Will Clemens Play In ’08?
The tolerance for Roger Clemens‘ annual "will he, won’t he" saga will be much lower this year in the wake of the steroid mess. But the fact remains that we still don’t know whether he’ll try to play.
Buster Olney devotes a portion of today’s blog to this question. He thinks it’s in Clemens’ nature to defiantly keep pitching. Olney says Clemens’ friends indicate he’d only pitch for Houston. Olney speculates that the Cardinals might be one other club that would consider it. He could certainly help either team if he came with a price tag below $10MM.
In case you were wondering, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system sees the Rocket posting a 4.43 ERA in 107 innings this year (in the AL East it seems). Somewhat related fact: Clemens appears in Joba Chamberlain‘s comparables list.
Jim Bowden Trade Profile (Nationals)
A week ago, Mike Glab weighed in on Jim Bowden’s tenure as Reds’ GM. Today, he takes on Bowden’s trade work with the Nationals below.
At last, Jim Bowden will be working in a relatively stable environment in Washington. Ownership issues are settled, his title is no longer qualified by the interim tag and the Nats open their new ballpark in March.
Bowden’s taking a different tack in opening a stadium this time around. Last time, when the Reds were gearing up to open Great American Ballpark, Bowden shot for the moon in 2000 and traded for Ken Griffey, Jr. hoping the superstar would lead the team to glory just as the new place opened its doors in 2003. Sadly, the plan flopped and Bowden was canned midway through GAB’s inaugural season.
This time, though, Bowden seems to be going in the opposite direction. That is, accumulating young, unproven phenoms to populate a roster that last year lost 89 games and avoided the cellar by a mere two games. During the off-season, Bowden snared outfielders Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge as well as beanpole righthanded pitcher Tyler Clippard, none of them older than 23. Only Paul Lo Duca, Aaron Boone and Dmitri Young on the 40-man roster have reached their mid-30s. Clearly, Bowden hopes the new facility will draw fans while the young players gel.
Now, working without Marge Scott breathing down his neck nor being saddled with an orphaned organization, Bowden will show us what he’s got.
Like any good GM, Bowden caught lightning in a bottle last year with the late-career resurgence of Young. The first baseman put up some decent numbers in the hitters’ mausoleum that was RFK Stadium. Nationals Park can’t help but be a better environment for offense and Bowden showed faith in Young by rewarding him with a $10M, two-year contract. The pact won’t be the albatross Griffey’s deal was for the Reds; Bowden will have some financial latitude to tweak or even remake his roster if needed.
Bowden’s made 29 deals since taking over the Nats in early November 2004 (Download nats_trades_under_bowden.xls here). He hasn’t shown any tendency to favor one opposition GM over another in his second go-round running a team. He has made three deals with Boston’s Theo Epstein and two each with the Giants’ Brian Sabean, the Rockies’ Dan O’Dowd, the Brewers’ Doug Melvin and the Snakes’ Josh Byrnes. The O’Dowd swaps are a continuation of a favorite relationship initiated when Bowden was in Cincy.
He’s spent a lot of time ridding the Nats roster of ancient or no-longer bankable names like Tomo Ohka and Royce Clayton as well as players who had a little bit left in the tank but were of no value to a perpetually rebuilding team. These included Jose Vidro, Livan Hernandez and Daryle Ward.
As in Cincinnati, Bowden split his deals almost equally between leagues and favored doing business with the National League West and the American League East.
His biggest trade, for Alfonso Soriano, could be construed as being in the vein of the Griffey deal. Bowden hooked up with Jon Daniels of the Rangers in December 2005 to bring Soriano to Washington for his walk year in exchange for the youngish Brad Wilkerson and Terrmel Sledge as well as Armando Galarraga. Bowden made noises indicating he’d like to sign Soriano long-term although nobody but a fool would’ve bet Washington could win a bidding war for him. After losing Soriano in the fall of 2006, the Nats selected pitchers Josh Smoker and Jordan Zimmerman in last year’s amateur draft as compensation.
The entire Soriano experience may reveal more about the presence of Stan Kasten as the Nats president than Bowden’s acumen. Bowden swung the deal with Daniels before Kasten was hired by Washington. Kasten has made it clear his team won’t be backed into a gargantuan no-trade deal, which is precisely what Soriano received on the open market.
Bowden got himself into hot water with the one trade he has made with his old club. In July 2006, Bowden shipped a package of five players to his Cincinnati successor, Wayne Krivsky, for Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez and Ryan Wagner. Soon after the trade, Krivsky learned that one of the pitchers Bowden had sent over, Gary Majewski, had been given a cortisone shot in his pitching shoulder prior to the deal. Krivsky filed a grievance with MLB, claiming Majewski was damaged goods. Each of the two GMs exchanged charges in the media that the other was playing fast and loose. “It’s in the hands of our lawyers,” Krivsky told ESPN. The case is still being decided as of this late date. It’s a safe bet, though, that Krivsky and Bowden won’t be doing much business together for the foreseeable future.
Looking at Bowden’s overall record, including 10 ½ years with the Reds and three and a half with Washington, it’s hard to ascertain if he’s a miracle worker or a bum. Cincinnati almost won a division title in the strike year, 1994 and did win the demi-flag the next year. The Reds spent seven years in the upper half of their division during his term and four years in the bottom half. The Nats under Bowden have done nothing but fight for last place. Of course, the Nats under a brain trust of Branch Rickey, Dave Dombrowski and Albert Einstein wouldn’t have done much better.
It’s likely that Bowden is a middling GM, one who won’t single-handedly destroy a team but who probably can’t raise the dead either. The Nats right now are the dead. It’s Bowden’s moment to discover if he has a magic touch.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Barry Bonds
He has 762 home runs and 7 MVPs. In 2007, he hit 28 home runs in only 126 games and posted a 170 OPS+, which would have led the NL if he had not come up 27 plate appearances short of qualifying. Still, Barry Bonds is without a job for 2008. Some would argue it is because he is 43 years and has bad knees that limit him to DH duty. Others would say it is because he is an unwanted distraction. Some are even beginning to whisper that Bonds is being blackballed by baseball…The Cardinals and the A’s have been linked to Bonds. The Padres were rumored to be in the mix, but publicly have said they are not interested. Marc Topkin wondered if the Rays would be interested, which seems unlikely as the Rays just traded Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young in part because they were headaches. The latest rumor has Bonds possibly playing in Japan in 2008. Could the enticement of setting another home run record convince Bonds to head to the land of the rising sun? With camps in full-swing and Bonds recliner still without a home, let’s take a look at what is being said about Bonds in the Blogosphere…If you think there is a team that is the perfect fit for Bonds in 2008 let us know in the comments.
If there is a topic you would like to see covered in "Baseball Blogs Weigh In" please let me know HERE.
- Giants Cove is willing to admit that the Giants chemistry will be better in 2008, but there is one glaring problem with the new found chemistry. The Giants cleanup hitter will be Bengie Molina.
- Athletics Nation notes that signing Bonds would be a smart business decision for the A’s.
- Catfish Stew wonders if A’s fans will be just as hard on Jack Cust, who was named in the Mitchell Report as they say they will be on Bonds if he signs with Oakland.
- Yankees Chick finds it curious that so many Yankees fans are clamoring for the Bombers to sign Bonds.
- Rays of Light notes that baggage aside, DH is already crowded for the Rays with Cliff Floyd, Jonny Gomes and Rocco Baldelli sharing at bats.
- Metstradamus feels that the chances of the Mets signing Bonds to play the outfield are about 2,000,000 to 1.
- Gaslamp Ball is not surprised the Padres passed on Bonds, noting that San Diego is where the giant syringe was thrown at Bonds during a game.
- Babes Love Baseball can’t understand why Bonds is without a job, but they understand he comes with a bit of a circus and the occasional ‘booing’.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Barry Bonds
He has 762 home runs and 7 MVPs. In 2007, he hit 28 home runs in only 126 games and posted a 170 OPS+, which would have led the NL if he had not come up 27 plate appearances short of qualifying. Still, Barry Bonds is without a job for 2008. Some would argue it is because he is 43 years and has bad knees that limit him to DH duty. Others would say it is because he is an unwanted distraction. Some are even beginning to whisper that Bonds is being blackballed by baseball…The Cardinals and the A’s have been linked to Bonds. The Padres were rumored to be in the mix, but publicly have said they are not interested. Marc Topkin wondered if the Rays would be interested, which seems unlikely as the Rays just traded Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young in part because they were headaches. The latest rumor has Bonds possibly playing in Japan in 2008. Could the enticement of setting another home run record convince Bonds to head to the land of the rising sun? With camps in full-swing and Bonds recliner still without a home, let’s take a look at what is being said about Bonds in the Blogosphere…If you think there is a team that is the perfect fit for Bonds in 2008 let us know in the comments.
If there is a topic you would like to see covered in "Baseball Blogs Weigh In" please let me know HERE.
- Giants Cove is willing to admit that the Giants chemistry will be better in 2008, but there is one glaring problem with the new found chemistry. The Giants cleanup hitter will be Benjie Molina.
- Athletics Nation notes that signing Bonds would be a smart business decision for the A’s.
- Catfish Stew wonders if A’s fans will be just as hard on Jack Cust, who was named in the Mitchell Report as they say they will be on Bonds if he signs with Oakland.
- Yankees Chick finds it curious that so many Yankees fans are clamoring for the Bombers to sign Bonds.
- Rays of Light notes that baggage aside, DH is already crowded for the Rays with Cliff Floyd, Jonny Gomes and Rocco Baldelli sharing at bats.
- Metstradamus feels that the chances of the Mets signing Bonds to play the outfield are about 2,000,000 to 1.
- Gaslamp Ball
is not surprised the Padres passed on Bonds, noting that San Diego is
where the giant syringe was thrown at Bonds during a game. - Babes Love Baseball can’t understand why Bonds is without a job, but they understand he comes with a bit of a circus and the occasional ‘booing’.
K-Rod Loses Case
According to Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times, Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez lost his arbitration case. He’ll make $10MM rather than the $12.5MM he wanted.
K-Rod might be looking for something like $50MM over four years when he reaches free agency after the season, which would be a record amount for a reliever. Angels owner Arte Moreno won’t close the door on him, and notes that the Angels have tried a couple of times to sign their closer.
Oliver Perez Wins Case
Chalk another one up for the players; Oliver Perez beat the Mets in his arbitration hearing. He’ll get $6.5MM rather than $4.725MM. This decision shouldn’t really affect Perez’s next contract much. He’s a Boras-represented free agent. If he has a big year, he could get $13-15MM annually on his next deal.
It’s funny that you mention the 2009 free agent class. I just touched up my list.
Odds and Ends: El Duque, Rays, Botts, Cruz
Today’s linkage…
- RotoAuthority tries to decide what to do with the fourth pick in a fantasy draft.
- The rumor about the Royals moving to the NL seems unfounded.
- Sean McAdam says the Red Sox will keep an eye on the free agent pitching market, but don’t intend to spend much.
- El Duque has all sorts of problems, which I won’t go into. Maybe he’s just down on his luck, but he indicated a 50/50 chance of this being his last season. He’ll earn $6.5MM, and PECOTA calls for a 4.08 ERA in 98 innings.
- DRays Bay talked to team owner Stu Sternberg. Sternberg mentioned that he reads Rays Index, the blog of MLBTR contributor Cork Gaines.
- Evan Grant compares Rangers Jason Botts and Nelson Cruz, one of whom will not be with the team by Opening Day. They are among many on our Out of Options – 2008 list, which is growing by the hour.
Ryan Howard Fallout
Ryan Howard winning a $10MM salary yesterday was kind of a big deal. Let’s examine this first-year arbitration record.
- A source of Jayson Stark’s thinks the Phillies would’ve won had they submitted above Miguel Cabrera’s $7.4MM. Seems that even slightly above would’ve done it, because then Howard losing would’ve still set a record.
- Tom Haudricourt talks about how Prince Fielder is now in line for the same $10MM for his ’09 salary. And he doesn’t see Scott Boras relenting and doing a multiyear deal. Stark adds Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, and Hanley Ramirez as other young stars who will be affected. Zimmerman, arbitration-eligible after ’08, will be renewed for ’07.
- It doesn’t sound like the Phillies will sign Howard long-term, in part because there is no precedent. There is talk of $200MM, something no one expects of the Phils. On the plus side, Howard is theirs for the 2008-11 seasons. They may have to keep giving him record-breaking salaries though. A trade is a strong option before he hits free agency, but that’s a ways off.
- Jim Salisbury thinks Howard’s win might result in another monster year. He expects the Phils to eventually at least talk about a multiyear deal with Howard (maybe once the sting wears off).
Out Of Options – 2008
Rob Neyer sums up what it means to be "out of options" in his classic Transactions Primer:
When you hear that a player is "out of options," that means he’s been on the 40-man roster during three different seasons, beginning with his fourth as a pro, and to be sent down again he’ll have to clear waivers.
Readers often ask me where to find a list of players who are out of options. If such a list is publicly available, I don’t know where to find it. With your help, let’s compile that list here. Please leave links in the comments if you can help fill in the gaps.
Updated 3-20-08 at 12:21pm CST.
Athletics – Dan Johnson, Andrew Brown, Santiago Casilla, Rob Bowen, Donnie Murphy
Angels – Nathan Haynes, Chris Bootcheck
Astros – Reggie Abercrombie, Humberto Quintero
Blue Jays –
Braves – Blaine Boyer, Chris Resop, Royce Ring, Scott Thorman, Brayan Pena, Tyler Yates
Brewers – Gabe Gross
Cardinals – Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick
Cubs – Ronny Cedeno, Geovany Soto, Angel Guzman
Diamondbacks – Dustin Nippert, Brandon Medders, Edgar Gonzalez
Dodgers – Hong-Chih Kuo, Delwyn Young
Giants – Rajai Davis, Fred Lewis, Erick Threets, Merkin Valdez
Indians – Andy Marte, Shin-Soo Choo, Franklin Gutierrez
Mariners – Mike Morse, Cha Seung Baek, Jake Woods, Charlton Jimerson
Marlins –
Mets – Ruben Gotay
Nationals – Joel Hanrahan
Orioles – Guillermo Quiroz, Luis Hernandez, Dennis Sarfate
Padres – Paul McAnulty
Phillies – Clay Condrey, Greg Dobbs, Chad Durbin, J.D. Durbin, John Ennis, Chris Snelling, So Taguchi, Jayson Werth
Pirates –
Rangers – Robinson Tejeda, John Rheinecker, Jason Botts, Nelson Cruz
Rays – Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel, Carlos Pena, Jonny Gomes, Gary Glover, Scott Dohmann, Willy Aybar
Red Sox – David Aardsma, Kyle Snyder, Craig Breslow, Bryan Corey
Rockies – Jeff Baker, Jayson Nix, Clint Barmes
Twins – Brian Bass, Carmen Cali, Boof Bonser, Garrett Jones
White Sox – Nick Masset, Gavin Floyd
Yankees – Sean Henn, Wilson Betemit
Rumor Royalty: Geoff Baker
Geoff Baker is our Rumor Royalty recipient for the Mariners. He covers the team’s beat for the Seattle Times. He also keeps a blog here.
Geoff has kindly agreed to answer some questions for MLBTR readers. Please leave your Mariners hot stove queries in the comments and I’ll choose my favorites.