Olney Speculation: Penny For Donald?

This is 100% speculation on Buster Olney's part, but it makes for a good discussion topic.  Should the Phillies trade infield prospect Jason Donald for starter Brad Penny?  (I repeat – this is not an actual trade rumor).

The first question is how much Penny would help the Phillies.  He's rung up a 5.96 ERA in nine American League starts, and has a 5.47 xFIP to match.  Olney discounts Pedro Martinez for the Phillies in part because he's a flyball pitcher, but Penny's groundball rate this year isn't impressive at 38.4%.  Olney's other argument against Pedro is that he does not go deep into games, but Penny's averaged only 5.37 innings per start this year.  So if the Phillies like Penny, shouldn't they like Pedro almost as much?  (They actually have no interest in Pedro, by the way).    

The other question is whether six years of Donald is too much to give up for four or fewer months of Penny.  Does Donald profile as a super-utility player in the future, as Baseball America wondered in their '09 Handbook?

2010 Options: Arizona Diamondbacks

Let's take a look at the 2010 options facing the Diamondbacks.

  • Brandon Webb – $8.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout.  Webb has missed most of the season due to shoulder bursitis, but the option for next year is still an easy decision to exercise for one of the NL's best pitchers.  Webb's future should be interesting to follow.
  • Jon Garland – $10MM mutual option ($2.5MM buyout if club declines, $1MM buyout if player declines).  My guess is that it will be the D'Backs declining, but there's still plenty of season left for the innings-eater to endear himself to the team.  Garland is a strong trade candidate, however.  If dealt, his new team cannot offer arbitration if he's a Type A free agent.
  • Chad Tracy – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout.  Tracy is hitting .184/.246/.333 in 126 plate appearances, so it looks like the team will take the buyout.
  • Jon Rauch – $2.9MM club option – exercised.  The D'Backs had to make this decision within five days after the end of the 2008 World Series.  They probably regret it.

Draft Roundup: Pirates, Padres, Angels

A few draft links for Friday…

  • Chuck Finder of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette talked to Pirates GM Neal Huntington and president Frank Coonelly.  Huntington said signability is not "a sole driving factor," while Coonelly talked about wanting to get players signed quickly.  The Pirates seem to be leaning toward pitching with the #4 pick based on comments from scouting director Greg Smith.  ESPN's Keith Law predicted the Pirates will take high school infielder Bobby Borchering, Baseball America went with college righty Kyle Gibson, and MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo picked Aaron Crow.   Huntington said that the team's international dealings and the draft are "independent entities."  In other words, they won't go cheap in the draft in order to sign Miguel Angel Sano
  • Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune says the Padres are eyeing Dustin Ackley, Donovan Tate (Boras clients), high school righty Zach Wheeler, college lefty Mike Minor, and Crow at #3.  BA predicted Grant Green (another Boras client), Law chose Crow, and Mayo went with Minor.
  • The Angels have five picks in the first 48, according to Kevin Baxter of the L.A. Times.  The Halos seem to be looking at prep players: Mike Trout, Everett Williams, Jiovanni Mier, and Tyler Skaggs.
  • Rich Lederer of Baseball Analysts has a Q&A with Baseball America's Jim Callis.
  • Callis talked to scouts about righties Crow and Tanner Scheppers.

Marlins Interested In Daniel Cabrera

According to Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, the Marlins are interested in righty Daniel Cabrera.  Cabrera was designated for assignment by the Nationals on Tuesday.  Berardino notes that Marlins pitching coach Mark Wiley worked with Cabrera in Baltimore in '04.

Back when Cabrera was a free agent, he reportedly drew interest from eleven clubs (the Pirates and Mets included).

Brett Myers May Need Hip Surgery

6:51pm: Ed Price of MLB Fanhouse has a bit more:

"I don't think we can do anything right now," a Phillies official told FanHouse. "I don't think that [Myers injury] hastens it one way or another."

5:17pm: According to Jim Salisbury of the Philadelphia Inquirer:

After having an MRI today, Phillies pitcher Brett Myers was told that there was fraying to the labrum in his right hip, an injury that could require surgery and jeopardize the remainder of his season.

ESPN's Jayson Stark mentioned earlier today that the Phillies are looking everywhere for starters, and have inquired about Roy Oswalt, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, Doug Davis, Erik Bedard, Cliff Lee, Aaron Harang, Brad Penny, Chris Young and Jason Marquis.  Ruben Amaro Jr. might want to acquire two.

Bad timing for Myers, who is eligible for free agency after the season.

Odds & Ends: Draft, Rangers, Feliz

Another collection of random links…

Stark On Peavy, Oswalt, Phillies, DeRosa, Giants

Let's take a look at the latest Rumblings and Grumblings column from ESPN's Jayson Stark.

  • The Padres' recent winning streak has not changed their intention of trading Jake Peavy.  The Dodgers and Cubs are in Peavy's first tier of choices, follwed by the Giants, Cardinals, and Astros.  The Angels would be the one AL team he'd consider.  The East Coast is a long shot.  Also, Peavy will want his 2011-13 partial no-trade clause to become a full no-trade.  Peavy's friend Roy Oswalt has been unsuccessful in lobbying Astros owner Drayton McLane, as the 'Stros can't take on Peavy's contract.  As for the Dodgers, GM Ned Colletti told the L.A. Times he hasn't talked to the Padres about Peavy since the pitcher vetoed the White Sox deal.
  • Stark talked to scouts who believe Oswalt has "lost his edge" and needs a change of scenery.  The Phillies have inquired on him, but they've asked about everyone: Peavy, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, Doug Davis, Erik Bedard, Cliff Lee, Aaron Harang, Brad Penny, Chris Young and Jason Marquis.  Popular Phillies trade targets include Lou Marson, Jason Donald, Carlos Carrasco, Travis D'Arnaud, Freddy Galvis, Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown, and Antonio Bastardo.
  • The Braves are interested in bringing Mark DeRosa back to Atlanta.  He came up with them and was non-tendered in '04 after tearing his ACL.  But to deal young arms, the Braves would want an impact bat.  Stark says they're "mostly listening" rather than shopping Jeff Francoeur.  His trade value is difficult to gauge.
  • The Mets seem content to wait out the first base trade market.
  • The Giants seek a middle-of-the-order bat, and Jonathan Sanchez is being dangled.  Three targets they haven't had success on are Dan Uggla, Jorge Cantu, and possibly Carlos Lee.  Lee, according to one Stark source, doesn't intend to waive his no-trade for anyone.

Free Agent Matchmaker: Braves Need An OF

A look at the remaining 2009 free agents reveals a number of household names still without a job. True, most of these are over the hill veterans, but in many cases they can help contending teams fill roster gaps. Over the next few weeks we'll look at which team/player combinations make sense. Since we're right around the 1/3 mark of the season, now is the time for teams to take chances on these guys. Since they'll probably need at least a few weeks to get into game-playing condition, acting soon would mean having them around the halfway mark.

The 23-23 Braves are lacking in the outfield. Of their Opening Day starters, Jordan Schafer holds the highest OBP at .322. His .301 SLG and .209 BA make his low OBP look even worse. After a hot start Jeff Francoeur has stumbled, and now posts a paltry .629 OPS. Garrett Anderson and his .300 OBP and .322 SLG have been sitting more in favor of Matt Diaz, whose numbers have been more than acceptable in his 93 plate appearances. Still, the Braves could use someone else to shore up the outfield. They could look to a trade, but they might as well scour the free agent market first.

The crop of free agent outfielders have a common problem: lack of mobility. The Braves already have Anderson, so adding another no-glove outfielder who is also a gamble with the bat makes little sense. Maybe Jay Payton could help, but he didn't exactly post sterling statistics as a 35-year-old in 2008. In fact, the Braves would probably be better off just sticking with Diaz-Schafer-Francoeur than signing someone like Payton.

One name on the list sticks out: Jim Edmonds. Yes, he's 39, so his range is going to be limited. In fact, he posted a -14.1 UZR (-23.3 UZR/150) last year as a CF for the Padres and Cubs, so he might only be a help defensively at a corner. But if he can put up even 85 percent of his OPS with the Cubs last year, he'd be a definite upgrade over Francoeur at this point. He could make sense as a replacement if the Braves decide to bench or trade Frenchy.

Yet there is a name which does not appear on the official MLBTR list, and who might not only be willing to play, but would be a mobile outfielder who still has some skills left, even at 42 years old. Yes, that's Kenny Lofton. He's an outside the box pick, mainly because of his age and that he hasn't played in a game since 2007. Way back when the off-season started, Lofton expressed a desire to play in 2009. The downside is that Lofton doesn't just want to play: he wants to get paid. It's doubtful even the desperate Braves will pay Lofton the $6 million he made in '07, even if prorated.

Still, Lofton put up good defensive numbers in 2007 and had a .781 OPS to boot. But if we're talking about the 85 percent production as we did with Edmonds, it doesn't seem as attractive. Even so, he could represent an upgrade over Schafer in center, given his defense and what we'll assume will be league-average offense for a center fielder.

The question facing the Braves right now is of whether checking out these two free agents is more attractive than dealing prospects for outfield replacements. They're in a decent spot with their pitching, and that could become even stronger if Tommy Hanson jumps out of the gate and/or Tim Hudson comes back. With the Mets battling injuries and pitching issues of their own, and with the Phillies doing much the same (more on the pitching front than injuries), the Braves are certainly in the NL East race. They'll certainly look to upgrade in the outfield. Will it be through some gambles on free agents? Or will they reach into their bag o' prospects and try to acquire a younger player?

Joe Pawlikowski is a writer for River Ave. Blues.

Less Than 10% Chance To Make Playoffs

Which teams are most likely to become sellers in the next few months leading up to the July 31st trade deadline?  To help determine that, let's take a look at Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds report.  The report gives the following eleven teams less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs:

  • Pirates – 9.46%
  • Giants – 8.78%
  • Mariners – 6.14%
  • Rockies: 4.84%
  • Athletics: 4.36%
  • White Sox: 4.33%
  • Marlins: 3.20%
  • Orioles: 2.77%
  • Diamondbacks: 2.58%
  • Astros: 2.25%
  • Nationals: 0.52%

The report likes the 20-28 Indians more than the 21-25 White Sox, because Cleveland has a better run differential.  The report gives the Tribe a 14.4% playoff chance.  The Padres have pushed themselves up to 11.94%.

As far as pure offensive production this year, your trade candidate leaders from these eleven are Adam Dunn, Russell Branyan, Brad Hawpe, and Nick Johnson.  This year's top pitchers from these non-contenders include Mark Buehrle, Matt Cain, Wandy Rodriguez, Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, and Doug Davis.  I'm not sure whether Buehrle, Cain, and Rodriguez will actually hit the market.