Blue Jays Exercise Two-Year Club Option On Chad Green
The Blue Jays announced this morning that the club has exercised its two-year club option on the services of veteran right-hander Chad Green. Green will now earn $21MM total across the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Green signed an unusual contract with Toronto this past offseason that afforded the club a three-year, $27MM team option, which if declined would offer Green a one-year, $6.5MM player option. If both of those options were declined, the Blue Jays would then have a final two-year, $21MM option. Evidently, the first club option and Green’s player option were both declined before Toronto picked up the two-year option.
Green, 32, missed most of the 2022 and ’23 campaigns while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. A look at Green’s basic run prevention stats would indicate that the right-hander struggled in his return to action in 2023, given his 5.25 ERA that was 17% worse than league average. That doesn’t tell the whole story, however, as Green pitched just twelve innings with Toronto this year and had excellent peripheral stats. He struck out a whopping 30.8% of batters faced while walking just 7.7% with one home run allowed, giving him a much more palatable 2.67 FIP.
That sort of performance is much more in line with Green’s career numbers. After an uneven rookie season where he was used primarily as a starter in 2016, Green became one of the most reliable set-up men in the game from 2017-2022, as he posted a 2.96 ERA (147 ERA+) with a 3.01 FIP and a 33.4% strikeout rate. Impressive as those numbers are, they’re actually somewhat bogged down by a brief return to starting in 2019. Over the course of his entire career, Green sports a sterling 2.88 ERA across 338 innings out of the bullpen. That’s the sixth-best figure among all relievers with at least 300 innings of work since Green’s debut in 2016, surpassed only by Josh Hader, Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, Blake Treinen, and Aroldis Chapman.
Of course, it’s an open question whether or not Green can reach those heights again in his age-33 and -34 campaigns. After all, Green heads into his mid-thirties coming off a lengthy rehab from surgery. While his velocity did not appear to be impacted during his brief run in the majors this year, it’s hard to say what sort of impact the surgery could have on him over a full season. Between his age, the fact that he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2021, and the volatility of relievers in general, there’s a fair bit of risk in offering Green a two-year, $21MM guarantee even as the righty clearly has the potential to be among the better relievers in baseball.
Given that combination of risk and potentially significant reward, the two-year $21MM pact seems like a reasonable price point for both sides of the arrangement. The interesting structure of the contract left MLBTR readers divided in a recent poll, with each of those four possible outcomes (Green hitting free agency and each of the three potential options being picked up) receiving between 20% and 30% of the total vote. That being said, with the Toronto bullpen scheduled to lose Jordan Hicks and Jay Jackson to free agency this offseason, retaining Green gives the club a quality set-up man to pair with Erik Swanson in front of closer Jordan Romano in 2024.
Managerial/Coaching Notes: Showalter, Kotsay, Ramos, Hudgens
Buck Showalter is one of “several finalists” to be the Angels‘ next manager, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports (via X). Reports have linked Showalter to Anaheim’s vacancy for almost a month, just a few days after the Mets announced that the veteran skipper wouldn’t be back in their dugout next season. Morosi’s update would seemingly imply that the Angels have moved into at least a secondary stage of their search, though public details have been rather scarce to date about who exactly is on the list of candidates.
Beyond Showalter, such names as infield coodinator Benji Gil, former Brewers/Red Sox manager Ron Roenicke, and former Angels players like Torii Hunter, Darin Erstad, and Tim Salmon have all been mentioned as possible candidates for the manager’s job, though it isn’t clear how many proper interviews has taken place. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote today that the Halos “plan to interview” Hunter, Erstad, and Salmon, which would seem to run counter to the idea that the club has already moved onto its group of finalists. Regardless, Showalter seems to be firmly in the mix, and his track record would seemingly give him some advantage in the race, as Roenicke is the only other candidate with past experience as a big league manager.
Some more on other managerial and coaching situations from around the game…
- The Mets‘ search might be down to just Craig Counsell and Carlos Mendoza, as reported earlier today by SNY’s Andy Martino. Earlier this week, Martino reported that Athletics manager Mark Kotsay was also under consideration from New York, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (X link) today wrote that “Kotsay no longer is part of” the Mets’ search. The A’s did grant Kotsay permission to speak with the Mets, though it doesn’t appear that Kotsay will be departing the Oakland dugout. The former 17-year MLB veteran has been Oakland’s manager for the last two seasons, with a miserable 110-214 record that is hardly Kotsay’s fault, given that he was tasked with overseeing a team in a massive rebuild.
- The Phillies announced that Cesar Ramos will be the team’s new bullpen coach for the 2024 season. Ramos has working in the Phillies organization for the last four seasons, and was the pitching coach for Philadelphia’s Triple-A affiliate in 2022-23. Ramos is best known for his eight-year pitching career with the Padres, Rays, Angels, and Rangers from 2009-16.
- The Blue Jays have reassigned hitting strategist Dave Hudgens to another role in the organization, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi reports. Hudgens was one of three batting-related coaches on the Jays’ staff (along with hitting coach Guillermo Martinez and assistant hitting coach Hunter Mense) this season, and some changes to this department were expected after most of Toronto’s lineup struggled in 2023. Hudgens has been on the Blue Jays’ coaching staff since the 2018-19 offseason, previously working as the club’s bench coach.
- Padres assistant farm director Mike Daly will manage the team’s Triple-A affiliate next season, according to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin. It is something of an unusual hire, as Daly has no professional experience as a manager, coach, or player at any levels. Daly’s long career of front office work began with six years in Cleveland’s front office as a baseball operations staff and scout from 2001-06, then 15 seasons with the Rangers that saw him rise to assistant GM status. Daly also worked with A.J. Preller during that stint in the Texas front office, and in 2021 Daly became one of many of Preller’s past Rangers associates to join San Diego’s organization.
Report: MLB Grants Yariel Rodriguez Free Agency
Right-handed pitcher Yariel Rodriguez has officially been declared a free agent by Major League Baseball, reports Francys Romero (X link). He is now free to sign with an MLB team.
Rodriguez became one of the more intriguing options on the pitching market when he was granted a release from his contract with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons a month ago. He has been conducting showcases for MLB clubs in the few weeks since but was barred from officially signing with a major league team until today. There’s nothing to suggest he’ll sign imminently, of course, but this removes the procedural hurdle he still needed to clear.
A native of Cuba, Rodriguez turns 27 in March. That’s atypically young for a free agent pitcher. He worked out of the bullpen over parts of three seasons with the Dragons. Rodriguez had a dominating showing in 2022, when he pitched to a 1.15 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate over 54 2/3 innings. He worked as a starter for his home country during the World Baseball Classic. Once that event concluded, Rodriguez decided not to report back to the Dragons. He sat out the remainder of the 2023 season — the team placed him on the restricted list — before his camp secured his release.
MLB teams figure to have differing evaluations on Rodriguez’s viability as a starter. He’s an intriguing arm with promising stuff and success at the second-highest level of professional baseball in the world. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported last month that the Rays were among 15 teams with scouts in attendance for one of Rodriguez’s recent workouts in the Dominican Republic. This afternoon, Romero listed (on X) 10 clubs that had shown interest in the hurler: the Astros, Yankees, Rangers, Pirates, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Phillies, White Sox, Mets and Giants.
Blue Jays, Whit Merrifield Decline Mutual Option
The Blue Jays informed reporters that second baseman Whit Merrifield has become a free agent (relayed by Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic). Both parties declined their end of the $18MM mutual option in his contract. Merrifield will collect a $500K buyout and head to the open market for the first time.
Toronto acquired Merrifield, who turns 35 in January, from the Royals at the 2022 trade deadline. It was a buy-low move for the two-time hits leader, who carried a .240/.290/.352 line at the time. Merrifield turned things around in Canada, hitting .281/.323/.446 down the stretch. He carried that into the first half of this year, posting a .286/.342/.392 slash to secure his third career All-Star nod.
Unlike 2022, Merrifield didn’t perform well in the second half. He limped to a .212/.250/.288 showing from August 1 onward, although his overall season line was still respectable. He concluded the year with a .272/.318/.382 line with 11 home runs through 592 trips to the plate. He stole 26 bases while getting thrown out 10 times.
Merrifield has plus contact skills and is one of the best players in a weak class of free agent middle infielders. He’s arguably the top second baseman available. The White Sox have reportedly identified him as a target, while teams like the Red Sox, Mariners and Pirates could explore the market.
The Jays may remain in that bidding as well. Cavan Biggio, rookie Davis Schneider and Otto López are among the in-house options. They’re certainly not going to offer Merrifield a salary approaching $18MM on an annual basis, but a two-year pact at a lesser value could be attainable. Jean Segura landed a $17MM guarantee over two years last winter when he was coming off a .277/.336/.387 platform showing.
Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players
We’re a few days from the beginning of the offseason, with the World Series concluding no later than Saturday. One of the first orders of business is the qualifying offer, which will have to be issued within five days of the beginning of the offseason.
A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received one before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.
Yesterday, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald looked at which pitchers were potential QO recipients. Today, we’ll take a look at the offensive class.
No-Doubters
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs)
- Matt Chapman (Blue Jays)
- Shohei Ohtani (Angels)
This trio is well on its way to nine-figure deals. Ohtani should set the all-time guarantee record, while Bellinger could surpass $200MM. Chapman had a rough second half offensively, which drops him well behind the top two hitters in the class. There’s virtually no chance he’d accept the QO, though, as his plus glove and slightly above-average offense gives him a shot at five or six years.
Likely Recipient
- Teoscar Hernández (Mariners)
Hernández had a middling season in Seattle, hitting .258/.305/.435 through 676 trips to the plate. While he connected on 26 home runs, he did so with his lowest batting average and on-base percentage since his 2020 breakout with the Blue Jays. Hernández helped carry the Mariner lineup in June and August but was a well below-average player in every other month.
The down year may knock the 31-year-old from an absolute lock to reject the QO to “merely” very likely to do so. He hit .283/.333/.519 in over 1300 plate appearances between 2020-22. Teams can point to this year’s home/road splits as a potential factor in Hernández’s offensive downturn. He hit only .217/.263/.380 at Seattle’s pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park while running a typical .295/.344/.486 line on the road. Perhaps that’s an indicator he’s not a great fit for the Mariners specifically, but it also boosts his chances of declining a QO to land a multi-year deal elsewhere.
Corner outfielders like Avisaíl García and Kyle Schwarber have found four-year guarantees with less consistent career track records than Hernández has compiled. While neither of those players were attached to draft compensation, Hernández could find a four-year pact even with the QO — particularly in a free agent class so light on impact bats.
Possible Candidates
- Mitch Garver (Rangers)
Entertaining a qualifying offer for Garver would have seemed absurd a few months ago. He’d been limited to 54 games in 2022, working mostly as a designated hitter, by a flexor injury that eventually required season-ending surgery. Garver lost another six weeks to a left knee sprain early this year. By the time he returned, Jonah Heim had cemented himself as an All-Star catcher.
That left Garver as a high-quality backup and potential DH. Since returning from the knee injury, he has mashed his way to the middle of a fearsome Texas lineup. Garver hit 17 homers in 81 regular season games after his activation, posting a .271/.369/.495 line. He stepped in behind the plate while Heim was out with a wrist injury, then moved seamlessly back to DH upon the latter’s return. Garver has connected on three more homers in 51 postseason plate appearances, running a .244/.333/.489 mark in October.
This kind of offense isn’t out of nowhere. Garver hit 31 homers in 93 games for the Twins in 2019. He’s a career .252/.342/.483 hitter. When healthy, he’s a very good offensive player. He’s certainly one of the best hitting catchers in the league. The health caveat has been important, though, as he has only once topped 100 games in a season. Garver has spent time on the injured list every year since 2019 and has caught just 354 innings over the last two seasons. He’ll turn 33 in January.
Is Garver capable of holding up as a team’s #1 catcher? That’s debatable. He wouldn’t need to do that for Texas, as he could remain in the DH/#2 catcher role alongside Heim if the Rangers retain him. There’s a good chance he’d accept a QO if offered — he has never made more than $3.9MM in a season — but the Rangers run lofty payrolls and don’t have many other key free agents. Texas showed a (regrettable in hindsight) willingness to gamble on a qualifying offer for Martín Pérez after a strong platform year in 2022. They could do the same with Garver.
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies)
Hoskins lost the entire 2023 season after tearing the ACL in his left knee during Spring Training. He had progressed to taking batting practice and running the bases in recent weeks, leaving open the possibility for a return as a DH had the Phillies made the World Series.
With Philadelphia coming up a game short, the ’23 campaign goes down as a complete lost year. Heading into the spring, Hoskins projected as one of the best hitters in the upcoming free agent class. He’s a consistent 25-30 homer bat who takes plenty of walks. Hoskins is a career .242/.353/.492 hitter. Even in the absence of defensive or baserunning value, he tends to accrue two to three wins above replacement annually.
Since his profile isn’t built on athleticism, Hoskins may well go into 2024 the same player he was expected to be six months ago. He may still be looking for a one-year deal that allows him to retest the market after a stronger platform season, when he’d be entering his age-31 campaign.
A qualifying offer could be mutually beneficial. Hoskins would be able to play out his rebound year with the only organization he has ever known, while Philadelphia would retain a middle-of-the-order presence without long-term downside. The biggest wild card may be Bryce Harper’s positional future. He played DH and first base after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. If the Phils are comfortable with his arm back in right field, retaining Hoskins at first and pushing Kyle Schwarber to DH is reasonable.
- J.D. Martinez (Dodgers)
While Martinez feels like a player who should have received a qualifying offer at some point in his career, he has not. A midseason trade rendered him ineligible before his free agent trip in 2018. The Red Sox opted against the QO when he hit free agency last offseason. He signed a one-year, $10MM pact to reunite with hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc in Los Angeles.
Martinez turned in his best offensive season since 2019. He popped 33 homers in 479 plate appearances, posting a .271/.321/.572 slash. A career-high 31.1% strikeout rate is a little alarming, but it’s not all that important so long as Martinez is hitting for the kind of power he did this past season. He made hard contact (a batted ball at 95+ MPH) on 55.1% of his balls in play. That’s his highest mark of the Statcast era and a 98th percentile figure in MLB.
The Dodgers could certainly entertain the qualifying offer. They have less than $100MM in salary commitments for 2024. Given their prior spending habits, they have as much short-term payroll space as any team. If Martinez replicated his ’23 production, he’d easily be worth a $20.5MM investment for one season.
In most years, this would be a fairly easy call for L.A. Complicating matters this particular winter: Ohtani’s presence. The Dodgers are expected to be a key suitor for the likely AL MVP. Martinez made all of one start in left field during his age-35 season. Ohtani’s free agency will carry beyond the deadline for the Dodgers to decide whether to issue Martinez a QO (and past his allotted five-day window to decide whether to accept if offered). A player who accepts a QO receives automatic no-trade rights until June 15 of the following season.
If Martinez accepts, the Dodgers are either committed to playing him in left field on most days or (less likely) out of the Ohtani mix. They may not want to risk limiting their flexibility within the first week of the offseason.
- Jorge Soler (Marlins)
Soler is very likely to decline a $13MM player option. The right-handed slugger will head back to free agency after a strong season in Miami. Soler hit .250/.341/.512 while blasting 36 home runs across 580 trips to the plate. He walked at a strong 11.4% clip while striking out at a manageable 24.3% rate.
The 2023 version of Soler is a middle-of-the-order power presence. He has demonstrated that ability in spurts throughout his career, including a 48-homer showing in Kansas City five seasons back and a monster second half to help the Braves to a championship in 2021. He’s not a consistent impact bat, though. Between 2020-22, he ran a middling .219/.312/.425 line in over 1000 plate appearances. For a well below-average corner outfielder who is best suited as a designated hitter, league average offense won’t cut it. Soler was only marginally above replacement level over that three-year stretch overall.
A player’s platform year performance is the biggest factor in whether he receives a qualifying offer. Soler’s 2023 campaign would be good enough to warrant it on many teams. Are the Marlins one of them? Miami would be hard-pressed to find consistent power production if they let him walk. At the same time, they’re an organization that typically runs payrolls below $100MM. Soler accepting a QO would be a legitimate possibility. Miami may not want to risk tying up a fifth of its player budget to a DH with an up-and-down track record.
Long Shots
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (D-Backs)
Acquired alongside Gabriel Moreno in the Daulton Varsho trade, Gurriel had a solid season in Arizona. He hit a career-high 24 homers with a .261/.309/.463 slash in 592 plate appearances. He was a first-time All-Star, largely on the strength of an otherworldly performance in May. Gurriel went ice cold midseason but rebounded with a .291/.338/.497 showing from the start of August through the regular season’s conclusion. He hasn’t contributed much offensively in Arizona’s World Series run.
Heading into his age-30 season, the Cuba native has a case for a solid multi-year deal. He’s a good contact hitter with 20+ homer power but middling walk rates. After years of inconsistent defensive production, he has played strong left field defense in the desert. Gurriel is a good player, although a salary in excess of $20MM is probably beyond Arizona’s taste.
- Kevin Kiermaier (Blue Jays)
Shortly before the Gurriel trade, the Jays signed Kiermaier to a one-year, $9MM deal. Their career division rival turned in a strong season in Toronto, pairing league average offense with sublime defense. He hit .265/.322/.419 over 408 trips to the plate. In just under 1000 innings in center field, Kiermaier rated anywhere between 12 and 18 runs above average by measure of Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved.
That certainly earns him a raise relative to his last free agent trip, when Kiermaier was coming off a platform year cut short by hip surgery. Potentially more than doubling his salary by issuing the QO seems like a bridge too far, however. Kiermaier turns 34 in April and has a lengthy injury history. Committing over $20MM for one season would be a bet on him staying healthy all year.
Ineligible
- Josh Bell (Marlins)
- Brandon Belt (Blue Jays)
- Jeimer Candelario (Cubs)
- Michael Conforto (Giants)
- Justin Turner (Red Sox)
Bell and Candelario changed teams midseason, rendering them ineligible for the QO. Belt, Conforto and Turner have all previously received the offer. Of this group, only Candelario and perhaps Turner would likely have gotten a QO even if they were eligible.
Two Starters Who Buoyed The Blue Jays In 2023
The 2023 season was something of a disappointment in Toronto, as the club once again was swept out of the AL Wild Card series after a third place finish in the AL East. As the club spent 2023 treading water, several key players such as star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (whose struggles MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk discussed last month), catcher Alejandro Kirk, and veteran outfielder George Springer all took significant steps back this year. Meanwhile, the pitching side of the roster faced its own challenges. Right-hander Ross Stripling departed via free agency last offseason for San Francisco and while veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt was a capable replacement this year, 2022 AL Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah was not replaced so easily. Manoah, 25, posted a disastrous 2023 season that saw him sport a 5.87 ERA and 6.02 FIP across 19 starts.
With all the shortcomings of the 2023 squad in Toronto, it might seem somewhat surprising that the club managed to post essentially the same season as they did last year. Fortunately, the Blue Jays managed to turn their starting rotation into a considerable strength this year, even as their best arm from last season was pulled from the starting five due to ineffectiveness. While a solid, 11-start return from veteran lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu and a typically excellent campaign from ace righty Kevin Gausman both were major assets, the steps forward taken by right-hander Jose Berrios and left-hander Yusei Kikuchi did the most to return Toronto to contention in 2023, and provide reason for optimism when looking ahead to 2024.
Both pitchers had their first full seasons in Toronto in 2022: Berrios was acquired at the 2021 trade deadline, while the club signed Kikuchi to a three-year deal in free agency ahead of the 2022 campaign. That season was a difficult one for both players, as each posted an ERA north of 5.00 and the worst full-season fWAR totals of their careers. With Kikuchi under contract for another two seasons and Berrios signed on through 2028, both signings were looking nothing short of disastrous for the Blue Jays after their first year.
Fortunately, however, both pitchers were able to turn things around in 2023, allowing Toronto to absorb the loss of Manoah’s elite production much more easily. Berrios saw his 5.23 ERA in 172 innings last year drop to a much more palatable 3.65 figure in 189 1/3 frames. While he was 26% worse than league average last year by measure of ERA+, he managed to post a season that was actually 16% better than league average by that same metric this season. Kikuchi, meanwhile, saw nearly as drastic an improvement as his similar 5.19 ERA (74 ERA+) improved to a far more respectable 3.86 (110 ERA+) figure. What’s more, after making 12 of his 32 appearances out of the bullpen in 2022, Kikuchi made 32 starts in 2023, allowing his innings total to skyrocket from 100 2/3 to 167 2/3.
As good as those seasons were, of course, they weren’t enough to get the Jays over the hump in 2023. Looking ahead to 2024, the question for GM Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office is a simple one: Just how sustainable were the improvements for their mid-rotation arms? Fortunately for the fans in Toronto, the improvement both players found in 2023 is largely backed up by more advanced metrics.
After striking out just 19.8% of batters faced in 2022, Berrios improved that figure to 23.5% this year while maintaining a low 6.6% walk rate. Both of those numbers are slightly better than his career averages of 23.2% and 7.1%, respectively, which helps lend credence to the idea that Berrios’s return to form could be sustainable. Berrios saw improvements in other areas, too, as his BABIP dropped from .328 in 2022 to just .289 in 2023, while his strand rate rose from 70.9% to 76.4%.
BABIP and strand rate are both typically regarded as fluky year-to-year stats, giving them little value when predicting future performance in such small sample sizes. In this case, however, they back up that Berrios’s 2022 campaign during which he led the league in both earned runs and hits allowed may have simply been an outlier: Berrios’s 2023 BABIP is almost identical to his career .290 mark entering the 2022 campaign. What’s more, advanced metrics such as SIERA indicate that not only were Berrios’s 2022 and 2023 seasons similar to each other in terms of underlying performance, but they were similar to his body of work throughout his entire career. Berrios posting a 4.13 SIERA in 2022 and a 4.08 SIERA this season. While the 2023 figure is a few points better, both are in the same ballpark as his 4.04 SIERA in seven seasons since becoming a major league regular.
While Berrios’s 2023 campaign indicates that 2022 was merely an aberration in what has otherwise been a consistent career as a mid-rotation arm, Kikuchi’s season this year seems to indicate a significant step forward. Among 140 pitchers with at least 100 innings of work in the majors during 2022, Kikuchi’s 5.62 FIP ranked in the bottom three, only better than Jonathan Heasley and Josiah Gray. While Kikuchi struck out an impressive 27.3% of batters faced, he walked a whopping 12.8% of batters faced. What’s worse, those free baserunners Kikuchi offered opposing teams often found themselves scoring on home runs thanks to Kikuchi’s fly balls leaving the year for home runs at an astronomical 23.7% rate that was by far the highest in the majors.
Fortunately, Kikuchi’s command and control issues improved considerably this year, even as his strikeout rate ticked down slightly to 25.9%. He nearly halved his walk rate in 2023, cutting his free passes down to a 6.9% rate that was actually in the 73rd percentile among all qualified pitchers, per Statcast. Kikuchi also managed to make improvements regarding the long ball, though they weren’t as drastic as his cut down on walks. After putting up the league’s worst barrel rate of 14.8% in 2022, Kikuchi managed to cut that figure to 9% this season, good for the 29th percentile among all qualified major leaguers.
While that’s still below average, Kikuchi’s more reasonable 15.3% home run rate allowed him to post a career year in 2023; this year was the first time the 32-year-old managed to post an above average season by both ERA- (8% better than league average) and FIP- (4% better than league average). SIERA, meanwhile, was actually even more bullish on Kikuchi than Berrios this year, as the lefty posted a 3.86 figure that put him in the same range as quality arms like Logan Gilbert and Sonny Gray while outperforming the likes of Corbin Burnes and Blake Snell.
With Berrios once again looking like the quality mid-rotation arm he appeared to be throughout his career in Minnesota and Kikuchi having joined him at a similar status in 2023, the Blue Jays look to be extremely well set up headed into 2024 with a front four of Gausman, Berrios, Kikuchi, and Bassitt in the starting rotation. That should allow them to be aggressive in looking to revamp the club’s offense as they attempt to return to the postseason in 2024 and win their first playoff game since 2016.
MLBTR Poll: Chad Green’s Contract Options
Last winter, right-handed reliever Chad Green signed one of the more convoluted free agent contracts in recent memory. The deal looked simple on the surface – an $8.5MM guarantee over two years – but it came with several options that could pay him as much as $32.25MM through 2026. Green earned $2.25MM during the 2023 campaign, while he spent most of the year on the injured list rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays always knew he’d miss the first several months of the season, hence his relatively low salary. This upcoming offseason, however, is when things get complicated.
Toronto has a club option for three more years and $27MM (plus up to $1MM in incentives each season). If the Blue Jays do not exercise their first option, Green will have the chance to accept an option of his own, a one-year player option worth $6.25MM (with as much as $2MM in additional incentives). Then, if Green also declines his option, the Blue Jays have a second, less expensive team option for two years and $21MM (again with up to $1MM in incentives each year). Finally, if both sides decline every option, Green will become an unrestricted free agent.
Given how little Green pitched in 2023, it’s hard to imagine the Blue Jays would pick him up for $9MM a year through his age-35 campaign. Then again, the veteran reliever returned from Tommy John on a perfectly normal timeline and looked healthy in September. In other words, he gave the Blue Jays everything they could have expected in 2023, and the team wouldn’t have signed this deal in the first place if they weren’t going to consider the option.
While Green gave up ten runs (seven earned) in only 12 innings of work this season, his underlying numbers were much more impressive. He struck out 16 of the 52 batters he faced and only issued three unintentional walks. His 3.11 SIERA and 2.84 xERA are also promising signs. What’s more, Green was a dominant and durable reliever for several years before he tore his UCL. From 2016-22, he posted a 2.79 ERA and 2.93 FIP in 326 innings of relief. Since his debut season, he ranks 11th among all relievers in FanGraphs WAR. If he returns to form in 2024, a three-year, $27MM deal would seem more than fair. A few comparable relievers signed for more than $30MM last winter, including Kenley Jansen (two years, $32MM) and Taylor Rogers (three years, $33MM).
For those precise reasons, Green is unlikely to accept his $6.25MM player option. If he does hit free agency, all his suitors will have the knowledge that Toronto turned down his services at both three years/$27MM and two years/$21MM. That being said, the market for right-handed relievers isn’t particularly deep, nor is it replete with high-end talent. He’s younger than other guys with a long track record, like Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson, and he’s more experienced out of the bullpen than other high-upside arms, like Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López. Even if he struggles to find a multi-year offer, Green should be able to beat $6.25MM on a one-year pact. However, if he is worried about his health, it’s possible he could opt for another year of job security with the Blue Jays. Yet, considering his performance in September and October, that doesn’t seem to be a likely concern.
Toronto’s two-year, $21MM club option looks the most likely to be exercised, but at the same time, if the club has enough concerns to turn down the three-year option, perhaps they’re ready to move on from Green entirely. On top of that, while the two-year option is less expensive overall, it comes with a higher annual salary. The Blue Jays ran a payroll relatively close to the first luxury tax threshold in 2023, and they already have several payroll commitments for next season. If they’re looking to make some upgrades this winter without paying the tax, they might actually prefer the longer option with a lower AAV.
So, what do the MLBTR readers think? Will either side pick up an option, or will Green return to the open market? Have your say in the poll below!
(poll link for app users)
Which Of Chad Green's Contract Options Will Be Exercised?
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None (Green becomes a free agent) 29% (994)
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Two-year, $21MM team option 26% (893)
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One-year, $6.25MM player option 25% (860)
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Three-year, $27MM team option 20% (684)
Total votes: 3,431
AL East Notes: Ryu, Wells, Yankees
Hyun Jin Ryu isn’t ready to say goodbye to Major League Baseball. Speaking with Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, the 36-year-old pitcher didn’t offer much insight about his impending free agency, saying, “I don’t know what to tell you at this point. I think we’ll have to wait and see. Only time will tell.” However, while his comments weren’t very revealing, they make it sound like he isn’t planning to retire, at least without testing the waters of free agency first.
To that end, Ryu reconfirmed that when he is ready to leave MLB, he will return to the KBO to finish his career with the Hanwha Eagles. He played for the Eagles from ages 19 to 25. “I haven’t changed my mind on that,” he said. “I will absolutely make that happen.” Once again, his response implies that retirement isn’t on his mind quite yet.
Ryu signed a four-year, $80MM contract with the Blue Jays ahead of the 2020 season. The southpaw excelled during the first year of the deal, pitching to a 2.69 ERA and finishing third in voting for the AL Cy Young. He was solid but hardly ace-like the following season, posting a 4.37 ERA in 31 starts. Unfortunately, his next two campaigns were marred by injury. Ryu needed Tommy John surgery last summer, and he made just 17 starts from 2022-23. He was serviceable upon his return, rejoining the Blue Jays rotation for August and September, but his underlying numbers were worrisome (17% strikeout rate, 4.70 SIERA), and he failed to make the roster for the AL Wild Card Series.
Ryu will be 37 next season, but given his long track record of success and his dominant run from 2018-20, he should draw some interest this winter. If he doesn’t receive any offers to his liking, perhaps he’ll consider heading back to the KBO, but at least for now, it seems like he’s planning to pitch another MLB season in 2024.
In other news from the AL East…
- Tyler Wells lost his job in the Orioles’ rotation this summer. He was optioned just ahead of the trade deadline, and he transitioned to a relief role at Triple-A. About eight weeks later, the towering right-hander earned a call-up back to the big leagues, where he made four scoreless appearances out of the Orioles’ bullpen. He made three more scoreless appearances in the playoffs, taking the mound in all three of Baltimore’s ALDS games. Yet in spite of his success out of the ‘pen, the Orioles are expecting Wells to rejoin the starting rotation in 2024, according to Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com. In 20 starts last year, the 29-year-old pitched to a 3.98 ERA and a 4.28 SIERA. However, he looked much stronger over the first three months of the season before he ran out of gas in July. With another year of big league experience under his belt, the Orioles will hope he can stick around for a full season in the rotation.
- In the latest edition of his Yankees Beat newsletter, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com touched on the team’s surplus of options in the middle infield. He suggests the Yankees could look to trade Gleyber Torres, but the possibility of dealing Oswald Peraza is not up for discussion. Torres is a talented second baseman, but he’s a known quantity at this point, whereas Peraza has untapped potential at the plate and in the field. What’s more, the Yankees only have one year of team control remaining over Torres, while Peraza won’t even be eligible for arbitration for at least three more seasons.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Toronto Blue Jays
With the Blue Jays edition of the Offseason Outlook series now posted, click here to read the transcript of the associated Jays-centric live chat.
Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays
In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk will hold a Blue Jays-centric chat on 10-14-23 at 7:00PM CDT. Click here to leave a question in advance.
The Blue Jays scored only one run in their two Wild Card Series games with the Twins, capping off a season of offensive disappointment. With several position-player free agents perhaps on the way out of town, the Jays will try to retool and reinvigorate a shaky lineup.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Berrios, SP: $101MM through 2028 (Berrios has opt-out clause after 2026 season)
- Kevin Gausman, SP: $70MM through 2026
- George Springer, OF: $67.5MM through 2026
- Chris Bassitt, SP: $42MM through 2025
- Bo Bichette, SS: $27.5MM through 2025
- Yusei Kikuchi, SP, $10MM through 2024
- Yimi Garcia, RP: $5MM through 2024
2024 financial commitments: $110.5MM
Total future commitments: $323MM
Option Decisions
- Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $18MM mutual option ($500K buyout)
- Chad Green, RP: $27MM club option covering 2024-26 seasons (if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option for 2024; if both options are declined, Blue Jays can then exercise a $21MM club option covering the 2024-25 seasons)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Adam Cimber (5.156): $3.2MM
- Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.4MM
- Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2MM
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): $20.4MM
- Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.3MM
- Cavan Biggio (4.129): $3.7MM
- Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.7MM
- Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.7MM
- Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.4MM
- Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.5MM
- Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.5MM
- Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.6MM
- Nate Pearson (3.005): $800K
- Non-tender candidates: Cimber, Espinal
Free Agents
The Blue Jays finished 29th of 30 teams in stolen-base percentage, 27th in Fangraphs’ BsR metric (baserunning runs above average), tied for 26th in sacrifice flies, and tied for 28th in sac hits overall. Toronto also made the fifth-most outs on the bases of any club, while hitting into the fourth-most double plays. Combined with middle-of-the-pack numbers in homers and production with runners in scoring position, and it wasn’t any surprise that the Jays had issues consistently generating offense, despite respectable or even impressive numbers in other offensive categories.
It was a startling step backwards for a team that, if anything, looked to be relying on its offense to carry a seemingly shaky rotation heading into 2023. The offseason trades of Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. don’t tell the whole story of the lineup’s decline, since while Gurriel replacement Daulton Varsho struggled badly at the plate, the Jays’ larger problem was that almost all of their returning hitters took steps backwards.
Of every Blue Jays hitter who had at least 120 plate appearances for the team in both 2022 and 2023, only Cavan Biggio (from 97 to 103) improved his wRC+ over the two seasons. Several other regulars took drastic drops — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from 133 to 118, George Springer from 133 to 104, Danny Jansen from 141 to 116, Alejandro Kirk from 129 to 96, and Whit Merrifield from 120 to 93.
The result was a season full of close, often low-scoring games that kept the Jays grinding from day one amidst the very competitive AL East race. As it turned out, the rotation (as well as a very good bullpen and excellent defense) helped carry Toronto to another wild card berth, except just like in 2022, the Jays suffered a demoralizing two-game sweep. The Twins only needed to score five runs over the two WCS games to top the scuffling Jays lineup, with base-running mistakes from Guerrero and Bo Bichette short-circuiting two of Toronto’s few possible rallies.
Some of the club’s better offensive performers are now hitting free agency, adding another layer of difficulty to the Blue Jays’ attempts to solve their hitting problems. One would imagine the Jays would have interest in re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and Brandon Belt in particular, assuming Belt plays at all next season and foregoes retirement. However, since both players stayed relatively healthy, they might be looking to move on to more lucrative deals or preferred locations elsewhere. Kiermaier, for one, has publicly expressed his preference for playing on grass fields, so he might opt to finally seek out a natural surface after 11 seasons on the artificial grass in Tampa Bay and Toronto.
Matt Chapman is in the strange position of being both one of the winter’s top free agents, yet also a player with something to prove in 2024. Chapman displayed his typically excellent third-base glovework, yet hit a modest .240/.330/.424 with 17 homers in 581 plate appearances — his 110 wRC+ was down from his 118 total in 2022. Moreover, almost all of Chapman’s best offensive moments came in April, when he won AL Player of the Month honors. From May 1 onward, Chapman had a subpar 84 wRC+ in 467 PA, and was further bothered by a finger injury over the season’s last two months.
With all this in mind, the Blue Jays might prefer to just receive draft pick compensation for Chapman, and let him walk in free agency rather than sign him to what will still very likely be a nine-figure free agent deal. The decision on Whit Merrifield is easier since the Jays won’t be exercising their end of his $18MM mutual option, but if both Merrifield and Chapman leave, that’s suddenly two starting infield positions to be filled.
Since Varsho can take over center field for Kiermaier, that would leave third base, second base, left field, and DH as the open positions if all four of Belt, Kiermaier, Chapman, and Merrifield departed. For DH, the Jays might try to replace Belt with another left-handed hitter who could semi-platoon with Kirk, and possibly seek out a lefty-swinger who could play more positions than just first base. In that scenario, the Blue Jays might not have a true regular DH at all, but instead use the spot to give multiple players half-days off. Rookie Spencer Horwitz might also factor into the picture as an in-house left-handed bat who can play first base.
(Since we’re talking designated hitters, cue the obligatory Shohei Ohtani mention. As aggressive as Toronto has been in pursuing free agents during GM Ross Atkins’ tenure, it would count as a big surprise to see the Jays win the bidding for the record-setting contract it will take to land Ohtani.)
Returning to internal options, the Blue Jays figure to go that route for one of second base or third base. Davis Schneider‘s bat came back to reality in September, but the rookie’s hot start to his career has likely earned the mustachioed fan favorite a shot at at least a platoon job heading into Spring Training. Biggio probably did enough to preserve his roster spot, but Santiago Espinal hit poorly and looks like a non-tender candidate.
Prospects Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, and Leo Jimenez all look set to make their MLB debuts in 2024, with Martinez and Barger in particular candidates for something closer to everyday roles. Barger might ultimately be Toronto’s third baseman of the future, and while Martinez is a bit more of a question mark in regards to his eventual infield landing spot, his hitting potential is very intriguing. By contrast, Jimenez is a work in progress hitting-wise, yet his glove will make him at least a backup middle infielder on a big league roster.
The Blue Jays would probably prefer to devote just one position for some combination of their in-house players, leaving the other infield spot open for a big league regular. Infield-heavy teams like the Guardians, Cardinals, or even the division-rival Orioles could be fits as trade partners, and making a deal might be a preferred option for the Jays in finding a true upgrade since there isn’t a lot of depth in either the second or third base free agent markets.
That being said, Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro has stated that the team plans to at least match its $215MM payroll (and estimated $248MM luxury tax number, putting the Jays over the first tax line). With a good chunk of money coming off the books, this gives Toronto roughly $40-$45MM in spending capacity, and room to make another splashy move.
Looking at the infield market, then, bringing Jeimer Candelario or Justin Turner into the fold couldn’t be ruled out. Candelario would be a longer-term signing, settling in at third base at least for a couple more seasons and then possibly moving into a first base/DH capacity if his defense declines or if Barger emerges as a legitimate third base option. Turner could be an even better fit since he’d only require a shorter-term contract as he enters his age-39 season, but Turner could slide between both corner infield slots and DH as circumstances dictate. It is also worth noting that the Blue Jays targeted Turner the last time that he was both a free agent and when the Jays last had a third-base vacancy.
Left field seems like the obvious position for a new bat to be added, again probably a left-handed hitter given the righty tilt of Toronto’s lineup. Joc Pederson or former Jays targets Michael Brantley or Michael Conforto could be fits, and the resurgent Jason Heyward could be an option since the Jays will still be looking to keep their defense strong. The switch-hitting Aaron Hicks figures to get attention from Toronto and several other teams, since he’ll only cost a minimum MLB salary because the Yankees are paying the remainder of his 2024-25 salaries.
If specifically left-handed hitting outfielders aren’t a must, then a reunion with Hernandez or Gurriel can’t be ruled out. Hernandez’s numbers dropped off in his first season in Seattle, which figures to lower his free-agent price tag to some extent even if the Mariners will probably still issue him a qualifying offer. If Hernandez didn’t get a QO but was still open to a one-year pillow contract as a way of elevating his profile for next winter’s free agent market, a return to Toronto might be feasible, as the Blue Jays had interest in Hernandez back at the trade deadline.
Turning to the pitching front, the Jays will likely still add an arm or two to the bullpen, though most of their relievers are still controlled in 2024. The hard-throwing Jordan Hicks will draw plenty of interest around the league, and if he doesn’t re-sign, Toronto will look for someone else to bring some velocity to the back of the pen.
Some level of extra rotation help will be needed, since the odds of that top four starters all remaining as effective and healthy as they were in 2023 is quite slim. But, for the first time in several seasons, the Blue Jays have the luxury of a mostly settled rotation. Kevin Gausman was a Cy Young Award candidate, and Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, and Yusei Kikuchi were all very good to solid over the course of the year. For Berrios and Kikuchi in particular, they delivered tremendous bounce-back performances after struggling badly in 2022.
Hyun Jin Ryu pitched pretty well after returning from Tommy John surgery and could be a candidate to re-sign, but Ryu might be looking for a bigger contract than the Jays are willing to give considering how much money Toronto has already invested in its starters. The Blue Jays could look for couple of veteran innings-eater types to compete for the fifth starter job and to provide depth, with an eye towards promoting star prospect Ricky Tiedemann in the second half if Tiedemann pitches well at Triple-A.
Alek Manoah is still ostensibly the fifth starter heading into 2024, yet the right-hander is now an X-factor after his unusual 2023 campaign. Manoah had a 5.87 ERA over 87 1/3 innings, during a season that included a month-long stint at extended Spring Training to work on his mechanics, and no pitching appearances at all after August 10 due to unclear reasons, ranging from possible injury to some discord with the organization.
It’s anyone’s guess as to how Manoah will pitch next season, or perhaps even if he’ll pitch at all. If there are some behind-the-scenes issues souring things, the Jays might prefer to part ways with Manoah altogether via trade. Naturally his trade value is low at the moment, but since Manoah was a Cy Young candidate just in 2022, several teams will have interest in exploring if a change of scenery can revive his career.
Manoah’s situation is uniquely abnormal, yet it relates to the larger uncertainty over the players the Blue Jays were counting on as cornerstones. Atkins has done a pretty solid job of adding productive free agents and trade pieces to this core group, but the Jays now face the increasingly worrisome possibility that this core isn’t as solid as once thought. To this end, in the same way that Hernandez and Gurriel were traded to change the Jays’ offensive shape last winter, would they consider again trading from their core to remake the lineup?
It can be safely assumed that Bichette and (for contract size alone) Springer aren’t going anywhere. Varsho and Kirk would each have some trade value but as sell-low type of players given their underwhelming batting numbers. Plus, moving Varsho or Kirk would then open up another position that the Blue Jays would have to address — Varsho was basically always intended as Kiermaier’s eventual replacement in center field, while Kirk is insurance at catcher since Danny Jansen has had trouble staying off the injured list.
As wild as this concept would’ve sounded two seasons ago, could Guerrero then be a trade chip? It would still be selling low in some regard, since Guerrero was only decent at the plate in 2023 and took a big step back defensively at first base. But, Guerrero’s youth, superstar profile, and his MVP-level numbers in 2021 still give him plenty of trade value, and there are surely lots of teams who will look at his Statcast metrics and think a turn-around is inevitable. Trading Guerrero could be seen as incredibly bold or as incredibly risky, and it might not be something the front office quite wants to consider just yet.
For one, the Blue Jays might want to see how Guerrero and the other regulars might respond to a new hitting strategy, since rumors have swirled all season about the fate of hitting coach Guillermo Martinez. It has yet to be revealed how much (if any) overhaul is coming to the coaching staff, though that could be a logical way of making an internal shakeup since GM Ross Atkins has already announced that manager John Schneider will be returning in 2024.
Likewise, Shapiro announced that Atkins is returning, even if the president/CEO stated “there needs to be a higher level of transparency and communication with our players in our preparation and game-planning process.” How the Blue Jays will make these changes remains to be seen, but simply getting their hitters back to their 2022 form (even as inconsistent as that season was) would make a world of difference to the Jays going forward.
Winning solves everything, as the cliche goes, but winning 89 games and making the postseason again wasn’t enough to clear the atmosphere that seemed to grind the Blue Jays down as the season wore on. With Toronto’s fanbase becoming increasingly impatient for results, Atkins faces a pivotal offseason in determining how to fix the problems both on and off the field.