Rosenthal’s Latest: Vlad, Cano, Peavy, Hardy
Today we have a fresh column from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
- Vladimir Guerrero‘s $15MM option for ’09 is a lock, but perhaps the Angels will reconsider extending him beyond that. Some of the money could be used to make Mark Teixeira the next franchise player.
- Rosenthal says "virtually every club with a need at the position" has shown interest in second baseman Robinson Cano. If you give Cano a mulligan for April, he hit .297/.326/.448 in 2008. That seems like a reasonable American League projection going forward. Cano, 26 in a few weeks, is signed through 2011 with two club options beyond that. The Yankees would look for a starting pitcher in return.
- Rosenthal agrees the Padres will explore the trade market for ace Jake Peavy. He expects Kevin Towers to wait until the big-name free agent starters sign, which will accentuate the relative affordability of Peavy’s contract (basically four years, $63MM).
- Rosenthal says Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy knows he is likely to be traded to make room for prospect Alcides Escobar. It’d be a reasonable move, but only if Escobar proves he is a capable replacement.
- Pat Gillick told Rosenthal he will not be returning as Phillies GM next year, despite recent speculation.
Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are next in our Offseason Outlook series. Their setup for 2009:
C – Chris Snyder – $1.85MM+
C – Miguel Montero – $401K
1B – Chad Tracy – $4.75MM
2B –
SS – Stephen Drew – $1.5MM
3B – Mark Reynolds – $400K
IF – Augie Ojeda – $550K+
IF/OF – Chris Burke – $955K+
LF – Conor Jackson – $420K+
CF – Chris Young – $1.75MM
RF – Justin Upton – $1.3MM
OF – Eric Byrnes – $11MM
OF – Alex Romero – $400K
SP – Brandon Webb – $6.5MM
SP – Dan Haren – $7.5MM
SP – Doug Davis – $8.75MM
SP – Edgar Gonzalez – $411K+
SP – Max Scherzer – $1.075MM
RP – Chad Qualls – $1.3125MM+
RP – Jon Rauch – $2MM
RP – Tony Pena – $406K
RP – Yusmeiro Petit – $400K
RP – Doug Slaten – $401K
RP – Leo Rosales – $400K
RP – Billy Buckner – $400K
Non-tender candidates: Wil Ledezma – $620K+, Chris Burke – $955K+
The D’Backs have about $55MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Snyder, Burke, Jackson, Gonzalez, Qualls, and Ledezma. A few of those guys could be non-tendered, keeping the D’Backs under $60MM. They started ’08 at $66.2MM, though I believe the D’Backs take more of a long-term view toward payroll. MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert figures they’ll have less than $10MM to spend.
The Diamondbacks were in the middle of the NL for OBP and SLG. They have positional flexibility with Jackson, Reynolds, Tracy, and Byrnes, though only Jackson posted a strong OBP among those four.
Looking at the market, it probably makes sense to put Jackson at first base and acquire a left fielder if possible. Raul Ibanez, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell, and Manny Ramirez are the top free agent left fielders. Bobby Abreu could also fit. However, these players will all cost more than $10MM a year. GM Josh Byrnes says he’s more likely to hit the free agent market than make trades, since the D’Backs traded so many prospects in ’08. Byrnes will have to find a bargain, maybe a Juan Rivera type. The D’Backs also need a second or third baseman depending on where Reynolds plays. There’s just not enough money unless payroll goes up.
The team’s pitching staff looks respectable, though losing Randy Johnson would hurt. I can’t see how they can re-sign him and add an offensive player for a total of $10MM. Scherzer will have to have a big year if Johnson leaves. With Qualls, Rauch, and Pena, it seems the pen can withstand the losses of Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon.
It’s kind of awkward having Byrnes as the highest-paid player on the team, as he could end up the fourth outfielder if Jackson plays left. With $22MM remaining on his deal (and a no-trade clause), the D’Backs would have to take on a bad contract in return. Nick Piecoro had an interesting idea with Luis Castillo.
Once again the D’Backs will look to improve offensively mainly through development of their young players. Young and Upton do seem poised for breakouts. It also seems likely the D’Backs will make a few midseason trades as they did in ’08.
Olney’s Latest: Yankees, Cashman, Giambi
A few hot stove notes from ESPN’s Buster Olney…
- Olney heard the Yankees’ 2009 payroll will be in the $180MM range, down $29MM or so from this year.
- The Yankees didn’t need to negotiate dollars with Brian Cashman…it was just a matter of whether he wanted to come back.
- Olney can see Jason Giambi returning to the A’s "if the money can be worked out." Does two years, $20MM sound right? A Giambi signing would either push Daric Barton to the bench or Jack Cust to left field.
Odds and Ends: Cabrera, Sabathia, Gillick
Your hot stove links for Thursday…
- Ken Fidlin of the Toronto Sun thinks the Blue Jays should consider Rafael Furcal. I concur. But even after missing most of ’08, Furcal probably won’t have to take a one-year deal unless he wants to.
- Phillies GM Pat Gillick didn’t rule out the possibility of returning to Toronto as the team president.
- River Ave. Blues doesn’t see the Yankees or Red Sox acquiring Matt Holliday.
- The Mariners are down to 10-12 names in their GM seach, before conducting a single interview.
- David Steele of the Baltimore Sun wants the Orioles to give Daniel Cabrera one more chance. Cabrera is arbitration-eligible and should earn at least $3MM in 2009.
- Jim Baumbach of Newsday looks at free agent considerations for the Yankees and Mets.
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle says there are indications the Giants will gauge C.C. Sabathia‘s interest in signing with them. I would be surprised to see the Giants win the bidding.
- Angels owner Arte Moreno seems willing to stretch payroll past $124MM for the right players. The Angels’ postseason performance will be a big factor.
- Central Maine Sports Blog talked to Gary Carter, Buster Olney, Brad Wilkerson, and others about the Montreal Expos.
Minaya Extended; Delgado Will Stay
The Mets made Omar Minaya’s extension official today. It runs through 2012 with club options for two years beyond that. Matthew Cerrone at MetsBlog likes the decision, but feels the term is excessive.
Additionally, Minaya announced that the Mets will exercise Carlos Delgado‘s $12MM option for ’09. This seemed like an easy decision given the $4MM buyout. The Mets were not going to find an .800 OPS first baseman on the free agent market for a one-year, $8MM deal.
On the bullpen front, ESPN’s Buster Olney says rival execs expect the Mets to aggressively pursue free agent Brian Fuentes. I’m thinking three years, $30MM.
D’Backs Rumors: Johnson, Webb, Byrnes
Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes talked to the media Monday afternoon; the transcript can be found here along with comments from beat writer Nick Piecoro. Let’s discuss.
- The D’Backs want to improve the offense and have good positional flexibility. However, Piecoro thinks it’s possible the team relies on improvement from young players rather than acquisitions.
- The team will wait a few more weeks before really engaging with free agent Randy Johnson. You get the impression the D’Backs have their limit for him, maybe in the $10MM range.
- Byrnes intends to be more active in free agency than he has in the past.
- The D’Backs will continue to talk with Brandon Webb about a contract extension (they can control him through 2010 already). Byrnes said Webb may want to see what C.C. Sabathia gets.
- In another post, Piecoro talks about Eric Byrnes‘ no-trade clause. Byrnes gives the impression he might waive it if he feels he’s not wanted. If Conor Jackson stays in left Byrnes could be the fourth outfielder heading into ’09.
Elias Rankings: NL Starters
Eddie Bajek has cautioned that his projected Elias rankings may not be perfect. However, it’s the closest thing we’ve got as Eddie is the only person to publicly reverse-engineer the rankings. With that, a look at the NL starters:
- Type A: C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez, Derek Lowe, and Jamie Moyer. Moyer is on the borderline, so he could possibly end up a Type B. He seems likely to re-sign anyway. The other four will be offered arbitration and could sign elsewhere, netting two draft picks for their old team.
- Type B: Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Randy Wolf, Greg Maddux, Braden Looper. Not all of these guys will be offered arbitration, though Wolf is a good bet.
- Neither A nor B: Randy Johnson, Livan Hernandez, Tom Glavine, Odalis Perez. Johnson just missed Type B, so he might sneak in there. It only really affects the D’Backs.
Cashman Comments
Peter Abraham has interesting quotes from Yankees GM Brian Cashman:
- The Yankees are trying to improve their process for scouting Japan. Thinking back to Kei Igawa in ’06…that seemed like a direct response to the Red Sox getting Daisuke Matsuzaka.
- Cashman thinks Mike Mussina is leaning toward retirement. That would complicate Cashman’s situation.
- It seems that Hal Steinbrenner has gotten Hank under control, which would make Cashman’s job easier. There will be no advisory board, by the way.
- Joel Sherman says Cashman is now fighting for his reputation.
- Cashman cautioned fans against getting too attached to any one free agent. He may have been implying C.C. Sabathia.
Rangers Rumors: Blalock, Bradley
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News discusses the Rangers’ offseason in a new article, focusing on areas other than pitching (which is top priority). We tackled the Rangers here.
- Grant says the Rangers will "almost certainly" exercise Hank Blalock‘s $6.2MM option for ’09. However, the Rangers prefer Chris Davis at first base. That means Blalock will either DH or be traded.
- Milton Bradley could be re-signed as DH, but the Rangers still don’t want to give him a multiyear deal given his health history. Bradley is dead set on multiple years. When Eddie Bajek last checked, Bradley was right on the border between Type A and B status.
- The Rangers have a well-known catching surplus. They’ll explore possible deals for pitching, but this is not top priority.
- Over at MLB.com, owner Tom Hicks admits trading John Danks was a mistake. Hicks also mentioned an aversion to high-priced free agent pitching.
Astros Decline Brocail’s Option
According to Brian McTaggart of the Houston Chronicle, the Astros declined Doug Brocail‘s $3.25MM option for 2009. The Astros are concerned about Brocail’s ailing shoulder. However, they’d like to re-sign him at a lower rate. Brocail seemingly profiles as a Type A free agent, though he might accept arbitration if the Astros offer it. He was disappointed by their decision on his option though.
Brocail, 41, posted a 3.93 ERA in 68.2 innings. His strikeout rate was up significantly from ’07. He struggled in July and August, but pitched well in September.