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Archives for June 2007

Roster Squeeze for Angels

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The LA Times points out a sticky situation:

The roster move the Angels make to activate infielder Maicer Izturis, who began a rehabilitation assignment at Rancho Cucamonga Monday, is not as clear-cut as it seems.

Reserve outfielder Nathan Haynes is the logical choice to be sent to triple-A Salt Lake, but even though Haynes made his major league debut last week, he is out of minor league options because he was removed from the Angels’ 40-man roster three times during his minor league career.

It’s a classic problem for teams: they want to keep a player like Haynes (of course), but at the same time, would it really be that big of a deal?  If Haynes were going to turn into anything, he probably would’ve right now, so they’d basically be putting a reserve outfielder at risk in the middle of his career-best hot streak. 

That said, the Times recommends a couple other courses of action.  Erick Aybar could be demoted, which makes plenty of sense, since he and Izturis are somewhat redundant.  Also, Shea Hillenbrand could be axed.  That makes even more sense, because if Haynes really is worth hanging onto, it stands to reason that he could outhit Hillenbrand’s vomit-inducing 241/261/324 line.

(Side note: when you can be accused of having an "empty" .241 batting average, you suck.  It’s that simple.)

So, let’s say Shea goes back on the market.  Do I hear any bids?  Cash considerations?  A single-A backup catcher?

…

That’s what I was afraid of.

By Jeff Sackmann
Brew Crew Ball

The Percival Saga Continues

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For all the ink being spilled over the soon-to-be home of Troy Percival, is this guy really going to make much of a difference?  For all of his career saves, he really didn’t have that many dominating seasons, and of course it’s been a few years since he put together a full healthy season, regardless of quality.

Anyway, Rosenthal checks in with a report on the teams present at Troy’s most recent workout, notably new additions the Braves and the A’s.  Atlanta shouldn’t come as a surprise: John Schuerholz has been on a mission to have a solid pen ever since last year’s debacle, and with Mike Gonzalez going on the shelf for the rest of the year, it’s only natural that he’d seek another late-inning option.  The A’s are less obvious, but also make sense in their way: they’ve been aggressive in acquiring high-risk, high-reward type players, and they are also short a couple of relief arms due to injury.

Finally, the Philly Inquirer cites reports that the Phillies and Tigers are most interested in Percival. 

By Jeff Sackmann
Brew Crew Ball

The Latest on Teixiera

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As the Rangers fall further and further out of the AL West race, the rumors about Mark Teixiera keep coming up.  But Jon Daniels says he’s not making any calls, though he expects to get plenty.  Tex would be an upgrade for an awful lot of teams, but the most obvious one is the Yankees, who have both Jason Giambi and Doug Mientkiewicz on the disabled list.

Another interesting destination could be Detroit, where first base duties are being shared by the unimpressive Sean Casey and the underwhelming Marcus Thames.  Better yet, the Tigers are stacked with young pitching, so there’s no doubt they have the ammo to get a deal done.

By Jeff Sackmann
Brew Crew Ball

Tigers Trade Rumors

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Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press has the trade chatter surrounding the Tigers.

The first issue is the bullpen, which is having all sorts of problems. Joel Zumaya is out for three months after finger surgery, Fernando Rodney has been on the DL with biceps tendinitis, Jose Mesa predictably bombed, and Todd Jones has struggled recently.  Logically, the Tigers are scouring the trade market for relief pitching.  They still might sign Troy Percival.  The main competition there seems to be the Phillies.  Morosi also indicates that a trade could be worked out with the Rangers for Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka.  Peter Gammons confirms Gagne’s availability, and also mentions Al Reyes as a trade candidate.

Last December, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski showed interest in Renyel Pinto of the Marlins and C.J. Wilson and Ron Mahay of the Rangers.  That was back when the need was though to be a lefty specialist rather than just relievers in general.

One expendable player for the Tigers might be 29 year-old southpaw Mike Maroth.  The Tigers were offering him up in December but couldn’t find a deal.  Maroth had surgery a year ago to remove bone chips from his elbow, and was never right in ’06.  While he’s made all his starts this year, Maroth isn’t pitching like he did from 2003-05.  This year, his K rate is down even further, his control is off, and he’s allowed an unacceptable number of home runs (15 in 61 innings).  Morosi confirms Maroth’s availability via an NL exec.  The return of Kenny Rogers later this month may push him out of the rotation. 

Maroth makes $2.95MM this year and then will be eligible for arbitration afterwards.  He’ll become a free agent after the 2008 season.  He alone probably won’t bring a useful reliever, but could be part of a larger deal.   

White Sox Won’t Trade For Prospects

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White Sox GM Kenny Williams spoke to reporters yesterday, indicating that his phone lines are buzzing but he won’t be trading his future free agents for prospects.  Talent for talent is the name of the game, though the Jermaine Dye/Bobby Abreu talks have apparently died.

The Sox are given a meager 1.7% chance to make the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA.  And I rounded up.  They’re in fourth place, seven games back in the AL Central.  They’re in fifth for the wild card, 4.5 games out.  If we try this exercise without PECOTA projections, the chances still seem bleak at 4.1%.  Using a third method, Elo, the Sox have an 11.2% chance.  I’d lean toward the latter; while the competition is fierce, 4.5 games doesn’t seem insurmountable.

Williams is an optimist, which fans have to appreciate.  He even mentioned that he’s up for the "rent-a-player scenario."  That could mean acquiring even more impending free agents, like perhaps Adam Dunn.

Like all other teams, Williams has almost two months to decide if his team is truly a contender.  The worst outcome would be treading water for that time period.

Rosenthal’s Latest

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Time for another Rosenthal column!  Some of this is just a writeup from his recent video; here’s the new stuff.

  • A little elaboration on the Adam Dunn to San Diego idea – Rosenthal throws Clay Hensley’s name into the mix.  Hensley has had a rough couple of months, with a nasty blister, a groin strain, and some awful starts.  His 54% groundball rate would be a nice fit in Chicago or Cincinnati.  Another player I could see catching Wayne Krivsky’s eye is Cla Meredith.
  • The Cubs continue to shop Jacque Jones, hoping to slide Felix Pie in every day.  Pie is ready for the show, but the Cubs would like something to show for Jones.  He is earning $4MM this year and $5MM in ’08.  It looked like a bargain after Jones hit .285/.334/.499 last year, but he’s tanked in the Cubs’ crowded outfield.  He could fit well with the Padres, a team that doesn’t hit lefties or righties.  Jones normally just struggles with lefties.  Jacque was born in San Diego, too.  Kevin Towers and Jim Hendry matched up for a couple of smaller deals last summer with Todd Walker and Scott Williamson.
  • Mike Lowell may leave Boston after this season as a free agent.  He’s easily the best affordable 3B on the market.  Perhaps the Yankees want him back.  Other possibilities include the Dodgers, Giants, Angels, Phillies, and Astros according to Rosenthal.  Hard to believe Lowell is so popular and successful after he was a throw-in forced upon the Red Sox in the Josh Beckett deal.
  • Eric Byrnes is probably headed out of Arizona, and he’d be a valuable center field addition who won’t break the bank.  He’ll be 32 in ’08, and on a reasonable three-year deal could be a better value than Ichiro, Torii, or Andruw.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see the White Sox get involved.

Goldman On A-Rod

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Steven Goldman has a well-reasoned column in the New York Sun today discussing why it’s important for the Yankees to trade Alex Rodriguez.  Here’s a hint: they need to restock on position players.  It’s not about the tabloid stuff or the infamous "hah!"  Personally I like the tactic but wouldn’t use "hah."  When I played sandlot ball we used to shout "Confusion!  Confusion!" over and over when a couple of guys would get under a pop-up.  It worked once in a while. 

Basically A-Rod is still a marketable superstar, and the Yankees are going to have plenty of holes in the near future.  It’d be best not to patch them up with more $15MM guys.  James Loney plus Matt Kemp from the Dodgers would be perfect, if Ned Colletti would do it.  Rodriguez would have to waive his no-trade and provide a window for an extension, I imagine.

Such a strategy, however, runs counter to the Roger Clemens signing.  Once Clemens hits the Majors the team will be in full win-now mode, so it’s important to decide whether to trade Rodriguez very soon.

Yanks Could Ditch Clemens

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You have probably read by now that Roger Clemens’s massive 2007 salary is not guaranteed, and the Yankees still have the option of walking away.  Brian Cashman says he’s not thinking about it right now, but surely the idea has crossed his mind.

The Rocket hopes to overcome his "fatigued groin" and make his season debut on Saturday against the Bucs.  That injury offers all kinds of dirty jokes but I’ll resist for now.  Back to the situation at hand – should the Yanks be backing out of this while they still can? 

The value of a player certainly hinges on his ability to push a team into a playoff berth.  The $4.6MM a month for Clemens can almost be justified if it’s getting the Yanks over the hump.  At fourth place and 12.5 games behind the Yankees, a division title is out.  They’re seven games out of the wild card, but need to leapfrog seven teams.  Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA think the Yankees still have a 22% chance of making the playoffs. 

Pitching, particularly starting pitching, remains a clear need.  If Clemens gives them a 3.80 ERA and Mussina rights the ship, they’ll have four solid starters.  Phil Hughes can give a boost in August.  On the offensive side, Cano, Damon, and Abreu have all been underachieving.  If a few of those guys can pick it up, the offense could rival the Red Sox for the balance of the season. 

There is definitely enough promise with this club to stick with the Clemens plan.

Kenny Williams Loves Aaron Rowand

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Several years ago, Billy Beane described Erubiel Durazo as his "Holy Grail".  Beane had been in pursuit of the young slugger, coveting his plate discipline and projecting him as a middle-of-the-order type for the A’s lineup.

At this point, White Sox general manager Kenny Williams’ pursuit of Aaron Rowand is beginning to reach similar status.  From Phil Rodgers in the Chicago Tribune:

If the Phillies are willing to try to get Mike MacDougal straightened out, the reliever could be a centerpiece in a White Sox deal for Aaron Rowand. The Phillies desperately need bullpen help and are letting teams know Rowand could be available in the right deal. The speedy Michael Bourn seems ready to move into a regular role in Philadelphia’s outfield.

The outfield is one of the few places the Phillies actually have some depth/interchangeable parts, and with Aaron Rowand’s average hovering around .325 for most of the season so far, the Phillies may be thinking it’s time to "sell high" on the centerfielder.

However, it isn’t Michael Bourn who would take over in center, more likely Shane Victorino would shift to centerfield while Greg Dobbs and Jayson Werth would probably platoon in rightfield.  Bourn shows promise but right now, he is still too raw for anything more than Pat Burrell’s caddy for late-inning defensive/pinch-running and the occasional start.  Really, he would be better off playing in AAA everyday and honing his skills on a regular basis.

Having said that, it will probably take a little more than Mike MacDougal to get things done in a deal like this.  A slumping middle-reliever for a streaking everyday player isn’t very even.

Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere". Recently, he teamed up with his brother to launch Roto Front Office.

Abreu For Dye Swap Still Alive

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Ken Rosenthal’s recent report indicated that the Jermaine Dye for Bobby Abreu talks had cooled over the last week or so.  However, Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times indicated today that this deal "has started to take some life."

Read the article, and you’ll find some quotes from Dye that apparently have annoyed the White Sox.  Personally I think his comments are just fine.  Basically he says that he will play hard for any team, and that swapping him for another veteran won’t ignite the Sox.  Who can disagree with that?  Would Abreu really spark the Sox?

The last time the Sox made a challenge trade like this, if I recall correctly, was the Esteban Loaiza for Jose Contreras swap, also with the Yankees.  That occurred at the 2004 trading deadline, and worked out quite well for the Sox.

I don’t like this trade for Chicago though.  Despite his struggles, Dye is on a 30 homer pace.  And the $16MM option on Abreu next year – that’s only appealing if he’s an All-Star for the White Sox.  That’s hard to picture given what we’ve seen, but maybe Greg Walker has ideas on how to fix him.

It should also be noted that the Giants have been scouting the White Sox recently, and could look to acquire Dye or others.

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