2007 Colorado Rockies
Time to break down the Rockies for 2007. Many thanks to the fine Rockies blog Purple Row, a helpful resource.
Dan O’Dowd’s contract obligations:
C – Chris Iannetta – $0.38MM
C – Yorvit Torrealba – $1MM
1B – Todd Helton – $16.6MM
2B – Kaz Matsui – $1.5MM
SS – Troy Tulowitzki – $0.38MM
3B – Garrett Atkins – $0.38MM
IF – Jamey Carroll – $0.7MM
IF – Clint Barmes – $0.38MM
LF – Matt Holliday – $0.7MM
CF –
RF – Brad Hawpe – $0.38MM
OF – Cory Sullivan – $0.38MM/Jeff Baker – $0.38MM
SP – Jason Jennings – $5.5MM
SP – Jeff Francis – $0.38MM
SP – Aaron Cook – 3.05MM
SP – Byung-Hyun Kim – $2.5MM
SP –
SP – Ubaldo Jimenez – $0.38MM
RP – Brian Fuentes – $3.5MM
RP – Jeremy Affeldt – $1MM
RP – Denny Bautista – $0.38MM
RP – Ramon Ramirez – $0.38MM
RP – Manuel Corpas – $0.38MM
RP – David Cortes – $0.38MM
RP –
By my estimate the Rockies have $40.6MM locked up before raises, so let’s say $45MM for now. Holliday alone could see his salary increase by $4MM in arbitration. They entered the 2006 season with a $41.2MM payroll.
The Rox appear to have a capable tandem behind the plate with rookie Iannetta and 28 year-old Torrealba. However, the team is still concerned with Torrealba’s strained shoulder, which dates back to September. There has been talk of importing either Bengie Molina or Rod Barajas to split time with the promising but green Iannetta.
First base is set through 2011 with Helton. His ’06 offensive performance ranked 12th among first basemen. Maybe not worth the price, but not many guys can give you a .400 OBP. He is taking up 35% of the payroll, however. Helton has an out clause after ’07, but I don’t see him abandoning $69MM for four seasons.
The middle infield is good to go, with Tulo and Matsui seemingly the main guys and Carroll playing the utility role. Atkins trailed only Miguel Cabrera for the best offensive season for a third baseman in 2006. He progressed beyond expectations by hitting a robust .329/.409/.556 in almost 700 PAs.
Can’t go wrong with Holliday and Hawpe at the corners, especially for the price. I’m not sure what the plan is for 25 year-old outfielder Jeff Baker, but some projections like him quite a bit for next year. He may steal some time from Hawpe, according to Clint Hurdle.
Of course the big need for this team is center field. A slew of candidates have been mentioned: Aaron Rowand, Dave Roberts, Chris Burke, Jay Payton, Darin Erstad, Brady Clark, Steve Finley, Coco Crisp, and even Clint Barmes. The only free agent I haven’t seen connected in print to Colorado is Kenny Lofton.
If O’Dowd prefers, that CF could come via trade. Jason Jennings is generating some buzz, and reports say that the Rockies are listening to offers. He averaged over 6.6 innings per start this season and posted a 3.78 ERA. He’ll be just 28 in 2007. However, free agency is around the corner and Jennings could easily post a 4.50 ERA in ’07 based on his peripherals.
Jennings is still a hittable pitcher with subpar command right now. I would shop him aggressively for the next month and definitely trade him before the season begins. Last winter, Kevin Towers’s Adam Eaton situation was comparable to this. He snagged Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez in that deal. It’s a shame Jennings didn’t win nearly as many games as he deserved to, or his market value would be even higher.
Elsewhere in the rotation, the Rockies have talked about several guys to fill out the last slot: Josh Fogg again, Rodrigo Lopez via trade, Carl Pavano trade, or free agents Bruce Chen or John Thomson. Thomson wouldn’t cost much and he came up through the organization. The Rox sent Thomson to the Mets in an ’02 trade for Jay Payton.
For the sixth starter type spot, hard-throwing 23 year-old Ubaldo Jimenez could work after a fine 13 start effort at Double A this year. Chin-Hui Tsao, rehabbing from rotator cuff surgery, could work his way back into the mix.
The pen has some live arms, but the Rockies are looking for help. Many players have the team’s interest: Octavio Dotel, David Riske, Dan Kolb, LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Williamson, Scott Schoeneweis, Justin Speier, and even Eric Gagne. Look for a low-level signing or two.
To sum it up, the Rockies have a center fielder and a couple of relievers in their sights. I have my doubts that the Rockies would lock Jennings up for four or five years at $10-12MM annually, so a trade this year seems likely. Pretty much every team wants pitching, and there are plenty good young CFs available.
Matt Holliday is Rockie property through 2009, though he hired Scott Boras this year and will probably go year-to-year for the duration of his Rockie career. The Rox had looked to lock him up last winter until he switched to Boras.
51.1
Can you believe it? The Red Sox won the rights to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka for $51.1MM. That’s more than many teams’ entire payrolls!
When speculation first began, people were thinking half that.
D-Rays Win Akinori Iwamura Bid
According to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the Devil Rays have won the bid for infielder Akinori Iwamura.
Cubs Close On DeRosa?
According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000, the Cubs are about to finalize a three-year contract with 2B/3B/RF Mark DeRosa.
DeRosa could start at second base and also play right field when the Cubs face a southpaw.
UPDATE: ESPN says the contract is for $13MM. Jim Hendry has a tendency to buy high on guys…but I don’t mind this move.
Rangers Covet Brian Anderson?
Phil Rogers, down with the GMs in Florida, uncovered a trade possibility of White Sox center fielder Brian Anderson for Rangers reliever Nick Masset.
Anderson will turn 25 before next season. The former first rounder had a rough first year offensively for the Sox, but he still has the potential to be a slightly above average CF package.
Masset will also be 25 next season. A converted starter, he’s pitching well in the Mexican Winter League.
Mets Re-Sign El Duque
The Mets inked Orlando Hernandez for two years and $6MM. For that price, who can complain?
So far the only locks for the 2007 rotation in my mind are Hernandez and John Maine. Of course, there are plenty of remaining options. Keep in mind that El Duque hasn’t topped 161 innings for a while now, so the team will have to use its sixth or seventh starters.
Here’s a look at the current state of the starting pitching free agent market.
UPDATE: The deal would be a lot less desirable at double the price, which is what Ken Rosenthal is reporting.
Cubs Info From Bruce Levine
Bruce Levine of ESPN 1000 has some new Cubs info for us. He reports that the Cubs have asked the Indians about a possible deal involving Cliff Lee or Jake Westbrook in exchange for relief pitching.
In addition, the Cubs may consider Ray Durham as a source of power for second base.
Kevin Mench for Rodrigo Lopez?
Rodrigo Lopez has been on the trading block for what seems like years. And anyone who has taken the time to count the Brewers outfielders know that some of them–including Kevin Mench and Geoff Jenkins–will be on the block this offseason. So, it’s only logical that the Brewers and Orioles have chatted about Lopez for Mench.
I wrote about Lopez in a post on my blog when it was first reported that the Brewers had inquired after him–he had a disastrous year last year, posting a 5.90 ERA, but he’s not too old, he’s been a reliable innings eater, and he has had a couple of decent years pitching in the brutal AL East. A switch to the NL Central, with a steady diet of the Pirates and Astros, could do wonders for his fantasy value.
Contract-wise, the deal makes sense: both are entering their final year of arbitration, and both are coming off of years that could make a case for non-tenders. Rosenthal points out in the article that having Lopez would free up the Brewers to trade Doug Davis, another innings eater coming off a so-so year. Their contract situations are the same, but Davis probably has more trade value than Lopez (if only because Davis’s ERA wasn’t near 6 last year).
Posted by Jeff Sackmann
Seibu Accepts Matsuzaka Bid
According to this article from Yahoo Japan, the Seibu Lions have accepted the bid for Daisuke Matsuzaka and an announcement of the winning team will come Tuesday evening.
I wonder which team won?? Could it be?
Ken Rosenthal weighs in with disapproval of the huge bid. And with a culturally relevant quip.
Padres To Trade Brian Giles?
An idea I hadn’t heard before: Tom Krasovic reports that Brian Giles could be available.
Remember way back to…last year? Giles was perhaps the premiere free agent outfielder on the market. He got MVP votes in 2005. He played good enough defense that the Yankees even considered signing him to play center last winter.
But here we are, with Giles owed $18MM over his age 36-37 seasons. Kevin Towers is out flirting with J.D. Drew and Alfonso Soriano (and Towers is taking them to fancy dinnesr) while Giles is yesterday’s news despite his acceptance of a hometown discount.
I really thought Giles would age better than this. His slugging plummetted 86 points. His flyball percentage actually increased, and his home runs per flyball didn’t drop too far. Almost half of the power outage can be blamed on a decrease in triples, believe it or not. Extrapolating his 2006 to the 545 ABs of the previous year, Giles had six fewer singles, five fewer doubles, seven fewer triples, and two fewer home runs. Doesn’t sound like much, but in sum it looks pretty bad.
He also saw his walk rate decline by about 3% (though walking 14.5% of the time ain’t too shabby). Giles should still be worth most of his remaining salary, and it’s only two years. He’d be a fine pickup for the Phillies, Mariners, or Rangers, whose parks are kind to left-handed power hitters.