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The Blue Jays agreed to sign first-round pick Deck McGuire for $2MM, according to Kendall Rogers of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). Toronto scouting director Andrew Tinnish used the first of his high picks on the 6’6” Virginia native  when the Blue Jays selected the Georgia Tech righty 11th overall. Last year, MLB recommended a $1.863MM bonus for the 11th-overall selection.

Click here for the complete list of 2010 first-rounders to sign.

The upcoming free agent class has its share of big names, including Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford.  Lee's free agency was delayed by one year because of the extension he signed with the Indians four years ago.  Crawford's chance at a huge payday was pushed back two years because of a deal he signed with the Rays more than five years ago.  Imagine if all players took the riskier but more potentially lucrative approach, forsaking multiyear extensions.  These players would be hitting the market:

• Catchers: Yadier Molina, Chris Snyder.  Molina lost money by choosing the security of a long-term deal, though Snyder was smart to sign one.
• First basemen: Kevin Youkilis, Justin Morneau.  I doubt they have regrets about signing, but both players would be primed for huge free agent contracts this winter.  Then again Morneau hasn't played since July 7th due to a concussion and Youkilis' season ended on August 2nd with a thumb injury.  Maybe teams would have been cautious of major commitments.
• Second basemen: Brandon Phillips.  He would've scored big on the open market; there's not much at this position and he's only 29. 
• Shortstops: Maicer Izturis, Ramon Santiago.
• Third basemen: David Wright.  Wright's had his ups and downs this year but as a 28-year-old he would have done well.
• Outfielders: Grady Sizemore, David DeJesus, Jason Kubel, Alex Rios, Nick Swisher.  DeJesus and Kubel have club options that will probably be exercised.  Sizemore's contract was once considered a massive bargain, but now his 2012 option is in question.  Rios and Swisher would be entering free agency off strong seasons.
• Starting pitchers: Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, Scott Kazmir, Joe Blanton.  Greinke might be wishing he didn't have another two years on his contract, while Haren could probably beat the two years and $29MM he has remaining.  Kazmir and Blanton, though, are likely glad they have security.
• Relievers: Huston Street, Matt Thornton.  Contrasting would-be contract years.  Street didn't debut until June 23rd this year due to a shoulder injury.  Thornton continues to dominate, making his 2011 club option an easy decision.

More than 50 players will be eligible for arbitration for the last time after this season.  For some it will represent the biggest payday of their careers to this point.  Other useful but overpaid players will be non-tendered and will reach free agency a year early.  Here's a look at the final-year arbitration class, with 2010 base salaries included.  Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

Expected To Be Tendered Contracts

• Prince Fielder, Brewers.
• Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox – $9.35MM.
• Dan Uggla, Marlins – $7.8MM.
• Ryan Ludwick, Padres – $5.45MM.
• Wandy Rodriguez, Astros – $5MM.
• Josh Willingham, Nationals – $4.6MM.
• Jason Kubel, Twins – $4.1MM, $5.25MM club option for '11.
• Jason Bartlett, Rays – $4MM.
• Heath Bell, Padres – $4MM.
• Matt Capps, Twins – $3.5MM.
• C.J. Wilson, Rangers – $3.1MM.
• Rickie Weeks, Brewers – $2.75MM.
• Jose Bautista, Blue Jays – $2.4MM.
• Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks – $2.35MM.
• Shawn Camp, Blue Jays – $1.15MM.
• Chris Ray, Giants – $975K.
• Matt Belisle, Rockies – $850K.
• Jonny Gomes, Reds – $800K, $1.75MM club option for '11.
• Javier Lopez, Giants – $775K.
• R.A. Dickey, Mets – $600K.
• Wilson Betemit, Royals – salary unknown.

Non-Tender Candidates

• Bobby Jenks, White Sox – $7.5MM.
• J.J. Hardy, Twins – $5.1MM.
• Jeff Francoeur, Mets – $5MM.
• Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays – $4.75MM.
• George Sherrill, Dodgers – $4.5MM.
• Cody Ross, Marlins – $4.45MM.
• Zach Duke, Pirates – $4.3MM.
• Casey Kotchman, Mariners – $3.5175MM.
• Clint Barmes, Rockies – $3.325MM.
• John Maine, Mets – $3.3MM.
• Conor Jackson, Athletics – $3.1MM.
• Chad Gaudin, Yankees – $2.95MM.
• Matt Diaz, Braves – $2.55MM.
• Scott Hairston, Padres – $2.45MM.
• Jose Lopez, Mariners – $2.3MM, $4.5MM club option for '11.
• Dioner Navarro, Rays – $2.1MM. 
• Todd Coffey, Brewers – $2.025MM.
• Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals – $2MM.
• Brian Tallet, Blue Jays – $2MM.
• Kyle Davies, Royals – $1.8MM.
• Tim Byrdak, Astros – $1.6MM.
• Ryan Church, Diamondbacks – $1.5MM.
• Greg Dobbs, Phillies – $1.35MM.
• Lance Cormier, Rays – $1.2MM.
• Ronny Cedeno, Pirates – $1.125MM.
• Scott Olsen, Nationals – $1MM.
• Joel Zumaya, Tigers – $915K.
• Clay Condrey, Twins – $900K.
• Sergio Mitre, Yankees – $850K.
• Augie Ojeda, Diamondbacks – $825K.
• Gabe Gross, Athletics – $750K.
• Tyler Walker, Nationals – $650K.
• Ryan Langerhans, Mariners – $525K.

Often times, a club option is an easy call to make. Kerry Wood's $11MM option isn't going to be exercised, and Bill Hall can forget about being paid $9.25MM in 2011. Eric Chavez at $12.5MM? Not happening. On the other side of the coin, Albert Pujols is a no-brainer at $16MM, and there's some easy lower profile calls like Matt Thornton's $3MM option.

But a closer look at some of the options out there makes for some interesting discussion. Let's take a look at a few cases that aren't as black and white:

• Mark Ellis, $6MM, $500K buyout: Ellis has spent his whole career with the A's, and has enjoyed some fine seasons. From 2007-2008, he was a 6.8 WAR second baseman playing great defense and posting passable, though not outstanding offensive numbers. He's injury-prone, however, and UZR suggests that his defense has suffered the past two seasons. Fangraphs valued his services at $5.2MM in 2009 and $2.8MM so far in 2010. Will he be worth $6MM in 2011? Ellis profiles as a Type B free agent, so letting him walk (assuming he declines arbitration) would net a supplemental pick.
• Nick Punto, $5MM, $500K buyout: Another injury-prone infielder, Punto's glove does his talking for him. While he's had some passable offensive seasons, he's certainly not a reliable source for production at the plate. Punto's defensive excellence makes him an asset at three positions, but his injuries and and weak bat are reason enough to be hesitant with the option.
• Jeff Francis, $7MM: Francis has returned after missing all of 2009 to post a 4.56 ERA, which is considerably higher than both his FIP and xFIP suggest it should be. He's on the disabled list again now with shoulder soreness though, and he's totaled just 92.2 innings this season after rehabbing from shoulder surgery until mid-May. A healthy Francis is worth $7MM, but having missed 2009 and being on the DL once again, that's far from a guarantee.
• Kevin Gregg, $4.5MM for 2011 or $8.75MM for 2011-2012, $750K buyout: Gregg's racking up the strikeouts and saves in his first season as Toronto's closer, but he's also walking hitters at a prolific rate (4.63 BB/9). His ERA is down from last season mostly due to allowing far fewer long balls, but his inconsistency and affinity for free passes make him a risky investment. Like Ellis, Gregg will be a Type B free agent.

These players represent only a handful of the options clubs will be faced with following the 2010 season. You can see other players' options by looking at our 2011 free agent list. While none of these are overly pricey, the difference that a few extra million can make on the free agent market could be sizable. Vladimir Guerrero ($6.5MM), Jim Thome ($1.5MM), and Brett Myers ($5.1MM) are just a few free agents who were inked in this price range last offseason.

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On October 5th and November 20th of last year I named my non-tender candidates.  On December 12th, many players were actually cut.  With the benefit of hindsight, consider these groupings:

Thankfully Tendered Contracts: Jose Bautista, Matt Lindstrom, Delmon Young, Matt Belisle

The Blue Jays tendered Bautista a contract and signed him the following day at the same salary he had in 2009 ($2.4MM).  To me that's a sign that if Bautista had communicated the desire for a raise prior to the December 12th deadline, he would've been non-tendered.  The Astros did well to buy low on Lindstrom, who probably wouldn't have been tendered a contract had he stayed with the Marlins.

The Twins never considered cutting Young despite an unimpressive '09 season.  He's only earning $2.6MM this year, anyway.  Including him on the list of non-tender candidates was entirely my bad idea.  Belisle received a very small raise from the Rockies and has been excellent out of their pen.

Should Have Been Tendered Contracts: Matt Capps, John Buck, D.J. Carrasco, Kelly Johnson

Jonny Gomes was left off the list since the Reds were able to re-sign him cheaply.  Given the strong play of Martin Prado for the Braves, you could make the case that cutting Johnson was the right move.  But we are operating with the benefit of hindsight here, and maybe they could've found him some playing time and rebuilt his value.

Capps was a surprise non-tender by the Pirates.  GM Neal Huntington did well in the Octavio Dotel trade, but what if he had been able to peddle both relievers?  Retaining Buck would've made sense for the Royals, but they spent more money on a player lacking upside in Jason Kendall.  I wouldn't say the White Sox badly needed D.J. Carrasco, but he retained value this year.

Should Have Been Non-Tendered: Bobby Jenks, Mark Teahen, Jeremy Hermida, John Maine, Conor Jackson, Dioner Navarro, Brian Bruney, Kelly Shoppach, Jeff Francoeur

In mid-December most of these risks were worth taking.  Jenks hasn't been as bad as his 5.13 ERA, but the White Sox could've spent that money elsewhere.  Obviously traded players like Bruney, Hermida, Shoppach, and Teahen weren't going to be non-tendered by their new teams.  But did the White Sox and Rays have to give Teahen and Shoppach multiyear deals?  Overall these nine players earned over $30MM in 2010. 

With so many top prospects untouchable these days, let's take a look at the ones who were traded last offseason or this summer.  We'll use the preseason top 100 lists from Baseball America and ESPN's Keith Law unless otherwise noted.

Traded This Summer

• Justin Smoak (1B), by Rangers to Mariners in Cliff Lee deal.  The Mariners reportedly chose between Smoak and Jesus Montero of the Yankees as the centerpiece of the Lee trade.  Smoak was rated #13 by BA and #9 by Law before the season.
• Brett Wallace (1B), by Blue Jays to Astros for Anthony Gose.  This was the second time in about seven months Wallace was involved in a prospect-for-prospect deal.  BA had him at #27 and Law at #20.  Wallace remained in the #26-50 range in BA's midseason rankings.
• Wilson Ramos (C), by Twins to Nationals for Matt Capps.  Ramos was ranked #58 by BA and #42 by Law, and moved up in BA's midseason rankings despite an uninspiring Triple A performance.  That doesn't mean they value Ramos more highly now, though – the midseason list is weaker than the offseason one due to prospects graduating to the Majors and 2010 draftees being left off.
• Dan Hudson (SP), by White Sox to Diamondbacks in Edwin Jackson deal.  Hudson was at #66 by BA before the season, but fell outside of Law's top 100.
• Generally speaking the stock of these traded players dropped at least a little since they cracked preseason top 100 prospect lists.  Hudson might be the exception, as he proved he could hold his own at Triple A. 

Traded In The Offseason

• Of the seven top 100 prospects traded in the offseason, five were linked to the Roy Halladay/Cliff Lee blockbuster: Kyle Drabek, Travis d'Arnaud, Wallace, Michael Taylor, and Phillippe Aumont.  Drabek, Wallace, and d'Arnaud were still ranked in BA's midseason top 50.  Taylor and Aumont were not.
• Austin Jackson (OF), by Yankees to Tigers in Curtis Granderson deal.  Jackson has had a solid rookie season, as he's hitting .307/.355/.411.  He was ranked #76 by BA and #70 by Law.
• Arodys Vizcaino (SP), by Yankees to Braves in Javier Vazquez deal.  Vizcaino was at #43 on Law's preseason list but did not appear on BA's.  He did crack BA's midseason top 50.

How about players who were considered top 100 prospects before the 2009 season, traded within the last year?  Michael Main (SP), James McDonald (SP), Andrew Lambo (OF), Daniel Schlereth (RP), and Aaron Cunningham (OF) fit the bill.

Contenders are almost always on the lookout for bullpen help after the All-Star break.  The Rays, Red Sox, Phillies, and Reds are a few clubs that may continue the hunt into August.  Here's a look at who might be available, including their 2010 salaries, 2011 buyouts, and no-trade protection. 

• Brian Fuentes, Angels (LHP) - $9MM.  The Angels are eight games out with a 2.5% shot at the playoffs.  If they give up on the season, unloading some of Fuentes' contract makes sense.  He's pitched decently and flashed the ability to neutralize lefties in various seasons. 
• Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks (RHP) - $8.5MM.  Webb may try to come back as a reliever, but the latest word is of a skipped bullpen session.  A trade seems a long shot.  Gil Meche fits into this boat as well, but he's owed big money in 2011. 
• Trevor Hoffman, Brewers (RHP) – $7.5MM, $500K buyout, can block trades to 25 teams.  Perhaps Hoffman would prefer to close out the season with a contender.  He was decent in June and July.  On July 28th, Hoffman told MLB.com's Adam McCalvy he hasn't thought about the trade possibility and he's comfortable in Milwaukee. 
• Fernando Rodney, Angels (RHP) - $5.5MM in '10 and '11.  Maybe the Angels view Rodney as their closer for 2011, or maybe they'll acknowledge his flaws and try to escape the contract. 
• Scott Linebrink, White Sox (RHP) - $5.5MM, no-trade protection.  He's been homer-prone, but has whiffed a batter per inning.  A trade back to the NL with the Sox picking up most of the tab could work. 
• Scot Shields, Angels (RHP) - $5.35MM.  The lifelong Angel is healthy this year but the numbers haven't been there. 
• Koji Uehara, Orioles (RHP) - $5MM.  He battled an elbow strain but has pitched well in limited samples.   
• David Riske, Brewers (RHP) – $4.5MM, $250K buyout.  Back from Tommy John surgery, Riske hasn't been terrible. 
• George Sherrill, Dodgers (LHP) - $4.5MM, arbitration-eligible for '11, cleared waivers in July.  It's difficult to find a silver lining in Sherrill's season. 
• Brandon Lyon, Astros (RHP) – $4.25MM in '10, $5.25MM in '11, $5.5MM in '12.  The major difference from last year: groundballs are down.  The Astros are stuck with this contract.
• Rafael Betancourt, Rockies (RHP) - $3.775MM in '10 and '11.  His strikeout and walk rates are fantastic, but he allows tons of flyballs and home runs.  Betancourt may be a popular trade target this month. 
• LaTroy Hawkins, Brewers (RHP) – $3MM in 2010, $4MM in '11.  He's had a couple of scoreless appearances since coming off the DL July 30th from a shoulder injury.  He'd need several more to spark interest. 
• Pedro Feliciano, Mets (LHP) - $2.9MM.  Too many walks against righties, but remains death to lefties.  His likely Type B status may be a factor in the Mets' decision. 
• Jason Frasor, Blue Jays (RHP) – $2.65MM.  The Blue Jays could still trade Frasor now if they'd prefer not to risk offering him arbitration for a potential draft pick after the season. 
• Aaron Heilman, Diamondbacks (RHP) - $2.15MM.  Heilman is Arizona's de facto closer, not that he's pitched well in terms of peripheral stats. 
• Todd Coffey, Brewers (RHP) – $2.025MM, arbitration-eligible for '11.  He'd be a reasonable seventh-inning addition for a contender. 
• Brian Tallet, Blue Jays (LHP) – $2MM, arbitration-eligible for '11.  He's been solid against lefties this year, so maybe the Jays will eat some money and send him off. 
• Tony Pena, White Sox (RHP) – $1.2MM, arbitration-eligible for '11 and '12.  This isn't what the Sox had in mind when they traded Brandon Allen for Pena, but they might consider moving him now rather than non-tendering him after the season. 
• Mark Hendrickson, Orioles (LHP) - $1.2MM, $1.2MM club option for '11 with $200K buyout.  Handles lefties, comes cheap, really tall – what's not to like?
• Miguel Batista, Nationals (RHP) - $1MM.  The Nats may prefer to keep him around as Stephen Strasburg's understudy.
• Manny Delcarmen, Red Sox (RHP) - $905K, arbitration-eligible for '11 and '12.  The Red Sox seem willing to move him, but perhaps they'll want to add someone first. 
• Joe Beimel, Rockies (LHP) - $850K.  His 2.81 ERA is nice, but his other numbers predict rougher times. 
• Elmer Dessens, Mets (RHP) - $700K.  Another case of a good ERA and bad peripherals. 
• Chad Gaudin, Yankees (RHP) - $700K.  Could be expendable if Alfredo Aceves returns.
• Joel Peralta, Nationals (RHP) – $400K, arbitration-eligible for '11.  Small sample, but he's pitched well aside from a wealth of flyballs. 
• Note: the wheels are already in motion for potential trades of Chris Resop and/or Chan Ho Park.