The Starting Pitching Market Revisited
We’ve been updating our Trade Market series position by position, but today’s let’s jump ahead to the starting pitchers. After all, pitching is always in high demand. By the way – not all of the pitchers below are available. I just wanted to discuss them.
- Justin Duchscherer, Athletics. Duke is leading all of baseball with a 1.78 ERA in 101 innings. He is under team control for ’09, and Billy Beane wants to wait until after the season to talk extension. He’d be a very interesting trade chip.
- Zack Greinke, Royals. Despite interest, the Royals "remain decidedly uninterested in moving Greinke," according to Ken Rosenthal.
- Derek Lowe, Dodgers. The Phillies are interested, but the Dodgers are tied for first place right now. Trading Lowe makes no sense.
- Edwin Jackson, Rays. Jackson is starting to put it together, with a 3.93 ERA in 110 innings. Trading Jackson or Andy Sonnanstine to make room for rookie David Price seems unlikely.
- Daniel Cabrera, Orioles. Cabrera is having his best year, averaging over 6.5 innings per start by sacrificing his strikeout rate. The O’s control him through 2010, so they’ll probably opt to hold onto him.
- Odalis Perez, Nationals. Perez has a surprising 3.66 ERA in 83.6 innings, making him a quality trade piece for Jim Bowden. He did have shoulder tendinitis earlier this year though.
- Tim Redding, Nationals. Redding has also been solid, posting a 4.06 ERA in 108.6 innings. The 30 year-old is under team control through 2010.
- Randy Wolf, Padres. Wolf may prefer to stay in San Diego. Home ERA: 2.54. Road ERA: 6.66.
- Greg Maddux, Padres. The Professor shows a similar home/road split, and he has a complete no-trade clause.
- Erik Bedard, Mariners. He’s currently on the DL with a stiff shoulder, but the Phillies could still pursue him. He’s under team control through ’09, but the Mariners won’t get anything close to the package they gave up for him.
- Gil Meche, Royals. Meche and the Royals have been very clear – he’s staying in Kansas City.
- Jason Marquis, Cubs. Marquis is signed at almost $10MM for ’09, so the Cubs might have to eat salary to move him.
- Roy Oswalt, Astros. The Astros’ ace has a full no-trade clause and is expected to stay. He’s signed through 2011. Oswalt has, however, been scouted by several clubs.
- Dave Bush, Brewers. Bush or Seth McClung could be the odd man out when Jeff Suppan comes off the DL, unless Ned Yost opts for a pitching platoon. Most likely, the Brewers will just enjoy the depth.
- Oliver Perez, Mets. The Mets are only two games out, quieting the rumors for now.
- Claudio Vargas, Mets. He quietly passed through waivers unclaimed after the Mets designated him for assignment.
- Joe Blanton, Athletics. Trading Blanton as his ERA approaches 5.00 doesn’t seem wise.
- Jarrod Washburn, Mariners. He’s been decent since June. That’s a nice development for Lee Pelekoudas, who might be able to unload the $10.35MM owed to Washburn in ’09.
- Kevin Millwood, Rangers. His groin is bothering him again, plus the Rangers might not be willing to sell.
- Vicente Padilla, Rangers. Padilla is on the DL with a neck strain, driving his value down further after a couple of rough starts.
- Anthony Reyes, Cardinals. Reyes has a 3.02 ERA in nine starts at Triple A. He needs a fresh start. He just came off the DL after a right elbow strain, however.
- A.J. Burnett, Blue Jays. You know the story with Burnett – enigmatic pitcher with a dangerous opt-out after the season. Some team seems likely to gamble on him for two months.
- Jeff Niemann, Rays. The 25 year-old has a 3.82 ERA in 14 Triple A starts. He’s an interesting trade chip that the Rays won’t miss this year.
- Kei Igawa, Yankees. New York’s favorite lefty has a 3.80 ERA in 16 Triple A starts. He’s signed through 2011 at $4MM a year. Seems that he’d prefer to be back in Japan.
- Brett Myers, Phillies. Myers does not want to be traded, nor is a deal likely.
- Paul Byrd, Indians. He’s been awful since the beginning of June, bringing his ERA to 5.47. Can’t be much of a market for him.
- Homer Bailey, Reds. His value is down, though the Reds will give him a spot start Sunday. Wasn’t long ago that he was Baseball America’s #9 prospect in the game.
- Bronson Arroyo, Reds. His ERA is near 6.00 after 19 starts. It’d be closer to 4.50 if you take out a pair of one-inning thrashings, but is it fair to do that? He’s signed through 2010, and the Phillies might be interested.
- Livan Hernandez, Twins. Would an NL team take him on? Livan had a run of four solid starts until the recent Boston beating. Could be a DFA candidate.
- Josh Fogg, Reds. The Reds aren’t too keen on Fogg, keeping him in the minors even after he was healthy. He could be had for a song.
- Mark Hendrickson, Marlins. He wouldn’t be of much help to a contender.
- Miguel Batista, Mariners. He’s dealing with a groin injury. Beyond that, he has a 6.22 ERA and a $9MM salary next year.
Jays Ready To Throw In The Towel
THURSDAY, 3:15pm: Blair talked to Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi, who admitted he’s yet to have talks with the Phillies about Burnett. But the Jays are scouting the Phillies and other clubs. Ricciardi talked about improving the team for the future, and doesn’t think Burnett’s poor start last night affects his value.
Blair says the Jays are also getting calls on Matt Stairs.
THURSDAY, 11:29am: Terrible news for the Jays – McGowan has a rotator cuff tear. Meanwhile, Burnett has allowed 19 hits and 15 runs in his last two starts.
WEDNESDAY: The Blue Jays are now 12.5 games out in the AL East and 9.5 games out of the wild card. Baseball Prospectus puts their playoff chances at roughly 1%. GM J.P. Ricciardi admitted yesterday that his team’s playoff chances are "probably not good."
Now comes news that starter Dustin McGowan has been pitching with a sore shoulder for several starts. An MRI is scheduled today. Jeff Blair believes a serious injury to McGowan would impact A.J. Burnett‘s availability. I’m not sure exactly what he means by that, but I assume it’d make the Jays more likely to throw in the towel and trade Burnett.
The Phillies seem to be Burnett’s most likely suitor, if they don’t end up getting Erik Bedard. Or maybe the Cardinals will jump into the NL Central arms race and pursue him. The Dodgers are another possibility.
Mariners Release Richie Sexson
In a long-awaited move, the Mariners released first baseman Richie Sexson today. They’ll eat about $6MM in salary for the rest of the year.
Sexson, 33, is hitting .218/.315/.381 in 292 plate appearances this year. Perhaps someone could pick him up as a lefty-masher; he’s fared well against them this year (not so much in 2006-07 though).
Phillies Like Burnett, Lowe
12:58pm: Jeff Blair of The Globe and Mail has details on the Phillies’ pursuit of Burnett. He says the Jays are scouting the Phils’ Double A club, and like Greg Golson, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, and Brad Harman. It seems that Carrasco, Golson, or Marson would have to be in a deal. Blair says the Phillies might try to convince Burnett not to opt out of his contract so he can remain near his Baltimore home for the 2009-10 seasons.
Additionally, the Phillies inquired about Derek Lowe‘s availability with the Dodgers.
11:46am: Pitching and hitting…two things you need to win baseball games. Insightful, eh? The Philles are looking for both – manager Charlie Manuel wants a "blue-chip pitcher" as well as a "good bat."
Pitching is the team’s priority. David Murphy bandies about names like A.J. Burnett, Roy Oswalt, and Erik Bedard. Or the Phillies could look to the B list, like they did last year when they acquired Kyle Lohse. Lohse, by the way, wasn’t a fan of the "B list" comment by Pat Gillick.
So who’s on the ’08 B list? I’ll suggest Bronson Arroyo, Joe Blanton, Boof Bonser, Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf, Jarrod Washburn, Odalis Perez, Jason Marquis, Tim Redding, and Paul Byrd. Most of these guys appeared on my June 4th look at the starting pitching market. I’ll try to revisit that list this afternoon with a fresh post.
On the hitting side, the Phillies don’t have an obvious position to upgrade. Thoughts?
Molony’s Latest: Mahay, Loretta, Erstad, Guzman
Let’s check in with MLB.com’s Jim Molony.
- The Rays are scouting lefty relievers Brian Fuentes and Ron Mahay. The issue? The price for Fuentes seems exorbitant, and Mahay may not be available. Troy E. Renck names the Yankees, Mets, Cardinals, and Marlins as the main suitors for Fuentes aside from the Rays.
- A few contenders have inquired with the Astros as to the availability of Mark Loretta and Darin Erstad.
- As you might imagine, the Rangers are open to trading Frank Catalanotto. We mentioned yesterday that his contract is a bit of a burden.
- It seems that Jim Bowden is listening to offers for Cristian Guzman while also trying to sign him to an extension. From Guzman’s point of view, it might make sense to enter a weak shortstop market this winter.
- The Matt Capps injury apparently affects Damaso Marte‘s availability.
- The Marlins may make Mark Hendrickson available. The big lefty was replaced in the rotation by top prospect Chris Volstad.
Odds and Ends: Taveras, Kemp, Mota
Today’s random linkage.
- Correction to the Justin Duchscherer post – he only has one more arbitration year, not two. He’s set to reach free agency after the ’09 season.
- Rob Neyer points us to a quality interview with Yankees beat writer Tyler Kepner over at NoMaas.org.
- MLB.com’s Jim Molony says the Marlins have renewed interest in Rockies center fielder Willy Taveras.
- LEN3 thinks the Twins need a reliever more than anything.
- Dave Cameron wonders if Matt Kemp is overrated.
- Craig Brown of Royals Authority examines the team’s trade candidates.
- The Padres’ Paul DePodesta runs through his team’s top trade candidates as well as general considerations in trading.
- The Dodgers are close to signing their first-round pick, Ethan Martin.
- Oscar Villarreal refused the Astros’ assignment to the minors and may be released. Also at this link, the Astros have an offer out to first round pick Jason Castro.
- The Indians signed Bryan Bullington, the Pirates’ first overall pick in ’02.
More On Harden, Sabathia Trades
I’ve got some odds and ends related to the Rich Harden and CC Sabathia trades.
- The Cub Reporter had an interesting post yesterday, stating that Harden can demand a trade after this season under the old CBA. The Cubs could always sidestep that by declining Harden’s $7MM option and going through the arbitration process with him. I ran this by a source close to the situation, and he said the Cubs are not worried about Harden demanding a trade.
- Bruce Miles talks about the "great personal and working relationship" between GMs Jim Hendry and Billy Beane.
- Susan Slusser says Beane never inquired on the Cubs’ top draft pick from 2007, third baseman Josh Vitters. She says the A’s did not consider it appropriate to ask for a player they had no chance of getting.
- Slusser adds that "there is thought among other clubs that the A’s might deal Matt Murton or Eric Patterson."
- Authors at the Hardball Times did a roundtable about both trades.
- Squawking Baseball praises Beane’s boldness.
- The Royals spoke internally about Sabathia, but it never got to the point of a discussion with the Indians.
La Russa Pushing For Additions
Cardinals GM John Mozeliak does not want to make a reactionary move to counter the recent CC Sabathia and Rich Harden trades. He’s suggested that the returns of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright would match those deals.
Manager Tony La Russa doesn’t agree, and he suggested publicly that Mozeliak needs to improve the club. The needs: a bat to protect Albert Pujols, a lefty reliever, and starting pitching (apparently in that order). Mozeliak responded to La Russa’s comments, saying that he doesn’t want to make a move that could hurt the team two to four years in the future.
As always, Viva El Birdos does a fine job dissecting the possibilities. Larry Borowsky suggests several names he’d like to see: Milton Bradley, Ryan Spilborghs, Rich Aurilia, Randy Wolf, and A.J. Burnett. Aurilia, Wolf, and Burnett are the most likely to be traded, in my opinion. On the lefty reliever front, the Cards are one of nine teams linked to Brian Fuentes.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Sabathia, Burnett, Fuentes, Guillen
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up. I updated the second bullet about Burnett – I had omitted an interesting rumor accidentally.
- The Dodgers could’ve gotten CC Sabathia, Casey Blake, and Jamey Carroll without giving up Matt Kemp. Owner Frank McCourt may have killed the deal, though he denies it. Rosenthal describes the Dodgers as a "near-impossible trading partner."
- Rosenthal reminds us that A.J. Burnett can veto trades to 15 teams and would probably require compensation to waive that right or his opt-out rights. Rosenthal also says the Jays offered Burnett to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy, but the Brewers passed and then acquired CC Sabathia.
- The Rays are named as the frontrunner for Brian Fuentes. Fuentes has been linked to nine clubs in various reports.
- Players such as Orlando Cabrera, Cristian Guzman, Jack Wilson, and Hardy may be hot commodities this winter given the large number of teams looking for a shortstop.
- The Royals received inquiries on Jose Guillen in the wake of his scuffle with the team’s pitching coach. However, the Royals plan to keep him.
- The Padres hope to acquire up-the-middle players. On a related note, Randy Wolf had a nice start last night.
D’Backs Not Interested In Bonds
WEDNESDAY, 7:43pm: Magruder talked to Bonds’ agent, Jeff Borris. Borris says the D’Backs have never had interest in Bonds, based on conversations with the team. However, Bonds would love to play for them. Borris says he could be ready to go in a week to ten days.
WEDNESDAY, 9:17am: Jack Magruder takes this rumor a step further, saying the D’Backs have had internal discussions about Bonds.
TUESDAY: It seems that D’Backs outfielder Eric Byrnes is out for the season. The team could certainly continue to get by with Conor Jackson in left field and Chad Tracy at first. Or, they could just pick up a lefty-masher on the cheap to complement Tracy.
GM Josh Byrnes admits he’s looking at outside options, and seems to crave more than a platoon bat to give the offense a jolt. When asked about Barry Bonds, Byrnes responded:
He and maybe a couple of others are sort of sitting out there. I think it’s a bit of assessing any players’ readiness, then knocking somebody out of the lineup, dollars, etc. I don’t want to talk about him specifically, but, believe me, we’ve considered a lot of options. There is sort of no one obvious option right now, but there are a lot of considerations.
Maybe we’re reaching, but this is the closest we’ve seen to consideration of Bonds in a long time. Piecoro believes Bonds has been discussed. Piecoro tosses out Kenny Lofton as another option. The D’Backs could also consider some of the same corner outfielders I named for the Mets – Adam Dunn, for example. Will Carroll on the Dunn-to-AZ idea: Dunn would be a great fit in Arizona, but no one seems to think that’s going to happen.