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Dodgers To Place Teoscar Hernandez On Injured List

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3:36pm: Manager Dave Roberts tells the Dodgers beat that Hernandez is dealing with a Grade 1 adductor strain and that there’s no timetable for a return but Hernandez will be “inactive for awhile.”

3:29pm: The Dodgers announced Hernandez has been placed on the 10-day IL. Outman has indeed been recalled from Oklahoma City to take his spot on the active roster.

3:04pm: The Dodgers will place outfielder Teoscar Hernandez on the 10-day injured list, reports Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. The team has yet to formally announce the move or a corresponding transaction, but as first noted by Jack Harris of the L.A. Times, James Outman traveled to meet the team in Miami.

Hernandez exited yesterday’s game with tightness in his left hamstring, the Dodgers announced last night. He went for an MRI to determine the severity of his ailment. The results of that imaging still aren’t clear, nor is a potential timetable for Hernandez’s return, but the team clearly saw enough damage to sit the 32-year-old slugger down for the next 10 days.

Though the 24-11 Dodgers currently hold the best record in baseball (by a margin of half a game over the second-place Padres), their outfield production has been more good than great on the whole. Hernandez has been the best of the bunch, slashing an excellent .315/.333/.600 with nine homers. Andy Pages has been strong as well, with a .277/.347/.491 output in regular playing time. The rest of L.A.’s outfield play has been suspect. Free agent acquisition Michael Conforto is out to a woeful .146/.285/.243 start. Neither Chris Taylor nor Tommy Edman has hit well during limited playing time in the outfield. Edman’s broader .252/.295/.523 slash is still quite solid overall, but he’s also on the 10-day injured list due to an ankle issue.

Edman might’ve been the top choice to fill in for Hernandez were he healthy, but the Dodgers will instead give more looks to Outman now — particularly against right-handed pitchers, given his notable career platoon splits. The 28-year-old Outman had a nice debut showing back in 2022 but has struggled mightily in the majors since that time, due in large part to a sky-high 33% strikeout rate in his career. He’s hitting .254/.322/.508 in Triple-A right now, but that’s coupled with a grim 36.3% strikeout rate in 146 plate appearances.

The Dodgers have also scarcely played Enrique Hernandez in the outfield this year, but he’s certainly no stranger to playing there and would make for a natural righty complement in a platoon setup. Taylor would be an on-paper fit as a fellow righty with outfield experience, but he hasn’t hit at all dating back to 2024 and has actually been even less effective against lefties than he has righties.

Dodgers, White Sox Previously Discussed Luis Robert Jr. Trade

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The Dodgers and White Sox previously engaged in trade talks that would’ve sent center fielder Luis Robert Jr. to Los Angeles in exchange for outfielder James Outman and an unnamed “front-line prospect,” according to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Nightengale notably adds that talks between the sides have been tabled at present, however, and it’s unclear whether these discussions occurred recently or at some point during this past offseason.

That the Dodgers would have interest in Robert is fairly unsurprising. The center fielder was among the most obvious trade candidates of the offseason with Chicago coming off the worst season in MLB history. Robert himself was part of that brutal campaign, as he was limited to just 100 games by injuries and did not perform up to expectations even when healthy with a .224/.278/.379 slash line (84 wRC+). While he stole 23 bases and slugged 14 homers during that time, he was held back by a 33.2% strikeout rate, the highest of his career.

That’s not much of a platform season to market to potential suitors. Between that and the $17MM guaranteed to Robert this season between his $15MM salary and the $2MM buyout of a $20MM team option for 2026, it’s hardly a surprise that the White Sox weren’t able to find the right value for their franchise center fielder. Despite his weak 2024 campaign, however, he did garner interest from clubs like the Reds and Giants this winter. It’s not hard to see why, given that Robert is not too far removed from a 2023 campaign that saw him make his first career All-Star team, finish 12th in AL MVP voting, and win the Silver Slugger award in center field. In 145 games that year, he posted a 128 wRC+, slugged 38 homers, swiped 20 bags, and posted a 5-win campaign (4.9 fWAR, 5.3 bWAR).

That tantalizing upside appears to have intrigued the Dodgers as well. It was reported back in December that Robert was among a number of possible alternatives to Teoscar Hernandez that L.A. was weighing a pursuit of if they were unable to bring the slugger back into the fold via free agency, though that thought experiment ultimately went nowhere when Hernandez re-signed with the club shortly thereafter. Even after bringing Hernandez into the fold, however, adding Robert could make at least some sense for the Dodgers. With Robert installed in center field, L.A. would be much less reliant on Miguel Rojas (and, eventually, Hyeseong Kim) at second base and could instead install switch-hitter Tommy Edman at the position. A stronger defender on the infield like Edman could help Mookie Betts improve as he works on learning shortstop, or could even provide the Dodgers with the ability to begin using Edman at short and Betts at the keystone if the experiment of playing Betts at the most valuable defensive position on the diamond does not work out.

Between the additional flexibility Robert would provide the Dodgers in how they deploy Edman and his previous heights as a star player, it’s not hard to see why the club would have some level of interest in him. The discussions reported by Nightengale suggest that Outman would be a key part of the return, which could make plenty of sense for both sides. Outman, 28 next month, finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2023 with an excellent debut season where he hit .248/.353/.437 (118 wRC+) as Los Angeles’s regular center fielder. Unfortunately, his sophomore season did not go nearly as well as he struck out in 35.3% of his plate appearances, posted a wRC+ of just 54, and was below replacement level in 53 games.

In some regards, Outman is a somewhat similar player to Robert, albeit with a far lower ceiling. Outman currently isn’t slated to hit free agency until after the 2030 season, which could also be attractive to the rebuilding White Sox. He evidently wouldn’t have been the only piece Chicago received had the trade been consummated, though it’s unclear whether the “front-line” prospect involved would be a top-100 type talent like southpaw Jackson Ferris or shortstop Alex Freeland or perhaps a less flashy name like righty Nick Frasso or outfielder Kendall George. What the hypothetical trade would have ended up looking like, it’s clear the sides aren’t currently discussing a deal at this point. Perhaps they could circle back and reignite talks closer to the trade deadline, when Robert is sure to be on the market ahead of the final guaranteed year of his contract.

Dodgers Place Brusdar Graterol On IL With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain

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6:57pm: As relayed by MLB.com’s Juan Toribio, Roberts corrected himself this evening about Graterol’s injury, noting that the right-hander had suffered a Grade 1 hamstring strain. A Grade 1 hamstring strain is the most mild form of strain, while a Grade 3 strain constitutes a complete tear of the hamstring. This is, of course, excellent news for Dodgers fans and Roberts went on to suggest that the club “remains hopeful” that the righty can return at some point this season.

5:22pm: The Dodgers announced Graterol’s placement on the injured list this evening and activated Grove to take his roster spot as expected. The club also announced that shortstop Miguel Rojas was being activated from the injured list and optioned outfielder James Outman to make room for him on the active roster.

8:40am: Dodgers right-hander Brusdar Graterol was removed from last night’s game in obvious pain and the club announced that he has a right hamstring strain. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters after the game that the strain was the Grade 3 variety, the most severe type. Roberts stopped short of saying that Graterol is officially done for the year but it seems likely that will be the case. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Alden González of ESPN were among those to report on the details.

It’s a brutal blow for Graterol personally, as he has already missed the majority of the season. He was sidelined in the spring due to hip tightness and inflammation in his throwing shoulder and began the season on the injured list due to the shoulder issue. The shoulder inflammation lingered long enough that he stayed on the IL until Monday. Last night was his first major league appearance of the year, which lasted eight pitches before he hurt himself. Now it seems likely that those eight pitches will be the totality of his major league work for the 2024 season.

For a frame of reference, the Royals put outfielder Kyle Isbel on the IL on May 5 of last year with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and estimated his recovery timeline to be about six weeks. He was reinstated on June 27, just over seven weeks later. Every injury is a unique situation but it seems fair to expect a longer timeline than that, given that Graterol’s strain is a higher grade. There’s just over six weeks left in the regular season now, so the circumstances seem to be pointing to Graterol being done for the year. Perhaps he can make a quick recovery and be a factor in October if the Dodgers make a long postseason run, but even in that scenario, he would have to convince the club that he’s healthy enough to be an upgrade over someone else already on the roster.

It’s a loss for the Dodger bullpen, as Graterol has been a mainstay of their relief corps prior to this year. He made 171 appearances for the club over the 2020 to 2023 seasons with a 2.69 earned run average. His 18.9% strikeout rate in that time was subpar but he limited walks to a 5.5% rate and got hitters to pound the ball into the ground at a massive 62.5% clip. He was able to earn enough of Roberts’ trust to rack up 11 saves and 38 holds.

The Dodgers already have relievers Ryan Brasier, Connor Brogdon, Blake Treinen and Michael Grove on the injured list. Graterol will be joining that group though Grove is likely to be reinstated to take his roster spot, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times on X. The relief corps has a collective 3.61 ERA that places them fifth in the league, so they should be an effective group even without Graterol, but it’s still not ideal when a serviceable arm goes down like this.

Graterol reached Super Two status after the 2022 season and is therefore in his second of four arbitration seasons. He made $1.225MM last year and is making $2.7MM here in 2024. With this season being almost a total wash, he’ll likely be in line for a similar salary in 2025. He would also be eligible for arbitration going into 2026 and is slated for free agency after that season.

NL West Injury Notes: Heyward, Outman, Campusano, Marte

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The Dodgers placed Jason Heyward on the 10-day injured list prior to yesterday’s game, as an MRI revealed that the veteran outfielder is dealing with a left knee bone bruise.  Manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times) that no structural damage was found in Heyward’s knee, so the IL stint might not be too lengthy.  This is the second IL visit of the season for Heyward, who already missed about six weeks due to back tightness.  Heyward has hit .203/.299/.398 over 137 plate appearances, which translates to exactly league-average (100 wRC+) offense while almost exclusively facing right-handed pitching, plus Heyward has contributed his usual strong defense as a regular right fielder and part-time center fielder.

James Outman was called up from Triple-A to take Heyward’s spot on the roster and his overall role in the Los Angeles outfield mix.  After finishing third in NL Rookie of the Year voting last season, Outman got off to such a cold start (.516 OPS in 124 PA) that the Dodgers optioned him to Triple-A in mid-May.  With the caveat that the Pacific Coast League is very hitter-friendly, Outman has hit .279/.393/.531 with nine homers in 179 PA with Triple-A Oklahoma City, providing some hope that he has gotten himself back on track.  A resurgent Outman would be a big boost for the Dodgers, and if Outman is productive and Heyward doesn’t miss much time, this internal help might factor into whatever plans the club has about adding outfield help at the deadline.

More health news from around the NL West…

  • The Padres activated catcher Luis Campusano from the 10-day IL prior to yesterday’s game, and optioned infielder Eguy Rosario to Triple-A in the corresponding move.  A left thumb contusion sent Campusano to the IL on June 21, and as expected at the time of the placement, Campusano didn’t miss much beyond the 10-day minimum.  The catcher has hit an underwhelming .234/.282/.371 over 220 PA and defensive metrics have painted a rough picture of his glovework, even though Campusano remains in line for the majority of playing time over Kyle Higashioka.
  • Ketel Marte is day-to-day with back tightness, as the Diamondbacks announced after the second baseman made an early exit from yesterday’s 10-8 loss to the Padres.  Manager Torey Lovullo explained to reporters (including MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert) that Marte has been bothered by his back for a few days, and still played eight innings on Friday before requiring a pinch-hitter in the ninth.  The 43-45 D’Backs can only hope that Marte’s back problem doesn’t continue to linger, as the star second baseman has been a big reason why Arizona continues to linger in the wild card race.  Marte is hitting .284/.353/.506 with 17 home runs over 380 PA, and while fans recognized this performance by voting Marte into the NL’s starting lineup for the All-Star Game, this back problem might also raise concerns that he could miss the Midsummer Classic.

Dodgers Place Max Muncy On Injured List, Option James Outman

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The Dodgers made a series of roster moves today, activating outfielder Jason Heyward from the injured list while recalling outfielder Miguel Vargas and right-hander Ricky Vanasco. To open roster spots for that group, they placed third baseman Max Muncy on the 10-day injured list with a right oblique strain and optioned outfielder James Outman and left-hander Nick Ramirez.

Prior to the official announcement, Francys Romero reported on X that Vargas would be called up. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic was among those to relay on X that Outman no longer had a locker with the club.

While oblique strains typically lead to absences of multiple weeks, the Dodgers don’t seem especially concerned. Manager Dave Roberts told the team’s beat (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic) that it’s a mild strain. The club is hopeful he’ll only require a minimal stint. Muncy is out to his typical start to the season: drawing plenty of walks and hitting for power to compensate for a low batting average. Through 167 plate appearances, he has a .223/.323/.475 line with nine homers.

Muncy has gotten the start at third base for 36 of L.A.’s 46 games. Enrique Hernández is in the lineup tonight against Cincinnati right-hander Frankie Montas. Roberts told reporters that Hernández and Miguel Rojas will take the third base work while Muncy is out.

Heyward draws back into the lineup after missing six weeks with a back issue. The veteran should be in the lineup in right field against right-handed pitching. That bumps rookie Andy Pages from right field to center field, while Teoscar Hernández will be in one of the corners on an everyday basis. The Dodgers shield Heyward from left-handed pitching. Roberts said one of Vargas or Chris Taylor will be in left field against southpaws, pushing Hernández to right and Heyward to the bench.

The outfield shuffling sends Outman to the minors for the first time since 2022. The 27-year-old finished third in NL Rookie of the Year balloting last season, hitting 23 homers with a .248/.353/.437 slash line. His offensive production has plummeted this season. Outman has been one of the least productive hitters in MLB, turning in a .147/.250/.266 mark. He has fanned in more than 32% of his plate appearances and hasn’t made the same level of power impact he did last season.

Outman will try to get on track at Triple-A Oklahoma City to put himself back on the radar for an MLB call. He’ll need to do so quickly to stay on pace to reach free agency after the 2028 season. Outman entered the season with one year and six days of MLB service. A service year is tallied at 172 days, so he needs to spend at least 166 days on the MLB roster to surpass the two-year threshold in 2024. If he spends more than a couple weeks in Triple-A, he’ll fall short of that mark.

Corbin Carroll Wins National League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll has won the National League Rookie of the Year award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Mets right-hander Kodai Senga came in second while Dodgers outfielder James Outman placed third.

Carroll was selected to Arizona’s roster in late August of last year, allowing him to get a taste of the majors but without exhausting his rookie status. He fared extremely well in that audition, hitting .260/.330/.500 in his first 115 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 131, indicating he was 31% better than the league average hitter in that time. The D’Backs felt confident enough in Carroll based on that showing, and his work as a minor leaguer, to give him an eight-year extension with a guarantee of $111MM.

They were hoping he would be an integral part of the club and help them make the postseason for the first time since 2017. He went on to have an incredible showing in his first full season in the majors, hitting 25 home runs and stealing 54 bases. His .285/.362/.506 line led to a 131 wRC+ and he also got strong grades for his outfield defense. He produced 6.0 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs while Baseball Reference had him at 5.4. The club did indeed break their postseason drought, snagging a Wild Card spot and eventually going all the way to the World Series.

While the award is surely thrilling for Carroll and the Snakes on its own, there are other implications of Carroll taking the trophy. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Carroll, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #2 prospect on all three of those lists. Gunnar Henderson, who got the AL trophy today, was #1.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Carroll did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the Diamondbacks, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Senga also had a strong season, his first after coming over from Japan. He made 29 starts for the Mets with a 2.98 earned run average, 29.1% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. Players considered by MLB to be foreign professionals, as Senga is, aren’t eligible to earn PPI picks for their clubs. Outman also had a solid campaign, hitting 23 home runs and stealing 16 bases. He struck out in 31.9% of his plate appearances but offset that somewhat by walking at a 12% clip. His .248/.353/.437 batting line led to a wRC+ of 118 and he also graded out well in the field. He wasn’t considered a top 100 prospect coming into the year and wouldn’t have qualified for a PPI pick even if he surpassed Senga for second place.

The voting was unanimous, per the vote tally at BBWAA, with Carroll getting all 30 first-place votes. Senga got 22 second-place votes and Outman got five. Other players getting votes were Nolan Jones of the Rockies, Eury Pérez of the Marlins, Patrick Bailey of the Giants and three Reds: Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

James Outman, Breakout Man

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As a fan of dad joke-level wordplay, I was tempted to title this post “James Outman Came Outta Nowhere,” except that wasn’t really the case.  The Athletic’s Keith Law had Outman on his list (in 89th) of the 100 best prospects in baseball heading into the 2023 season, the outfielder tore up minor league pitching in 2021-22, and Outman even had a 1.409 OPS over the very small sample size of the 16 plate appearances he received with the Dodgers in 2022.  That put Outman in good stead to win a spot on Los Angeles’ Opening Day roster, and he indeed secured his place with a big Spring Training.

From there, it isn’t a stretch to call Outman one of the Dodgers’ most valuable players of 2023.  In fact, Outman and Will Smith tied for third on the club with 4.4 fWAR, as only NL MVP candidates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman has more fWAR among all Dodgers position players.

The season had its share of ups and downs for Outman, as his hot start in April was followed up by a .551 OPS over 166 plate appearances in May and June.  Just when it looked like Outman might’ve just been a flash in the pan, his bat steadied once more, and he posted an .852 OPS over 292 PA over the remainder of the regular season.  It all added up to a .248/.353/.437 slash line and 23 home runs, which translated to a 118 wRC+.  Beyond the offense, Outman was also a stellar center field defender in the view of the Outs Above Average metric (+9), and the UZR/150 (+1.8) and Defensive Runs Saved (+1) metrics at least had his glovework slightly above average.

This defensive performance ended up being particularly important given how center field might’ve otherwise been a big problem area for Los Angeles.  With Cody Bellinger gone to the Cubs in free agency, the Dodgers went into 2023 prepared to give Trayce Thompson a big chunk of center field time, as Thompson unexpectedly hit very well after coming to L.A. in 2022.  Thompson was slated for the majority of playing time up the middle, with a pair of left-handed bats (Outman and veteran minor league signing Jason Heyward) in position as complements for platoon purposes.

Unfortunately for Thompson, everything went downhill after a three-homer performance in his first game of the season.  Thompson struggled badly over the first two months and then missed two more months on the 60-day injured list due to an oblique strain before he was included in the trade package that brought Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox prior to the trade deadline.  Heyward was having a nice comeback year but had an increased amount of playing time in right field, as Mookie Betts was needed at second base and shortstop due to injuries in the Dodgers’ middle infield.

That left center field for Outman, who rose to the occasion.  Heyward, Chris Taylor, Jonny Deluca, and deadline pickup Enrique Hernandez chipped in for playing time, but by and large, Outman was the Dodgers’ everyday center fielder.  This looks to be the case heading into 2024 as well, even though the 26-year-old has some flaws to correct in his game.

The .343 BABIP could indicate some natural regression is in order, even if Outman has a lot of speed and can challenge for hits even on weak-ish contact.  This baserunning skill came in handy since Outman’s hard-contact numbers were nothing special — a 39.9% total that ranked in the 44th percentile of all hitters, even if his strong barrel and sweet-spot rates generated some power.  The bigger issues were a 31.9% strikeout rate that was among the worst in the league, and an overall lack of production against left-handed pitching.  Outman had just a .665 OPS over 154 PA against southpaws, compared to an .836 PA against righties.

These splits and the high strikeout totals also troubled Outman in the upper minors, and even Law’s positive scouting report praised Outman’s other tools but noted that “there’s too much swing and miss in the zone here to say he’ll be more than an average hitter.”  The obvious volatility within Outman’s numbers might make him a candidate for a sophomore slump, now that opposing teams have more of a book on him and know to keep throwing him breaking balls.

On the other hand, Outman could be partially shielded simply by becoming a bit more of a platoon player.  He’d still get the bulk of at-bats as the left-handed side of a center field platoon, but having a righty-swinger to split time would help Outman avoid southpaws.  As to who that right-handed center fielder might be, Taylor, Deluca, and Andy Pages are in the mix, even if Deluca might be the only real center field option of that group from a defensive standpoint.  Hernandez is a free agent and a candidate to be re-signed.  Betts might even factor in for the occasional cameo in center field, even if the Dodgers would ideally like to see Betts mostly back in his normal right field spot, and the middle infield shored up by a healthy Gavin Lux and perhaps a new acquisition to join veteran Miguel Rojas.

The Dodgers have enough pressing offseason needs that a platoon center fielder is relatively down their list of priorities, not to mention the fact that left field is a bigger question mark in the outfield alone.  That said, Outman’s emergence provides some major relief for Los Angeles, and gives hope that despite all the middle infield issues, the Dodgers can at least get some strength up the middle with a solid center field option.

The Dodgers’ Youth Movement Is Showing Positive Results

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The Dodgers are coming off a relatively modest offseason by their standards, giving out a few one-year deals to free agents and making some small trades. It seems that may have been partially motivated by a desire to get under the luxury tax, though that plan effectively went out the window when Trevor Bauer’s suspension was reduced and some of his salary was put back on their books. Leaving the financials aside, there was another argument for the light touch in the winter. They had a crop of young players who seemed ready for some big league looks, having six players on Baseball America’s top 100 list coming into the year (Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone) despite ten consecutive postseason berths.

What results have been produced in the first six weeks of the season? Let’s take a look.

James Outman

Remarkably, the young player who has stood out the most so far at the big league level is Outman, who wasn’t even one of the six Dodgers on the Baseball America top 100. BA actually ranked him the 10th best prospect in the system coming into the year. In fact, there’s been a wide gap in the evaluations on Outman throughout the industry on account of his incredible athleticism but huge strikeout concerns. Keith Law of The Athletic was bullish enough to rank Outman #89 in the league, but Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs had him down at #26 in the Dodgers’ system.

Outman, 26 years old this weekend, made the club’s Opening Day roster and is showing both the positive and negative sides of his game so far. He’s struck out in 32.7% of his plate appearances, currently the seventh-highest among all qualified hitters in the majors. But despite those punchouts, he’s hit eight home runs in 38 games and is batting .281/.374/.578 overall for a wRC+ of 158. He won’t be able to maintain a .389 batting average on balls in play all year, but he is hitting the ball with some authority when he does make contact. His average exit velocity is in the 54th percentile among qualified hitters, maximum exit velocity 73rd, hard-hit rate 71st and barrel rate 84th.

In addition to that, he’s also stolen four bases and seems to be a capable defender in the outfield, where he’s spent most of his time in center. Defensive Runs Saved has him just below average at -1, whereas he’s at +3 Outs Above Average and has a 2.0 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Miguel Vargas

Vargas, 23, made his major league debut last year but hit just .170/.200/.255 in his first 50 plate appearances. Nonetheless, the club seemed to head into this year with the plan being for him to take over second base while Gavin Lux slid over to shortstop, though Lux eventually suffered a season-ending injury and was replaced by Miguel Rojas.

The club’s confidence in Vargas seems to be paying off so far. He’s walked in 14.6% of his plate appearances while striking out at just a 19% clip. He’s launched four home runs and his .219/.338/.430 batting line amounts to a 113 wRC+. That’s despite a .247 BABIP that’s well below this year’s .297 league average. His Statcast metrics aren’t quite as strong as Outman’s, but it still seems like luck-based regression should work in his favor, given his .265 xBA.

The defensive picture is a little less rosy, however, as he has negative grades from all three of DRS, UZR and OAA so far. That’s not terribly shocking since he was primarily a third baseman in the minors and his experience at the keystone is minimal. Perhaps his glovework at second will improve with more reps, but the club might also consider a position change in the future.

Michael Busch

Busch, 25, was added to the club’s roster almost three weeks ago but has received only scattered playing time so far, 23 plate appearances in seven games. He’s hit just .211/.348/.211 in that time while striking out at a 39.1% clip. In 606 Triple-A appearances, he’s slashed .277/.363/.484 for a wRC+ of 109 with a much more palatable 24.8% strikeout rate.

Michael Grove/Ryan Pepiot/Gavin Stone/Bobby Miller

These four pitchers are all touted prospects to varying degrees and have either made their major league debuts or are getting close, though none of them has been able to make significant contributions just yet.

Grove, 26, has perhaps the lowest prospect stock of the bunch, as he was considered the club’s #18 prospect by BA and #12 by FanGraphs coming into the year. He’s made 11 appearances at the major league level between last year and this year but has a 5.96 ERA and modest 18.3% strikeout rate. He’s been on the injured list for the past three weeks due to a groin strain.

Pepiot, 25, made nine appearances for the club last year with a 3.47 ERA. He was expected to take an Opening Day rotation spot when Tony Gonsolin was injured, but then Pepiot suffered an oblique strain, which allowed Grove to take that spot. Pepiot was eventually transferred to the 60-day injured list, meaning he won’t be eligible to rejoin the big league club until the end of May at the earliest.

Stone, 24, was selected to the roster just over a week ago and had one rough spot start before getting optioned back to down to the minors. But in 13 Triple-A starts between last year and this year, he has a 2.87 ERA, 29.2% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate.

Miller, 24, is not yet on the 40-man roster and isn’t off to a great start this year. In 2022, between Double-A and Triple-A, he had a 4.25 ERA in 112 1/3 innings. He struck out 30.9% of opponents in that time against a 7.9% walk rate. But this year, he was slowed by shoulder soreness in spring and didn’t debut until recently. He’s pitched just five innings over two Triple-A outings, with a 7.20 ERA in that minuscule sample.

Future Options

Diego Cartaya is considered by many to be the club’s best prospect, though he’s not as close as some of the others. The 21-year-old catcher is on the 40-man roster but just reached Double-A for the first time this year and has limped out to a .186/.253/.314 batting line through his first 79 plate appearances at that level. With Will Smith and Austin Barnes holding down the big league jobs, there’s little reason for the club to rush Cartaya.

Andy Pages, 22, didn’t make BA’s top 100 list, but FanGraphs had him all the way up at #58. Like Cartaya, the outfielder is on the 40-man roster but is down in Double-A. Unlike Cartaya, he’s off to a roaring start there, hitting .281/.429/.490 for a wRC+ of 141 through 126 plate appearances this year.

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After a middling start to the 2023 season, the Dodgers have surged forward in recent weeks are now 23-15, taking the top spot in the National League West. They may not be quite as dominant as some other recent seasons, but there’s still plenty going right for them. At least part of that is due to the contributions of Outman and Vargas, who have stepped into everyday roles and are doing well. The pitching is still a work in progress due to various injuries throughout that mix, so they’ll need a bit more time for things to come into focus there.

Since they had a fairly limited offseason coming into this year, the Dodgers currently have about $82MM committed to the 2024 team, per Roster Resource. That doesn’t include arbitration salaries for players like Smith, May and others, but it seems like they could be well positioned to be more aggressive next winter. The areas that they target will likely be influenced by the performance of some of these rookies the rest of the way. The rotation is currently slated to lose Julio Urías, Noah Syndergaard and Clayton Kershaw at season’s end. Kershaw could always come back and the eventual return of Walker Buehler from Tommy John surgery will help, but one of the younger pitchers stepping up would also be a tremendous help.

On the position player side of things, J.D. Martinez, David Peralta and Jason Heyward are set for free agency, but the rest of the group should still be around. If Outman and Vargas keep playing well, or someone like Busch or Pages takes a step forward, it’s possible the club goes into the winter with lots of payroll space and few holes to fill.

James Outman, Jason Heyward Will Make Dodgers’ Opening Day Roster

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Outfielders James Outman and Jason Heyward will both make the Dodgers’ Opening Day roster, manager Dave Roberts announced to the team’s beat this morning (Twitter link via Juan Toribio of MLB.com). The Dodgers will need to make a 40-man roster move to add Heyward, although that can be accomplished simply by transferring shortstop Gavin Lux — who suffered a pair of torn knee ligaments earlier in camp — to the 60-day injured list. Roberts added that right-handers Jimmy Nelson and Daniel Hudson are expected to open the season on the injured list (Twitter link via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic).

Outman, 25, ranks among the Dodgers’ top outfield prospects and made his big league debut in 2022, going 6-for-13 with a homer and two doubles in a tiny sample of 16 plate appearances. He’s had a strong spring training, batting .268/.354/.512 with a pair of home runs, two doubles, a triple and a stolen base. The Dodgers will likely give him fairly regular looks in the outfield, perhaps pairing his powerful left-handed bat with the right-handed-hitting Trayce Thompson in center field.

Impressive as his spring has been, Outman’s 15 punchouts in 48 plate appearances are worth noting, given his strikeout tendencies in the minor leagues. The hit tool has always been the biggest question mark among scouts for Outman, who has fanned in 26.4% of his minor league plate appearances — including a 27.2% clip between Double-A and Triple-A a year ago. Varying opinions on that hit tool make him one of the more divisive prospects you’ll come across. For instance, while The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked Outman as the No. 89 prospect in all of baseball, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked him 26th in the Dodgers’ system alone.

It’s possible that Heyward will also see occasional time in center field, though he seems ticketed for a more traditional reserve outfielder role. He’s posted a .220/.304/.415 batting line with a pair of homers and doubles alike this spring, but Roberts was hinting that Heyward would make the roster very early in camp. He’ll cost Los Angeles only the league minimum, as he’s still technically playing out the final season of his eight-year, $184MM deal with the Cubs, who released him following the season. Any money paid to Heyward by the Dodgers will be subtracted from what the Cubs owe him, but they’re on the hook for the vast majority of this year’s $22MM salary.

The Dodgers’ outfield, in general, could be in a state of flux throughout the season. The aforementioned injury to Lux is likely to push utilityman Chris Taylor to the infield more regularly, and right fielder Mookie Betts could log around 20 games at second base this season, Roberts said earlier in camp (Twitter link via David Vassegh). That’ll create extra room to rotate Outman, Thompson and Heyward through the outfield alongside left fielder David Peralta, who’ll likely be in a platoon arrangement himself (be it with Thompson or Taylor). Top prospect Andy Pages figures to make his big league debut at some point in 2023 as well, and he’d add another righty-swinging corner bat to the mix.

Big Hype Prospects: Volpe, Wesneski, O’Hoppe, Harrison, Brujan

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we continue our offseason tradition of focusing on players tangentially linked to news and rumors.

Five BHPs In The News

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AA) 497 PA, 18 HR, 44 SB, .251/.348/.472

True to their word, the Yankees never got around to solving their left field opening with an external addition. Nor did they upgrade Josh Donaldson after the veteran turned in his worst-hitting performance since 2012. The club has opted to go with internal depth like Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Also factoring into the calculus is the imminent arrival of Volpe.

The 21-year-old slugger has only 99 plate appearances of experience at Triple-A and posted a modest 91 wRC+ at the level. While minor league data isn’t comprehensive, there’s evidence Volpe was too patient with pitches inside the strike zone. A repeat at the level makes sense given the personnel already on hand in the Majors. It would require an incredible Spring Training for Volpe to crack the Opening Day lineup. In the interim, with Gleyber Torres participating in the World Baseball Classic, Volpe should have more opportunities for middle infield game reps.

Hayden Wesneski, 25, SP, CHC (MLB)
(AAA) 110.1 IP, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 3.92 ERA

With Kyle Hendricks expected to begin the season on the injured list, the Cubs have a battle for the fifth rotation slot. The most intriguing entrant is Wesneski, a right-hander who showed a knack for avoiding hard contact in a brief 33-inning trial last season. Wesneski features a five-pitch repertoire including three distinct fastballs, a slider, and a changeup. While he doesn’t project to run rampant strikeout totals in the Majors, Wesneski is stingy about allowing hits and walks. It’s a Jameson Taillon-like profile, and it’s probably no accident the Cubs acquired both players in the last calendar year.

Logan O’Hoppe, 23, C, LAA (MLB)
(AA) 447 PA, 26 HR, 7 SB, .283/.416/.544

Acquired at the previous trade deadline for formerly hyped prospect Brandon Marsh, O’Hoppe will compete with Max Stassi for a starting role on the thirsty Angels. Although the right-handed hitter has yet to play in Triple-A, the Angels gave him a vote of confidence in the form of 16 Major League plate appearances last fall. O’Hoppe took advantage of hitter-friendly conditions to torch Double-A pitching. His 2022 breakout included improved plate discipline without sacrificing aggression against pitches in the heart of the zone. This is a relatively rare adjustment. Should he seize the Opening Day job, keep an eye on his plate discipline metrics. If he retains his selective aggression, O’Hoppe could emerge as one of the top catchers in the league.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
(AA) 84 IP, 13.61 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 3.11 ERA

Including High-A, Harrison threw a total of 113 innings. He should approach a full complement of 30 starts this season – perhaps with a mix of longer and shorter outings to manage his workload. The Giants put together a deep pool of Major League starters. In addition to the presumed starting five of Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, and Alex Wood, Jakob Junis and Anthony Desclafani await in the bullpen.

While Harrison finds himself behind a number of very qualified starters, the pool of viable minor leaguer replacements is relatively thin. This is also a group of veterans who (mostly) have familiarity with major injuries. This apparent depth could evaporate at a moment’s notice, offering a temporary opportunity for Harrison to audition. As of last look, command is Harrison’s greatest weakness. Most scouts think he’ll develop in this regard. If not, his stuff is sufficient to support him in short-burst starter or elite fireman roles.

Vidal Brujan, 25, 2B/OF, TBR (MLB)
(MLB) 162 PA, 3 HR, 5 SB, .163/.228/.259

Although technically no longer a prospect, Brujan still fits a looser definition of an “unestablished, young player.” He’s also received plenty of hype over the years. Brujan doesn’t fit cleanly on this iteration of the Rays roster, leading MLBTR staffer Anthony Franco to consider him a trade candidate. The switch-hitter has struggled to make impactful contact at the top level, though he has posted an above-average batting line at every minor league level – aside from nine plate appearances at Low-A in 2016. At one point, prospect watchers secretly hoped Brujan would flip a power switch like similarly-built infielder Jose Ramirez. Now it’s looking likelier Brujan settles as a defense-first regular with a contact-forward hitting approach.

Three More

Thad Ward, WSH (26): Although I’ve yet to hear of the Nationals planning to use Ward as a starter this season, the absence of Stephen Strasburg creates a tempting opportunity. Ward has served as a starter throughout his minor league career and profiles as a potential rotation regular. The Nationals are in a state of internal evaluation and have little reason to withhold starts from their Rule 5 pick.

James Outman, LAD (25): After spending much of the offseason with a clear path to a starting role, Outman now finds himself locked behind David Peralta. As a fellow left-handed hitter, Outman faces an uphill battle for regular reps.

DL Hall, BAL (24): Hall is currently behind schedule due to lower back discomfort. The oft-injured southpaw already looked questionable to make the Opening Day rotation. This setback only increases the risk of a minor league assignment. While Hall undoubtedly could play as a Major League reliever, the club is still assessing his potential as a starter.

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