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Archives for February 2006

Jays Close To Signing Molina

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Ken Rosenthal reports that the Blue Jays are nearing a $5MM deal with Bengie Molina.  There will be a $7.5MM option for 2007.

I’m just not sure this does much to improve the club.  The Jays forced Gregg Zaun to full-time catching duty last season, and he was worth 3.3 wins for his $950,000 salary.  Molina, while several years younger, is coming off a season in which he was worth 3.5 wins.  Molina will cost $4MM more than Zaun does and should net the team one additional win at most.

The Jays still have huge question marks in their corner outfield spots.  They plan to employ some sort of rotation of Eric Hinske, Reed Johnson, Alex Rios, and Frank Catalanotto.  Wouldn’t it make more sense to save this $5MM for a corner outfield trade acquisition?

Besides Carlos Lee, trade candidates include Adam Dunn, Cliff Floyd, Luis Gonzalez, Bobby Abreu, Aubrey Huff, and Austin Kearns.  I know players like these come with a hefty price, but if the Jays are to fully execute their "win now" plan they need to upgrade at at least one of the corners.

Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities

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There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.

1.  He’s an impending free agent making $8.5MM.

2.  Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).

3.  The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006.  Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506.  Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.

4.  Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs.  According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.

The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee.  Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name.  Here’s my own analysis of the possibilities.

Red Sox – If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.

Blue Jays – Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don’t have much going on in LF.  If they’re hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.

White Sox – I don’t see it.  They didn’t part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth.  I’m for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don’t think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.

Angels – It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny.  Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.

Braves – The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency.  J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind.  They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.

Cubs – Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely.  Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.

Cardinals – They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.

My ranking of the most likely suitors:  Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs.  I’d like to see your thoughts in the comments.

Angels Sign Weaver?

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I’m not entirely familiar with the Halos Heaven blog quite yet, but the author is saying Jeff Weaver signing with the Angels is a done deal.  In their words: "the ink is dry."

Also, check out the latest Manny rumor in the same post.  While not quite the polar opposite of supposed offer that heavily favored the Red Sox, this one would definitely be a win for Los Angeles.  But if the Angels were willing to take on Manny’s entire contract, an offer of Escobar, Shell, and Rivera plus one top Angels prospect seems equitable.

KW Denies Abreu Rumor…Or Does He?

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Respected Chicago Tribune sportswriter Mark Gonzales got in touch with Kenny Williams through a spokesman tonight.  Based on this article, it seems that Gonzales inquired about the recent Abreu for Contreras/Dye rumor.  The word:

"Williams, through a team spokesman, said there is nothing to the report, adding he hadn’t spoken to the Phillies in eight or nine days and that no proposal was tendered."

Now, we didn’t report that this thing was on the verge.  My point, rather, was that the White Sox love Abreu.  That was confirmed by my source; the actual Dye/Contreras scenario was reportedly broken by Howard Eskin of 610 AM in Philadelphia. 

Given that Jermaine Dye is a capable, affordable right fielder, the White Sox aren’t desperate to upgrade right now.  Still, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the White Sox go after Abreu down the road.  Kenny Williams didn’t seem to be denying interest in Abreu.

What about Jose Contreras?  Word is that Houston is the top contender for his services.  Nothing would happen either way until the Clemens situation shakes out, and Rosenthal expects him back.  We reported the same back in December. 

Odds And Ends: Abreu, Manny

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In very minor news, ESPN is reporting that the Cubs have signed righthanded pitcher Jason Simontacchi to a minor league deal. He was slightly less than terrible for Triple A Memphis last year and saw 15 ugly innings in the Majors.  He’s not young, but did win 11 games for the Cards back in ’02.

Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News acknowledged the Abreu to the White Sox trade rumor, branding it an "Internet rumor."  Fair enough; I could’ve sworn Howard Eskin started this one though.  Regardless, I think we should start referring to rumors from the Philadelphia Daily News as simply "newspaper rumors."  Why try to identify the source?  Too much work. 

According to Conlin, "officials from both teams deny any such talks."  OK.  But I promise that the White Sox have interest in Abreu.  Whether they have the goods for it, I’m not sure.  While Conlin indicates the White Sox would be settling by adding Gavin Floyd to the deal, my sources and most Phillies fans feel that Floyd as a throw-in is overpayment by the Phils.

If this newspaper rumor about Manny Ramirez is to be believed, the Red Sox have no concept of trading players for equal value.  They might as well have asked for John Lackey and Vlad while they were at it.

WEEI’s Tejada Rumor Making Rounds

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The Dennis and Callahan Show on WEEI 850 in Boston broke out an improbable-sounding trade rumor this morning.  Here’s the idea:

Dodgers send: Derek Lowe, Hee Seop Choi
Red Sox send:  David Wells, Alex Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester, Tony Graffanino
Orioles send:  Miguel Tejada, Luis Matos

Dodgers receive: Wells, Graffanino, Matos
Red Sox receive:  Tejada, Choi
Orioles receive:  Lowe, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Lester

In my humble opinion, there’s about zero chance of a deal like this going down.  Then why am I posting about it?  For one thing, I’ve received a host of emails about the possibility.  So it seems that the people want to discuss it.  Secondly, plenty of these players are likely to be dealt, just not in this combination.

Is Derek Lowe on the block?  Certainly.  I know for a fact that the Cubs and Phillies have expressed interest in him.  I’m fairly certain he wouldn’t represent a big gain for the Orioles, however.  The Phils could still try to hammer something out to obtain Lowe.

Hee Seop Choi has nowhere to play on the Dodgers, and I mentioned before that I think the Devil Rays should make a play for him.  However, they’ve added Russell Branyan as a corner guy so it seems less likely at this point.  There isn’t much of a market for a first baseman, but Choi still deserves a chance.

Wells is certainly likely to be dealt, and the Dodgers are a viable candidate.  I mentioned yesterday that the Mets could consider Boomer as well.

Without doing any research, I have a feeling that a team can’t sign a free agent and trade him immediately.  That’s why the Alex Gonzalez thing seems way off to me.  Plus, Boston seemed to be trying to strengthen their defense.  That is supposedly where Gonzalez’s value lies.

The Red Sox won’t be trading Youkilis and Lester.  They’re far too valuable as building blocks.  Graffanino should be on the move, but that’s a minor deal.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Tejada dealt before the deadline, and a guy like Lester would have to be involved.  There’s a fair chance Ronny Cedeno bombs and the Cubs try to re-engage the Orioles this summer.  They’d be relying on the further development of minor leaguers to form an attractive package.

Matos, sure, he’ll end up somewhere.  But the Dodgers don’t need him.   

Choices Narrowing For Weaver

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Back on January 12th, we were able to reason our way towards determining six possible suitors for Jeff Weaver.  Here was the list:

"In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels."

Since then, the Orioles traded for Kris Benson and the Cubs signed a much cheaper option in Wade Miller.  The remaining four can be re-ranked as Angels, Cardinals, Mets, Astros.  You can almost cross Houston off the list; there hasn’t been talk of them pursuing Weaver as Jose Contreras remains high on their wish list.

The Los Angeles Times reports that the Angels may offer Weaver a one year contract with an option for 2007.  It’d be wise for the Angels to lock in the innings eater after losing Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd, who combined for 381 innings in 2005.

I’d put the Angels chances of signing Weaver at 75%.  The Mets really aren’t looking to take on Weaver; he may not perform under the spotlight again and isn’t significantly better than Benson (he’s maybe about one win better).  The Cards would be mad to add Weaver to a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan, and Sidney Ponson/Anthony Reyes.  The club is wavering on starting Reyes, and he’s already better than Weaver.  Weaver is barely an improvement over Marquis, so dealing him and signing Weaver would be a curious decision.  I suppose it could happen if the right outfield bat came along in return for Marquis though.       

New Feature For RotoAuthority Fantasy Guide

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With spring training on the horizon, many fantasy leaguers are beginning draft preparation.  A lot of folks run out and buy a couple of $8 magazines from the "experts" that were finalized in the middle of December.  Three other guys at the draft are sporting the same magazine, and none of you have heard of Kenji Johjima.

I created the 2006 RotoAuthority Fantasy Baseball Guide as a remedy to that problem.  I’ve already sent out seven updates since its launch in early January.  Throughout the season, I’m covering call-ups, trades, and any other major changes that affect fantasy baseball.  Feedback has been overwhelmingly positive; the Guide is loaded with sleepers, player comments, projected stats, and all sorts of bells and whistles. 

For example, I’ve just added a new tool for navigating through your draft.  It’s a ranking of the top 590 players and includes their position eligibility.  There’s a spot for the drafting team, and once you enter the team’s name that player is grayed out from your master list.  I’ve found it quite useful.

So if you’ve been wavering or hadn’t heard of it, at least hop over to RotoAuthority and read the full details on the Guide.  Hundreds of people have found it to be an incredible value at ten bucks.  If you’re curious about my methodology, visit the 2006 Player Projections link at RotoAuthority and see my logic behind dozens of the more interesting players’ numbers.

Mets Interested In Wells?

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Spoke with my Mets guy this morning.  He had plenty of info to pass along.

First, he said that any recent rumors going around are "bogus."  Plenty of other websites have added to that sentiment.

He also mentioned that Minaya wants to add a starter.  That’s fairly well known, but he also said that the Mets may try to make a move on David Wells if nothing better comes along before spring training.  It’s the first I’d heard of that.

He said the Mets are convinced that Anderson Hernandez is the answer at second base for 2006, and that Jeff Keppinger could be moved for pitching if he has a good spring.  No doubt the Mets would love to dump Kaz Matsui if someone would take even half his salary.

Latest Red Sox Rumor – Clement, Vidro, Milledge

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Several emailers have alerted me to a post made over at Sons of Sam Horn late last night.  A respected poster lays out this scenario:

Red Sox trade Matt Clement and Alex Cora
Nationals trade Jose Vidro and Jay Bergmann
Mets trade Lastings Milledge and Xavier Nady (with some chance of Victor Diaz instead of Milledge)

Red Sox receive Milledge and Nady
Nationals receive Clement and Cora plus cash if Clement pitches over 150 innings
Mets receive Vidro and Bergmann plus a PTNBL from either Nats or Sox depending on Vidro’s health. (Livan Hernandez could end up with the Mets as well)

I paraphrased a few things but this is all from the post.  I haven’t heard anything about these players lately, but I thought the rumor would make for interesting discussion.  My thoughts:

From the Red Sox point of view, it’s either a steal or a salary dump.  It’d be a steal if Milledge were indeed the centerpiece.  However, there are some who believe Milledge is not even a top 100 prospect.  Don’t gasp, Mets fans – David Luciani knows what he’s talking about and still respects Milledge.

If the Red Sox are acquiring Diaz and Nady for Clement, I can’t see a big improvement to their club for 2006.  It would have to be motivated by the $19MM owed to Clement over the next two seasons, but the Red Sox aren’t having budget problems so it doesn’t make a lot of sense.  The issue of whether the Sox have starting pitching depth from which to deal has been debated endlessly; it depends on how you evaluate their young guys.

The Nationals wouldn’t be surrendering much to get Clement.  I’ve been told Vidro’s health is still questionable, and he makes $23MM over the next three seasons.  The team would love to get out from under that contract.  24 year-old Bergmann looks like a decent enough reliever, but not a top tier prospect.  The Nationals would definitely have to bump someone out of the rotation to give Clement a spot.  They are currently six deep with Tony Armas, Ryan Drese, Livan Hernandez, Brian Lawrence, Ramon Ortiz, and John Patterson.

The deal makes the least amount of sense for the Mets.  It’s been stated repeatedly that the team wants to hold onto Milledge, and that is thought to be the only reason they haven’t traded for Barry Zito.  So the addition of Vidro and his albatross contract doesn’t equate here.  Add Livan Hernandez and you might have something, but the 30 year-old may not be ace material anymore after posting a 1.43 WHIP in 2005.

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