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Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities

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There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.

1.  He’s an impending free agent making $8.5MM.

2.  Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).

3.  The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006.  Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506.  Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.

4.  Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs.  According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.

The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee.  Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name.  Here’s my own analysis of the possibilities.

Red Sox – If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.

Blue Jays – Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don’t have much going on in LF.  If they’re hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.

White Sox – I don’t see it.  They didn’t part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth.  I’m for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don’t think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.

Angels – It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny.  Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.

Braves – The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency.  J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind.  They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.

Cubs – Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely.  Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.

Cardinals – They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.

My ranking of the most likely suitors:  Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs.  I’d like to see your thoughts in the comments.

Alfonso Soriano Trade Possibilities

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Ken Rosenthal’s latest article mentions that a trade of Alfonso Soriano could happen, but Nationals are more likely to offer Soriano a long-term deal to convince him to become an outfielder.  I don’t doubt Rosenthal, but let’s take a look at some possible suitors for the second baseman.  I’ll assume that a trade signifies no position change.

First off, let’s narrow the field by looking at which teams lack an established 2B.

Blue Jays – Looks like Aaron Hill is the man at second base for 2006, and he’s a fairly solid hitter already.  Plus, Soriano probably isn’t Ricciardi’s type of player.

Mariners – Jose Lopez will get the nod entering this season, and he slugged .505 during a couple of stints at Triple A.  Giving him a full-time shot makes way more sense than trading for Soriano.

Marlins – Obviously the Fish aren’t dealing for Sori.

Mets – The Mets have made all sorts of splashes this winter, and adding a 2B isn’t top priority.  They’d like to cut their losses with Matsui, but Jeff Keppinger and Anderson Hernandez are viable in-house candidates.

Cubs – The Cubs have a three-headed monster at second base, and Soriano probably doesn’t fit into the budget at $12MM+ over several years.  The Cubs have a tradition of free swinging, and I could see Hendry trying this for 2006 if A)The Nationals win their arbitration case and/or eat some salary and B)the price is low.

Cardinals – St. Louis seems content with a battle between Junior Spivey and Aaron Miles for the 2B job.  Plus, Soriano doesn’t seem like the typical St. Louis team player. 

Padres – They’re going to let Mark Bellhorn, Eric Young, and Josh Barfield have a crack at 2B.  Plus, I can’t see how Soriano would fit into the budget.

Of course, the Nationals already had an established 2B when they traded for Soriano, so maybe this isn’t the best guide.  Rosenthal’s suggestion that Soriano will stay put is entirely logical once you break down the potential trade partners.  If a deal was struck, it’d mostly be a salary dump and I think the only teams with mild interest would be the Cubs and Mets.  Just my opinion. 

Trade Candidates Part 2

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Last time we looked at players in their contract year and trade possibilities.  Today we’ll open the field and see who else could be available.

Dealing Shea Hillenbrand or Eric Hinske would probably make sense for the Blue Jays.  It looks like the two will enter 2006 splitting DH duty for the Jays, and Hillenbrand may have twice as much value with the bat as Hinske.  The problem is figuring out which team actually has a need for a middling 1B/3B/DH type.

The Red Sox have six starters (seven if you think Papelbon is rotation-ready), but they shouldn’t be so eager to send one packing.  Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling are highly unlikely to make all of their starts.  Epstein might send Arroyo over to Tampa Bay for Julio Lugo anyway.  More likely, of course, is a signing of Alex Gonzalez and a trade of David Wells for a spare part or prospect.

A lot of folks think Carlos Pena still has some good seasons ahead of him.  For example, PECOTA projects him to hit .255/.349/.482 in 514 ABs in 2006.  The Tigers could probably use some sort of contingency plan in case Carlos Guillen misses time again.

The Diamondbacks have too many veteran OFs and no place for Carlos Quentin.  I’m sure Shawn Green and Luis Gonzalez are available, it’s just a matter of finding clubs to take most of their salaries.  Both outfielders are still contributors.

The Bengie Molina Sweepstakes

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Bengie Molina has strangely emerged as neglected free agent, facing very little interest from teams and a possible one year deal.  Coming off a career best .295/.336/.446 line, this is a curious situation.

Molina will be entering his age 32 season in 2006, and I’ve projected him at .289 with 17 HR next season.  While his defense is no great shakes, one would think a few clubs would come out ahead in offering him a reasonable two-year pact.  However, once you factor in defense, Molina ranked 15th among catchers in 2005 despite his solid showing at the plate.  He presents very little improvement for most ballclubs, and that seems to explain the lack of interest.

Should the Blue Jays pursue Molina?  Probably not.  He was only marginally better than Gregg Zaun in 2005, and he’ll definitely cost more.  I understand the idea is to platoon the players and have a sweet tandem like the Reds, but is Molina really going to want to do that? 

Honestly, these are the teams that I think stand to gain at least one win by adding Molina:

Royals
Angels
Rockies
Padres

The Royals already tossed their free cash at other marginal free agents, although Molina would’ve made some sense if the club is ready to give up on John Buck.  Most likely, they’ll keep Buck around longer than they should in order to pretend they didn’t get hosed in the Beltran trade.

The Angels really should’ve tried harder to bring Molina back.  Jeff Mathis is a huge question mark on a team for which a win or two could determine whether they make the playoffs.

The Rockies don’t really have a good reason to go out and sign a free agent.  But if I were Molina’s agent, I’d campaign hard to get him to Coors for a season.  He could play there for $4MM, hit 20 HR, and get that big deal he was looking for.  It’s been done before.

The Padres seem content with Doug Mirabelli and Dave Ross, who are both backups.  Given their lousy division and legitimate shot at the playoffs, I’m surprised they haven’t chased Molina a bit more.

The Dodgers would probably be the best fit, and they have inquired about Molina.  It would be a logical solution to bring Molina in for a year before the team evaluates the readiness of Dioner Navarro and Russell Martin.

A.J. Burnett/Curt Schilling Projections

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The latest from RotoAuthority: my Curt Schilling projection.  Also on the site is my A.J. Burnett projection from a couple of days ago.  Be sure to drop by and let me know what you think.

Also, I’ll be on WGN Radio 720 tonight at 7:30pm central time.  It’ll be cool to chat baseball with David Kaplan on Sports Central.  Be sure to tune in!

Buzz Around The Game

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Believe it or not, there’s a ton of stuff going on today that doesn’t involve the words "Prior" or "Tejada."

A tentative Troy Glaus trade has been reached.  The Diamondbacks dumped Glaus and his contract on the Blue Jays for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista.  Brandon Webb, far and away the most extreme groundball pitcher in baseball, benefits greatly from the addition of Hudson.  Another effect is the breakup of a highly rated defensive infield, at least in the eyes of Dayn Perry.  The Blue Jays now have a logjam of 1B/3B/DH guys, and Rosenthal speculates that Shea Hillenbrand is the most likely to go.  Should Shea stay true to his word, he’ll be a nice pickup.  It’s a homecoming for Miguel Batista; let’s hope the team correctly employs him as a starter.  Even with Glaus gone, the Diamondbacks still haven’t cleared up a corner outfield spot for #1 prospect Carlos Quentin.  The kid’s more than ready; let’s hope GM Josh Byrnes can unload Luis Gonzalez or Shawn Green as his next trick.   

Jason Johnson makes a sweet pickup for the Indians’ rotation.  Like Millwood last year, the Indians found a starting pitcher and only had to commit to one year.  In Paul Byrd, Cliff Lee, C.C. Sabathia, Jake Westbrook, and Johnson, the Tribe has built a deep rotation.  Combined, the five of them threw 1023 innings in 2005.  Seems Mark Shapiro has taken a page from Kenny Williams’s book, especially considering that he also has an excellent bullpen in place.

The Cards snagged Juan Encarnacion and Junior Spivey.  The reaction at Viva El Birdos to the revamped 2006 lineup:

"To be honest and blunt, i don’t see a single position where the Cardinals have meaningfully improved." 

That sentiment includes the bullpen and starting rotation as well.  Which reminds me – how can the Cardinals possibly justify blocking Anthony Reyes with Sidney Ponson?  The Ponson signing means one of three things:

1.  There are concerns about Reyes’s health that have not been revealed to the public.
2.  Jason Marquis will be traded this winter.
3.  Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan are so loathe put a rookie starter out there every fifth day that they’d prefer yet another fixer-upper.  Even if said fixer-upper had a 5.64 ERA over his last 346 innings.

Cardinals fans have got to be hoping for option #2.

Miguel Tejada Wants Out

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I had received a few tips from readers about Miguel Tejada possibly being traded.  I didn’t print anything because I couldn’t substantiate them.  Turns out those readers were on target; today Tejada said, "I think the best thing will be a change of scenery."  You can bet Tejada’s proclamation will get the hot stove buzzing once again.

It’s a strange thing for Tejada to say, given that the Orioles have several months left to improve their team.  He said that the Orioles "have not made any signings to strengthen the club."  If I were Ramon Hernandez, I’d be slightly offended by that remark.  And to think the two were teammates for so many years. 

Anyway, let’s begin with Tejada’s contract.  He’ll make $10MM in ’06, $12MM in ’07, $13MM in ’08, and $13MM in ’09.  That’s $48MM over four years.  He’d certainly snag more than that on the open market.  Tejada isn’t even 30 yet, and you know all about his offensive accolades and durability.  One mild sign of a possible decline is that Tejada slugged only .416 after the All-Star break in ’05, hitting seven home runs.  Still, that’s only 300 ABs and he may have felt uninspired. 

Here’s what we’re all wondering: where might Tejada end up?

Boston Red Sox.  Of course, they have a huge need for a shortstop and plenty of cash.  There’s even an article circulating saying that Tejada might want to play for the Red Sox.  The Sox could offer up Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia for starters.  The one little problem is that the Orioles still consider themselves competitive, and would probably be reluctant to trade within the division.  Back when the Red Sox dealt Curt Schilling and Brady Anderson to the Orioles for Mike Boddicker, the O’s were completely out of the race.

Chicago Cubs.  I’m thinking that if Jim Hendry removes Felix Pie from the "untouchables" list, the Orioles would seriously consider shipping Tejada their way.  If the Cubs included Ronny Cedeno to take Tejada’s vacant spot, a deal could get done quickly. (This is all speculation, of course).

New York Mets.  The Mets seem willing to give Jose Reyes all the time he needs to develop into a leadoff threat at shortstop.  But Omar’s been mortgaging the future this winter like it’s going out of style, so you think he’d at least inquire.  The Orioles’ response would probably include the words "Lastings" and "Milledge." 

Toronto Blue Jays.  If the Orioles do decide to deal within the AL East, the Blue Jays could get involved.  Russ Adams is OK, but Ricciardi might have interest anyway.

Houston Astros.  If ownership doesn’t mind the commitment, the ’Stros might try to allocate some of that now-available Clemens cash for a marquee shortstop.  Not sure if they’ve got the prospects to cut it, though.

What do you think?  Any teams I’ve left out?  What players would it take to get a deal done?

Thanks to Tom and Dennis

RotoWorld On Burnett: “Very Good Signing”

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Whoever writes the blurbs for RotoWorld provided a breath of fresh air with their little editorial on the A.J. Burnett signing:

"Since no one else is saying it, we will: this is a very good signing for the Blue Jays. Burnett is risky, but he’s the one pitcher out there capable of being a dominant force for the next several years. If you’re going to take a chance, it’s much better to spend $11 million per year on Burnett than $7 million-$8 million on Paul Byrd or Matt Morris. And, frankly, everyone on TV and the papers expressing shock and disbelief at this deal just hasn’t been paying attention. This doesn’t raise the market for everyone else. Every team in MLB knew that Burnett could and likely would get this type of contract as a free agent. Deal with it. The money is out there, and it’s going to get spent."

I don’t know who the author of this blurb was, but I have a hunch it was executive editor Matthew Pouliot.  I find myself agreeing with his thoughts – with the marginal difference in salary between Matt Morris and A.J. Burnett so small, why not pay Burnett $11MM and see if he becomes an ace?  We already know what Byrd and Morris are going to do next year.   

Brad Wilkerson To The Blue Jays?

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The rumors just never seem to stop.  Here’s one I haven’t mentioned yet.

Apparently the Blue Jays might want to trade for Brad Wilkerson.  According to the Washington Post:  "Ricciardi has long coveted Wilkerson, who is coming off a down year in which he hit just .248 with 147 strikeouts. Ricciardi said his team might be able to deal pitching, and the possible offers include swingman Miguel Batista or 26-year-old starter Dave Bush."

It seems that Wilkerson’s strikeout tendencies are undercutting his true value.  That’s great for teams looking to acquire him.  Wilkerson is still young and has a .365 career OBP.  He’s got 20-30 HR pop.  He’s durable, averaging 537 at-bats over the past four seasons.  He’s versatile, able to play all three outfield positions and first base.

If Ricciardi has lost patience with supposed future star Alex Rios, Wilkerson would be a great addition in right field.  Sending two mediocre players like Bush and Batista over to the Nationals would be well worth it.

The Cubs are also interested in acquiring Wilkerson.

Burnett, Hoffman, Manny, And More

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Latest hot stove from around baseball:

Jayson Stark and Jerry Crasnick are reporting from Dallas that the Blue Jays are close to signing A.J. Burnett to a five year, $55MM deal.  Seems Burnett’s agent is going back to Walt Jocketty one last time before finalizing the deal in an attempt to squeeze that fifth year out of him.  We’ll know soon enough if Jocketty caved in.

According to Hot Stove All-Star Ken Rosenthal, the Indians are nearing a deal with Trevor Hoffman for $21-24MM over three years.  For a team that got a solid year out of the decaying corpse of Bob Wickman, this seems a little unnecessary.  Especially since Casey Blake and Aaron Boone are currently penciled in as two automatic outs.

Just noticed today that for some reason, Omar Minaya has yet to do an interview with Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.  C’mon Omar, show some respect to baseball bloggers.  Cerrone would conduct a better interview than most newspaper writers for sure.  Matthew has also dug around in the whole Gaby Hernandez mess, and concluded that yes, the Marlins did indeed acquire him in the LoDuca trade.

On that topic, my Mets source tells me that the Marlins initially insisted on a Major League-ready player for LoDuca.  After the Mets declined that request, they asked for Gaby Hernandez.  The agents for Ramon Hernandez and Bengie Molina weren’t responding to Omar Minaya’s offers, so he agreed to the LoDuca deal.

The Red Sox wouldn’t mind hanging on to Manny, and my sources say that there’s a good chance a deal does not get done.  Only if a team coughs up true star power like, say, a Carlos Beltran, will the Sox send him packing.

Kris Benson should be shipped out of town pretty quickly.  Mets’ management doesn’t think Benson will ever be a consistent pitcher, and their distaste for him has nothing to do with his annoying wife. 

The possibility of the Mets acquiring Barry Zito is remote at best.  Billy Beane is demanding Lastings Milledge, and Zito’s agent is not guaranteeing a 72 hour window for a contract extension.  It is more likely that Minaya simply waits a year and signs Zito as a free agent.  Javier Vazquez is still very much on the radar, and his past failure under the New York spotlight does not faze the Mets.

Peter Gammons and others are saying the Mets’ signing of Mark Grudzielanek will be made official Thursday. 

Mets management is content to go into spring training with Xavier Nady and Victor Diaz duking it out for the right field spot. Let’s just hope Tike Redman doesn’t get regular playing time.

My earlier Andy Marte to the Twins blurb turned out to be more than idle speculation.  A source has confirmed that the Twins have offered Jesse Crain, Kyle Lohse, and unknown prospects for Marte.

Thanks to Brandon, John, and Brian.

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