Further, San Fran teammate Dave Roberts was quoted saying Bonds "is going to want to be in a situation where he can win," and the Pirates are not that. Still, Martin says,
"Bonds should offer his services to his first pro team, The Pittsburgh Pirates, and offer to play for the league minimum salary… Bonds has made $188 million playing baseball; in the name of boosting his public image, he can afford a pay cut."
What better way to start your week than with a Barry Bonds update? I’ll start by pointing to Tim’s recent survey that the majority of MLBTR readers (60.2%) don’t think Bonds will play for a Major League team in 2008.
Still, Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune explores the best fits for Bonds. Somehow, the Rays are still being considered an option here. We’re going back and forth at this point, as Peter Gammons had last reported there was nothing there, so I’m sorry if I’m beating a dead horse.
"Last week’s mini-firestorm about the Tampa Bay Rays’ interest in Bonds was not a smoke screen. Despite general manager Andrew Friedman saying this was a "non-story" there’s no doubt the St. Petersburg Times had it right. The Rays, especially principal owner Stuart Sternberg, are monitoring the availability of Bonds, who still might be capable of a 40-homer season at Tropicana Field."
Rogers notes payroll isn’t a hurdle for Tampa Bay. And he tosses in his opinion:
"If Friedman wanted to really roll the dice, he would sign Bonds and then trade his most marketable chip, Carl Crawford, for pitching and prospects."
Rogers then explores the idea of Atlanta being the best possible destination, "The best fit of all for Bonds could be in Atlanta, however, with a hole in left field and Bobby Cox to keep him in line."
Managers On The Hot Seat
It is a slow news day, so we are going to venture a bit off the beaten path…As spring training is now in full swing, a number of managers may have their jobs on the line during the ’08 season. Three managers are in the final year of their deals and another 12 managers have two years left on their contracts. This second group will be due either an extension or a pink slip next winter as few teams are willing to play out a season with a lame-duck manager. Therefore, any manager with two years remaining on their contracts (including options) will likely have their fate determined prior to the ’09 season.
Ignoring managers that may be on the hot seat for other reasons (i.e. Willie Randolph), here is a list of managers that could potentially have their jobs on the line in ’08 based on their current contract situations. (Numbers in parentheses represent the number of years remaining on current contract)
- Cecil Cooper, HOU (2)
- Bob Geren, OAK (1+1 team option)
- John Gibbons, TOR (1)
- Bobby Cox, ATL (1)
- Ned Yost, MIL (1+1 team option)
- Tony LaRussa (2)
- Bruce Bochy (2)
- John McLaren, SEA (1)
- Fredi Gonzalez, FLA (2)
- Dave Trembley, BAL (1+1 team option)
- Bud Black, SD (1+1 team option)
- Joe Maddon, TB (2)
- Clint Hurdle, COL (2)
- Jim Leyland, DET (2)
- Ron Gardenhire, MIN (2)
Taking a closer look at the list…Of the managers in the final year of their deal, Cox will be back if he chooses. LaRussa and Leyland may very well enter ’09 without new deals considering their ages. Yost, Gardenhire, Hurdle and Black look like locks for extensions prior to ’09. However, the remaining eight names on the list (Cooper, Geren, Bochy, Gonzalez, Trembley, Maddon, Gibbons, McLaren) may very well be managing for their jobs in ’08.
By Cork Gaines
Wanted: Major League Ready Shortstops
Both the San Francisco Giants and the Cincinnati Reds have lost their starting shortstops to injury recently. Omar Vizquel had surgery to remove torn cartilage from his knee, while Alex Gonzalez‘ ‘sore knee’ turned out to be a broken knee. In both cases, the players are not expected to be ready for opening day and neither team appears to have a major league-ready shortstop ready to step in. The best options for the Giants appear to be Kevin Fransden and Rich Aurilia. Fransden is a natural second baseman while Aurilia has not been a regular shortstop since 2004. The Reds are now stuck with Juan Castro and Jeff Keppinger. Like Fransden, Keppinger is a second baseman by trade and Castro is a journeyman shortstop with a career OPS of .605.
McCovey Chronicles recently suggested that the Giants needed to make a trade and their target should be Ben Zobrist of the Tampa Bay Rays. Zobrist, a switch-hitter, has impressive minor league numbers that have yet to register at the big league level. Zobrist posted a .428 OBP in the minors with a 176:234 strikeout to walk ratio. However, in parts of two seasons with the Rays, Zobrist has seen those numbers drop to .234 and 47:13 respectively. Now Zobrist is stuck behind Jason Bartlett whom the Rays acquired to shore up their defensive deficiencies. In addition super-prospect Reid Brignac may be ready for the big leagues in 2009.
That leads us to two questions: 1) What would it take to land Zobrist from the Rays? For the Giants, Pat Misch might get the deal done. For the Reds, maybe Bill Bray. 2) Are there any better options out there that either the Giants or the Redlegs could land to fill their holes at shortstop? Let us know in the comments.