Uncategorized News & Rumors

Some links to tide you over during the game — or lack thereof, if you're facing the dreaded rain delay:

• Geoff Baker at the Seattle Times wonders if Josh Wilson will be DFA'd tomorrow to make way for Bill Hall.
• Brewers assistant GM Gord Ash weighs in on the Bill Hall trade, admitting that the move was partially financially motivated, reports Adam McCalvy at MLB.com.
• Tom Krasovic of Inside the Padres reports that the Padres are in serious talks with an unnamed, switch-hitting 16-year-old amateur for a bonus of $450k.
• Krasovic also notes that the White Sox taking on Jake Peavy's contract made it a whole lot easier for the Friars to foot the bill for their top picks Donavan Tate, Everett Williams and Keyvius Sampson.
• Dave Cameron at Fangraphs thinks the John Smoltz signing was a win for the Cardinals, saying that Smoltz's 40 inning sample size is far too small to judge his performance.
• Israel Gutierrez at the Miami Herald has a list of reasons why John Smoltz would have been a great fit on the Marlins.
• Royals GM Dayton Moore says he expected a backlash when the team demoted Alex Gordon and defends the decision, reports Bob Dutton at the Kansas City Star. The move came just a day before the deadline that would have set Gordon as a free agent after 2012, and now his free agency is delayed until past 2013.

There was a user here that stated roughly "If the closer is the highest-paid player on your team, you're not destined for great things." With that in mind, let's take a look at the highest-priced relievers in the game who were signed to specifically be closers.

Earlier in the decade, a free-agent closer earning $10MM per year looked fairly implausible, but it seems the dominance of players like Mariano Rivera and Eric Gagne made teams salivate at the thought of an unhittable late-game fireman. Since then, closers have become increasingly expensive and the results have been mixed. Let's look at what the top contracts have produced for teams, whether they're the highest contracts on the team or not:

• B.J. Ryan – Signed a five-year, $47MM contract in 2005. One brilliant season (2006), one good one (2008), one completely missed season (2007) and now out of a job with another year to go on his contract. The Blue Jays didn't make the playoffs.
• Joe Nathan – Signed a four-year, $47MM contract in 2008. He's been fantastic, putting up sub-2 ERAs and saving 68 games while blowing nine. But the Twins are five games back and look like they'll miss the playoffs this year, as they did last.
• Mariano Rivera – Signed a four-year, $40MM deal in 2001, a two-year, $21MM deal with vesting option in 2005 and a three-year, $45MM contract in 2008. Rivera has been exceptionally brilliant since he was given his big deal in '01, putting up five seasons of sub-2 ERA and 30-save seasons in all but one. Perhaps it's semi-notable that the Yankees haven't won a World Series since they first broke the bank on Rivera.
• Billy Wagner – Signed a four-year, $43MM deal in late 2005. Pitched magnificently for two and a half seasons until he was forced to have elbow surgery last season. Mets made NLCS in 2006.
• Francisco Rodriguez – Signed a three-year, $37MM deal w/$17.5MM option in 2008. Has been good but not great for the Mets this year, putting up a 3.35 ERA and 53/30 K/BB ratio in 51 IP. Mets aren't going to make the playoffs this year, but it can't really be traced to his performance.
• Francisco Cordero – Signed a four-year, $46MM deal in 2007. Cordero was good in 2008 and has been pretty great this season, posting a 1.79 ERA and 37/19 K/BB ratio. He's saved 59 games and blown only seven since last year, but the Reds continue to scuffle.
• Brian Fuentes – Signed a two-year, $17.5MM deal in 2008 with a vesting option for 2011. He's had a bumpy ride this season, but he's saved 32 games in 36 chances. Angels could be set for the playoffs.
• Brad Lidge – Signed a three-year, $37.5MM deal in 2008 w/Phillies. Has been erratic this year, posting a 7.29 ERA and 44/25 K/BB ratio and saving 21 of 28 games after a nearly flawless campaign last season. Phillies look committed to forge on with him, but will it cost them late in the season? We'll see.
• Kerry Wood – Signed a two-year, $20.5MM deal with vesting option for 2011 w/ Indians. Wood has been a frustrating sign, posting a 4.72 ERA and 45/19 K/BB ratio while saving 15 games and blowing five saves. Pretty big disappointment for the Indians, who were looking to contend this year and have now blown up their team.

So what can we learn from these? One prevailing trend is that the small-market teams (Blue Jays, Reds, Indians, Twins) have paid astronomical contracts to closers with few good results. While a closer may put up solid numbers here or there, the middling teams haven't seen their overall performance improve significantly, if at all, by the season's end. When a larger-market team invests, the player has usually rounded out an already robust squad–one with enough depth and cash to recover.

This conclusion has probably been made a few times, but there seems to be a correlation that shouldn't be ignored: Signing a high-priced closer long-term is likely to be an unwise move for a small-market team, as the risk of injury or sudden ineffectiveness is high. A closer isn't likely to be the piece to make a middling team a great one, and money would be well-spent on other resources.

Special thanks to Cot's Contracts.

Some more links as everyone reels from the bench-clearing madness:

• Count in Mets manager Jerry Manuel as a proponent of bringing back Gary Sheffield next year, says Bart Hubbuch at the New York Post. We learned earlier today Sheffield would prefer not to be traded.
• The Diamondbacks signed a couple notable draft picks today, reports Nick Piecoro at the Arizona Republic–no. 41 overall selection SS Chris Owings was given a $950k bonus, while 13th-round LHP Patrick Schuster was given an above-slot sum of $450k.
• Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi hasn't signed any of the team's first five selections, but "they will eventually sign," he believes, says MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.
• The Brewers signed fifth-rounder and two-sport athlete D'Vontrey Richardson, says Jim Callis at Baseball America, for a bonus of $400k.
• Callis also reports that the Giants have come to terms with fifth-rounder Matthew Graham to the tune of $500k.
• Anthony Castrovince at MLB.com says the Indians are "maintaining dialogue" with their top pick, Alex White.

If you're an MLBTR reader, you already know that Blue Jays outfielder Alex Rios has been claimed off waivers by a mystery team, although popular belief is that the White Sox are the ones who put the claim in. I think you already know where this is going… 

Pretend you're the one calling the shots in Toronto, what would you do? Would you save the $60MM or so and let the claiming club have him without getting anything in return, or would you trade him? Maybe you decide to hold on to him and try to compete next year or deal him over the winter when more teams can get involved. Whatever you think, tell us about it in the comments.

If you're unfamiliar with how waiver deals work, make sure you check out our primer. 

Earlier today, Ray Ratto at the San Francisco Chronicle decried Billy Beane's propensity to sign aging former stars to one-year deals, citing the recent release of Jason Giambi as another failed experiment:

With many players facing team budget crunches, there were no shortage of these types of deals this past offseason. Using Ratto's criteria of "35-plus hope-and-a-prayer guys," let's check out the performances of some of this past year's veteran one-year gambles, sticking specifically to hitters and starters who once flashed star-level success at the big league level, and deals with guaranteed major-league money:

HITTERS

• Jason Giambi – .193/.332/.365 in 328 plate appearances. Signed one-year, $5.25MM contract with club option for 2010 with A's. Released this week.
• Ken Griffey Jr. – .222/.322/.401 in 334 PA. Signed one-year, $2MM contract with Mariners.
• Bobby Abreu – .320/.416/.456 in 445 PA. Signed one-year, $5MM with Angels.
• Ivan Rodriguez – .245/.274/.384 in 318 PA. Signed one-year, $1.5MM with Astros.
• Nomar Garciaparra – .265/.300/.372 in 120 PA. Signed one-year, $1MM with A's.
• Garret Anderson – .289/.320/.435 in 338 PA. Signed one-year, $2.5MM with Braves.
• Cliff Floyd – .125/.176./.125 in 17 PA. Signed one-year, $750k with Padres.
• Jason Varitek – .225/.333/.432 in 336 PA. Signed one-year, $5MM with Red Sox.
• Orlando Cabrera – .289/.326/.384 in 476 PA. Signed one-year, $4MM with A's, now with the Twins.

STARTING PITCHERS

• Bartolo Colon – 4.19 ERA, 38/21 K/BB ratio in 62.1 innings. Signed one-year, $1MM deal with White Sox.
• John Smoltz – 8.32 ERA, 33/9 K/BB ratio in 40 innings, DFA'd this week. Signed one-year, $5.5MM-guaranteed deal with Red Sox.
• Mike Hampton – 5.19 ERA, 71/44 K/BB ratio in 105 innings. Signed one-year, $2MM with Astros.
• Tom Glavine – Did not play. Signed one-year, $1MM deal with Braves.
• Randy Johnson – 4.81 ERA, 80/31 K/BB ratio in 91.2 innings. Signed one-year, $8MM with Giants.

Hampton has had his moments and Anderson, Varitek and Cabrera have been passable, but it looks like the only real win from this group was Bobby Abreu, and he was probably less of a "gamble" in the sense that he had a fairly clean bill of health and success up to his signing. Gambling on veteran stars has been like playing roulette for many teams this season. Let me know if you think I missed anyone notable in the comments and we'll add them to the list.

According to the Oakland Tribune, the A's have signed RHP Brett Tomko to a minor-league deal. He'll be assigned to AAA Sacramento.

The 36-year-old Tomko was just released by the Yankees last week after posting a 5.23 ERA and 11/7 K/BB ratio in 20 innings. Lots of teams adding pitching depth today.

Jim Callis at Baseball America notes that 20 of 32 first-rounders remain unsigned, and the last one was almost a month ago. He's got some very helpful news to expand upon our update on unsigned draft picks from last night. Check out his post for more specifics on names, but here's a quick rundown:

• MLB seems very keen on their push to keep draft pick signings at their recommended slot price tags. They've gone so far as to essentially re-calculate the contract given to Jiovanni Mier, the only first-rounder signed above slot, by saying that a part of his bonus is deferred, thus making his bonus officially below slot.
• Stephen Strasburg will likely have to settle somewhere in between the record $10.5MM bonus awarded to Mark Prior and the $50MM figure Scott Boras has previously suggested.
• Five of the top high school players had "alarmed clubs" with high bonus demands, some likely due to the fallout of Rick Porcello's record-setting $7MM figure from '07.
• High-school arm Zack Wheeler didn't demand nearly as much as his peers, but still figures to sign above slot.
• Aaron Crow, Grant Green and Alex White, all once highly-touted as top-five talent, are seeking a payout more in line with such touting despite their mid-round draft spots.
• In general, high-schoolers have been asking for more slot money than their draft positions called for even last year, where slot recommendations were higher.

We'll see some deals in August and the trading process becomes a whole lot easier if players clear waivers (here's the full explanation). We'll keep a constantly-updated list of the players to clear waivers right here as the month progresses. We won't hear of all players who clear waivers, so there could be surprise trades, but as soon as we know a player clears waivers, we'll add him to the list.

Cardinals - Khalil Greene (source)

Nationals – Cristian Guzman (source)

Orioles – Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, Danys Baez (source) and Mark Hendrickson (source)

Reds – Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang (source) and Alex Gonzalez (source)

Red Sox – John Smoltz (source)

Yankees – Brian Bruney, Robinson Cano, Mark Melancon, David Robertson (source)

D'Backs – Jon Garland (source)

Brewers – Mike Cameron, Jason Kendall, Craig Counsell, Braden Looper (source)

There's a two-week window remaining for teams to sign their draft picks. Once August 17th passes without a negotiation, these players will be eligible for next year's draft and the selecting team receives a compensatory pick in next year's draft. For a full list of signees and terms, visit our handy 2009 Draft scorecard here.

1. Nationals – Stephen Strasburg. All eyes will be on these negotiations, as Strasburg is a Scott Boras client. The range for his bonus has varied wildly, and talks are said to not be close, according to ESPN. This one will go down to the wire, and the Nationals probably can't afford another Aaron Crow situation.
2. Mariners – Dustin Ackley. Ackley is a Boras client, and supposedly talks aren't close. He's reported to desire a bonus similar to the one Mark Teixeira received, which was $9.5MM.
3. Padres – Donavan Tate. Tate's a Boras client as well, and talks aren't close. He has a two-sport scholarship to UNC Chapel Hill.
6. Giants – Zack Wheeler. With the departure of Scott Barnes and Tim Alderson in trades, it'd make sense for the two sides to come to a deal.
7. Braves – Mike Minor. There is word that talks are progressing between the Braves and Minor, and his not signing has reportedly held up negotiations with the college pitchers below him, as his slot will likely determine their contract figures.
8. Reds – Mike Leake. He was recently named College Pitcher of the Year, and last we heard he's nearing a deal says Mark Sheldon at MLB.com.
9. Tigers – Jacob Turner. Scott Boras client whom Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus believes "sure to sign," perhaps for an above-slot deal around $5MM.
11. Rockies – Tyler Matzek. Matzek could be one of the hardest to sign, and supposedly he has already been assigned a dorm room at University of Oregon, where he's committed to play. The Rockies aren't believed to be able to reach Matzek's bonus demands.
12. Royals – Aaron Crow. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out, as Crow didn't come to terms with the Nationals last year. Chico Harlan at the Washington Post thinks he'll receive $1.5-$2MM.
13. A's – Grant Green. Another Boras client, likely to sign for above slot.
14. Rangers – Matt Purke. He's reportedly got high bonus demands, and some believe he's likely headed to school instead.
15. Indians – Alex White.
16. Diamondbacks – Bobby Borchering. Last we heard the two sides were in a "holding pattern."
18. Marlins – Chad James.
19. Cardinals – Shelby Miller. The Cardinals got $1.5MM from the A's for Matt Holliday, which would be well-spent on Miller, who could take the default title as their number one prospect.
20. Blue Jays – Chad Jenkins.
22. Twins – Kyle Gibson. Gibson was hurt recently, which in turn hurt his chances at an above-slot deal. Goldstein believes he was in line for double his $1.3MM slot, but now might settle somewhere in between.
27. Mariners – Nick Franklin.
29. Yankees – Slade Heathcott.
30. Rays – Levon Washington. Scott Boras client.

Jon Heyman of SI.com has the latest on a couple of free agents who don't appear on this list: Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd and Dodgers GM Ned Colletti. Both could be free agents after the year (Colletti has a mutual option) and either could be a candidate to become the permanent Nats GM. Heyman lists White Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn, Marlins exec Dan Jennings, Red Sox exec Jed Hoyer and Rays exec Gerry Hunsicker as other possible fits in Washington, along with acting GM Mike Rizzo.