Marlins Still After Gathright
Today, a source close to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays updated me on their efforts to trade Joey Gathright. The word is that the Marlins and Dodgers are the frontrunners, while the Rangers and Cubs are still "in the mix."
Three days ago, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com mentioned that the Marlins could send Scott Olsen to the Rays for Gathright. Gathright essentially is Juan Pierre, and the Marlins would have a formidable 1-5 in their order, believe it or not. Call me crazy, but the Fish are a few well-timed breakouts, reliever success stories, and a couple of miracles away from sniffing .500 in ’06. I know you’re probably bookmarking this story right now to disparage me at the end of the season for hinting that the Marlins could be a .500 team.
Anyway, it’s unclear to my source whether the Marlins actually offered Olsen for Gathright. He did mention that the Devil Rays like Olsen a lot, despite his late-season elbow inflammation. Olsen flashed huge strikeout potential in the minors, and jumped past Triple A this year to start four games for the Marlins.
The Dodgers’ interest probably hinges on Kenny Lofton‘s decision, as L.A. has an offer out to him. The Cubs seem an unlikely destination. Plugging in Gathright could result in a severely power-deficient outfield. Gathright would be a nice fit for Texas, and could score a boatload of runs fronting that lineup.
White Sox Interested In Blalock?
In today’s Chicago Tribune, Phil Rogers lays out some options for the White Sox to further bolster their club. According to Rogers:
"The most transparent scenarios are a starter and Joe Crede to Texas for a package fronted by left-handed-hitting third baseman Hank Blalock (signed for a highly reasonable $13.7 million for the next three years with a $6.2 million option in 2009); a starter and Juan Uribe to Baltimore for Miguel Tejada—not that likely—or a starter to Baltimore for a package of young talent in a deal that makes Tejada happier about staying put.
When Williams trades one of his starters, then judge how the return stacks up against Young, not the starter traded.
Young for Blalock?
Williams’ cell phone ought to be shipped to Cooperstown if he can pull that one off."
While Garland has more of a future ahead of him, Contreras may be easier to trade. The Cuban is 34 years old, a number in which I don’t have full confidence. His contract demands won’t be as prohibitive as Garland’s. Garland is a more verified 26 years of age, so he’ll want a deal twice as long as Contreras’s. Garland is a year younger than Barry Zito, and may be a comparable pitcher despite Zito’s track record and reputation. If a 28 year-old injury prone A.J. Burnett is worth five years and $55MM, doesn’t that make Zito and Garland worth even more?
I imagine Zito and Garland could each land six-year deals through free agency. Their agents will probably start the negotiations at seven years. Garland could get 6/66 and Zito 6/72. Any team trading for one of these starters will probably want some sort of contract agreement in place before doing so. After all, the purpose of acquiring Garland or Zito is mainly to gain an exclusive chance to negotiate before the pitcher hits free agency.
Phil Rogers’s Texas Rangers scenario is a good one, given that GM Jon Daniels at least entertained offering Burnett a huge contract. The Rangers sorely lack starting pitching depth, and Hank Blalock is very expendable. Would Jon Garland and his sinker be a good fit pitching the next six years in Texas? Not really. Despite a big reduction in his overall home run rate this year, he was still right at league average in that department. His rate was higher at home, of course, and it would remain high at Ameriquest.
The average groundball to flyball ratio in the American League was 1.59 in 2005. Garland’s 1.82 mark isn’t anything special despite his sinker. Garland’s main asset is that he’s durable, making at least 32 starts in each of the last four seasons. He’s never had the pressure of being anything close to the ace of a staff, and he’s had exactly one above average season. For Daniels to swap his best trading chip in Blalock for essentially six expensive years of Garland is certainly a risky proposition.
I can’t agree with Phil Rogers when he says Kenny Williams’s cell phone should go to Cooperstown for a Garland-Blalock trade. While Blalock is young and powerful, he’s obviously been greatly aided by playing in Ameriquest. He’d have that same crutch in U.S. Cellular, but is that an improvement over Joe Crede? Crede was worth one more win than Blalock in 2005, something I hope Kenny Williams is aware of.
A better swap for the Sox might be Jose Contreras for Phillies left fielder Pat Burrell. Burrell is 29 and probably has a few good seasons left in him. He knows how to draw walks, and could hit 40 HR with U.S. Cellular as a home park. Scott Podsednik would look a lot better coming off the bench than starting at a power position. Burrell has $36.5MM left on his contract over the next three years, so the Phils might have to send over $10MM to make the deal work. A swap involving Garland and Carl Crawford could also make sense, if the D-Rays think they can compete in 2007.
Rangers Snag Vicente Padilla
Spurned in his attempts to trade for Adam Eaton, new Rangers GM settled for right-handed starter Vicente Padilla to fill in the back end of his rotation. Padilla was going to be nontendered by the Phillies anyway, so Daniels only had to give up a player to be named later, likely a C level prospect.
At his best, Padilla went 14-11 with a 3.28 ERA for the 2002 Phillies. That year was marked by low home run and walk rates for Padilla. He’s still only 28, and 2005 was an injury-plagued year. Triceps tendonitis and other maladies may have contributed to Padilla’s worst walk rate since 2000. Ameriquest Field will not be a better pitching environment than Citizens Bank Park; in fact both parks inflate home runs about 20%.
Padilla will probably post an ERA a bit worse than league average (league average is 4.35) and could provide 200 innings for the Rangers. At $4MM or so, that’s quite a bargain. Scott Elarton will be at least that bad and is looking for a three-year deal. Padilla marks a second solid acquisition by Daniels after his fleecing of Jim Bowden for Brad Wilkerson.
Astros Or Retirement For Clemens
Plenty of buzz going around about Roger Clemens entertaining new teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, or Rangers for the 2006 season. According to my Astros source, however, Clemens is again choosing between the Astros and retirement.
Houston Chronicle writer Brian McTaggart has confirmed that Brad Ausmus is very close to signing a two-year pact with the Astros. It’s well known that Clemens does not want to pitch for any other catcher, and the Red Sox tried in vain to lure Ausmus out East. Boston was never really an option for Ausmus, who wants to be a starter and considered only San Diego as an alternative.
According to my Astros source, look for Clemens to return to Houston and start taking advantage of some of his previously negotiated perks. In 2006, Clemens would skip more road trips to stay with his family. Look for Roger to pull a few strings and try to get the Astros to promote his son Koby to the Corpus Christi Hooks (Double A club located in Texas). Third baseman Koby has played just nine games at Class A with the Tri City ValleyCats in New York. In addition, Roger has a ten-year agreement to work for the Astros after retirement to work with the club’s young players.
After pitching in the World Baseball Classic, expect Clemens to take a few months off and return to the Astros around mid-June. His salary will certainly be less than $18MM, and the team will hopefully have acquired the improved offensive players Clemens desires.
Nationals Snag Soriano, Will Remain At 2B
ESPN is reporting that Jim Bowden picked up Alfonso Soriano for the Nationals and sent Brad Wilkerson and Terrmel Sledge over to the Rangers.
The trade is a pretty fair one by my off-the-cuff analysis. I’ll probably have some player projections on RotoAuthority tomorrow, given that players are moving from an extreme pitchers’ park to a home run haven.
Once extra piece of information that we’ve managed to acquire contradicts a statement in the ESPN report. According to ESPN:
"With Jose Vidro already entrenched at second base, it’s believed that the Nationals would move Soriano to left field."
My source is saying that the Nationals’ front office is quietly concerned that Jose Vidro may be done for his career. Expect Soriano to see most of his time at second base in years to come.
Soriano, Benson, Casey Deals Close
Wow, I stepped out for a couple of hours and a billion trades/rumors occurred. Here’s three, with more in-depth analysis to come tomorrow.
Peter Gammons is saying the Dodgers are close to acquiring Alfonso Soriano for Jonathan Broxton. I suppose Soriano could take over at third base; he’s yet to play a Major League game in the outfield. Broxton would fit well in either the starting rotation or the ‘pen. The hefty right-hander split time between the roles at Double A Jacksonville in 2005. One of Broxton’s specialties (besides the palmball) is limiting the home run, a trait that will come in handy in a ballpark that inflates homers by 19%.
The Mets dumped Kris Benson and his salary on the Royals, acquiring southpaw reliever Jeremy Affeldt and perhaps Mike MacDougal. Affeldt has pretty lousy control and just an OK strikeout rate for a reliever; I’m not sure why everyone’s saying that he’ll shore up the Mets’ middle relief. MacDougal at leasts boasts a career 8.5 K/9. As for Benson, Kauffman Stadium isn’t much worse of a place to pitch than Shea. But with the Royals’ defense behind him, he’ll still see his ERA go up at least half a run.
The Reds unloaded Sean Casey‘s salary on the Pirates. Hopefully Casey will just be a stopgap until Brad Eldred learns to take a walk. Dave Williams gives up plenty of homers and allows plenty of baserunners, so his transition to Great American Ballpark will be anything but great. The move probably takes Austin Kearns off the market, as the outfielder logjam is solved now that Adam Dunn will play first.
Soriano for Milledge and Trachsel Proposed
We have some new details from my Mets source concerning a possible trade of Alfonso Soriano to the Mets. The latest report is that the Mets would send Lastings Milledge and Steve Trachsel to the Rangers for Soriano. The deal would be contingent on Soriano signing a long-term extension to play second base (not outfield).
The 35 year-old Trachsel would be a decent, affordable addition to the back-end of the Texas rotation. Jon Daniels may express concerns about Trachsel’s performance away from Shea Stadium in his last full season (2004). That year, Trachsel posted a 5.65 ERA with 16 HR allowed on the road. On the other hand, Trachsel was actually better on the road than at Shea in 2003. Trachsel’s 2006 option will pay him anywhere from $2.5MM-7MM based on innings pitched. He could be worth 4-5 wins in 2006.
Lastings Milledge was ranked the 4th best outfield prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus before the 2005 season. He did nothing to change that perception in ’05, batting .318 at Single and Double A stops. He projects to be worth 3 wins at the Major League level in 2006.
The OBP deficient Alfonso Soriano would be a curious addition to the Mets’ lineup. He was especially poor away from Ameriquest in 2005, hitting .224/.265/.374 (AVG/OBP/SLG). The power splits are tough to decipher, as Ameriquest is known to boost HRs for right-handed hitters by only about 6%. Soriano hit .315/.355/.656 in Texas in ’05.
Defensively, Soriano placed 17th among regular second basemen in range factor in 2005. According to Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic, which combines offense and defense, Soriano was the 19th best second baseman in baseball in 2005. He projects to be worth 6 wins in 2006 and should get a raise to about $10MM through arbitration.
Sources:
Baseball Prospectus
Bill James Handbook 2006
Cot’s Baseball Contracts
Beckett Trade Nearly Done
It’s being reported in the Dallas Morning News that John Danks will be the prospect sent over by Texas and the deal is near completion.
While lefthanded, Danks doesn’t have the same upside as his Double A Frisco teammate Thomas Diamond. Both starters struggled in 2005. Danks gave up a ton of hits, while Diamond had major control problems.
Click here to see our 2006 projections for Josh Beckett as a Texas Ranger.
Beckett and Lowell for Blalock
I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the huge blockbuster that might go down today. Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post told us late last night:
"In what could be the first step of a major housecleaning in Florida, the Marlins and Rangers are close to completing a trade that would send Beckett and Lowell to Texas for third baseman Hank Blalock and a top pitching prospect, two baseball sources said Friday night.
The Marlins are asking for either left-hander John Danks, Texas’ first-round pick in 2003, or right-hander Thomas Diamond, the team’s first-round pick in 2004."
The article goes on to say that the deal could fall apart if Texas refuses to include either pitching prospect. My guess is that the Marlins are demanding Diamond, who has a higher ceiling than Danks and could project as a #2 starter.
Both pitchers had lackluster years after being bumped up to Double A.
This may signal a widespread salary dump for the Marlins. We’ve all heard the rumors around Carlos Delgado, Paul Lo Duca, and Juan Pierre. One name I haven’t heard much is Luis Castillo. You have to figure Castillo is on the market as well with a weak 2B free agent class.
Rangers, Cubs, Reds Covet Jarrod Washburn
There seems to be a consensus among sportswriters that Jarrod Washburn will end up a Texas Ranger. I’ve spoken to Chicago Sun-Times writer Chris De Luca about Washburn, and he thinks new GM Jon Daniels is willing to overpay for a decent starter this winter.
Steve Phillips also picked the Rangers as Washburn’s destination. We all agree on his worth – a bit overrated after the 3.20 ERA, but a useful if somewhat overpaid 3rd starter. I ranked him 19th on the RotoAuthority Top 50 Free Agents List, just behind Jeff Weaver.
De Luca also thinks the Cubs are a possible suitor given Washburn’s desire to play near his hometown of LaCrosse, Wisconsin. The Brewers seemed like a logical choice, but De Luca informed me that Milwaukee has stated that they will not pursue Washburn. GM Doug Melvin has publicly stated that he won’t pay $8MM+ for a starter after the lackluster results of last year’s free agent signings.
It’s sounding more and more like the Cubs will come up with another starter to add to the stable. Then they’ll deal from that depth to acquire an outfielder. GM Jim Hendry may be more inclined to make a big splash with A.J. Burnett than give a lot of money to Washburn. Unlike last season when he had to get Sammy Sosa off the books, Hendry will act early and often. The Cardinals’ interest in Burnett may motivate Hendry to make a better offer to the starter. The Cards’ flirtation with Greg Maddux a few years back certainly influenced his ultimate return to Chicago.
A dark horse in the Washburn sweepstakes is the Reds. We know they’ll bring in some sort of starter – ESPN expects Cincinnati to make a run at Paul Byrd. Washburn is younger than Byrd, but Byrd allows fewer baserunners due to pinpoint control. One thing’s for sure: Cincinnati is a lot closer to LaCrosse than Arlington is.
If the Reds pass on both Washburn and Byrd, expect Kenny Rogers to be on their radar. He’s shown an above average ability to limit the long ball, a skill the Reds have come to appreciate after the Eric Milton debacle.