Headlines

Transactions News & Rumors

Pirates Sign Caleb Ferguson

By | at January 10, 2025 9:05am CDT

The Pirates added to their pitching staff Friday, announcing a one-year deal with free agent left-hander Caleb Ferguson that will reportedly pay the Excel Sports client $3MM. The Bucs have open roster spots and thus do not need to make a corresponding move.

Ferguson, 28, has been a solid southpaw reliever in the big leagues for a few years now. He missed the 2021 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery but put up good numbers in the three seasons before that, followed by the three seasons after the procedure. Overall, he has logged 261 2/3 innings, allowing 3.68 earned runs per nine. His 9.4% walk rate is a bit higher than average but barely so, while his 27.5% strikeout rate is a few ticks better than par and his 45.6% ground ball rate above average as well.

His ERA ticked up a bit in 2024, though a deep dive on the numbers suggests he was as effective as before, with bad luck contributing to the extra runs allowed. Between the Yankees and Astros, he tossed 54 1/3 innings with a 4.64 ERA. But his 26.9% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 46.7% ground ball rate were all pretty close to his career norms. His .340 batting average on balls in play and 66.6% strand rate were both on the unfortunate side of average, which is why metrics like his 3.74 FIP and 3.43 SIERA were closer to his career ERA.

He’s a sensible pickup for the Pirates, who lost each of Aroldis Chapman, Jalen Beeks and Ryan Borucki to free agency at season’s end. The departure of those three southpaws left them with Joey Wentz, a September waiver claim with a 5.56 career ERA, as the only lefty reliever on the roster. Ferguson immediately becomes the top southpaw in Pittsburgh’s bullpen.

That doesn’t mean he’ll be limited to a specialty role, as his splits aren’t too drastic. He has naturally been better against left-handed hitters, holding them to a line of .231/.333/.375 in his career, but righties have been only marginally more effective against him with a .245/.321/.381 line. He has earned six saves and 49 holds in his career, so perhaps he will step into a setup role, depending on what other moves the Pirates make for their bullpen this winter.

There also seems to be some possibility of Ferguson ending up in the rotation, as MLB.com’s Alex Stumpf reports that the Bucs will stretch him out in spring training. That would be an interesting pivot for Ferguson, as he has almost exclusively been in the bullpen in his big league career. He does have 14 starts on his ledger, but most of those were of the “opener” variety for just an inning or two.

He did come up as a starter in the minor leagues, however, so it wouldn’t be totally foreign to him. As mentioned, he has fairly neutral splits, perhaps allowing him to pitch through a full lineup. He also has a fairly diverse pitch mix for a reliever. Per Statcast, he threw four different pitches at least 9.8% of the time last year: a four-seamer, sinker, cutter and slurve. He didn’t lean on any one pitch too much, topping out at 43.3% usage with the four-seamer. Statcast also categorized 0.2% of his pitches as a sweeper.

Converting relievers into starters has been a popular trend in recent years, with guys like Seth Lugo, Michael King, Garrett Crochet and Reynaldo López some of the better success stories. On the other hand, the results with Jordan Hicks were mixed and the A.J. Puk conversion was quickly abandoned.

It’s an understandable gambit, given the high prices of starting pitchers, as even fliers on high-risk guys have been getting into eight-figure territory this winter. Walker Buehler got $21.05MM coming off a bad year. Guys like Alex Cobb and Justin Verlander got $15MM despite being fairly old by big league standards and coming off injury-marred seasons.

Making a $3MM investment in Ferguson and turning him into a passable backend starter could be a nice bit of business, but there are reasons to think it might not come to pass. As mentioned, the Bucs have an obvious need for a lefty reliever, whereas the rotation is the strongest part of the roster. They are going into the season with a strong starting core of Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller, with guys like Bailey Falter, Johan Oviedo, Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler and Thomas Harrington all candidates for the back end.

The simplest and perhaps most likely outcome is that the Bucs simply use those guys in the rotation and move Ferguson to the bullpen, but there’s little harm in stretching him out in the spring to see what it looks like. It’s far easier to go from long outings to short ones early in the year, as opposed to getting stretched out midseason. The spring is the right time to do a little experimenting, as Ferguson can easily slide to the bullpen if it doesn’t work out or if the Pirates ultimately prefer other arms in that role.

At the very least, stretching Ferguson as a starter in spring training could open the door for him to function as a true multi-inning bullpen piece. He worked more than one inning on 11 occasions last year — more with Houston post-trade than with the Yankees prior — but topped out at two innings. Given his pitch mix and neutral splits, it’s not out of the question that he could have success working in slightly longer relief outings while also keeping the door cracked for the occasional spot start or opener assignment in the event of a bullpen game.

Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette first reported the agreement. Alex Stumpf of MLB.com first reported the terms of the deal.

83 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions

2025 Arbitration Tracker

By ,, and | at January 9, 2025 9:45pm CDT

Today is the deadline for players and teams to exchange figures in arbitration — an annual deadline that leads to a slew of one-year deals and, typically, a handful of multi-year deals. Today should see upwards of 100 players agree to salaries for the 2025 season, although the majority of clubs and players now wait until the very last minute to agree. The deadline for agreements is noon CT, and we’ll see terms on plenty of last-minute/buzzer-beating deals filter in shortly thereafter. Players and teams that do not reach an agreement will exchange salary figures at 7pm CT tonight.

Each player’s service time is in parentheses, and you can of course check back to see each player’s projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. We’ll keep this updated as deals come in — refresh for updates — and break off some of the larger, more prominent agreements in separate entries. All agreements are for one year unless otherwise noted.

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays 

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks 

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

34 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Newsstand Transactions

Kirk McCarty Re-Signs With CPBL’s CTBC Brothers

By | at January 9, 2025 7:57pm CDT

Left-hander Kirk McCarty is re-signing with the CTBC Brothers of the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan (h/t to CPBL Stats). McCarty first signed with the club prior to the 2024 season but will be returning to pitch for them again in 2025.

McCarty, 29, was a seventh-round pick by Cleveland back in 2017 and made his big league debut in 2022. That remains his only season of big league action. He spent 13 games as a swingman in the Guardians’ bullpen, starting two games and finishing six as he cobbled together 37 2/3 innings of work. The results left something to be desired, however, as he posted a 4.54 ERA (84 ERA+) with a 6.64 FIP.

Somewhat unusually, McCarty’s time in Cleveland was actually broken up by a brief sojourn to the Orioles organization in 2022, in the middle of his time as an up-and-down hurler for the Guardians. The club actually designated him for assignment after his third appearance of the year on July 2, at which point he had a 9.00 ERA in 12 innings of work. He played just one game in the Baltimore organization (a four-inning start at the Triple-A level) before he was once again designated for assignment and claimed off waivers by the Guardians on July 14, ending his week away from the organization.

McCarty’s ten appearances with the Guardians after being re-acquired went far better, as he pitched to a strong 2.45 ERA in 25 2/3 frames across ten appearances. With that being said, there were still some red flags in the peripherals; while McCarty’s 6.9% walk rate was excellent, his 17.8% strikeout rate left much to be desired and he surrendered a whopping five home runs during that time. That left him with a 5.18 in even during his best stretch of play in the majors, so it wasn’t much of a surprise when the Guardians released McCarty early in the 2022-23 offseason.

It wasn’t long after that when McCarty signed a deal with the Korea Baseball Organization’s SSG Landers, and he pitched as a starter for the club in 2023. Things went quite well for the southpaw during his first year overseas, as he pitched to a strong 3.39 ERA in 24 starts and struck out 21.4% of opponents in 130 innings of work. That solid performance wasn’t enough to keep McCarty in the KBO for 2024, however, and he instead headed to Taiwan to pitch for the Brothers. The southpaw was utterly dominant in the CPBL, making the most out of his 81 2/3 innings over 13 starts. McCarty posted a sterling 2.76 ERA despite striking out just 18.5% of opponents faced during the season.

Those lackluster strikeout numbers may have held McCarty’s prospects back somewhat in free agency, but the Brothers were evidently happy to have him back in the fold, where he’ll look to further establish himself as a strong rotation option in hopes of potentially making it back to the majors at some point in the future.

7 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Chinese Professional Baseball League Transactions

Blue Jays, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Avoid Arbitration

By | at January 9, 2025 6:58pm CDT

The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. have agreed to a $28.5MM salary to avoid an arbitration hearing, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. This does not prevent the sides from discussing a long-term deal in advance of Guerrero’s final year of club control.

Guerrero and the Jays went to a hearing last offseason. The star first baseman proved triumphant and secured a $19.9MM salary rather than the team’s filing figure of $18.05MM. They won’t go through that process this time around. Guerrero agrees to an $8.6MM raise for what’ll be his last trip through the process. That’s a hair below the $29.6MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. He’ll nevertheless be the highest-paid player in this year’s arbitration group. Guerrero wasn’t far off joining Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto as the only players to eclipse the $30MM mark in arbitration.

The far more intriguing question is whether this will be Guerrero’s final contract with the Blue Jays. The four-time All-Star said last month that the Jays had offered him an extension in the $340MM range. Guerrero indicated that was well below his asking price, which USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has suggested is at or above $450MM. The first baseman said he was willing to continue negotiations until the start of Spring Training. He indicated he would test free agency next offseason if no deal is in place once exhibition play begins.

Guerrero finished sixth in MVP balloting last season. He raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers and 44 doubles. His numbers weren’t too far off what he’d produced when he was runner-up behind Ohtani in MVP voting in 2021. He’s on track to get to free agency at age 27, where he and Kyle Tucker would headline the class.

60 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Toronto Blue Jays Transactions

Astros, Framber Valdez Avoid Arbitration

By | at January 9, 2025 6:33pm CDT

The Astros and left-hander Framber Valdez have agreed to an $18MM salary to avoid arbitration, per a report from Chandler Rome of The Athletic. The deal comes in just $200K over Valdez’s $17.8MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and represents a $5.9MM raise over Valdez’s 2024 salary. Valdez is represented by Octagon.

The 31-year-old southpaw was dominant as ever for Houston last season. In 28 starts for the club, Valdez posted an excellent 2.91 ERA in 176 1/3 innings of work with a 3.25 FIP while striking out 24% of opponents and walking just 7.8%. Perhaps most impressively, Valdez generated an excellent 60.6% groundball rate that led all qualified major league hurlers this year. While Valdez was snubbed from making his third career All-Star appearance, the lefty finished in the top ten of AL Cy Young award voting for the third consecutive season and even earned some down-ballot consideration for the AL MVP award. That strong performance earned Valdez a deal that comes in slightly above projections ahead for his final season before he hits free agency in the fall.

If there was a downside to Valdez’s strong 2024 campaign, it was his health early in the year. The lefty missed most of April due to a bout of elbow soreness that sent him to the shelf after just two starts. While even the mildest elbow issues can cause alarm among fans due to their association with Tommy John surgery, Valdez evidently wasn’t slowed down significantly by the issue. While he made just 28 starts this year as opposed to 31 the prior two seasons, he was healthy and effective as always after returning to the mound on April 28 and showed no signs of losing steam as the year dragged on. In fact, it was just the opposite. While much of the Astros rotation was plagued with injury issues throughout the summer as they struggled to come back from an early-season deficit in the standings, Valdez was utterly dominant down the stretch with a 1.96 ERA in 12 starts after the All-Star break that helped Houston pull away from the Mariners in the AL West late in the second half.

In 2025, Valdez figures to be the club’s undisputed ace with future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander having departed for San Francisco in free agency. He’ll lead a rotation that also figures to include Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, and Hayden Wesneski to open the season, with additional help from Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. expected later in the year. The losses of Verlander and outfielder Kyle Tucker along with the all-but-official departure of longtime third baseman Alex Bregman and the possibility of trading veteran reliever Ryan Pressly leave the Astros looking quite different as compared to the club that won the World Series in 2022, and with Valdez just one year from free agency things could look even more different this time next year.

Earlier this winter, there were questions over whether Valdez would remain in Houston for the 2025 or if the club would deal him ahead of his final year of team control as they had Tucker. Those rumors have died down at this point, however, and the club now plans to keep him in the fold for the coming season. It’s unclear how seriously the Astros will pursue a reunion with Valdez when he reaches free agency next season; at one point the sides engaged in extension talks but the same could be said for both Bregman and Tucker, both of whom will be playing elsewhere next season. In the meantime, the Astros have brought in Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to help bolster the offense, as they try to get back to the ALCS in 2025 after failing to make it there last year for the first time since 2016.

5 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Houston Astros Transactions

Cardinals Claim Bailey Horn

By | at January 9, 2025 3:08pm CDT

The Cardinals announced that they have claimed left-handed reliever Bailey Horn off waivers from the Tigers. Detroit designated him for assignment last week. The Cardinals already have multiple open 40-man spots, so a corresponding move isn’t necessary.

The 26-year-old Horn has now ridden the waiver carousel from Boston, to Detroit to St. Lous in just over a month’s time. He made his big league debut with the Red Sox in 2024, pitching 18 innings and surrendering 13 runs on the strength of 22 hits and 10 walks with 13 strikeouts. The resulting 6.50 ERA isn’t much to look at, but Horn is a 2020 fifth-rounder (White Sox) who’s had some success in the upper minors and been involved in one trade of some note — when the Sox sent him crosstown to the Cubs in a 2021 deal for Ryan Tepera.

Last year with the Red Sox, who acquired him in April following another DFA, he tossed 29 1/3 innings in Triple-A and logged a minuscule 2.15 ERA with an impressive 29.2% strikeout rate. Horn’s 11.7% walk rate was too high, but those rate stats are generally representative of how he’s performed throughout his minor league career. He’s punched out 29% of his opponents in four minor league seasons but also issued a walk to nearly 13% of the batters he’s faced.

Horn still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, making him a flexible bullpen piece for the Cardinals in the short- or perhaps long-term. He sits just shy of 95 mph on his heater and misses bats at a high enough level to provide some intrigue for a Cards organization that’s light on bullpen certainty (particularly if closer Ryan Helsley is traded before Opening Day or prior to the summer trade deadline).

One thing St. Louis does have a fair bit of, however, is left-handed relief depth. Horn will join a mix including JoJo Romero, John King, Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson. They’re not all proven in the majors, but it’s a solid collection of southpaws all the same. Romero is only controlled through 2026, so if things go south for the Cards in the season’s first half, he could end up a summer trade chip himself, potentially opening the door even further for an opportunity for the newly acquired Horn.

29 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Detroit Tigers St. Louis Cardinals Transactions

Cubs Acquire Matt Festa

By | at January 9, 2025 3:07pm CDT

The Cubs have acquired right-hander Matt Festa from the Rangers in exchange for cash considerations, both teams announced. Festa was designated for assignment by the Rangers earlier this week to accommodate the signing of Chris Martin. To make room for Festa on the 40-man roster, the Cubs have designated utility man Miles Mastrobuoni for assignment.

Festa, 31, was a seventh-round pick by the Mariners back in 2016. The righty looked good during his first cup of coffee at the big league level back in 2018, but a subsequent cameo with the Mariners in 2019 saw him struggle badly with a 5.64 ERA in 20 appearances. That would be his last taste of big league action for a couple of years, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020 and next pitched for the Mariners during the 2022 season. He was more or less an average middle reliever for Seattle over the next two seasons, with a 4.14 ERA (91 ERA+) and 4.48 FIP in 63 innings of work before he was designated for assignment and eventually released late in the 2023 season.

That led into a one-year period where Festa bounced around a number of different teams in the league. After being picked up on a minor league deal with the Padres last January, Festa did not crack the club’s big league roster out of Spring Training and pitched to a solid but unspectacular 4.50 ERA in 16 innings before San Diego granted him his release in mid-May. He signed with the Mets on a minor league deal just a few days later and was selected to the club’s big league roster in the late June, but found himself torched for five runs (four earned) in his lone inning of work with the club before he was once again cut loose. That led him to sign his third minor league deal of the year, this time with the Rangers, in early July.

After being added to the Rangers roster for the stretch run back in August, Festa pitched solidly enough with a 4.37 ERA (92 ERA+) and a strong 3.34 FIP. He posted some of the best strikeout and walk numbers he’s ever enjoyed at the big league level during his time in Texas as he punched out 25% of opponents while allowing free passes at a 7.6% clip. His peripheral numbers were something of a mixed bag during that time; while his .254 BABIP and 5.9% home-run-to-fly-ball rate both erred on the side of good fortune, Festa’s 54.1% strand rate was extremely low and suggested some bad luck when it came to sequencing.

It was an interesting enough profile for the Rangers to keep him on the 40-man roster early in the winter, but he became expendable once the club added a number of more reliable relief arms to their bullpen throughout the offseason. Now, he’ll head to Chicago with a chance to compete for a role in the Cubs’ bullpen this Spring. Currently, Chicago’s relief corps includes fellow offseason trade addition Eli Morgan, free agent signing Caleb Thielbar, and a handful of internal options such as Porter Hodge, Julian Merryweather, Luke Little, Tyson Miller, and Nate Pearson. It’s a group with plenty of flexibility but few set-in-stone options, and it would hardly be a surprise to see the Cubs continue to search for bullpen upgrades going forward this winter.

To bring Festa into the fold, the Cubs are risking parting ways with Mastrobuoni. The utility man has played adequate defense all over the diamond for Chicago in each of the past two seasons but has failed to establish himself offensively ever since being acquired from the Rays prior to the 2023 season. In 255 trips to the plate with the Cubs in 110 games over the past two years, Mastrobuoni has hit just .221/.282/.268. While his 15 stolen bases in 16 attempts and his ability to play the outfield corners, shortstop, second and third base have helped him provide value outside the batters’ box, that anemic slash line makes it easy to see why the club would decide to move on.

Even without Mastrobuoni in the fold, the Cubs figure to have plenty internal depth available in terms of utility players who can hit from the left side, with recent acquisition Vidal Bruján and Rule 5 Draft selection Gage Workman both currently in the mix for a bench job in 2025. Going forward, Chicago will have one week to either trade Mastrobuoni or place him on waivers. It’s not impossible to imagine a club bringing Mastrobuoni, who has a minor league option remaining, into the fold as optionable depth. Should he clear waivers, the Cubs will have the opportunity to outright him to Triple-A as a non-roster depth option for the 2025 campaign.

35 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Chicago Cubs Texas Rangers Transactions

Athletics Sign CD Pelham To Minor League Deal

By | at January 9, 2025 2:57pm CDT

The Athletics have agreed to a minor league contract with left-hander CD Pelham, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal for the Pro Edge Sports Management client includes an invitation to big league spring training.

Pelham is a minor league journeyman who has spent time in the Rangers, Cubs, Padres, and Angels organizations over the past 10 years. Texas drafted the southpaw 978th overall in 2015. A little more than three years later, he made his MLB debut in Arlington, suiting up for the Rangers in 10 games down the stretch of the 2018 season. Over 7 2/3 innings, he gave up six earned runs on 12 hits, striking out seven but walking four. Unfortunately, Pelham struggled badly in the minors the following year, putting up an 11.97 ERA and 7.86 FIP in 42 games between Double and Triple-A. Suffice it to say, he did not make his way back to the majors with Texas. Instead, he found himself designated for assignment after the season.

The Cubs claimed Pelham off of waivers in November 2019. Yet, due to the canceled 2020 season and an injury that cost him the 2021 campaign, he did not appear in a game with the Cubs organization until May 2022. He was solid but unspectacular that year at Double and Triple-A, posting a 4.35 ERA and 4.73 FIP in 41 1/3 innings of work. After electing free agency, Pelham latched on with the Padres for 2023, but an injury and an inconsistent performance left him with a final line of 14 1/3 IP and a 7.53 ERA across a handful of stops in San Diego’s farm system.

Pelham opened the 2024 campaign in the Mexican League, pitching well enough for the Leones de Yucatán (1.04 ERA in 17 1/3 IP) to land a minor league deal with the Angels mid-season. Yet, despite his pitching to a 1.80 ERA and 3.75 FIP over 10 games in the Angels system, he was released at the end of July.

The southpaw returned to Mexico this offseason to pitch in the Pacific Winter League. He has thrived with the Tomateros de Culiacan (2.25 ERA in 28 IP), and evidently, the A’s liked what they saw. It’s still a long shot that Pelham will make it back to the majors in 2025, but the Athletics’ lack of pitching depth gives him a chance to return to a major league mound for the first time since 2018.

8 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Athletics Transactions

Mariners Claim Tyler Jay

By | at January 9, 2025 2:50pm CDT

The Mariners announced that they have claimed left-hander Tyler Jay off waivers from the Brewers. The latter club designated him for assignment a week ago when they acquired Grant Anderson. Seattle’s 40-man roster had a vacancy but is now full.

Jay, 31, was the sixth overall pick in the 2015 draft but it took him almost a decade to get to the big leagues. Various injuries, including surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, slowed his rise through the minors. By the end of the 2019 season, he had topped out at Double-A, then didn’t pitch in any official capacity in 2020 or 2021. That was followed by stints in indy ball in the next two years, which led to the Mets taking a flier on him on a minor league deal.

In April of last year, he finally got up to the majors, though was on and off rosters all year. The Mets selected his contract in mid-April but outrighted him a few days later. He was back up in June, then designated for assignment a second time in July. His second DFA resulted in getting traded to the Brewers, though that club kept him mostly on optional assignment. He finished the year with 7 2/3 innings pitched between his two clubs, allowing four earned runs while walking six batters and recording six strikeouts.

That’s a tiny sample size, so the Mariners are probably more interested in the minor league numbers. Jay tossed 56 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level last year, between the two organizations, allowing 3.02 earned runs per nine. He had a 20.9% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate. For what it’s worth, the strikeout rate jumped after he came to the Brewers, going from 18.6% with Syracuse to 25.7% with Nashville, though his walk rate also went from 2.5% to 10.8% after the switch.

For the Mariners, they’re clearly intrigued enough to give Jay a roster spot, at least for now. He has just a few days of service time and a couple of option years remaining, so he can at least serve as a cheap depth piece with roster flexibility. As a former first-round pick and top prospect, perhaps there’s some untapped upside in there. They currently have Tayler Saucedo and Gabe Speier as the top lefties in their projected bullpen, with Austin Kitchen also on the roster. Jay will jump into that group and try to push for opportunities in the 2025 season.

21 comments
Share Repost Send via email
Milwaukee Brewers Seattle Mariners Transactions

Padres, Dylan Cease Avoid Arbitration

By | at January 9, 2025 12:52pm CDT

The Padres and Dylan Cease have avoided arbitration, as reported by Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The right-hander will earn $13.75MM in 2025. That’s $5.75MM more than his salary last season and just a hair over his $13.7MM salary projection, courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Cease, 29, was everything the Padres could have hoped for in 2024 after they sent Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte, Samuel Zavala, and  Steven Wilson to the White Sox last March to acquire him. In a league-leading 33 starts, Cease pitched to a 3.47 ERA and 3.46 SIERA. He finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting. The Padres went 20-13 (.606) in his outings.

The 2024 campaign marked a resurgent bounceback for Cease following his disappointing 2023. After finishing runner-up in the AL Cy Young race in 2022, the righty lost velocity on his fastball the next season and finished with a 4.58 ERA. The underlying numbers suggested Cease was the victim of some rotten luck (and some terrible defense), but no matter how you sliced it, he didn’t look quite as dominant as he was the year before. In addition to his declining velocity, his strikeout rate was down, his hard-hit rate was up, and his 4.10 SIERA ranked 25th out of 43 qualified pitchers.

In 2024, Cease put all concerns to bed and proved he is still a frontline starting pitcher. His velocity was back up on all his pitches, and he even toyed with a new sweeper – to good results (.218 wOBA, 38.5% whiff rate). He ranked among the top 10 qualified pitchers in SIERA, FIP, and xERA, while cementing himself as one of the most durable starters in the league. Over the past four years, no one has started more games. Even the diminished version of Cease on display in 2023 would be well worth a $13.75MM salary. If he’s at the top of his game again in 2025, he’ll be one of the more underpaid aces around. Fortunately for Cease, if he can do that, he’ll be putting himself in a strong position to cash in big as a free agent next winter.

As for the Padres, they’ll be even more reliant on Cease in 2025 after losing fellow All-Star righty Joe Musgrove to a UCL injury in October. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, Musgrove will miss the entire 2025 campaign. That makes it all the more surprising that Cease’s name has come up in trade speculation this offseason. While there is no indication the Padres are actively shopping their ace, teams have inquired about his availability, and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has not said anything to shut down the trade rumors. As ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote, teams that have called the Padres about Cease “haven’t been rebuffed entirely.”

The Padres are reportedly trying to get their payroll down to somewhere in between last year’s $169MM total and this year’s current estimate of $208MM (per RosterResource). Trading Cease and his $13.75MM salary could allow the Padres to accomplish that. He’s not their most expensive player, but of the nine Padres set to earn eight figures in 2025, he is certainly the most tradeable. Still, the Padres are planning to compete this season, and it’s very difficult to imagine them trading their best starting pitcher to trim payroll without significantly hurting their chances in the NL West. It’s hard enough to find a pitcher of Cease’s caliber at any price, let alone on a one-year, $13.75MM deal.

71 comments
Share Repost Send via email
San Diego Padres Transactions
Show all
Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors