Teams Still Interested In Kerry Wood
Just got word from a solid source, an insider who had previously indicated the Devil Rays’ interest in Ervin Santana back in December. This time, he’s got some info concerning oft-injured Cubs pitcher Kerry Wood.
Word is that despite Wood’s awful health record, Jim Hendry is shopping him and has received some interest. The Rangers would like to add Wood and may give up John Danks or Thomas Diamond to get him.
Danks, a 21 year-old southpaw, has made some progress in his second stint in Double A. His strikeout rate is way up and his control has improved, though his home run prevention has worsened. Danks is mentioned as a potential #2 starter one day by Baseball America, and should earn a promotion to Triple A this year if he can further improve upon his 4.41 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
Diamond is a 23 year-old righty with a mid-90s fastball and a good changeup. He’s also done better in his second stint at Double A Frisco, managing a 4.15 ERA despite his 1.48 WHIP. Diamond has whiffed over 11 batters per nine innings, but his walks per nine has soared past 6. Diamond and Danks are ranked #2-3 in strikeouts in the Texas League, behind only Juan Gutierrez in the Astros’ system.
Wood would have to approve a trade to any club, and the Rangers seem more likely than another possible suitor: the Yankees. I’m told the Yanks are poking around as well, but don’t have details on any offers. Given that Wood’s $13.5MM option will most certainly be bought out for 2007, a trade to Texas would be contingent on a restructured agreement for 2007 with Wood.
Wood is no lock to be traded, and could turn into an effective, healthy pitcher if used in the bullpen. The Cubs are certainly open to the idea of retaining Wood for 2007 at a discounted price.
Clemens Signs, Nevin to Cubs
The long expected Roger Clemens signing with Houston has finally been made official. One less distraction; the sideshow is finally over. Until Clemens decides there’s a slight chance he pitches in 2007. The Astros are 6.5 games back and Clemens should provide a several-win boost over the likes of Fernando Nieve.
The Cubs are 11 games under .500, 12.5 out of first, but they’re not giving up. Jim Hendry just swapped Jerry Hairston for Phil Nevin, a clear win now type move for a team with little chance of winning now. Cubs fans shouldn’t mind the deal, given that the Rangers should take on most of Nevin’s salary. Would’ve been nice if Hendry could’ve pulled this off a month ago though.
Finally, Pat Burrell was curiously absent from the Philadelphia lineup given all the trade rumors swirling about. Burrell makes plenty of sense for the Yanks if they can get him, but they can’t afford to give up any decent starting pitching.
Royal Rumblings
Today’s KC Star reports this morning that the Royals, with the first waiver wire claim, will probably snag Tony Graffanino to plug into a utility role once again. They have a spare $4-5MM with which to do so. Take that, Mets!
Furthermore, a new Royals source of mine (yes, they do exist) mentions that lefties Jimmy Gobble and Jeremy Affeldt are currently on the trading block. Mike Wood may also be available. According to the source, a deal might happen before the end of the week.
Affeldt is probably the most intriguing of the bunch. The 26 year-old has a 4.53 career ERA and 6.9 K/9 in 329 innings. He’s currently slotted in as the Royals’ fourth starter after relieving exclusively in 2005. According to RotoWire, the return of Mark Redman and Zach Greinke may push him back out of the rotation.
Back in November, Affeldt’s name was tossed around in Kevin Mench rumors. The Rangers could still use a starter, especially one with Affeldt’s extreme groundball tendencies. Although they already have a host of injury-prone starters in the current rotation. The Royals seem fairly committed to Emil Brown and his atrocious left field defense, but you have to figure they’d want Mench if at all possible. He could hit twice as many homers as Brown. Mench’s $2.8MM salary could probably be squeezed into the payroll for 2006.
Gobble? Well he’s fairly young and he won nine games once. He looked kind of promising when he was called up in 2003. Wood? It was nothing short of a miracle that he managed a 4.46 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP. Maybe he can keep it under 5 this year but I doubt it.
MLB Free Agents 2007: Eric Gagne
Recently I got to thinking about Eric Gagne. 30 years old. An unstoppable relief ace from 2002-04 (a 1.79 ERA and 13.3 K/9 over 247 innings. Imagine if he did that in one season as a starter! Roto Immortality.) Tommy John surgery in 1997 plus another cleanup type surgery last summer. A $10MM salary for 2006 with a $12MM option for 2007.
With Scott Boras as his agent, Gagne may elect to void that ’07 option. Or the Dodgers may simply choose not to exercise it. The Dodgers are one probably the only team in baseball with two established "closers" on the roster. No, Jose Mesa and Braden Looper don’t count. Danys Baez is an excellent backup that will allow the Dodgers to limit Gagne’s innings this season. But should a decent setup man emerge from Yhency Brazoban, Franquelis Osoria, and Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers may just send Gagne packing this summer.
So which contending teams have questionable closers?
Red Sox. I have to assume Epstein doesn’t see Papelbon as a long-term reliever/closer candidate. He’ll probably be in the rotation by July, and Keith Foulke may give out by then. The pen has some depth, but lacks a relief ace. Many folks see Craig Hansen closing out games by year’s end, and I don’t disagree. Still, if he stumbles a bit in his first Major League season, the Sox could take a crack at Gagne.
White Sox. Bobby Jenks and Dustin Hermanson are wild cards right now. With only Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte as dependable options, Kenny Williams could go after the cream of the crop in Gagne. His trading chips will probably have to come from his Major League roster this time.
Rangers. Should Francisco Cordero happen to go down this year, I’m not sure if Texas will be content to give the ball to Akinori Otsuka, Joaquin Benoit, or Frank Francisco in the 9th inning.
Braves. This really wouldn’t be their style, though Gagne would really solidify the relief corps.
Phillies. What’s Plan B if Tom Gordon‘s elbow gives out? The Phils need Ryan Madson in the rotation and probably don’t trust Arthur Rhodes.
This is all just speculation, but watch the rumors fly this summer if Baez and Gagne are both pitching well and an injury to a starter or position player creates a need for the Dodgers.
Thanks to The Closer Watch for the current bullpen depth charts.
Assessing The Texas Rotation
The Rangers’ starting rotation currently consists of Kevin Millwood, Adam Eaton, Vicente Padilla, Kameron Loe, and Juan Dominguez. Guys like C.J. Wilson, John Wasdin, and knuckleballer R.A. Dickey could enter the picture as well.
The front three, while health risks, are fairly solid. I know the Rangers are enamored of Loe following his 3.42 ERA in 92 innings last year. But the lack of Ks and abnormally low accompanying hit rate spell darker days ahead. Still, if Loe can keep his ERA in the low 4s the Rangers would be ecstatic. So he’s not a problem.
Dominguez just needs to keep his ERA under 5 to maintain the fifth starter spot. I think he’s capable of that. Still, if he or Loe flames out or one of the front three gets injured, the Rangers would hate to turn to Wilson, Wasdin, or Dickey again. I think it’s highly likely that they’ll need to get a lot of starts out of someone not in the current front five.
The safe bet: acquire another veteran starter and use Dominguez in a swing role. The Rangers have several options here that could be helpful.
According to this morning’s Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Texas is interested in reacquiring John Thomson. Thomson is a control pitcher who’s been about league average in preventing the longball. He ate 217 innings for the Rangers in 2003 while posting a 4.85 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. The 32 year-old makes $4.75MM and is in his contract year. The Braves are considering moving him and putting Kyle Davies into the rotation. In 2005, Thomson missed several months after tearing a tendon in his middle finger.
Then there’s Jason Marquis, also an impending free agent. He can probably provide 200 innings of a 4.50 ERA, which means a lot in Texas. Swapping Kevin Mench for Marquis could make some sense.
Other than those two, there’s the pie-in-the-sky idea of luring Roger Clemens. Seems quite unlikely but would obviously be ideal. Jose Contreras, Erik Bedard, Matt Clement, and Bronson Arroyo are on the market for the right price. And though it’s a slim chance, if there’s one team for which Kerry Wood might waive his no-trade clause in July, it’s probably the Rangers.
Rangers Interested In Durazo
For one reason or another, free agent DH Erubiel Durazo has gotten little to no interest this offseason. Durazo struggled through a lost season in 2005, which culminated in July Tommy John surgery. He won’t be able to help a team until summertime.
Still, the lack of interest seems odd to me. Only the Rangers have considered him, and even then just as a minor-league invite to possibly back up Phil Nevin.
Durazo had an awesome age 30 season in 2004 for the Athletics: .321/.396/.523 in 511 ABs. I kept thinking the White Sox would go after him this offseason, not fully realizing that he’d undergone Tommy John. My ignorance caused me to rank Durazo 15th among all free agents this winter, probably my biggest gaffe on the list. Another point working against him is that he needs to be the DH, and there are only 14 such spots in baseball.
Nonetheless, Durazo will probably cost less than $1MM and could theoretically provide a .900 OPS in Texas for a half season.
Four Teams After Patterson
According to Bruce Levine on ESPN Radio 1000, four different teams have interest in Cubs former phenom Corey Patterson. The contenders are the Orioles, Mariners, Rangers, and Nationals. Hendry apparently wants at least two young players in return. A trade is possible next week.
Personally, I hope Hendry chooses quality over quantity here. Running down the teams:
The Orioles have nothing to lose by throwing Patterson in CF and seeing if he can reignite his career. The club doesn’t seem fond of Luis Matos at this point.
A trade to the Mariners would imply the departure of Jeremy Reed, which would be a curious decision by Bill Bavasi. We’ve heard in the past that he could go to Boston for various young starters.
The Rangers have a lot of outfielders – David Dellucci, Gary Matthews Jr., Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix, and Brad Wilkerson. Dellucci is a fit for DH, and the rest have all been mentioned in trade rumors. Why Daniels would want to replace one of the four with Patterson is beyond me.
Ryan Church is a better fit in right field for the Nationals, but that’s Jose Guillen‘s position. Brandon Watson and Marlon Byrd may not be regulars, so moving Church to left and giving Patterson a shot isn’t a terrible idea. Although Watson seems like a better option that Patterson based on his Triple A stats.
Thanks to Alex
Adam Eaton Rangers Projection
Adam Eaton is entering a hitter’s ballpark in a new league in his contract year. See how I think he’ll fare over at RotoAuthority.
Eaton is just one of hundreds of pitchers projected and profiled in the 2006 RotoAuthority Fantasy Baseball Guide, available in January.
Adam Eaton Dealt To Rangers
Kevin Towers made a great trade today, acquiring promising youngsters Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez (plus Terrmel Sledge) for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka. I didn’t think a deal was imminent yesterday, but I also didn’t think Jon Daniels would surrender a comparable, younger pitcher in the trade.
In what way is Adam Eaton better than Chris Young? Putting their numbers side by side, I’d say Young is already the preferable pitcher. Their strikeout rates are comparable, and Young’s superior control results in fewer baserunners. Young’s durability is an unknown, but it couldn’t be much worse than Eaton’s. Eaton’s had a nice assist from Petco, while Young threw well in his initial exposure to the pitchers’ hell that is Ameriquest. Throw in the fact that Young is four years away from a big payday while Eaton is right around the corner, and this looks like Jon Daniels’s first misstep.
What’s more, Adrian Gonzalez is a better bet than Akinori Otsuka. Gonzalez hit .338/.399/.561 in his third crack at Triple A this year. He never stuck with the Rangers, but only received 192 at-bats in the Majors. He’s a useful player at his current level, and at 23 years old he can certainly improve.
Otsuka showed some serious signs of decline in his second Major League season. He’s 33 years old and had a dangerously bad walk rate in ’05. Strikeouts were down as well. He still may be helpful to the Texas bullpen, as he appears to keep the ball in the yard. But keep in mind that’s based on just 66 non-Petco Major League innings.
The Otsuka-Gonzalez part of the deal is still fairly reasonable in light of each team’s needs. Replacing Eaton with Young, however, heavily favors the Padres.
Adam Eaton On The Block
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick spoke to Adam Eaton last week, and his article definitely gives the vibe that the righthander won’t be staying in San Diego past 2006.
Eaton’s opinion of the Padres’ three-year, $17MM offer?
"It was almost like a slap in the face compared to what I’m capable of doing."
That’s an amusing statement. Here’s my translation:
"I’ve pitched almost 800 Major League innings and have posted a medicore 4.35 ERA for my career. I’ve never pitched more than 200 innings or had an ERA below 4 in a season, in a pitcher’s ballpark to boot. But since I’m under 30 and don’t completely suck, I’m worth at least $10MM per season. I’m insulted that you’ve only offered me $5MM per season."
Given that impressive resume, it’s no surprise teams are beating down the door to acquire Eaton. No, really, they are. These are the interested parties, according to Crasnick:
Rangers
Nationals
Tigers
Orioles
Red Sox
Cubs
Thoughts on a few of these suitors:
The Rangers have been shaky about including both Gerald Laird and Adrian Gonzalez to get a deal done, and they reportedly backed out of such a deal earlier this month. Eaton has been below average in home run prevention throughout his career, so I’m not sure he’s the best fit for Ameriquest. But Texas can’t count on Vicente Padilla to fill the void left by Kenny Rogers, so it’s likely they’ll bring another starter in this winter.
If Eaton could remain healthy, he’d give Washington solid starting pitching depth. 1-5, it’d go John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Eaton, Brian Lawrence, and Ryan Drese. Top prospect Mike Hinckley will need some time before he’s ready to step in. A swap of Ryan Church for Eaton sounds like fair value to me, and Church would be a nice fit in left field for the Pads.
I’m not sure that the Cubs have what Padres GM Kevin Towers would want for Eaton. Plus, the point of Hendry adding another starter was seemingly to add a durable pitcher to the mix in the event that Kerry Wood can’t make 30 starts. Eaton is anything but durable.