6:37pm: Kiermaier confirmed the report, telling Shi Davidi and Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet after the game that manager John Schneider informed him of the waiver placement (X link). “It’s the chance for a contending team to claim me if they want, from what I was just told. I totally get it with where we’re at as a team,” the Gold Glove center fielder said.
4:20pm: The Blue Jays have placed outfielder Kevin Kiermaier on waivers, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The goal is seemingly to have another team claim him and take on the remainder of his salary. Kiermaier is still on the 40-man roster and can continue playing for the Jays while on waivers. In fact, he was playing in today’s game against the Giants as this report came out. If he clears waivers, the Jays can outright him or release him but keeping him on the roster would also be an option.
Last year, a new trend started to emerge of players being placed on waivers without being removed from the roster of their home club. This used to be a common practice back when there were two deadlines. Under the previous system, there was one deadline usually around the end of July and another around the end of August. In between those two deadlines, a player could still be traded but had to clear waivers first. This led to teams around the league putting huge numbers of players on waivers, most of whom had contracts that outpaced their on-field contributions, which usually led to them going unclaimed and then potentially being traded.
In 2019, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a single deadline, getting rid of the August waiver trade system. This meant that players being placed on waivers while holding onto a roster spot essentially went away for a few years.
The practice came roaring back last year, thanks to the Angels. That club made an aggressive push at last year’s deadline, trying to win while they still had Shohei Ohtani for a few months. But they hit a big losing streak in August and fell way back in the standings, then pivoted to cost-saving mode. At the end of August, they put Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone on waivers, hoping for another club to claim those guys and take on their salaries. Since the trade deadline had passed, this was their only avenue to cutting salary and lowering their competitive balance tax number.
This wasn’t the end of the waiver madness. The Yankees also put Harrison Bader out there, while Mike Clevinger of the White Sox, Carlos Carrasco of the Mets and José Cisnero of the Tigers were also out there. In each case, the club had fallen out of contention and was simply looking for cost savings by another team taking the player off their hands. It’s also possible that other players were on waivers and it wasn’t publicly known because they didn’t get claimed.
In the end, some players were claimed and other weren’t, though the Angels successfully managed to dip under the line and avoid the competitive balance tax. That was a significant development as it improved the compensation draft pick they received after Ohtani rejected a qualifying offer and signed with the Dodgers.
All of that is to say that is the probably the first of several reports that could emerge in the coming months about a player being placed on waivers while still on the team. Sherman uses the word “revocable” in his report, though that’s not entirely accurate. Revocable trade waivers no longer exist, but what Sherman likely means is that Kiermaier isn’t necessarily gone from the Blue Jays. Because they haven’t removed him from the 40-man roster by designating him for assignment, he can simply be retained if no one claims him. As an example, Grichuk went unclaimed last year, stayed with the Angels and was put back on waivers again in September. He cleared that time as well and was still playing for the club at the end of the season. But if someone does claim Kiermaier, he’ll be gone, as was the case with Giolito, Moore and several others who were claimed last year.
It seems fairly unlikely that Kiermaier will end up claimed. He’s playing this season on a one-year deal with a $10.5MM salary, with about $4.5MM of that still to be paid out. He still has wheels and is a strong defender but is hitting just .183/.232/.290. A contending team might be interested in him as a fourth outfielder who can pinch run and serve as a defensive replacement, but there’s little incentive for them to take on that salary right now. There’s still over two weeks until the July 30 trade deadline and interested clubs will have until then to work out a deal wherein the Jays eat some of the money, unless some club is willing to simply absbord the whole thing right now.
Whether Kiermaier is ultimately claimed or not, it does send a signal to where the Jays are at right now, as Sherman points out. The Jays are 42-50 as of this writing and 8.5 games back of a playoff spot. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently give them just a 2% chance if making it into the postseason. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are more bullish but only slightly, giving the Jays a 6.2% shot.
Barring an incredible winning streak in the next two weeks, the Jays will likely enter the deadline period at sellers and recent reporting has pointed to them making rental players available. One of those is Kiermaier, but the list also includes Danny Jansen, Justin Turner, Yimi García, Trevor Richards and Yusei Kikuchi. Whether they look for cost savings or prospect capital in those trades remains to be seen, but Kiermaier’s struggles this year won’t allow him to bring back any huge prospect package regardless, so the Jays have opted to see if they can simply get maximum cost savings with this move.
The Jays currently have a CBT number of $247MM, per both RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with only a tiny difference between the calculations of those two sites. The base threshold of the CBT is $237MM this year, so the Jays could avoid paying the tax by shedding more than $10MM from their CBT calculation, so a claim of Kiermaier could get them about halfway there.
If they did manage to duck under the line, the cost savings would be minimal. The Jays are a on pace to be a second-time payor and are therefore subject to a base tax rate of just 30% on spending over the line, meaning they’d currently be lined up for a tax bill of roughly $3MM. But the CBT features growing tax rates for repeat payors, so even teams that pay it regularly like to “reset” their status by ducking under from time to time. If the Jays did that this year, they would be able to theoretically pay the CBT in 2025 as a “first-time” payor as opposed to a “third-time” payor. Paying the CBT also leads to a larger penalty for signing a player that rejected a qualifying offer and reduces the compensation a team receives for a QO player signing elsewhere.
