Uncategorized News & Rumors

In our post on the free agent market for second basemen, we named nine clubs that may be looking for help at the position this offseason but only a handful of solid regulars.  Let's see how the trade market changes the supply.

Big Contracts

Chone Figgins (at least $26MM through 2013), Luis Castillo ($6MM in 2011), Carlos Guillen ($13MM in 2011), and Dan Uggla ($10MM+ in 2011) fill our well-compensated bracket of second base trade candidates.  The Mariners moved Figgins from third to second base this year, and he posted a .259 batting average but still drew 74 walks.  He could be swapped for another undesirable contract.  Castillo is owed less and was pretty good in 2009, but carries a negative reputation.  Guillen, who logged 393 innings at second this year, is viewed by Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski as a "jack of all trades."  That's a pricey utility man, and his stock is further depressed by September knee surgery.

Uggla is included here but is not necessarily available.  Perhaps he will be if the Marlins fail to extend him.

Utility Types

Jamey Carroll ($1.8MM), Skip Schumaker ($2.7MM), and Tony Abreu are utility types who can probably be had.  Carroll posted a career-best .379 OBP this year.  Abreu has crushed Pacific Coast League pitching in recent years, but hasn't performed in the bigs for Arizona.

Non-Tender Candidates

As mentioned in the free agent post, Jose Lopez, Ryan Theriot, Clint Barmes, Mike Fontenot, Willy Aybar, and Jeff Baker are non-tender candidates and therefore trade candidates.  In the cases of Lopez, Theriot, Barmes, and Aybar, teams can just wait for the December 2nd non-tender deadline unless they would prefer to avoid competition from other free agent bidders.  Fontenot and Baker could be tendered contracts.

Summary

I don't expect the Marlins to move Uggla this winter.  Unless they do, the trade market adds only a few bad contracts and utility men to the second base hot stove picture.

Based on Eddie Bajek's reverse-engineered Elias rankings, 83 free agents will be ranked Type A or B for the 2010-11 offseason.  Right now there are 33 Type A and 50 Type B free agents.  The list is below.  The deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their own free agents is November 23rd.  Prior to that date this list will shrink quite a bit, as certain players have options that will obviously be exercised, others will sign extensions, and Wagner and Lowell will retire.  If recent history is any indication, 23-24 free agents will ultimately be offered arbitration.  Keep in mind that unless a player is offered arbitration and turns it down to sign a Major League deal with another club, there is no draft pick compensation.

Type A

Albert Pujols – 96.667
Jayson Werth – 92.000
Rafael Soriano – 91.771
Derek Jeter – 91.304
Mariano Rivera – 88.609
Victor Martinez – 87.054
Cliff Lee – 86.932
Matt Thornton – 86.094
Carl Crawford – 84.615
Billy Wagner – 83.650
Adrian Beltre – 82.313
A.J. Pierzynski – 80.804
Andy Pettitte – 80.682
Vladimir Guerrero – 80.000
Ted Lilly – 79.950
Jason Kubel – 79.744
Bronson Arroyo – 79.538
Matt Guerrier – 79.483
Paul Konerko – 78.095
Magglio Ordonez – 77.436
Miguel Tejada – 76.720
Manny Ramirez – 76.154
Scott Downs – 76.069
Carl Pavano – 75.000
Ramon Hernandez – 74.517
Mark Ellis – 74.405
Dan Wheeler – 74.218
Jorge de la Rosa – 74.092
Jason Frasor – 73.446
Grant Balfour – 72.727
Frank Francisco – 72.584
Arthur Rhodes – 72.076
Takashi Saito – 69.749

Type B

David Ortiz – 75.000
Johnny Damon – 74.359
Derrek Lee – 74.167
Adam Dunn – 74.167
Hideki Matsui – 73.333
Javier Vazquez – 71.875
Jon Garland – 71.452
Brad Hawpe – 71.026
Bengie Molina – 72.321
Scott Podsednik – 70.588
Orlando Hudson – 70.238
Brandon Inge – 68.707
Jon Rauch – 68.541
Koji Uehara – 67.733
John Buck – 67.411
Felipe Lopez – 66.964
Brian Fuentes – 66.906
Pedro Feliciano – 66.733
Joaquin Benoit – 66.727
Kevin Gregg – 66.673
Orlando Cabrera – 66.667
Lance Berkman – 66.667
Octavio Dotel – 66.442
Juan Uribe – 65.608
Miguel Olivo – 65.251
Carlos Pena – 64.762
Jason Varitek – 64.732
David Eckstein – 64.732
Mike Lowell – 64.626
Jhonny Peralta – 63.946
Yorvit Torrealba – 63.707
Trevor Hoffman – 63.043
Kerry Wood – 62.666
Aramis Ramirez – 62.637
Jose Reyes – 62.434
Randy Choate – 62.379
J.J. Putz – 61.876
Adam LaRoche – 61.667
Omar Infante – 61.607
Alex Gonzalez – 61.376
Jesse Crain – 60.690
Gerald Laird – 60.045
Aubrey Huff – 60.000
Rod Barajas – 59.459
Hisanori Takahashi – 58.650
Aaron Heilman – 58.512
Chad Durbin – 58.359
Kevin Millwood – 58.049
Kevin Correia – 57.261
Chad Qualls – 56.126

One trait any GM looks for in a starting pitcher is a strong groundball rate.  According to FanGraphs, the free agent leaders (100 innings pitched minimum):

1. Jake Westbrook – 56.4%
2. Jorge de la Rosa – 52.3%
3. Jon Garland – 51.9%
4. Carl Pavano – 51.2%
5. Hiroki Kuroda – 51.1%

An honorable mention goes to free agent Brandon Webb, who had a 64.2% rate in 2008, his last full season.  How about a few trade candidates over 50% in 2010?  Derek Lowe, Aaron Cook, Paul Maholm, and Edwin Jackson fit the bill.

Ted Lilly is the anti-Westbrook, with a groundball rate of just 29.5%.  Bruce Chen, Javier Vazquez, and Aaron Harang also tend to keep the ball in the air.

It's difficult to define an innings eater these days, as almost all pitchers miss significant time due to injury at some point.  Still, let's take a shot in regard to the upcoming free agent class.

Regular Season Innings Leaders

1. Carl Pavano – 221
2. Bronson Arroyo – 215.6 (club option)
3. Cliff Lee – 212.3
4. Jake Westbrook – 202.6
t-5. Jon Garland – 200 (mutual option)
t-5. Rodrigo Lopez – 200
7. Hiroki Kuroda – 196.3
8. Ted Lilly – 193.6
9. Kevin Millwood – 190.6
10. Dave Bush – 174.3

Two years ago, who would have predicted Pavano would top this list?  Only six free agents reached 200 innings, and Arroyo could be off the market if the Reds pick up his option.  Pavano, Arroyo, and Lee will bolster their innings totals with playoff work.  Arroyo, Lee, Garland, Javier Vazquez, and Doug Davis exceeded 200 regular season innings last year.

If you're looking for efficiency, Lee and Pavano lead all of MLB in fewest pitches per inning.  Lilly and Arroyo fall within the top 20.

The offseason has officially begun for 22 MLB teams!  The free agent filing period won't start until the week of November 1st, but it's never too early to discuss the hot stove possibilities at the MLBTR Forums.  We've got over 7,500 members and counting.  You'll find areas for actual trade rumors, speculative trades, free agents, the draft, prospects, general baseball discussion, fantasy baseball, and all 30 teams.  Sign up today!

The MLB Players Association officially announced what MLBTR reported earlier in the week: that MLB and its players have agreed to make significant changes to the offseason calendar. Teams now have five days of exclusive negotiating rights with departing free agents instead of 15 and the deadlines for tendering contracts and offering and accepting arbitration have also been moved up. The date changes, which MLBTR reported in detail this Monday, will apply to the next two offseasons (2010-11 and 2011-12).

The Players Association also announced the implementation of “stricter rules” (for the MLBPA, MLB, clubs, players and agents) to guard against collusion and “restrictions on the abilities of the clubs, players and agents to conduct their free agent negotiations through use of the media."

The 2010 season is no exception to the rule that hindsight is 20-20. If we knew last winter what we do now, there's no way that players such as Chone Figgins would have signed for more than these ten players combined. No one on the list below signed for more than $3.5MM last winter, but all of these players went on to reward their teams with productive seasons:

• Matt Capps, $3.5MM – Capps has a 2.51 ERA with 41 total saves for the Nationals and Twins. 
• Darren Oliver, $3.5MM – The lefty has a 2.52 ERA with more than one strikeout per inning in 63 games for the Rangers.
• Takashi Saito, $3.2MM – Another bargain reliever, Saito has a 2.52 ERA with 11.6 K/9 in 55 games.
• Aubrey Huff, $3MM – Huff has hit .289/.382/.510 with 26 homers in San Francisco.
• J.J. Putz, $3MM – Putz has a 2.92 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning in 58 games.
• Miguel Olivo, $2.5MM – Olivo is batting .269/.314/.444 in 422 plate appearances so far in 2010.
• Kelly Johnson, $2.35MM – One year removed from a tough season in Atlanta, Johnson has 26 homers.
• John Buck, $2MM – Buck hit his 20th homer tonight and made the AL All-Star team.
• Russell Branyan, $2MM – Branyan was an absolute steal last year, but he was a bargain once again in 2010, hitting 25 total homers.
• Jim Thome, $1.5MM – Who saw this one coming? Thome has an OPS over 1.000 and 25 homers. Bill Smith and the Twins deserve a ton of credit for this signing.

Click here to check out some recent minor league deals that turned out well.

There are only 30 general manager jobs in baseball, but for every GM, there’s a qualified candidate to replace him. At SI.com, Jon Heyman lists 30 GM candidates, some of whom will likely be hired to run big league teams at some point.

Heyman’s list includes former GMs Josh Byrnes, Allard Baird, Jerry Dipoto, Ben Cherington, Wayne Krivsky, John Hart, Mike Port, Gerry Hunsicker, Joe Garagiola Jr., Sandy Alderson and Pat Gillick. 

Not all of those execs would necessarily want another GM job, but Heyman has many alternatives to consider. Rick Hahn (White Sox), Damon Oppenheimer (Yankees), Dan Jennings (Marlins), Kim Ng (Dodgers), David Forst (A’s), Thad Levine (Rangers), John Coppolella (Braves), Al Avila (Tigers), Bill Geivett (Rockies), Logan White (Dodgers), De Jon Watson (Dodgers), John Ricco (Mets), Mike Arbuckle (Royals), Charlie Kerfeld (Phillies), Jason McLeod (Padres), Mike Chernoff (Indians), Tom McNamara (Mariners), A.J. Preller (Rangers) and Peter Woodfork (Diamondbacks) are also candidates.

Only one week remains for the Elias Ranking landscape to be altered.  Many players appear locked in as Type A free agents.  If a Type A free agent turns down an arbitration offer from his old club, his new team has to surrender a draft pick as compensation.  MLBTR identified 21 Type As who could be offered arbitration.  The ultimate number on November 23rd will be smaller, but these are the candidates.  The player's specific number can be important, in cases where a team signs multiple Type As who turned down arbitration. 

• Jayson Werth – 92.118.  Werth will almost certainly be offered arbitration and will turn it down.  It will not matter if his new team signs multiple Type As who turned down arbitration – the Phillies will receive that team's best available draft pick.  At this time the best pick any team can hope for is the Tigers' 19th overall choice.
• Rafael Soriano – 91.522.  The Rays might prefer a cheaper closing option in 2011, but Soriano is very likely to turn down an arbitration offer this time around.
• Victor Martinez – 87.946.  He's looking for more than two years, so he won't be accepting arbitration.
• Cliff Lee – 87.547.  Could a team sign Lee as well as Martinez, Soriano, or Werth?  That'd be the Rangers' least-preferred scenario, assuming they don't re-sign Lee.
• Carl Crawford – 83.718.  Crawford is another lock to be offered and turn down arbitration, and the Rays have to hope he's not signed by a team that also signs one of the four players ranked above him.
• Adrian Beltre – 80.714.  Remember when Scott Boras' free agent crop didn't look that great?  He's got Werth and Beltre; will he add Yu Darvish?
• Vladimir Guerrero – 80.000.  The Rangers have a $9MM mutual option with Vlad.  These are rarely exercised by both sides, though it is possible. 
• Paul Konerko – 77.143.  Despite his monster season an arbitration for Konerko is no sure thing.  Through arbitration he could get a raise on this year's $12MM salary, and the White Sox might not want to risk that.
• Carl Pavano – 76.217.  Pavano figures to seek out a multiyear deal.  If he finds that elsewhere, a draft pick will be the added cost.
• Jorge de la Rosa – 76.144.  De La Rosa also seems likely to turn down arbitration in search of multiple years.
• Matt Guerrier – 75.978.  The Type A relievers are anyone's guess.  All of these guys know they're best served if an arbitration offer does not come.
• Scott Downs – 75.145.  The reported July asking price for Downs from the Blue Jays implied they're dead set on offering him arbitration.
• Adam Dunn – 75.000.  I don't see Dunn accepting an offer from the Nationals – he'll want multiyear security.  With so many Type As ranked higher, the Nationals could receive a second, third, or fourth-round pick as one of the two.
• Ramon Hernandez – 74.903.  The Reds hold the leverage here.  They know that if they offer arbitration they can have Hernandez back on a one-year deal or else stick him with the draft pick stink.
• Dan Wheeler – 73.696.  How likely is it for a player to have his option declined and then be offered arbitration?  The Rays did it with Gregg Zaun last year, resulting in supplemental first round pick Drew Vettleson.
• Frank Francisco – 73.551.  For many of these relievers, both the team and the player probably would have preferred Type B status.
• Jason Frasor – 73.442.
• Takashi Saito – 72.310.
• Arthur Rhodes – 72.217.
• Grant Balfour – 72.029.
• Pedro Feliciano – 70.213.
• There are other projected Type As, including Bronson Arroyo and Ted Lilly, but the players listed above I find more likely to receive arbitration offers.

On Thursday, ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that the players' union and MLB "reached an agreement to lengthen the offseason negotiating periods for free agents by moving up the annual filing, arbitration and tender dates, starting immediately after this season."  Today, MLBTR has learned the details, including the new 2010 deadlines.

• Instead of the typical 15-day free agent filing period following the World Series, it will be five days.
• Typically the deadline for a team to offer arbitration to its own free agents has been December 1st; it's now November 23rd.
• December 7th has been the deadline for free agents to accept or decline arbitration offers from their old teams; it's now November 30th.
• December 12th has been the non-tender deadline; it's now December 2nd.
• The above dates are confirmed.  On the unconfirmed side, there is word that the Rule 5 draft may be moved to November 20th.  The Rule 5 draft typically marks the end of the Winter Meetings, but that gathering takes place from December 6-9 this year in Lake Buena Vista, Florida.
• The goal here, according to Stark, is to lengthen the offseason free agent negotiating period, resulting in fewer unsigned players in February and March.