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Blue Jays Announce Five Minor League Deals

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The Blue Jays today announced five minor league deals, including the previously reported deals for right-handers Julian Fernández and Casey Lawrence. The other three are right-hander Drew Hutchison, lefty Paul Fry and catcher Rob Brantly. All five will receive invitations to major league Spring Training.

Hutchison, 32, returns to the organization that drafted him in 2009. He worked his way up to the majors in 2012 and had some success with the Jays, including a 2014 season where he made 32 starts with a 4.48 ERA. Unfortunately, his performance dipped in subsequent years and he was traded to the Pirates in 2016. He’s gone into journeyman mode since that time, also suiting up for the Phillies, Rangers and Tigers. With Detroit in 2022, made 18 starts and 10 relief appearances, posting an ERA of 4.53 over 105 1/3 innings. His 14.7% strikeout rate was well below par, but his 9.1% walk rate and 40.3% ground ball rate were close to league average. He’ll give the Blue Jays some veteran rotation depth in the minors, should injuries create a need during the season.

Fry, 30, seemed to have a breakout in 2020. He made 22 appearances for the Orioles that year with a 2.45 ERA, 29.6% strikeout rate and 57.6% ground ball rate. His 9.2% walk rate was a tad high, but it was a few ticks better than the 11.4% rate he posted the year before. Unfortunately, his improved control slipped from his grasp over the next two seasons. In 2021, his walk rate shot up to 16.3%, pushing his ERA to 6.08 in the process. His 2022 was similar, with a 14.8% walk rate and 6.23 ERA, a year that included a trade to the Diamondbacks, who outrighted him in August.

Assuming Yusei Kikuchi is in the club’s rotation, then Tim Mayza and Matt Gage are the only lefty relievers on the 40-man. If Fry can improve his command at all, he still has a couple of option years remaining and between three and four years of MLB service time. If he earns his way back on the 40-man, he could be retained for future seasons via arbitration.

Brantly, 33, is a journeyman catcher who has spent time in the big leagues with the Marlins, White Sox, Phillies, Giants and Yankees. Though he’s played in parts of eight MLB seasons, he’s gotten into just 135 big league games and made just 456 plate appearances. He has a .225/.287/.326 batting line for his career for a wRC+ of 68. He’s made it to the bigs in each of the past four seasons but didn’t get into more than six games in any of them. The Jays have Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk to handle the big league catching duties but traded Gabriel Moreno to the Diamondbacks in the Daulton Varsho trade. Varsho himself has plenty of catching experience but seems ticketed for outfield work for the Jays. Brantly gives the club a veteran depth option to have on hand in the minors.

Blue Jays Claim Junior Fernández From Yankees

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The Blue Jays have claimed right-hander Junior Fernández off waivers from the Yankees, according to announcements from both clubs. Fernandez had been designated for assignment last month.

Fernandez, 26 in March, has spent most of his career as a Cardinal thus far, making his major league debut with them in 2019. He struggled to a 6.62 ERA over 34 appearances in the 2019-2021 stretch, striking out just 19.8% of batters faced in that time while walking 13.8% of them. His results in 2022 were a bit better, as he posted a 2.93 ERA with the Cards, but still only punching out 17.1% of batters and giving free passes to 11.4% of them.

2022 was the last option year for Fernandez, meaning he could no longer be easily shuffled between the majors and minors going forward. Coupled with the disappointing results, that seemed to bump him out of the plans in St. Louis, as they designated him for assignment in September. The Pirates claimed him and put him into three games down the stretch before sending him into DFA limbo again.

Despite the tepid results, there are reasons that the Yankees claimed him from the Pirates in November and the Jays have now claimed him from the Yanks. He averaged 98.8 mph on his four-seamer this year and 98.7 mph on his sinker. Per Statcast, that puts his velocity in the 98th percentile among qualified pitchers. He’s been better at getting punchouts in the minors but without improved results overall. Over the past two years, he’s thrown 58 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 5.22 ERA, despite striking out 27.1% of batters faced. His control issues have also been present in the minors, as he walked 10.4% of Triple-A hitters faced in that two-year span.

The Jays seem to be willing to take a shot on the high-octane stuff and will see if they can find a way to harness it. If they succeed in that regard, they can retain Fernández for the foreseeable future, since he’s yet to crack the two-year mark in terms of major league service time.

Blue Jays Re-Sign Casey Lawrence To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays have signed right-hander Casey Lawrence to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He will presumably receive an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Lawrence, 35, was also signed to a minor league deal by the Jays for some pitching depth in 2022. He eventually had his contract selected and threw 18 innings over six appearances but posted a 7.50 ERA in that time. He spent most of the year in Triple-A, where things went much better. Over 23 starts and 126 innings for the Bisons, he had a 2.79 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 3.5% walk rate and 43.5% ground ball rate. He was outrighted off the roster in November but is now back in the organization without taking up a roster spot.

For the Jays, their rotation currently projects to feature Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah, Chris Bassitt and José Berríos in the first four spots, with Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White candidates for the fifth. By adding Lawrence on a minor league pact, they’ve added another depth option to join Nate Pearson, Thomas Hatch, Yosver Zulueta and Bowden Francis.

Lawrence is now out of options and can no longer be easily shuffled between the majors and minors if he makes his way back onto the 40-man. He has just over one year of service time, meaning that he could be retained cheaply for the foreseeable future if earns and continues to hang onto a roster spot.

Analyzing The Blue Jays’ Second Base Possibilities

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The Blue Jays have made a few drastic lineup changes this offseason, sending out Teoscar Hernández and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno while bringing back Daulton Varsho and signing Kevin Kiermaier. Toronto general manager Ross Atkins recently told reporters he considers the club’s heavy lifting mostly finished, though he left the door open for another small-scale move or two.

One area of the roster that has thus far not changed is the infield. That’s not all that surprising, considering the Jays entered the offseason with a strong infield under club control for another year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman will be back at the corners, with Bo Bichette manning shortstop. The one position that doesn’t seem entirely settled is second base, though that’s not for a lack of options. Toronto has a trio of players who could compete for reps at the keystone, with manager John Schneider presumably planning to divvy up playing time depending on how each performs early in 2023.

At the moment, Whit Merrifield looks like the favorite for early run. Toronto acquired him from the Royals at last summer’s trade deadline, buying low at a time when the two-time All-Star was sitting on a meager .240/.290/.352 line. The Jays seemed undeterred by those numbers, betting on Merrifield’s career track record and generally solid work following an atrocious April. He rewarded the front office’s faith, hitting .281/.323/.446 in 44 games in a Jays uniform.

That surely cemented Merrifield’s place somewhere in the regular lineup, with second base being the straightforward option. Merrifield is capable of covering all three outfield positions, but Varsho and Kiermaier are in line for regular playing time alongside George Springer on the grass. With Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen likely to split time between catcher and designated hitter, Merrifield will presumably man second base on Opening Day.

Doing so pushes a pair of players who looked like quality regulars for the Jays not too long ago — Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio — to the bench. Biggio has been in the Opening Day lineup in each of the past three seasons, twice at the keystone, but that seems unlikely to be the case this year. The left-handed hitter is coming off a second straight pedestrian year, hitting .202/.318/.350 with six home runs through 303 plate appearances. Biggio still draws plenty of walks but he’s seen his power production dip the past couple seasons. He struggled enough he was briefly optioned to Triple-A Buffalo last season, though he was recalled within two weeks. He spent most of the year in a utility capacity, playing all four corner spots in addition to second base.

After Biggio was demoted, the primary second base job fell to Espinal. The 28-year-old had worked primarily as a versatile bench piece from 2020-21. He played his way into more consistent reps with a strong first few months in 2022, hitting .271/.323/.425 through the end of June. He even secured an All-Star appearance for that excellent early work, but he couldn’t carry that production for a full season. Espinal hit .261/.321/.317 from July onwards, ceding some more playing time to Biggio and (after the deadline) Merrifield for the stretch run.

With Merrifield in the fold, Espinal and Biggio each entered the offseason as at least somewhat realistic potential trade candidates. Espinal’s ability to cover shortstop if Bichette were injured and/or needed a rest day made him seem more entrenched than Biggio in Toronto, although it seemed reasonable teams could call on either player. There’s been no indication thus far that Toronto has discussed either with other clubs.

Considering the scant remaining middle infield options available via free agency, it’s possible teams like the White Sox, Angels, Giants or Brewers could still be in touch with Atkins and his staff in the coming months. The Jays don’t figure to be urgent to move either player, particularly considering the health uncertainty present with Kiermaier and Springer. An injury to either could press Merrifield more frequently back into outfield duty, leaving Espinal and/or Biggio to handle the keystone on a more regular basis.

Espinal and Biggio each qualified for arbitration for the first time this winter. They’re both projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary in the $2-3MM range. That’s hardly onerous, although there’s a case to be made for considering trade possibilities. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted last week, the Blue Jays presently project to enter the season right around the $233MM base luxury tax line. There are enough error bars in arbitration projections they could conceivably head into the year either above or below that threshold.

A team’s tax payor status isn’t finalized until season’s end, and the organization could well determine they’re comfortable exceeding that mark to maximize their chances in what should be a competitive AL East. Yet if the club is content with its infield strength — especially if they’re confident prospect Addison Barger will be ready for MLB action fairly early in the season — fielding offers on Espinal or Biggio could make sense. They’re not under pressure to do so but would presumably be open to the possibility, particularly if they could net immediate rotation depth or bullpen help.

Blue Jays, Julian Fernandez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Blue Jays are signing reliever Julian Fernández to a minor league contract, reports Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet (Twitter link). He’ll add some hard-throwing bullpen depth to the upper minors.

Fernández has over two years of major league service, but virtually all of that was spent on the injured list. The Giants took the righty out of the Rockies organization in the 2017 Rule 5 draft. He suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery before he could throw a pitch for San Francisco and spent the entire following season on the MLB injured list. The Marlins claimed him off waivers the next offseason but he spent the entire 2019 campaign on the IL as well thanks to continued elbow issues.

Over the 2019-20 offseason, Miami relinquished his Rule 5 rights. That sent him back to his original organization, the Rockies, without requiring a 40-man roster spot. Fernández had racked up two years of MLB service without appearing in a game, but he finally got his first real opportunity late in the 2021 season. Colorado selected him onto their 40-man roster as a September call-up. He allowed eight runs in 6 2/3 innings over six outings, struggling with his control but averaging a blistering 99 MPH on a fastball that maxed out just shy of 101.

Fernández held his roster spot with Colorado last winter but spent the first few months of the season on optional assignment to Triple-A Albuquerque. He struggled and was designated for assignment in mid-June. He cleared outright waivers and stuck with the Isotopes for the entire season, tallying 57 innings across 58 appearances. The Dominican-born hurler allowed a 6.63 ERA in that extremely hitter-friendly league, serving up a staggering 2.37 home runs per nine innings. He struck out 24.9% of opponents on an impressive 13.6% swinging strike percentage, but the longball and a 12.3% walk rate proved too problematic for him to get back to the majors.

After qualifying for minor league free agency at season’s end, Fernández finds a new opportunity in Toronto. His arm strength is surely intriguing for the Jays pitching development staff even as his minor league performance track record has been inconsistent. The 27-year-old still has two minor league option years remaining, so if he cracks Toronto’s 40-man at any point, he can bounce between Rogers Centre and Triple-A Buffalo freely for the next couple seasons.

Which Teams Are Slated To Pay The Luxury Tax In 2023?

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The highest number of teams to pay the competitive balance tax in a single season is six, which occurred in 2016 and 2022. It’s possible that 2023 could be a record-breaking season in that regard, as Roster Resource currently has six teams already over the $233MM base threshold, while the Dodgers are a rounding error away from the line and another handful of teams not too far off.

These numbers are still unofficial, especially considering the arbitration salaries are mostly still estimates. Teams can also change their status by making trades throughout the year, either adding or subtracting from their ledger, but consider this a rough snapshot of where things currently stand.

Top Tier – CBT Above $293MM

The Mets are not just beyond the top CBT tier, they’re on another planet. Owner Steve Cohen has shown that he doesn’t care too much about what it costs to put a competitive team together, with their payroll currently projected for $376MM and a CBT figure of $390MM. They are currently slated to pay over $116MM in taxes alone, which is more than the total 2023 payroll of 11 teams.

CBT Between $273MM and $293MM

The Yankees are alone in this tier, but are just barely under the top threshold. Roster Resource currently has their CBT figure at $291.8MM, giving them very little room for further additions without going over. If they stay above the $273MM line, both the Yankees and Mets will see their top pick in the 2024 draft moved back by 10 spots. Both the Mets and Dodgers were more than $40MM above the base threshold in 2022, meaning their top draft picks will be moved back in the upcoming draft.

CBT Between $253MM and $273MM

The Padres are the only club in this section, with their CBT number currently pegged at $267MM.  Since they paid the tax in 2021 and 2022, they are set to be third-time payors in 2023. That means they are currently slated for a 62% tax on spending over the $253MM line and will continue to do so for any further additions. Jumping over the $273MM line would lead to a huge spike to a 95% rate, as well as their top 2024 draft pick being pushed back 10 slots.

CBT Between $233MM and $253MM

The Phillies, Braves and Blue Jays are currently in this group, with the Phils ahead of the other two at $251MM. The Phillies also paid the tax in 2022, setting them up to be a second-time payor. That means they are currently set to be taxed at a 30% rate, with that rate jumping to 42% for spending that goes over the $253MM line.

Both the Braves and Blue Jays would be paying the tax for the first time in their respective histories, putting them each in line for a 20% tax rate on spending over the line. The Jays are only a hair over right now, with Roster Resource calculating their number at $233.2MM, with Atlanta at $240MM.

Just Under The $233MM Threshold

The Dodgers are currently calculated for a CBT figure of $232.9MM, just barely under the lowest line. It’s been rumored they would like to limbo under the line in order to reset their status, since that would allow them to go into 2024 as a “first-time” payor. Doing so will be a challenge at this point unless they move something off their books.

A few other teams are within range of the Dodgers and could have to start thinking about the tax line if they make another significant signing or trade. The Rangers and Angels are each at $220MM, the Cubs at $214MM, the Red Sox $212MM, Astros at $209MM, Giants at $208MM and White Sox at $205MM.

Hyun-Jin Ryu Targeting July Return From Tommy John Surgery

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Hyun Jin Ryu saw his 2022 season cut short in mid-June, when a second bout of forearm soreness necessitated Tommy John surgery. Now more than six months removed from that procedure, the former All-Star is on track in his recovery.

Speaking with reporters in his home country of South Korea, Ryu said his rehab process remains on schedule (via Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News). The veteran starter indicated he hopes he can return to the Jays in July, roughly 13 months after going under the knife. All-Star festivities are scheduled for July 9-13, but a return early in the season’s unofficial second half seems like a rough target date as things stand.

Of course, that’s contingent on future steps in his rehab. Any kind of setback or delay once Ryu returns to throwing could push back that timetable. If all goes well, however, it’s possible he’ll play a role on the Toronto pitching staff for what the team hopes to be another postseason run.

Ryu made just six starts in 2022, allowing a 5.67 ERA across 27 innings. Forearm inflammation cost him a month between April and May and he suffered the setback that required surgery just four starts after his return from that IL stint. Through his first two seasons north of the border, the former ERA leader had a decent amount of success. He posted a 2.69 ERA across 12 starts during the truncated 2020 campaign, securing a third-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting as a result. His 4.37 ERA in 2021 marked a notable step back, but he stayed healthy enough to soak up 169 innings through 31 starts that year.

Toronto has an excellent top of the rotation, with Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman backed up by offseason signee Chris Bassitt. The Jays are hoping for a bounceback year from José Berríos, who had a disappointing first full season in Toronto but was an above-average pitcher between 2017-21. The fifth spot is up in the air, with neither Yusei Kikuchi nor Mitch White seizing the job. Former top prospect Nate Pearson remains on hand but pitched just 15 1/3 minor league innings in 2022 due to mononucleosis and a lat strain.

Ryu is headed into the final season of the four-year free agent deal he inked during the 2019-20 offseason. He’ll make $20MM before hitting the open market again at the end of the year. Getting back onto the mound and demonstrating his health with a handful of late-season starts would be a nice boost to his stock heading into the 2023-24 offseason.

GMs Ross Atkins, Mike Hazen Share Details On Blue Jays/Diamondbacks Trade

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After months of speculation and interest from multiple teams, the Diamondbacks finally traded one of their left-handed hitting outfielders and the Blue Jays finally moved one of their catchers.  The two clubs joined forces on Friday’s three-player deal that saw outfielder Daulton Varsho head to Toronto in exchange for catcher Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., in a trade that checks several boxes for both organizations.

Given how the D’Backs and Jays’ needs dovetailed so neatly, it isn’t a surprise that Toronto GM Ross Atkins said it was “from the very beginning of the off-season that dialogue began” between the two sides.

“It absolutely was a great fit with their surplus of outfielders, specifically left-handed hitting centre fielders and us having a surplus of catching and their need,” Atkins told reporters, including TSN’s Scott Mitchell. “Right from the start, we felt that was going to be a very important team and fit.”

The Blue Jays entered the winter with Moreno, Alejandro Kirk, and Danny Jansen all lined up as options behind the plate, with Moreno (one of the game’s best prospects) looking ready for an extended audition after making his MLB debut with 25 games played in 2022.  While Varsho has only 283 MLB games on his resume, he was actually the most experienced of Arizona’s outfield core — Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas both made their big league debuts in 2022, and Jake McCarthy has appeared in 123 games for the Diamondbacks over the last two seasons.

Varsho’s longer track record seemingly made him the most sought-after player by interested teams, especially since the D’Backs made Carroll (another elite prospect) all but untouchable in trade negotiations.  With the Diamondbacks intent on adding “impact in this trade,” according to Arizona general manager Mike Hazen, that need couldn’t be met just by shopping Thomas or McCarthy.

“I think there was more certainty — and clearly, we have it, too — with Daulton’s performance to this point in his career, and probably rightly so, that teams were willing to pay more for that.  I don’t know that we were ever going to cross that divide otherwise,” Hazen told the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro and other reporters.

Such teams as the Yankees, Reds, White Sox, Athletics, Astros, Brewers, and Marlins were also linked to the Diamondbacks’ outfielders on the rumor mill, as both contenders and rebuilding teams alike had interest in Arizona’s mix of controllable young players.  Likewise, Toronto got lots of calls about its catchers, but reports suggested that the Blue Jays first wanted to wait and see where some other catchers on the free agent and trade market landed.  Once the Braves acquired Sean Murphy from Oakland and once Willson Contreras (Cardinals) and Christian Vazquez (Twins) signed, the road was then a little more clear for the D’Backs and Jays to align on a trade.

Even then, Atkins said that finding a match was tricky since “all three catchers were of some interest to them and all of their outfielders were of some interest to us.  The component that made it challenging is that we were both trying to consolidate more talent on our Major League roster.  They are looking to take steps forward obviously and push the envelope on the winning front and that’s why Lourdes Gurriel came into the picture and made this deal work.”

Gurriel’s inclusion gives the D’Backs a veteran but not old (Gurriel is entering his age-29) outfield presence to join with Carroll, McCarthy, Thomas, and former AL Rookie Of The Year Kyle Lewis, who was acquired in another trade with the Mariners earlier this winter.  “I’m hoping the contact, the on-base, the ability to hit, the two-strike approach, is going to lend itself to making our lineup even tougher to face with the way some of those kids are going to be running around the bases the way they did last year,” Hazen said.  “I feel like a lot of that dynamic offense has a chance to be enhanced.”

The trade with the Jays and Mariners represent Arizona’s biggest moves of the winter, as the D’Backs have otherwise mostly focused on their bullpen with relatively lower-tier moves like the signings of Miguel Castro and Scott McGough.  Friday also saw the D’Backs complete another trade, bringing Diego Castillo from the Pirates to add more infield depth to the mix.

With Arizona still trying to finds its footing after three straight losing seasons, the Blue Jays are in a different position as a club intending to compete for a World Series in 2023.  After a disappointing collapse against Seattle in the Wild Card Series, the Jays have been aggressive in signing right-hander Chris Bassitt to a three-year, $63MM deal, signing Kevin Kiermaier to a one-year contract, and trading Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners for Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko.

Now that the Jays finally pulled the trigger on a catcher trade, Atkins said “I think our heavy lifting is done” for the rest of the offseason, though the front office is “certainly not ruling anything out and would expect some incremental improvements.”  Varsho and Kiermaier are both left-handed hitters, and thus the Blue Jays will “look to improve our team from the subtraction of Gurriel, but in our view it doesn’t need to be right-handed or left-handed, it’s more about the impact and the fit beyond that.”

Blue Jays Acquire Daulton Varsho From D-Backs For Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

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The Blue Jays announced that they have acquired outfielder Daulton Varsho from the Diamondbacks. Going the other way will be catching prospect Gabriel Moreno and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr..

For the Blue Jays, they’ve long been looking to add a left-handed complement to their right-handed heavy lineup. They’ve also been rumored all offseason to be willing to deal from their catching surplus in order to address other areas of their roster. With Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Moreno all jockeying for playing time, it seemed like they would use one of them to line up a deal with a catching-needy team. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have drawn much trade interest this offseason on their multiple outfielders. Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy and Varsho are all left-handed and have various attributes, but it made for a logjam that many expected to be cleared via trade. Given those factors, the two teams have been frequently made for speculative trade partners, which has come to fruition with this deal.

Varsho, 26, was a top 100 prospect in the minors and debuted for the Diamondbacks in 2020. Though he was primarily a catcher, his natural athleticism has pushed him into more of an outfield role recently. It was reported towards the end of the 2022 campaign that the Diamondbacks were so impressed by his outfield work that they were planning to keep him there going forward. That was a fairly sensible conclusion to draw given his excellent defensive grades on the grass. He was given a +19 from Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield this year, along with an 18.8 from Ultimate Zone Rating and 17 Outs Above Average. All three of those figures were tops among all MLB outfielders this year, with the DRS tally tied with Michael A. Taylor. Varsho has seen time at all three outfield positions in his time in the big leagues thus far, giving the Jays plenty of flexibility in how he fits into their alignments.

The Blue Jays have largely been focused on run prevention this offseason, adding Chris Bassitt to their rotation, Erik Swanson to their bullpen and defensive specialist Kevin Kiermaier to their outfield. Now with Varsho, they’ve continued down that run prevention path by adding the best defensive outfielder of 2022. Varsho isn’t merely limited to being a glove-only contributor, however. He hit 27 home runs this year and stole 16 bases. He finished the season with a .235/.302/.443 batting line, good enough for a wRC+ of 106, indicating he was 6% above league average. Those contributions put together amounted to 4.6 wins above replacement for the year, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

This move, and their other moves this offseason, have resulted in righties Gurriel and Teoscar Hernández being swapped out for lefties Kiermaier and Varsho. Gurriel and Hernandez are more productive at the plate but both are generally regarded as subpar defenders, while Kiermaier and Varsho are generally the inverse, though Varsho took a big step forward at the plate this year. Varsho and Kiermaier should slot into an outfield mix that also includes George Springer and Whit Merrifield. While last year’s alignment saw Springer as the top defensive option, flanked by two bat-first teammates, he now seems like the third best defender in Toronto’s outfield mix.

For the Diamondbacks, they are acquiring one of the top prospects in the sport, regardless of position, but certainly one of the top catching prospects. Moreno, 23 in February, is considered the No. 3 prospect in the game by both Baseball America and FanGraphs. He made his MLB debut in 2022 and carried himself well in over his first 73 plate appearances, hitting .319/.356/.377 for a wRC+ of 113. Spending most of the year in Triple-A, he hit .315/.386/.420 for a wRC+ of 120. Though the power part of his game could be lacking, all reports point to him being an excellent defender who has keen bat-to-ball skills. That’s borne out by his 16.9% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year and 11% rate in his MLB debut.

The club has used Carson Kelly, 28, as its primary catcher over the past four seasons, who has proved inconsistent in that time. His 2019 and 2021 seasons were both above average at the plate, as he hit double-digit home runs and walk rates, leading to a wRC+ of 107 in the former and 103 in the latter. However, his 2020 and 2022 seasons were on the low side, with the walks and the power both dipping. He posted a wRC+ of 70 in 2020 and just 73 in 2022. Defensively, he’s generally considered around average, with DRS have graded him at exactly zero thus far in his career.

Kelly still has two years of arbitration control remaining and likely has the catching job for now, given Moreno’s youth and limited experience. Moreno will also require some time to get to know Arizona’s pitching staff. But as Moreno continues to develop, it’s possible that Kelly will get squeezed out in time and become a trade chip himself before he reaches the open market.

As they subtract from their multitude of left-handed hitting outfielders, the Diamondbacks are bringing in a right-hander for more balance in Gurriel. The 29-year-old has spent the past five seasons with the Jays and has a career batting line of .285/.329/.468 and a wRC+ of 115. He doesn’t come with a noticeable platoon split, as he has an even 115 wRC+ against both righties and lefties. That makes him perfectly capable of playing every day for the Snakes. He is in his final year of control before becoming a free agent, which doesn’t make him a long-term solution in the desert, but he should give the club some time to continue to evaluate young players like Carroll and Thomas. If those younger players take steps forward and command everyday jobs and/or the Diamondbacks aren’t in contention in the middle of 2023, Gurriel would make for an intriguing trade candidate.

Defensively, Gurriel broke in as an infielder but was moved to left field in 2019 and has largely been there since, apart from the occasional turn at first base. Reviews on his glovework are mixed, as he has a +4 in the outfield from DRS, but a -4.7 from UZR and a -16 OAA. That limits his contributions somewhat but his bat has been above average in each of his five seasons thus far.

Financially, the Jays will be saving a bit of money on this deal as Gurriel will be making $5.4MM in 2023, his final year before free agency. Varsho, meanwhile, has four years of control remaining but has qualified for arbitration this winter as a Super Two player. He just squeaked in on that one, as his two years and 128 days of service time are an exact match for this year’s cutoff. He’s projected for a salary of $2.8MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and will get three further arb raises through 2026. Moreno, meanwhile, has yet to reach arbitration with just a couple of months of time in the big leagues thus far, giving the Diamondbacks six further years of control over his services.

The slight financial difference won’t matter much to the Diamondbacks but could have ramifications for the Jays. Roster Resource currently pegs the club’s competitive balance tax figure as just a hair over the lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. Those numbers are unofficial and will surely change with future moves throughout the offseason and during the actual season. The arbitration salaries are also just estimates and will have an impact on the tally once they are cemented. But if the Jays continue to hover right around the luxury tax line, the small savings could determine which side of that line they finish on.

In the end, both clubs addressed their needs by dealing from positions of strength. The Jays acquired an all-around player in Varsho who can help them this year and in the future. In order to do so, they’ve subtracted from their prospect capital and catching surplus, as well as dealing an impending free agent in Gurriel. For the Diamondbacks, they’ve sent out a solid contributor but should still have a great outfield without him, and they’ve also loaded their farm for future success. They now have four of the top 20 prospects in baseball, with Moreno at #3 at Baseball America, followed by Carroll at #5, shortstop Jordan Lawlar at #11 and outfielder Druw Jones at #19.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported that the Jays were close to landing Varsho. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported a deal was in place that involved Varsho and Moreno. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first had the involvement of Gurriel.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Claim Anthony Kay, Designate Alfonso Rivas

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The Cubs announced they’ve claimed left-hander Anthony Kay off waivers from the Blue Jays. To clear a 40-man roster spot, first baseman Alfonso Rivas was designated for assignment.

Kay lost his spot on the Toronto roster last week once the team officially signed Chris Bassitt. The 27-year-old had spent three-plus years in the organization. A former first-round draftee of the Mets, Kay was acquired alongside Simeon Woods Richardson in the 2019 trade that landed now-teammate Marcus Stroman in Queens. He’d been in Triple-A at the time and debuted at the big league level with Toronto later in the season.

The UCONN product has appeared in the bigs in four straight years, though he’s yet to top 33 2/3 innings in a season. He made only one MLB appearance in 2022, bringing him to 28 for his career. Working mostly as a multi-inning reliever, Kay has a 5.48 ERA through 70 2/3 innings. He’s fanned a solid 23.5% of opponents but walked batters at an 11.6% clip.

Kay has pitched parts of three years at Triple-A. He’s struggled to a 6.02 ERA over that stretch, thanks in large part to an 11.5% walk rate. The 2022 campaign was a particular challenge. Limited to 14 Triple-A innings by injury, he allowed 14 runs in as many innings with 15 strikeouts and 11 free passes.

While he hasn’t found much high level success to date, Kay represents an intriguing bullpen flier for the Chicago staff. He averaged 94.5 MPH with above-average spin on his fastball during his MLB outing this past season. He’s shown the ability to miss a decent number of bats and has a notable prospect pedigree, and the Cubs will work to try to iron out his control woes. He has one minor league option year remaining, so the Cubs can bounce him between Chicago and Triple-A Iowa next season if he holds his 40-man spot.

Rivas was a fourth-round pick of the Athletics in 2018. He was dealt to Chicago for Tony Kemp a year and a half later. Rivas didn’t play in 2020 because of the minor league cancelation and has spent the past two seasons in the upper levels. He’s moved between Chicago and Iowa as a depth option. He has hit well in Triple-A, posting a .300/.398/.433 line across 377 plate appearances. Rivas flashed that offensive potential at the MLB level in 2021 but stumbled to a .235/.322/.307 mark over 287 trips to the dish this year.

The left-handed hitter has shown a patient plate approach, working plenty of walks but also striking out quite a bit. That’s largely a product of the deep counts with which he’s comfortable. Rivas doesn’t have prototypical power for a player who’s limited to first base or the corner outfield, hitting four homers and six doubles in 119 big league games.

Chicago will have a week to deal Rivas or try to run him through waivers. If another team were to put in a claim or swing a small trade, they could option him to the minors for another two seasons.

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