Uncategorized News & Rumors

I recently posted this survey question:

Sometimes, information from Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA player projection system is used on MLBTR. Should we continue to post this information?

Over 2,000 MLBTR readers responded; about 90% said yes, continue using it.  The basic vibe of the comments was that more info can never hurt, even if we all acknowledge that a projection system isn’t gospel.

Many readers requested info explaining what PECOTA is and how it works.  Wikipedia does a very nice job giving the basics.  This is an oversimplification, but basically PECOTA projects a player’s future performance by looking at comparable players throughout baseball history.

How did PECOTA do trying to predict the 2007 season?  It led all projection systems with a .451 correlation coefficient for pitchers.  (A perfect set of predictions would have a coefficient of 1.0).  PECOTA also had the highest correlation coefficient in predicting hitters for ’07, at .627.  ZiPS, a free system from Baseball Think Factory, was close behind.  As you can see, pitcher performance is very difficult to project.

I’ll be on University of Maryland radio (WMUC) today at 3:10pm CST.  You can listen live here.

I had a small firm design the new MLBTR logo.  They presented about a dozen and I chose my favorite.  MLBTR readers were not terribly impressed by the new logo though.  I want to keep an open mind, because I am not an artistic guy.  I received several emails from people who thought they could do better.  One person, Mo Ahmadieh, revised the logo in a way I thought made it better.  Here is a look at that revision (click to enlarge).

I’ve decided to open this up and have a contest to design the best logo.  The prize is $100 plus your name/design company mentioned in a post.  Here’s what I’m looking for.

• It should be an original design – doesn’t have to look like the new blue logo or the current black and white one.
• It has to beat the logo shown in this post.  I may still go with this one; I like it.  In that case there would be no winner.
• Needs some kind of color.  I like the blue used for this one, but I am open to other colors.  Red, white, and blue together is not going to work though.
• Can’t use copyrighted photos (ie, MLB players).
• Needs a transparent background.
• Needs to have the full tagline.
• Size: 800×110 pixels.
• Email your entry to mlbtraderumors2008@gmail.com and enter as many as you’d like.  Please get them in by end of day Friday.  This should be fun.

Brian Roberts‘ name came up often in our recent reader survey.  It’s a love/hate thing – people either want more Roberts updates or none at all.

The Roberts frustration is not unlike our experiences with Erik Bedard and Johan Santana earlier this winter.  Readers were happy to see those deals finalized; they dragged too long and many of the news items weren’t interesting. 

One thing I can’t do is stop posting updates on the Roberts trade or any other predominant hot stove story.  This site exists to provide the latest trade and signing news.  If you’re sick of a certain deal it should be easy to glance at the headline and scroll right past it.

Thank you for reading MLBTradeRumors.com.  I’ve created a brief six-question anonymous survey.  I would appreciate it if you would take a couple of minutes to fill this out, as your feedback is incredibly valuable.  Thanks.

Here’s a link to the latest installment of MLB Roundup, hosted by Stephanie Rosa.  Topics this week are the Japan opener, velocity and pitch type data now at FanGraphs, and Jeff Ma in Tout Wars.  I’m not in this episode, but maybe next week.

Speaking of which, hit me up with your hot stove questions at mlbtraderumors2008@gmail.com for next week’s video mailbag.

Aside from my own websites, I’ve been a regular contributor of fantasy baseball columns for RotoWorld over the past few years.

This year, I have joined forces with them for their Draft Guide, contributing a ton of articles and analysis.  At just $14.99, this is hands down the best way to spend your fantasy baseball dollar.  I know, because I’ve tried practically every $8 magazine and online service out there over the years.  Those magazines go to press in early December – they’re mostly useless.

Projections, cheatsheets, player comments, AL/NL-only values, custom scoring, updates, feature articles, closer info, mock drafts, sleepers, busts….need I go on?  The 2008 RotoWorld Draft Guide has it all.  Hundreds of MLBTR readers have already purchased the RotoWorld Guide, and the response has been overwhelmingly positive.

Guest article by David Chase of Brock for Broglio.

1. Skill Set
With more teams holding 12 pitchers instead of the traditional 11, those last 21-25 spots are increasingly vital. Specialists, who excel in one area (e.g., vs. LHP/RHP, defense, or speed) are more valuable than a player who might be just-ok in all aspects of the game.
2. Age
Players with good minor league track records, (pre age 26) will usually receive a “longer look” than veterans on the wrong side of the age curve. The prospective upside, and the value of cost-control, far outweighs the risk of underperformance; especially for teams with little chance at competing. Apparently, Sabean hasn’t gotten the memo yet.
3. Track Record
Often, fans overreact to down years. Most batting statistics don’t become reliable until 500 plate appearances. If a players on the right side of the age curve, and is relatively healthy, down years are usually only a product of luck. Don’t be surprised when your front office continues to give a player opportunity, at the expense of a utility player, who might’ve excelled in said players absence.
4. Observational Analysis
It’s not always about the statistics. Some players have talent that hasn’t materialized into production. Teams will continue to give raw athletes–whose tools rate well on their scout’s 20-80 scales–chances to succeed. The best organizations are those that are aware of the strengths and weaknesses of both evaluation methodologies, and integrate them seamlessly.
5. Service Time
Miguel Cabrera is likely to break the $200MM barrier; he earned a major league contract as soon as he deserved one. Other players are often not as lucky. There’s not much incentive for an organization to rush its prospects through the minor leagues. Being held down one additional year too many, can literally cost a player several guaranteed years and many millions.
6. Organizations Direction
It’s important for organizations to take a frank stance on whether or not they believe they can compete. Being lukewarm is far too costly. Opportunity is valuable; wasting it on expensive veterans that have no future is counterproductive. Successful minor leaguers–who’ve been neglected of opportunity–become valuable assets to teams not presently competing.
7. Risk Management
Developing major league prospects is a risky proposition; especially when those prospects can be traded for proven commodity. This ties in with #6; an average market team—that can compete–is wise to shed itself of its prospects and their inherit risk. Prospects have far more value to a team in a rebuilding cycle, which have no choice but to carry the burden of that risk.
8. It’s Not Always the GM
Sometimes a GM is merely a public figure for a decision they have no control over, or influence on. I read an article about a general manager who consistently refused to speak to a player’s agent out of lack of interest. The ambitious agent contacted the owner directly, and a deal was struck without the GMs consent.  I wouldn’t be surprised if these types of scenarios are prevalent.
The pressure of instant success–from the group cutting the checks–can also influence the GM’s better judgment, and as a by-product; suppress the long term viability of the franchise.
9. Intangibles Matter
In an age where there’s seemingly less of a market for unquantifiable skill sets, devoted ballplayers, club house leaders, and hard workers still find themselves on 25 man rosters. Next time you wonder why Nick Punto is still employed; think of the intangibles he might bring to the table. Mike Sweeney is on the verge of a major league contract for no other reason.

Buying out the arbitration years of young starting pitchers has become a trend in recent years.  These are usually very team-friendly deals, often with option years for the last year of arb eligibility and the first of free agency.  We’ve seen Chris Young, Matt Cain, James Shields, Noah Lowry, and Ian Snell opt for security rather than maximize their year-to-year earnings.  Which young starters might be next for an extension?

• Rich Hill – The 28 year-old southpaw will hit arbitration before the 2010 season.  He posted a 3.92 ERA in his first full season in ’07 and has tossed 318 career innings.  I haven’t read anything about the Cubs considering signing him to an extension.
• Felix Hernandez – The Ms have already made an offer to Felix, who turns 22 in April.  He’s already thrown 465 innings in his career.
• Fausto Carmona – The 24 year-old has 289 career innings, posting a stellar first full year in ’07.
• Scott Kazmir – The 24 year-old only has two arb years left, and it looks like both parties may prefer going year to year.  He’s logged 570 innings already.
• Adam Wainwright – The 26 year-old is arb-eligible after this season, and I expect the Cards to look into an extension for him.  He’s thrown 279 innings.
• Tom Gorzelanny – Gorzelanny, 25, has 269 career innings.  Another solid healthy season and I imagine the Bucs might offer him a deal similar to Snell’s.
• John Maine – Preliminary extension talks have begun with Maine, who’s arb-eligible after this season.  He turns 27 in May and has 324 career innings.
• Cole Hamels – The 24 year-old southpaw has 315 career innings.  He called his recent renewal a "low blow," but won’t make a million bucks in ’09 either.
• Jered Weaver – The 25 year-old probable Opening Day starter has logged 284 innings.  A big year could lead to talks.
• Some other young starters who could get long-term deals with strong ’08 seasons: Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Bannister, Wandy Rodriguez, Dustin McGowan, Tim Lincecum, Chad Billingsley, Zack Greinke, Kyle Kendrick, Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza, and Phil Hughes.

Matt Birt checking in for the afternoon to cover all your trade rumor needs.  Hopefully you’re prepping your kegs and eggs for tomorrow’s St. Patrick’s Day festivities.  Unfortunately, tomorrow morning I will be talking all things Catch-22 with a bunch of seventeen and eighteen year-olds, when I’d like nothing more than to celebrate with my family and pals.  Such is life.

While I cover rumors, I’ll be listening to Edinson Volquez dominate the Phillies (I’m liking that trade more and more), and dreaming of the day the Reds run out a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, and Bailey.  Please feel free to email me with any rumors that cross your path.

Posted by Matt Birt