Week In Review: 9/13/09 – 9/19/09
We're about two weeks from the playoffs; funny how even a 162 game season can fly by. Let's take a look back at the last seven days:
- Just like last week, we start off with a September blockbuster: The Nationals acquired Jamie Burke for cash. The Nats will be Burke's fifth franchise.
- Did they or didn't they? Earlier in the week we heard a report that the Jays rejected an offer of Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, Daniel Bard, Nick Hagadone, Michael Bowden, and Felix Doubrount for ace Roy Halladay. Later, it was reported that the offer was actually Buchholz, Masterson, Hagadone, Bowden, and Josh Reddick. Could J.P. Ricciardi have passed up on that haul? I find it hard to believe, personally, but what do I know? That's a lot of talent to turn away, if it's true.
- Speaking of aces, could the Diamondbacks really reject Brandon Webb's $8.5MM option for 2010 and buy him out for $2MM? The current word is that they'll "take their time" on the decision. Webb missed nearly all of 2009, so he's no sure thing, but when the decision is over $6.5MM, it seems like a pretty logical risk, wouldn't you think? It's not like we're talking about Magglio Ordonez's $18MM option for 2010, which vested this week, by the way.
- It's been a rough year for Chipper Jones offensively (by his standards), and he's apparently not pleased with himself. Chipper says that if his 2010 production looks like this season's, he may hang it up before his current contract is up. When an .823 OPS is a down year that has you considering retirement, I think that's a sign you've had a pretty great career.
- Have the Cubs had enough with Carlos Zambrano? Reports this week stated that they'd look to shop Zambrano in the offseason if they could find a taker. Finding someone to pay Zambrano $18MM per season and put up with his attitude will be a pretty difficult task though. For now, Zambrano is stating that he won't waive his no-trade clause anyway, so it may be a moot point.
- Anyone in need of an injury prone former Cy Young winner? Bartolo Colon was released by the White Sox this week. He'll be available on a minor league deal next season most likely.
- Tanner Scheppers and Aaron Crow have a lot in common. Both pitchers failed to sign after being drafted in 2008, and both signed this week. Ok, maybe that's not that much. At any rate, Scheppers signed with the Rangers for $1.25MM, and Crow signed with the Royals for $3MM. Remember, neither was held to the signing deadline because they were both drafted from an independent league team.
- Curious to see who's on the free agent market this winter? Tim's got the scoop on the market for center fielders, left fielders, and third basemen this week.
- Updates in the Offseason Outlook series include the Indians and Mets.
Discussion: Should Atlanta Re-Sign LaRoche?
Adam LaRoche has certainly thrived in his return to Atlanta. He's hitting a ridiculous .356/.429/.638 with the Braves in 2009 – a monstrous second half in his contract year. The Braves will face an interesting decision in what to do with LaRoche this offseason, but according to Carroll Rogers, you can count teammate Chipper Jones among those who want to see LaRoche back with the Braves in 2010 and beyond:
"…[Y]ou have the best first baseman that’s going to be on the market in house now. So why not do all you can to lock him up. What else does a guy have to do? He’s produced since he’s been here. He’s been one of the key reasons we’ve gone from a .500 club to 10 games over since he got here. He’s an incredible defender. A 30-home run guy in a pitcher’s ballpark is a commodity that needs to be treasured.”
Jones acknowledges that the Braves #5 prospect, Freddie Freeman, is moving up through the minors. Freeman, however, just turned 20, and has struggled in his move from High-A to Class AA, putting up a line of just .248/.308/.342 through 41 games.
Rogers spoke with both Jones and LaRoche about LaRoche's desire for the security of a multi-year deal. Looking for three years or more, LaRoche says his ideal situation would be to stay in Atlanta, but he recognizes that it might not happen.
The Braves also have decisions to make on the back of their bullpen, as well as with what Javier Vazquez's future with the organization looks like. This year's free agent class of first basemen will likely be headed by names such as Nick Johnson, Aubrey Huff, and Russell Branyan. Will LaRoche outperform these names over the coming years?
If you were Frank Wren, how would you handle the situation? Should LaRoche be counted on as a long-term solution, or do you spend on other holes and try to find a quick stopgap at first base for a season?
Perrotto’s Latest: Cubs, White Sox, Chipper, Josh Johnson
The latest from John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus:
- The Cubs are trying to sign John Grabow and Reed Johnson before they reach free agency.
- Perrotto says those that know Chipper Jones believe he would actually retire after next season if he can't perform up to his standards.
- There's a possibility the Marlins will try to deal Josh Johnson this winter even though he won't be a free agent until after 2011. Johnson is not anticipated to take a hometown discount to stay in Florida.
- Perrotto expects Russell Branyan will re-sign with the Mariners before he reaches free agency.
- Seems like pure speculation, but a Jake Peavy for Carlos Zambrano deal this offseason would not surprise some in Chicago.
Cafardo’s Latest: Felix Hernandez, Red Sox
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has his Sunday column up. Let's have a look.
- Cafardo expects the Red Sox to make another push for Felix Hernandez in the offseason. Hernandez's price tag could prove too high for Seattle to retain him; however, they are open to extending him. Before the deadline, the Red Sox reportedly offered a 5-for-1 deal for the ace that Seattle turned down.
- The Indians have yet to see dividends pay for the players they received for Cliff Lee. Cafardo writes, "Righty Carlos Carrasco is 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA (six homers in 14 innings); catcher Lou Marson is hitting .154; shortstop Jason Donald went on the disabled list in Triple A; and righty Jason Knapp underwent surgery to remove fragments from his shoulder."
- Cafardo wonders if the Nats would've dealt Cristian Guzman had they known Ian Desmond would emerge as their shortstop of the future.
- Chiming in on the Jason Bay or Matt Holliday discussion, Cafardo quotes scouts who seem to have him leaning toward Holliday as the better option, particularly for Boston.
Odds & Ends: Reynolds, Gammons, Orioles
Some late night links after Jake Peavy allowed three runs in five innings in his first start for the White Sox…
- Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic notes that Mark Reynolds is likely to fall short of qualifying as a Super Two, meaning he'll have to wait until after 2010 to become arbitration eligible. He also says that it "does not appear there have been any discussions about a long-term deal with Reynolds, but the club does not seem averse to the idea of an extension."
- ESPN's Peter Gammons writes about how great Victor Martinez has been for the Red Sox since being acquired at the trade deadline. He also praises Casey Kotchman, but I think I'd rather have Adam LaRoche, who has a 1.053 OPS since the trade.
- Orioles Manager Dave Trembley indicated that the team needs someone to hit behind Nick Markakis until some younger players like Matt Wieters and Adam Jones are ready to do it, according to MASNsports.com's Roch Kubatko.
- If you aren't already, make sure you follow MLBTR on Twitter.
Comparing Matt Holliday & Jason Bay
This year's crop of free agents isn't the sexiest collection of names we've seen, but Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are two bonafide stars that will be available to the highest bidder. Several teams will be looking for middle-of-the-order run producers, so there will be no shortage of suitors for this pair.
Let's take a second to quickly compare the two outfielders, starting with Holliday…
- Represented by Scott Boras, but has expressed an interest in signing an extension with the Cardinals.
- Will turn 30 in January.
- Hitting .356/.407/.654 with St. Louis after .286/.378/.454 with Oakland.
- Career .318/.386/.547 hitter with double-digit steals annually, but just .289/.359/.476 outside of Coors Field.
- Has a +2.1 UZR/150 in left this year, down from +10.9 last year and +14.7 the year before.
- Making $13.5MM in 2009, plus possible bonuses. FanGraphs values his performance at $22.8M.
And now for Bay…
- Represented by Joe Urbon of CAA, who also represents Grady Sizemore, among others.
- Talks about a contract extension have been put on hold until after the season.
- Turns 31 tomorrow.
- Hitting .274/.382/.540 in his Red Sox career, right in line with his .280/.377/.522 career mark.
- Double digit steals in four of the last five years.
- Left field defense rates a -13.8 UZR/150, which is actually an improvement over last year's -18.2 mark. In 2007 it was -11.4.
- Making $7.5MM this season, but FanGraphs says he's actually been worth $12MM overall.
Earlier this week SI.com's Jon Heyman spoke to an agent who thought that Holliday and Bay could pull down identical seven-year, $147MM contracts this offseason, although an unnamed GM guessed that Bay would get $15MM per season. A $147MM contract would be the 8th most lucrative deal in baseball history, and frankly it seems pretty astronomical for either player.
What kind of contract do the readers of MLBTR think Holliday and Bay will walk away with? Which player would you rather have for the long term?
Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Dodgers, DeRosa, Cubs, Managers, General Managers
Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com has a new Full Count video up, so let's dive right on in…
- Southpaws Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw are likely to start the first two games of the playoffs for the Dodgers, but Kershaw must recover from his dislocated non-throwing shoulder first. The back-to-back lefties would be a big advantage if LA played the lefthanded hitter heavy Phillies. Rosenthal also mentions that the Cardinals, despite being so righty heavy, have the second lowest team OPS (.675) against lefthanded pitchers in the National League.
- Hiroki Kuroda would likely start game three for the Dodgers, followed by either Vicente Padilla or Jon Garland. Chad Billinglsey will likely be left out of the rotation.
- The Cards have put their contract extension talks with Mark DeRosa on hold until the offseason, making it more likely that he'll become a free agent. The deal St. Louis originally proposed was less than the three-year, $17.5MM contract Casey Blake received as a free agent last offseason. DeRosa is a year younger now than Blake was then, but the offseason wrist surgery he is scheduled to have makes the situation cloudy.
- The Cubs will be open to "anything and everything" this offseason, including trading Milton Bradley and/or Carlos Zambrano. Anything to improve the club, basically. However, perhaps the only way the Cubs could unload Bradley would be to take on another underachieving, overpaid player in return.
- Zambrano has a full no-trade clause and is owed $54MM over the next three years, but he's still only 28-years-old and still incredibly talented. The free agent market for starting pitching is thin, which may work in Chicago's favor. Big Z might be appealing at the right price.
- Ken Macha will likely remain with the Brewers, but at least four other managers are in danger of being fired. The list starts with Cecil Cooper of the Astros, and also includes Jim Riggleman of the Nationals, Dave Trembley of the Orioles, and Eric Wedge of the Indians.
- Among general managers, Ned Colletti of the Dodgers, Brian Sabean of the Giants, and Dan O'Dowd of the Rockies are all without contracts for next year, and two of them are going to the postseason. The only GM that appears to be in jeopardy of losing his job is J.P. Ricciardi of the Blue Jays.
Scott Eyre Considering Retirement
According to Scott Lauber of The Wilmington Journal, 37-year-old reliever Scott Eyre is considering retiring after this season.
Eyre was diagnosed with a "loose body" in his left elbow earlier this week and plans to undergo surgery in the offseason to repair it. If his rehab doesn't run smoothly, he's likely to hang up the cleats. Eyre has posted an impressive 1.61 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 28 innings out of the Phillies' bullpen this year, holding left-handed hitters to a .207 batting average.
He has a 4.24 career ERA, 1.52 WHIP and four saves over 12 major league seasons.
Discussion: The Market For Joel Pineiro
Joel Pineiro threw his first pitch as a major leaguer in 2000, as a member of the Seattle Mariners. He stuck around in the Pacific Northwest for the next seven seasons, going 58-55 with a 4.48 ERA and a 5.9 K/9 over 996 innings (148 starts). His best full season in Seattle came in 2002 when, as a 23-year-old, he finished 14-7 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 and a 45.4% groundball percentage. Pineiro was a much different pitcher back then. He pitched mostly away from contact, and sought out high strikeout numbers.
These days you can find the right-handed Pineiro racking up gaudy groundball rates in St. Louis, under the tutelage of Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan. He stands 14-11 this season with a 3.31 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 4.4 K/9 and a major league-leading 61.2% groundball percentage over 29 starts. With a new style of pitching and some excellent season-long numbers, Pineiro enters free agency this winter.
He's hoping to remain in St. Louis, where he has been able to revitalize his career, but the Cardinals probably won't have enough salary left for the right-hander if they opt to ink Mark DeRosa and/or Matt Holliday long term. What other teams might have interest in the pitch-to-contact 30-year-old? And what kind of contract can he realistically demand? Kyle Lohse, for reference, was handed a four-year, $41 million deal in 2008 after posting a 3.78 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 30 starts.
Odds & Ends: Mets, Francoeur, 2010 Free Agents
Some more links to digest on a great day for baseball around most of the country…
- Mets manager Jerry Manuel suggested Saturday that he'd like to see his club go after a reliable starter this offseason. "You can always use pitching," said the skipper. (Quote courtesy of Anthony McCarron with the New York Daily News). There should be a decent market for starters this winter. And for even more on the Mets, check out MLBTR's Offseason Outlook.
- In the same article, Manuel mentions that he's been impressed with Jeff Francoeur, who is "playing hard with nothing to really go for." The 25-year-old outfielder is batting .315/.341/.487 since arriving in New York and is under team control until 2012. "He's been a welcome addition," Manuel added. "He should be a good piece moving forward."
- Matthew Pouliot of NBC Sports continues his series on the 2010 free agent class. He's ranking the 111 best available players with semi-daily columns. Here's his take on Nos. 111-91. If you haven't already bookmarked Circling The Bases, or added it to your RSS feed, you're missing out on a host of good content.