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Archives for June 2007

Rosenthal’s Latest Video

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Ken Rosenthal reeled off a slew of sweet trade rumors in a couple of videos today, which you can watch at FOXSports.  Let’s discuss.

  • Rosenthal says the Cubs won’t trade Carlos Zambrano unless they fall out of contention or the big righty requests a trade.  Rosenthal finds neither scenario likely.  He says Zambrano still has a good relationship with Jim Hendry, and the Cubs still intend to sign him.  The contract remains on hold.  Interesting, but not surprising to see that the Cubs are still veering towards this mistake after what we’ve seen this year.
  • Lots of good Jermaine Dye stuff from Rosenthal.  About ten days ago, the White Sox kicked around the idea of sending Dye to the Yankees for Bobby Abreu.  The Yanks covet Dye’s right-handed power, and Ozzie loves Abreu, his countryman.  Rosenthal says the White Sox like the option of keeping Abreu for $16MM in ’08 if they so choose.  That option comes with a $2MM buyout attached.  The Dye/Abreu swap may be on hold because Dye is finally showing some signs of life.  I have to be honest – I don’t understand the timeline here.  If the Sox were considering this ten days ago, nothing Dye has done since should have changed their thinking.
  • Other suitors for Dye: the Padres or Dodgers.  The two NL West competitors rank 10th and 12th in the league in slugging, respectively.  No doubt the Dodgers have the goods, but what reasonable trade could the Padres work out?  Kenny Williams and Kevin Towers have matched up twice before, but on minor trades involving guys like D’Angelo Jimenez and Geoff Blum.
  • Rosenthal says the Padres are also eyeing Adam Dunn, for whom their pitchers’ ballpark would present less of an obstacle.  Two hitches: Dunn can become a free agent after this season if he’s traded, and the Reds will ask for a lot.  The Padres’ best pitching prospect, Cesar Carrillo, recently had Tommy John surgery.  Their best hitting prospect, Cedric Hunter, is trying to figure out Low A ball.  Third baseman Chase Headley is hitting well in Double A, and I’m sure plenty of teams would like to have him.  Headley is somewhat blocked by Kevin Kouzmanoff.  Honestly, though, the Padres don’t have much in the minors to trade.  At the Major League level, they might be able to part with Cla Meredith and get a decent hitter in return. 

Time To Trade Johnny Damon?

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Bob Klapisch raises a possibility I haven’t seen yet: should the Yankees start shopping center fielder Johnny Damon?

Damon is earning $13MM annually through 2009, and has a partial no-trade clause.  His age 33 season has been a disappointment so far; he’s hitting .259/.363/.364.  His flyball rate is down from 40% to 32%; that might have something to do with it. 

Damon was supposed to enter the 2007 season in good health, with a broken foot bone healed and his shoulder 100%.  However, he began the regular season with cramps in his calves.  That developed into a strain, and then hamstring and back problems surfaced in late April.  Jason Giambi’s injury will give the Yankees a chance to DH Damon, but it really seems like he needs to rest for two weeks on the DL.

Trading Damon would not be easy right now, and would qualify as selling low.  The Yankees would probably have to eat some of his salary.  I really can’t think of a club that would make sense though.  I’d suggest the White Sox, but they seem too thrilled with Darin Erstad.

 

Angels To Pass On A-Rod?

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ESPN recently interviewed Angels owner Arte Moreno, who speculates that Alex Rodriguez may be looking for a $200MM contract.  Moreno’s subsequent argument on why he wouldn’t pick up that tab is suspect.

Moreno believes that since Vladimir Guerrero is one of the best players in baseball and Vlad’s contract had an average annual value of only $14MM, signing A-Rod at $25MM+ would disrespect Guerrero and his teammates.  Dan Weber points out that the Halos offered Alfonso Soriano almost $17MM annually…was that disrespectful also?  What about Garret Anderson making only $2.5MM less than Vlad? 

The reality is that the market was different when the Angels signed Guerrero.  He was signed in January of 2004 to the five-year, $70MM pact.  In this day and age, that’s a monstrous bargain.  A 27 year-old Miguel Tejada would get more than $12MM annually if he signed next winter.  I don’t buy the disrespect argument.  If Rodriguez is overpriced, just leave it at that and don’t sign him. 

Cardinal Trade Rumor Roundup

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My apologies for posting some rumors from a few days ago; I’m still catching up.  Today’s let’s look at some recent Cardinals trade rumors.

The first question is whether the team should conduct some form of a fire sale.  Right now, they’re still mired in the NL Central race at 6.5 games out.  But if the team does spiral out of contention by July 31st, it might make sense to trade Jason Isringhausen.  He’s probably their best trading chip.  Cards beat writer Joe Strauss mentions the Braves, Indians, and Cubs as teams that would have interest in the 34 year-old closer.  After Izzy was nearly left for dead/retired in ’06, he’s bounced back with 13 saves in the season’s first two months.  He makes $8.75MM this year with an $8MM club option for ’08.  That includes a $1.25MM buyout. 

The Isringhausen trade option represents the worst case scenario.  Let’s consider what the Cardinals might do to improve in the short term.  Catcher Yadier Molina should be sidelined for at least a month with a broken wrist.  One option is Royals catcher Jason LaRue, who’s owed about $1.65MM on the season by KC.  The one concern is that LaRue is 7 for 57 on the season, and didn’t hit at all last year.  At 33, he may have to permanently join the Brotherhood of Backup Catchers, if he hasn’t already.  Yadier’s brother Jose may be an option as well.

Also on the radar: comeback kid Troy Percival.  The Cards will watch him throw, if they haven’t already.  St. Louis joins roughly a half-dozen teams in the Percival pursuit.  More than that, if you add the Giants and A’s to the mix. 

Rangers Pursued Bonds

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Fairly odd story about Barry Bonds’s rich friends in USA Today yesterday.  I suppose it’s not a bad thing to see a positive angle for a much-maligned player. 

There was one interesting, rumor-related part – Bonds was close to signing with a mystery club last winter, and it was the Rangers.  Maybe this kind of "outside the box" thinking by Jon Daniels could result in a trade for Jason Giambi, or comebacks for Rafael Palmeiro and Juan Gonzalez.  Let’s be honest – teams only care about steroid use to the extent that it gives them bad PR or wasted dollars.  I forget where I read it but it does seem strange that Sammy Sosa’s 600th home run is being viewed in a positive light but Barry’s quest for 756 is the opposite.  If Sammy passes Willie Mays in two or three more years, will baseball celebrate?

Anyway, back to the Rangers rumor.  I vaguely remember the Bonds/Mystery Team thing last winter, but thought it was made up by his agent.  We got swept up in the Mystery Team phenomenon with studs like Steve Trachsel and Tomo Ohka last winter as well. In the past two years, we have heard such teams as the Padres, A’s, and Cardinals connected to Bonds.  The Cards seemed like the Mystery Team for a few hours, but Walt Jocketty quickly denied it.

Barrett, Zambrano Have It Out

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This is going to have trade implications.  You may have seen the video of Carlos Zambrano and Michael Barrett having something of a slap fight in the Cubs’ dugout today.  Something to do with a Barrett passed ball; it seems that Zambrano may have been truly ignited when Barrett gestured to the scoreboard, perhaps reminding Zambrano of the seven runs he allowed.

If the extent of it was the dugout scuffle, this would be something that could blow over.  However, the fighting spilled over to the locker room.  Lou Piniella mentions in his press conference that Barrett was sent to the hospital for a busted lip.  CubDumb, a source I trust for inside Cubs info, has found Barrett’s injuries to be far worse than a split lip.  As they say, Barrett probably wouldn’t go to the hospital for that.  If the 255 lb. Zambrano really gave Barrett a frighteningly severe beating in the locker room, he probably punched his ticket out of Chicago.

Both players are free agents after this season, and it’s certainly possible the Cubs retain neither.  Zambrano’s five-year, $85MM or so extension was tabled in April, not a bad move for the Cubs.  I don’t think Zambrano is all the sudden a worthless pitcher, but I still think his best years are behind him.  Despite his struggles, Jim Hendry could get a very useful young player or two for him this July.

Barrett’s future is in doubt, as no one as ever been thrilled with his defense or handling of the pitching staff.  I think these aspects are typically overplayed in the media, and that a catcher who hits well is worth it.  The biggest problem with trading him or letting him walk is that the Cubs have no one to replace him and the free agent market is bleak.  The Blue Jays have had interest in Barrett in the past, but are not in a position to acquire a player in his walk year.   

Bonus random thought: I do not want to see newspaper columnists continue to say the Cubs are third in the league in "hitting" because they have a .266 team batting average.  Here in 2007, we know that batting average is just a subset of on-base percentage, for which the Cubs rank eighth.  They are eighth in OBP, seventh in slugging.  Their offense has been right in the middle of the pack.

The A-Rod Story

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The tabloid stuff involving Alex Rodriguez really doesn’t deserve any more press than it’s already gotten, so I’ll keep it brief.  I should point out that Stray-Rod has already been suggested in the comments of this post.

It’s tough to call Rodriguez’s next team, as I imagine he wants to get out of the limelight but play for a contender.  The thing is, small market teams don’t typically shell out $200MM contracts.  The Indians or White Sox seem like decent fits.  Chicago media probably wouldn’t put that kind of pressure on Rodriguez’s personal life, though I wouldn’t put it past the Sun-Times.

Barry Rozner likes the fit with the Angels over the Chicago clubs.

 

Article On Boras

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Came across an article on Scott Boras, via Will Caroll.  One quote from Boras struck me:

The Cardinals not signing Jeff Weaver is how you don’t win divisions, and my prediction is the St. Louis Cardinals won’t win their division this year.

I can see the Cards missing the playoffs, sure, but not signing Jeff Weaver for $8 million won’t be the reason.  Now if you want to argue that if the Cardinals had signed Weaver, they’d be in last place instead of fourth and in line for a better draft pick in ’08, I can buy that.  Boras should’ve went with that.

Another interesting section is the last page, where Boras proposes replacing the World Series with a nine game series in a different city each year.  Cities would compete for the right to host it.  That’s kind of cool.

More Teixeira Talk

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It seems that the hot topic this summer will be Mark Teixeira and a possible trade.  This could end up another Alfonso Soriano/A.J. Burnett situation, where there’s tons of words wasted but no deal.

Buster Olney believes the Rangers will get some "tepid offers," with no team willing to pony up top prospects.  He also mentions that the Yankees have little to no interest in getting involved.  Though I think that could change if Brian Cashman is pushed out of power.

Teixeira makes $9MM this year, and could make $14MM or so in arbitration for 2008.  As a Boras client, you know he’ll hit the open market after that.  So if you trade for him, you’re basically getting 1.7 seasons of Teixeira for $20MM or so.

He’s an above average hitter, no one can argue that.  An average first baseman will post an .800 OPS, while Teixeira should be around .900.  The Tigers, Braves, Dodgers, and Orioles are all contenders with a weakness at first base.  Maybe no one is shelling out two top shelf prospects/young players, but some team should at least come up with one.  I still like a Daniel Cabrera for Teixeira swap.  Cabrera, while young and inconsistent, keeps the ball on the ground and at least has the potential of bringing fair value.  His 2007 walk rate, while still a problem, is easily the best of his career.   

Not sure if the Braves would give up Salty for Tex, but I imagine Jon Daniels would be receptive.  The Dodgers could give up one solid guy, maybe a James Loney.  The Tigers might be able to solve their problem simply by playing Marcus Thames at first every day.  Who says he can’t post an .850 OPS?

Stark’s Latest

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Hey everybody, I’m back from my trip.  I hope you enjoyed the posts from Tom and Jeff in the meantime.  California was actually colder than Chicago is right now, go figure.

Jayson Stark had a new column up at ESPN.com yesterday; let’s dissect the trade rumors.

  • Stark quotes scouts doubting whether Miguel Tejada’s power will ever return.  Over the last year and a half or so, the Orioles had all sorts of young players they could’ve acquired for Tejada.  Names like Felix Pie, Rich Hill, Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Sweeney, Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar have surfaced before.  Tejada earns $12MM this year, $13MM in ’08, and another $13MM in ’09.  That doesn’t sound too bad but one more year of declining power might change my opinion.
  • Seems the D-Rays would like to trade Elijah Dukes for a solid reliever.  A few teams might bow out because of Dukes’ past, but in my experience most don’t care.  I could see a match with the Padres, as they will need a center fielder if Mike Cameron leaves.
  • Stark says the hottest free agent could be "30 year-old Chunichi Dragons center fielder Kosuke Fukudome, who will be an unrestricted free agent."  I have learned from Mike Plugh that Fukudome is best in right field, but might be able to get by in center.  Plugh thinks Fukudome will get $12-15MM annually for three or four seasons.  Will Carroll has connected the Red Sox to Fukudome, while Phil Rogers suggested the Cubs.  This is going to be one of the bigger stories of the winter, I think.

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