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Fantasy Baseball: Anticipating Bullpen Holes

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Hello, friends.

With the All-Star break in the rearview mirror, the trade deadline on July 31 looms large. Players will be moved, but until we know where to, it can be hard to judge how much their value will change, given the importance of their new surrounding casts and/or home ballpark to that increased/decreased value. However, while we don't know where everyone will be going, we have a much better idea of who will be going.

If you know where the holes are going to be, you can at least make some reasonable guesses on who will likely fill them, whether it's a bench hitter moving into a more full-time role, or a top prospect being summoned to take a newly opened spot in the rotation. Or, in today's case, we can look at which bullpens are about to be carved up to be divided among the contenders, and which former setup men are about to get their shot at closing glory.

We'll look next week at potential holes in rotations and lineups, but let's start in the bullpen, as old relievers getting new roles can quickly swing the Saves landscape in your league. Are you still in the mix for a league title but have a Saves category mired in mediocrity? Now's your time to shine.

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Rockies Place Thairo Estrada On IL With Thumb Sprain

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The Rockies announced today that infielder Ezequiel Tovar has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list. In a corresponding move, fellow infielder Thairo Estrada goes the other way. He’s been placed on the 10-day IL due to a sprained left thumb, retroactive to July 11th.

It’s a notable development for Estrada and the Rockies, as he is one of the most obvious trade candidates this month. He’s a veteran playing for the worst team in the league, so all signs were pointing to him being on the block.

Unfortunately, his value was already low due to a previous injury. He signed a one-year, $3.25MM deal with the Rockies in the offseason but then broke his right wrist on a hit-by-pitch during spring training. Since he missed time in 2024 due to left wrist sprains, it was a less than ideal development for him.

He was reinstated from the IL at the end of May. Since then, he stepped to the plate 125 times with a .284/.312/.397 batting line. That looks okay at first glance but translates to an 83 wRC+ due to the favorable conditions of Coors Field.

Estrada had a strong three-run with the Giants from 2021 to 2023. He slashed .266/.320/.416 for a 105 wRC+ over those seasons, stealing 45 bases in the process. But he hit just .217/.247/.343 last year while battling those wrist issues. That got him bumped from the roster, which led to his deal with the Rockies.

If he had been able to bounce back to that 2021-23 form, he would have been an intriguing piece at this year’s deadline. Unfortunately, he’s now coming up on two years of being hurt and fairly ineffective. Given that the IL stint is backdated, he could come back in a week. But even in that best-case scenario, that doesn’t give him much time to change his trade value. He can be retained for 2026 via arbitration but is trending towards a non-tender.

Photo courtesy of Ron Chenoy, Imagn Images

Ryan Burr To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

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Blue Jays right-hander Ryan Burr will undergo season-ending surgery to address a capsule injury in his throwing shoulder. That was one of many updates that manager John Schneider provided about players on the roster. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet was among those to pass the info along.

Burr, now 31, had a solid showing with the Jays last year. He tossed 32 2/3 innings with a 4.10 earned run average. He struck out 33.6% of opponents and had a walk rate of 8.6%. If it weren’t for a .329 batting average on balls in play, he could have fared better, which is why FIP had him at 3.07 and SIERA at 2.66.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build on that here in 2025. He started the year on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. He eventually got healthy enough to be reinstated in early July. But after just two appearances, he was quickly placed on the 60-day IL with a rotator cuff strain.

He’ll stay on the IL for the rest of the year. He has passed three years of service time and will qualify for arbitration but the Jays may not tender him a contract. His results last year were good but he’s out of options will be coming off a lost season.

That wasn’t the only unfortunate news about the club’s bullpen depth. Right-hander Yimi García, who is on the 15-day IL due to a left ankle sprain, is experiencing ulnar nerve symptoms in his right elbow.

It’s a bit ominous, as elbow problems were a factor in his 2024 season. Right elbow ulnar neuritis sent him to the IL for about a month in June/July. He then returned to the IL in late August due to right elbow inflammation, after having been traded to the Mariners, and finished the season there.

The Jays nonetheless brought him back on a two-year, $15MM deal. He has tossed 21 innings with a 3.86 ERA this year, working around an IL stint for a right shoulder impingement, the recent ankle issue and now this elbow trouble.

With less than two weeks until the deadline, it’s possible these updates increase the motivation to add some fresh arms. Most contending clubs look for relief help ahead of the deadline and the unfortunate health developments could push the Jays farther in that direction.

There were unfortunate updates about Bowden Francis and Anthony Santander as well. Francis is on the IL with a shoulder impingement and will be shut down for ten days due to feeling “a bit cranky” in that shoulder. Santander is on the IL due to a left shoulder subluxation. He is still not swinging a bat and is set for further evaluation.

Though those are unfortunate updates, they may not have too much of an impact on the deadline. Francis posted a 6.05 ERA before hitting the IL, so the Jays probably weren’t going to be relying on him too heavily for the stretch run. Getting peak Santander back would be a nice boost for the lineup but the Jays have been getting good results from George Springer as the primary designated hitter and have a fairly crowded outfield mix consisting of Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Joey Loperfido and Davis Schneider, with Daulton Varsho on a rehab assignment and on pace to rejoin the club soon.

Image courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images

Max Kranick To Undergo Elbow Surgery

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5:35pm: Per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, Kranick could avoid a full Tommy John and undergo flexor tendon surgery instead. That would still be a major operation but it’s possible Kranick could come back with a slightly less severe timeline.

3:21pm: Mets reliever Max Kranick is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery, per Newsday’s Laura Albanese. It’ll be the second time he’s undergone Tommy John surgery in the past 37 months.

It’s a brutal blow for Kranick, who’s finally in the process of establishing himself as a solid big league arm after a lengthy layoff from his first UCL procedure, performed back in June of 2022. Kranick, then with the Pirates, missed nearly all of the 2023 season.

The Mets claimed Kranick off waivers in January 2024 and kept him on in the minors all last season. He got his first look with them in 2025 — his first MLB work since 2022 — and has been quite effective. In 37 innings, he’s recorded a 3.65 ERA. Kranick’s 16.9% strikeout rate is well below average, but his 3.4% walk rate is the fifth-best among the 347 big league pitchers who’ve tossed at least 30 innings in 2025.

Given the timing of the procedure and the fact that it’s his second Tommy John, Kranick could miss the entire 2026 season. At best, he’d be a candidate to return next September. He’s arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, so there’s a decent chance the Mets will decline to tender him a contract. Keeping him would mean dedicating a 40-man spot to Kranick all offseason, as there’s no 60-day injured list in the winter.

For the time being, Kranick will head to the 60-day injured list the next time the Mets need to open a 40-man roster spot. He’ll continue accruing major league service time and pay for the remainder of the current season. If the Mets opt to keep him on the roster all winter, they can immediately place him on the 60-day injured list when camp opens next spring. Kranick can be controlled through the 2028 season.

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Good afternoon everyone, hope you're well!
  • Sorry about dropping back to one subscriber chat these past two weeks. Prioritized getting those team-by-team deadline outlooks done before trade season really picks up

#1 Marlins Fan

  • Sounds like all of the Marlins trade news has gone completely silent the last couple of days. How many of players do you expect to be dealt?

Alcantara

  • When will the stove get warm? I am beginning to go crazy.

Anthony Franco

  • Probably still another week before it really gets going. Most of the activity will take place in the July 29-31 window
  • Barry Jackson with The Miami Herald had some details on the Marlins' thought process a couple days ago. Nothing especially surprising: listening on Cabrera, Sandy, Bender and Sánchez; would love to move Quantrill (obviously)
  • I think the first four guys will all go. They should get a ton of hits on Cabrera given the scarcity of potential top-end starters. Feels like a sell-high opportunity with his injury history, and he's their trade candidate who'd get the biggest return
  • I expect someone to add Fortes for a mid-level prospect. Might as well take what they can get for Faucher. Henriquez is probably their most interesting reliever but they might prefer to hold and let him build up a longer track record

Brewer Fan

  • Why do prospects sign for less than slot value? I get why teams want to obviously but what stops a prospect  from just saying pay me slot value?

Anthony Franco

  • Just a lack of leverage, especially for college guys. If you're a college senior, you basically can either take whatever the team offers you or not play affiliated baseball
  • High schoolers who go underslot usually do so because they're drafted higher than they'd go if it were just based on talent. The Braves went underslot with their first-round pick, but he was around 45th on Baseball America's pre-draft board. Slot value around that pick is in the $2M range
  • So if the Braves come to him and say "hey we'll take you at 22 but you have to sign for $2.6M against a slot value of $4M," he's better off taking that than waiting for the slot value of a pick between 40-60. That discussion happens before they make the pick, because if the player says no, then the Braves just draft someone else

Ross Atkins

  • Do you think Reid Detmers and Jo Adell might be available if the Angels are sellers?

Anthony Franco

  • I do not. I think the Angels will buy as long as they don't completely tank in the next two weeks, and even if they sell, it'd be rentals

Ken

  • What could the A's get for JP Sears?

Anthony Franco

  • Three and a half years of control. Durable but it's middling velocity and below-average swing and miss. You could kind of write off his huge home run rate this year as a product of the Sacramento bandbox, but that was an issue for him in Oakland as well
  • There'd be interest for sure but I think most contenders would view him as a low-end #4 or a fifth starter. Could see someone packaging a few mid-tier prospects but I'd be surprised if they got a huge headliner

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Orioles Re-Sign Corbin Martin To Major League Deal

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The Orioles announced that they have re-signed right-hander Corbin Martin to a major league deal. The O’s already had vacancies on their 40-man and active rosters, so no corresponding moves were necessary.

Martin was on the Baltimore roster as of a few days ago. On Sunday, he was designated for assignment to open an active roster roster spot for left-hander Grant Wolfram. Later that same day, just before gametime, Scott Blewett hit the IL with right elbow discomfort. Catcher David Bañuelos was recalled to take Blewett’s spot on the roster, presumably because he was with the club in a taxi squad capacity. Bañuelos was outrighted to Triple-A during the All-Star break. Martin cleared waivers and elected free agency but has quickly been re-signed, effectively taking the bullpen spot of Blewett.

Though he spent over a week on Baltimore’s roster, he only got to make one appearance. He tossed 1 1/3 scoreless innings back on July 2nd but then wasn’t used between that game and his DFA. Since he’s out of options, his grip on a roster spot is likely tenuous. However, the Orioles might sell some bullpen pieces prior to the deadline, with Seranthony Domínguez, Gregory Soto and Andrew Kittredge seeming like good candidates to be on the move. A trade of Félix Bautista is less likely but the O’s are at least listening to offers.

For now, he gets a major league job and will try to build on his season. Prior to getting called up at the start of July, he had tossed 32 1/3 Triple-A innings with a 5.29 earned run average. That probably disguises his performance a bit as his .306 batting average on balls in play, 68.4% strand rate and 17.9% home run to fly ball rate were all a bit to the unfortunate side. Meanwhile, he struck out 23% of batters faced with a 10.4% walk rate and 44.9% ground ball rate.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s bumped off the roster again in the next few days but a greater path to innings could open up if the O’s pull the trigger on some trades. Perhaps he could hang on the roster into August or re-sign another time if he is bumped off again.

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

Scott Alexander Elects Free Agency

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The Giants announced Friday that left-handed reliever Scott Alexander has cleared waivers and elected free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to Triple-A. He’ll be the corresponding 40-man and 26-man roster move for the previously reported promotion of fellow lefty Matt Gage to the Giants’ big league bullpen.

Alexander, 36, has pitched 17 2/3 innings between the Rockies and Giants this season and been hit hard, serving up a 6.11 ERA. He’s yielded a dozen runs on 23 hits — five of them homers — and nine walks with eight strikeouts. Alexander has also hit a batter. His Triple-A work hasn’t been any better, as he’s been tagged for six runs in 5 1/3 innings.

Rough as the 2025 season has been, it was just last year that Alexander turned in 38 2/3 frames of 2.56 ERA ball for the A’s. His 19.4% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate were both worse than average, but the well-traveled lefty’s 60% ground-ball rate was one of the top marks in the sport by any pitcher. Mass quantities of grounders are nothing new for Alexander, who has a career 66.4% ground-ball rate. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings since Alexander’s MLB debut in 2015, only the retired Zack Britton has a higher ground-ball rate.

Once again a free agent, Alexander can now explore opportunities with all 30 teams. He’s a nice depth option for any club looking to add some left-handed depth to its bullpen mix. In 327 career big league innings (349 total appearances), Alexander has a 3.36 ERA, 17.6% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate, 66.4% grounder rate, 0.69 HR/9, 13 saves and 65 holds.

Derek Law To Undergo Season-Ending Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Nationals right-hander Derek Law tells reporters, including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post, that he has a partial tear of his flexor tendon. He will undergo surgery which comes with a recovery time of nine to ten months.

Law, now 34, had a good season with the Nats in 2024. He tossed 90 innings over 75 appearances with a 2.60 earned run average. His 20.8% strikeout rate was a tad below average but his 6.6% walk rate and 48.5% ground ball rate were both strong numbers. A flexor strain put him on the IL on August 17th but he was reinstated two weeks later.

The Nats clearly didn’t think the flexor muscle was an issue going into 2025, as they tendered him a contract. He and the Nats avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $2.75MM salary for this year, the largest salary of the journeyman’s career. He began the campaign on the 15-day IL due to a flexor strain. He started a rehab assignment in June, though that lasted only four appearances. He was transferred to the 60-day IL in early July.

With the news of this surgery, it will go down as a lost season for Law. He has passed six years of service time and will become a free agent at season’s end. His market should be modest, given his age, track record and this procedure. Given the expected timeline, he will still be rehabbing when the 2026 campaign begins. He could perhaps hold a showcase for interested clubs once he is healthy but will likely be limited to minor league offers.

Law has pitched for the Giants, Blue Jays, Twins, Tigers, Reds and Nationals over his career. He has logged 346 innings with a 3.69 ERA, 21.1% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 45.8% ground ball rate.

Photo courtesy of Rafael Suanes, Imagn Images

Diamondbacks To Select Trevor Richards

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The Diamondbacks are selecting the contract of right-hander Trevor Richards from Triple-A Reno, reports John Gambadoro of 98.7 Arizona Sports. Alex Weiner of AZSports.com noted yesterday that Richards had a locker set up in the big league clubhouse during yesterday’s optional team workout at Chase Field. Catcher Adrian Del Castillo is also being recalled from Reno. Gambadoro adds that third baseman Eugenio Suárez, who had an injury scare when he was plunked on the hand in Tuesday’s All-Star Game, will be in tonight’s lineup for the D-backs.

Richards is now with his third organization of the season, having also spent time with the Royals and Cubs. He tossed three big league innings with Kansas City but was tagged for four runs in that small sample. That’s his only big league time this year. He’s spent the rest of the season between the Triple-A affiliates for those three clubs, pitching to a collective 5.12 ERA with a 22% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate.

The 32-year-old Richards has pitched in each of the past eight major league seasons, though he hasn’t had much success since 2021. He sports a 5.05 ERA in 205 innings dating back to Opening Day 2022. He’s set down 28.2% of his opponents on strikes in that time but has also issued walks to 12% of the hitters he’s faced and surrendered an average of 1.27 homers per nine innings pitched.

Arizona’s bullpen has been decimated by injury. A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez both underwent UCL surgeries last month. Jalen Beeks is out with a lower back issue, and Ryan Thompson hit the 15-day IL due to a shoulder injury a couple weeks back. Shelby Miller is on the 15-day IL due to a forearm strain.

Richards doesn’t have a strong recent track record, but he’s bee a serviceable middle reliever at various points in his career and at the very least can miss bats at a solid clip. His above-average changeup makes him a quality option against lefties — more so than versus righties — which probably holds extra appeal to the D-backs with both Puk and Beeks out of action. Andrew Saalfrank and 27-year-old rookie Kyle Backhus are the only lefties in manager Torey Lovullo’s bullpen and the only healthy left-handed relievers on the 40-man roster at the moment, so adding a righty who has a nice track record against southpaws makes some sense.

As for Del Castillo, it’s not yet clear what sort of corresponding move there is with regard to the catching corps. He’d be an upgrade offensively over Jose Herrera, who has been sharing catching duties with veteran James McCann while Gabriel Moreno’s broken finger heals. Neither Herrera nor McCann can be optioned — Herrera because he’s out of minor league options and McCann because players with five-plus year of MLB service cannot be sent down without their consent. McCann has more than 10 years of major league service time.

The 25-year-old Del Castillo made his MLB debut last year and hit .313/.368/.525 with four homers in 87 plate appearances. He’s slashing .288/.386/.559 in 70 plate appearances but has spent the bulk of the season on the minor league injured list. Herrera (.197/.302/.268) has struggled greatly at the plate but is a better defensive option. McCann has just 31 plate appearances since signing in the wake of that Moreno injury but has gone 9-for-24 with a pair of homers and a pair of doubles (.375/.516/.708).

Mets Reinstate Brooks Raley, Designate Richard Lovelady For Assignment

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The Mets announced that left-hander Brooks Raley has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Fellow lefty Richard Lovelady has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move.

Raley, 37, has been a solid lefty reliever for a few years now. He was working as a starter in Korea from 2015 to 2019 but returned to affiliated ball after that. He spent time with the Reds, Astros and Rays before coming to the Mets for the 2023 season.

His first season as a Met was a good one. He pitched 54 2/3 innings with a 2.80 earned run average. His 10.6% walk rate was a bit high but he punched out 25.8% of opponents and got grounders at a 43% clip. That was impressive enough that the Mets picked up his $6.5MM club option for 2024. Unfortunately, he made just eight appearances last year. He landed on the injured list due to elbow inflammation and eventually required Tommy John surgery.

He remained unsigned throughout this offseason but re-signed with the Mets in late April, a one-year deal with a $1.85MM guarantee. That comes in the form of a $1.5MM salary this year followed by a $300K buyout on a $4.75MM club option for 2026. There are also bonuses in the deal, including a $250K roster bonus that he unlocked by being added to the active roster today.

The Mets came into the year with A.J. Minter and Danny Young as their lefty relief contingent. Shortly after the Raley deal was agreed to, both Minter and Young hit the IL. Minter required season-ending lat surgery while Young required Tommy John surgery.

As Raley has been rehabbing, the Mets have cycled through a number of stopgap lefties, including Lovelady, Génesis Cabrera, José Castillo and Colin Poche. Ideally, Raley can get back to his pre-surgery form and give the club a reliable southpaw out of the ’pen. For what it’s worth, he just threw nine scoreless innings in the minors during his rehab assignment, with a 36.1% strikeout rate, 2.8% walk rate and 52.6% ground ball rate. Regardless of how he performs over the next few weeks, the Mets will likely look to add another lefty or two prior to the deadline.

Lovelady, 30, is out of options and has been been on the fringes of a few rosters this year. He started with the Blue Jays but made just two appearances for them before getting designated for assignment. He elected free agency and landed a minor league deal with the Twins, though he opted out of that in mid-June.

Since then, he has twice signed with the Mets. After the first signing, he made one appearance before being designated for assignment and electing free agency. He re-signed a few days later and the second stint lasted a bit longer, allowing him to make five appearances.

On the whole, he has a 10.80 ERA this year, though it’s a small sample of 8 1/3 innings and most of the damage came in his second outing of the season. During his stint with the Twins, he tossed 20 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 1.31 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 60.4% ground ball rate. Based on his recent track record, it’s possible he will again clear waivers and elect free agency in the coming days.

Photo courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Imagn Images

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