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Archives for December 2006

Rosenthal’s Latest

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Ken Rosenthal has some new late-night material up.  Some highlights:

The Orioles still want Adam LaRoche…these rumors just won’t die.  Bucco Blog may have had enough.  The new structure seems to be something like Chris Ray and Hayden Penn to Atlanta for LaRoche.  The O’s are right to shop Ray; I don’t think he’ll have a 2.73 ERA or 33 saves in 2007.

The Phils or Rockies could sign Rod Barajas, pushing aside cheaper players who’d probably be reasonably effective.  Sounds like overkill; Chris Iannetta is especially polished.

Apparently the Yanks still like Shea Hillenbrand but want him on a one-year deal.  The Minky stuff could just be a brilliant ploy.

The Devil Rays couldn’t get Marcus Giles to take their three-year offer; various Baldelli and Upton packages didn’t entice them.  Still think there’s going to be some action with this club soon enough.

Yankees Sign Igawa

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ESPN reported late last night (early this morning) that the New York Yankees have reportedly agreed to a contract with their own Japanese star pitcher Kei Igawa. Igawa should get $20MM (plus incentives) over 5 years according to the report and should fill the Yankees’ fifth starter position in their rotation. That added to the $26MM the Yankees paid for Igawa’a posting fee brings his total cost to $46MM, more than $65MM less than Matsusaka of the Red Sox could cost (if all of Dice-K’s incentives are met).

With Igawa, the Yankees’ rotation is currently looking to shape up with Johnson, Mussina, Wang, Pettitte (pending his physical), and now Igawa. There is still talks of Johnson being traded to make room for either Clemens, Pavano, or even Hughes.

By Adam Howe of Game Four

Randy Johnson Trade Rumors

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Being that it is a slow news day, I feel olbliged to bring up the recent rumors involving 43 year-old starter Randy Johnson.

It certainly could be nothing, as George King reported yesterday that Johnson has not demanded a trade.  Johnson’s agent denied any sort of trade request. 

It seems that the basic premise is that the Yanks would move Johnson to a less stressful location for prospects to make room for Roger Clemens.  Failing that, dealing him could open up a spot for Carl Pavano.  Something tells me Brian Cashman wouldn’t trade Johnson anytime soon as no one knows if Clemens or Pavano are even viable options.

A more likely scenario, to me, is the Yanks considering trading Johnson once Philip Hughes forces their hand.  There is no reason to rush the 20 year-old, and a half-season at Triple A wouldn’t hurt.  But Hughes would not be overmatched in the Majors right now.  There’s also a decent chance that Hughes will be needed as the Yanks’ fifth starter in the event of an injury to Johnson, Pettitte, or Mussina. 

The Big Unit is owed $16MM in 2007 to finish his contract.  I think a lot of NL teams would take the gamble with his age and back to see if he has one more run of excellence.  While the numbers are slipping, Johnson’s peripheral stats and baserunners allowed were still excellent in 2006.

Free Agent Leftovers

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Taking a look at my Top 50 Free Agents list from November 2nd, only nine players remain.  So far I’ve guessed correctly on 14 of the 41 signees (34%).  That’s already an improvement on last year, but I have to admit there were a lot of no-brainers.

More importantly, let’s take a look at the nine leftovers and assess the possibilities.

4. Barry Zito – The Mets will meet with Zito this week.  The Angels recently dropped out of the bidding.  The Rangers have already made an offer, and the Giants seem to be on the fringe.  If Zito craves the big stage, he’ll become a Met.  If it’s all about the money, it seems that the Rangers will have the top offer.  Would the Mets add a sixth year?

7. Roger Clemens – The Rocket will decide whether to pitch after the new year, and he’ll choose between the Astros, Red Sox, and Yankees for a possible 2/3 season.  Sound familiar?  The Red Sox may be strapped for cash, but leaving Jon Papelbon at closer and adding Clemens could make them the favorite in the AL East.  If things are still up in the air in May or June, perhaps an injury among the five Yankee starters could put them back in the game.  But right now, Houston is still the favorite.

27. Jeff Weaver – Last year’s one-year contract/Boras ploy didn’t work out, but Weaver can still get a multiyear deal in this market.  The Cardinals might want him back; not many other suitors have emerged.  Perhaps the Giants or the loser of the Zito sweepstakes will get involved.  Last year, Weaver didn’t sign until February.   

28. Jeff Suppan – Arguably the second best free agent starter remaining.  The Giants, Brewers, Pirates, Royals, and Blue Jays are still in the running for him.  He’ll wait for Zito to sign first.

35. Trot Nixon – He hasn’t been terribly popular this offseason.  The Pirates have made an offer, and the Orioles have some interest. The A’s or Phils could still jump in if the price is right.  One year, $7MM might get it done.

39. Mark Mulder – Mulder just got married this weekend.  Congrats, Mark!  I’m sure his new wife doesn’t want him on the phone with his agent on the honeymoon, so a decision isn’t forthcoming.  He wants a two-year deal and the D’Backs, Cards, Rangers, Padres, Indians, Devil Rays, Orioles, or Giants could sign him.  He’s already got offers in hand from Texas, Arizona, and St. Louis despite the uncertainty of his shoulder.

46. Aubrey Huff – The last reliable, fairly young bat.  The Pirates have been surprisingly disinterested, but the Orioles, Astros, or Phillies could make an offer.  Houston doesn’t have a ton of room for him though, and the O’s signed Jay Payton.  He might have to reduce his demand to a two-year contract and could be a bargain.

47. Craig Wilson – The only team to show even mild interest so far has been the Yankees.  They’re currently checking Doug Mientkiewicz’s medical records and seem to be leaning that way.  That leaves Wilson floating around as a poor man’s Huff, unable to play any position well.  Perhaps he should don the tools of ignorance again and market himself that way.

48. Ryan Klesko – Why wouldn’t the Mariners sign a guy like this instead of trading for Jose Vidro?  Klesko’s said to be feeling good, and he could provide 20 HR and a nice OBP as a DH.  The Giants and Orioles are the only interested parties right now.

J.D. Drew – Major Shoulder Damage?

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Tony Massarotti of the Boston Herald reported yesterday that J.D. Drew appeared to have a problem with his physical.  He indicated that an Ivan Rodriguez-like injury clause would be included.  He didn’t expect the deal to be killed altogether.

Additionally, Will Carroll chimes in with speculation that Drew’s shoulder could be damaged to the level of Scott Rolen in 2005.  That year, Rolen slugged just .383 in a lost season.

Whatever the problem, Drew will seek a second medical opinion on Monday.

Alex Rios On The Block

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ESPN’s Buster Olney reports in his blog that the Blue Jays are willing to trade right fielder Alex Rios, who turns 26 in February.  The Blue Jays are in search of one more quality starter to pair with Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Gustavo Chacin, and perhaps Casey Janssen or Shaun Marcum.  It’s a necessity in the AL East.

Back in 2004, Baseball America ranked Rios sixth among all prospects, between Rickie Weeks and Kaz Matsui.  Rios earned a promotion to Toronto without mastering Triple A, and his growth kind of stagnated for two years.  He played some center field while Vernon Wells was out, and also served as the leadoff hitter for a while.

Before the breakout, many teams tried to pry Rios away.  The Nats talked about a Rios for Nick Johnson deal in December of 2004.  You can bet Jim Bowden would love him in CF, but doesn’t have the goods for a trade.  In the winter of ’05, the Rangers were offering Kevin Mench for Rios while the Nats countered with Brad Wilkerson.

The much-awaited breakout happened this year, as Rios mashed at .330/.383/.585 for 270 ABs leading up to his June 29th leg injury (staph infection).  He returned on July 28th and hit .261/.297/.411 thereafter.  It was an ugly couple of months but he did bounce back in September.

Some projections for ’07:

Ron Shandler: .293/.337/.500
Bill James: .286/.336/.442

On his glovework, The Fielding Bible wrote:

"Rios is an excellent defender, a five-tool player with outstanding range and speed and a strong, accurate arm suited for right field.  The Jays would love to switch him to center field where he is a better offensive fit, but they have a Gold Glover in Vernon Wells entrenched there."

With Ichiro now in center, Rios may be baseball’s best defensive RF. 

Olney mentions a few trade possibilities: to the Dodgers for Brad Penny, to the A’s for Joe Blanton, or to the Mets for a package of young guys.  Olney didn’t bring up the White Sox, but there could be an excellent fit.  The Sox could use Rios in center in 2007, and perhaps shift him back to right in ’08 if Jermaine Dye leaves.

White Sox Sign Toby Hall

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According to a press release from the White Sox, the team has signed free agent catcher Toby Hall to a two-year, $3.65MM deal.  There’s a $2.25MM club option for 2009.

Hall turned 31 this year; he hit well after a trade to the Dodgers after a June 27th trade from the Devil Rays.  Hall didn’t like being a backup and requested a trade in July.  Today’s signing indicates that he just couldn’t find full-time work anywhere, since A.J. Pierzynski plays a good 135 games a year.

Hall is a solid defender and his right-handed stick complements A.J. well.  He’s got a high-contact hitting style but little power or ability to draw walks.  Hence, the lack of interest in him as a starter.

Adam LaRoche For Brian Roberts?

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The AP is reporting that the Braves and Orioles have discussed a straight-up swap of Adam LaRoche for Brian Roberts.  They further indicate that Mark Loretta’s agent has spoken to Baltimore; he could replace Roberts at 2B.

LaRoche’s power numbers would benefit from a switch to Camden Yards, though not significantly.  Turner Field suppresses home runs for left-handed hitters by about 11% while Camden suppresses them by around 4%.  The figures come courtesy of the Bill James Handbook.

LaRoche turned 27 recently and offers three full years of service time. Roberts turned 29 this year and has two years of service time left.  LaRoche made $420,000 in ’06 while Roberts made $3.075MM.  According to WARP, LaRoche was worth 6.2 wins in 2006 and Roberts 4.7.  Fan favorite or not, the O’s should swap Roberts for LaRoche if given the chance. 

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