Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote a compelling piece yesterday for MLBTR examining Jose Bautista's upcoming arbitration case. Today at RotoAuthority.com, we attempt to predict Bautista's 2011 home run total through the wisdom of ten top baseball writers, including Peter Gammons, Ken Rosenthal, Jon Heyman, and Buster Olney. Click here to see their predictions.
Archives for 2010
What They Were Saying: NL East GMs
Three of the National League East general managers got their start in the Expos/Nationals organization. Two of the GMs began their careers with the unenviable task of following up Pat Gillick. Here's how the five NL East GMs were perceived when they landed their first permanent general manager jobs.
Note that Beinfest was interim GM of the Expos before landing a permanent job with the Marlins and that I looked back at Omar Minaya since the Mets don’t have a GM.
Mike Rizzo
“When he was a kid, Mike Rizzo wanted a job in the majors. As a player, not an executive. When it was clear that wasn't going to happen, when he was released after a four-year stint as an infielder in the minors with the California Angels organization in the early 1980s, the question was: What now?
Rizzo sat down for a talk with his father, a baseball scout whose advice was to stick with the sport, but to switch his focus.
‘He said, 'Mike, you could be a minor league bum your whole life. You're not going to play in the big leagues. You're not talented enough for that,'’ Rizzo recalled Thursday.
Instead, Dad suggested, be a scout, coach, manager or general manager.” – Howard Fendrich, The Associated Press, August 21st, 2009
Ruben Amaro Jr.
“Amaro seemingly was groomed for the GM's job since he joined the front office. Son of Ruben Amaro Sr., a former shortstop and coach for the Phillies, the younger Amaro was involved in contract negotiations with players on the 40-man roster, as well as with free agents.” – The Philadelphia Inquirer, November 3rd, 2008. Amaro replaced Gillick as Phillies GM.
Larry Beinfest
“The man the Marlins introduced as their new general manager Thursday at Pro Player Stadium was wearing a crisp navy suit. It might as well have been a slick cellophane wrapper. Larry Beinfest looks Wonder bread fresh. He's wholesome enough to be chewed up and spit out by baseball's ravenous carnivores.
It's hard to imagine Beinfest – so prim, trim and brimming with enthusiasm – doing lunch with baseball's uber agents. Being lunch, maybe. Yes, it's easy to picture Scott Boras or Jeff Moorad picking pieces of Beinfest out of their teeth.
The 37-year-old could pass for the Marlins' new senior staff accountant. Listening to Beinfest talk, you'd never guess that he's Dave Dombrowski's successor.
A friend of Beinfest who lives in L.A. called him the other day and asked what kind of general manager he plans to be. A typhoon, blowing in and making wholesale changes? A tinkerer?
‘I don't know," came Beinfest's honest reply. "I haven't done it before.’
You sigh. You're sure the truth shall set the Marlins reeling.” – Karen Crouse, The Palm Beach Post, February 15th, 2002
Omar Minaya
“Omar Minaya always has made it a practice to see hidden possibilities. Once, when he was a scout, he saw something in a small, inexperienced, 16-year-old who had an awkwardly long swing and a cut-off milk carton for a glove. Yes, Minaya was the one who signed Sammy Sosa.
By the same token, Minaya has decided to leave the security of his comfortable job with his hometown Mets to be general manager of the Montreal Expos, who might not exist this time next year. He officially accepted his new post yesterday, confident of the possibilities for his own career and for other people.
The 43-year-old became the first Hispanic general manager in baseball history.” – Mark Herrmann and Steve Zipay, Newsday, February 13th, 2002.
Frank Wren
“A former minor-league outfielder, coach and assistant scouting director in the Montreal Expos' organization, Wren served under Marlins GM Dave Dombrowski for seven years. According to Foss, Wren had the most impressive resume of scouting, which includes a specialty in Latin America, as well as computer expertise, to win a competition that also included Chicago White Sox assistant Dan Evans, Cleveland Indians assistant Dan O'Dowd and Atlanta Braves assistant Dean Taylor.” – Kevin Seifert, The Washington Times, October 24th, 1998. Wren replaced Gillick as Orioles GM.
Mutual Interest Between Francis, Rockies
The Rockies have interest in bringing Jeff Francis back next year and the left-hander would like to re-sign in Colorado, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post. The Rockies, who are expected to decline their $7.5MM option for Francis, told his agent they still want to work out a deal.
"They have made it clear they want Jeff to stay," Jim Lindell said. "Jeff loves Denver, loves the guys in the clubhouse. And if everything's equal, Jeff would love to be back."
ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark recently heard indications that the Rockies won’t offer Francis more than a modest one-year deal with incentives. The team’s pursuit of Francis could depend, in part, on negotiations with another Rockies lefty. Jorge de la Rosa hits free agency this offseason and he may have started discussing a contract with Colorado.
Regular MLBTR Features
If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, our Week In Review posts and Mike Axisa's Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:
- MLBTR Chats – Come by every Wednesday at 2pm CDT to chat about the latest trades, signings and rumblings around the major leagues.
- Baseball Blogs Weigh In – Every Friday morning, Mike Axisa directs you to some of the best writing on baseball blogs around the web. Whether it's opinion, stats or something else entirely, you can connect to the best of the blogosphere once a week on MLBTR. If you want to send Mike a post of yours, reach him at: mike@riveraveblues.com.
- Week In Review – It's amazing how much happens in seven days. Every Sunday night, we summarize the week's biggest stories in our Week In Review posts.
- MLBTR Originals – We gather all our original analysis and reporting in one place every Sunday night.
Jack Of All Trades: Nelson Cruz
To many casual baseball fans, Nelson Cruz still isn't a household name. Never mind that he hit 33 home runs last year and posted a ridiculous .318/.374/.576 line this season- respect has been hard to come by for the 30-year-old Cruz.
This is nothing new, incidentally. Cruz has been traded three times in his career, an astonishing total for a player with a good reputation and off-the-charts power. What's more interesting still is how little he's commanded in return. Let's relive the uneven goodness, shall we?
Cruz originally signed with the New York Mets as a free agent in 1998 out of the Dominican Republic. After three years in the Dominican Summer League, the Mets traded Cruz on August 30, 2000 to the Oakland Athletics for infielder Jorge Velandia. The Mets desperately needed another backup infielder who could handle shortstop, and Velandia was certainly a desperation move- he hit a cool .000 in both his 2000 and 2001 trials with the Mets, before rallying to .190 in his third and final stint with New York in 2003.
It took Cruz even longer to find his hitting stroke. He finally turned his power tool into a skill in 2003, popping 20 home runs for Single-A Kane County, but hit just .238. Finally, in 2004, his line improved dramatically; he hit a combined .326/.390/.562 at Single-A, Double-A and Triple-A. That convinced the Milwaukee Brewers to deal their starting second baseman, Keith Ginter, to Oakland on December 16, 2004 for Cruz and pitcher Justin Lehr.
Once again, however, the booty for Cruz turned out to be unimpressive. Ginter had hit .262/.333/.479 in 2004 for Milwaukee, but slumped to .161/.234/.263 in 2005 for Oakland. He never played in the major leagues again.
Cruz, meanwhile, kept on hitting, but in the minor leagues – Milwaukee gave him just seven plate appearances during two seasons in the organization. (For reference, Brady Clark received 1,093 plate appearances during those same seasons.)
Finally, Milwaukee traded Cruz to the Texas Rangers, but the Rangers were actually after Carlos Lee, who also came to Arlington in the July 28, 2006 deal. The Brewers received Francisco Cordero, Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix and minor leaguer Julian Cordero.
Of all the players dealt for Cruz, Francisco Cordero actually produced for his new team, with 60 saves and a 11.6 K/9 ratio over his season-and-a-half in Milwaukee. Mench never hit in Milwaukee the way he had in Texas, Nix disappointed as well, and Julian Cordero never climbed above Single-A.
Lee hit .322/.369/.525 in his half-season with Texas before signing an immense contract with Houston that still has two years and $37MM left on it.
Cruz struggled mightily to get his major league OPS over .700 in 2006-2007, but he absolutely murdered the ball at Triple-A. Finally, in 2008, Cruz hit .330/.421/.609 in a big-league trial, and was in the major leagues to stay. From 2008-2010, Cruz has hit .292/.360/.555 in 1,093 plate appearances- the same exact number Brady Clark received from Milwaukee while Cruz languished in the minors.
Rest assured, the next time Nelson Cruz is traded, the package coming back will be significant.
Mets Rumors: GM, Manager, Takahashi
The Mets intend to hire a general manager by the World Series, but it may take significantly longer for the organization's choice to turn the team into a contender. After three days of conversations with GM candidates, Mets chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon told Dan Martin of the New York Post that top executives believe the team needs some work.
"They all know the reality of where we are," Wilpon told reporters. "It's not a bad perception, but they understand the reality."
The Mets don't have a manager under contract for 2011, but they'll wait to hire a GM before choosing a skipper. Once Wilpon and other Mets executives decide between Allard Baird, Rick Hahn, Josh Byrnes, Sandy Alderson, Logan White and others, selecting a manager will become a priority.
ESPN.com's Buster Olney hears that Alderson has an excellent relationship with owner Fred Wilpon and definitely wants the Mets to hire him (Twitter links).
The new GM will also have to determine whether to pursue Hisanori Takahashi, who can become a free agent at the end of the month. Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker passes on a Japanese report indicating that Takahashi seeks a two-year deal and would prefer to remain with the Mets (Twitter link). MLBTR's Tim Dierkes suggested last month that Takahashi could seek a two-year deal worth $2.5MM per season plus incentives.
Big Raise Ahead: Jose Bautista’s 2011 Salary
Arbitration Expert Breaks Down Bautista’s Value With MLBTR
A glance at the all-time single season home run leaders tells you all you need to know about Jose Bautista’s 2010 campaign. Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Roger Maris, Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, Hank Greenberg, Ryan Howard, Luis Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr. and Hack Wilson are the only players who have ever hit more home runs in a season.
Needless to say, Bautista is due for a raise.
Bautista, who heads to arbitration for the fourth and final time this offseason, earned $2.4MM last year, and will make far more in 2011. It’s a question of how much more and the answer isn’t easy to determine.
The problem is, few careers resemble Bautista’s. He played for four teams in 2004, played five positions in 2006 and seemed destined for a career as a utility man when the Blue Jays acquired him in 2008. And in 2010? He made the All-Star team and led the major leagues in extra base hits and home runs.
If your head is spinning, imagine how arbitrators – the decision-makers responsible for settling salary disagreements between teams and players – would feel after considering Bautista’s case for a few hours. The Blue Jays have a history of avoiding arbitration, so there seems to be a good chance that they don’t go to a hearing this time, but the potential for one will shape the sides’ discussions.
The Blue Jays can argue that Bautista deserves a limited raise, but they have to be careful, according to one longtime arbitration consultant.
“You lose a lot of credibility with an arbitrator if you have a guy who had a monster year and you start pissing all over him,” says Michael Vlessides, who has faced most leading baseball agents on behalf of various MLB teams over the course of the past two decades.
In other words, Bautista has a strong case, and there’s not much the Blue Jays can do about it. But they can keep his salary in check and they could decide to offer him a multi-year deal, even though Bautista is coming off a remarkable season.
Bautista’s Case: The Historic Season
Bautista’s representatives will likely argue that his season was historic, not just productive. He set the Blue Jays record for home runs in a season (54) and also ranks among the organization’s all-time single season leaders in slugging percentage (2nd with .617), total bases (5th with 351), RBI (5th with 124) and walks (7th with 100).
Bautista just hit more home runs than Albert Pujols or Adam Dunn has ever hit in a season. More home runs than Jim Thome or Manny Ramirez ever hit. Among active players, only Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Howard and David Ortiz have matched Bautista’s 54 home runs, so he has joined some select company.
Under different circumstances, players like Jorge Cantu and Adam LaRoche could have been comparables for Bautista. Both entered their final arbitration season with similar career numbers to the ones Bautista now has, but Cantu and LaRoche weren’t coming off of such impressive seasons.
Last offseason, Cantu received a raise from $3.5MM to $6MM. It’s a substantial bump, but Bautista appears to be headed for more.
“Really that’s not the starting point for Bautista,” Vlessides said. “He had 54 home runs and as esoteric as baseball analysis has become over the years, arbitration remains a fairly simplistic process… We don’t talk about win shares or anything along those lines. So 54 home runs and 124 RBI is pretty sexy and this guy is not going at $6MM.”
LaRoche beat $6MM a couple winters ago. He agreed to a $7.05MM salary (up from $5MM) when he headed into his final arbitration year, but he had come off of a 25 homer-85 RBI season. Bautista’s representatives can argue that $7MM wouldn’t be enough for a player who had just had a historically productive season and hit twice as many homers as LaRoche did.
Bautista’s agents can compare him to a player on a much sexier career path than Cantu or LaRoche. Bautista has not produced as much as Mark Teixeira had at this stage of his career, but the Yankee first baseman could be a point of reference for Bautista.
Teixeira’s salary jumped from $9MM to $12.5MM after the 2007 season, a year in which he had fewer homers, doubles, RBI, runs and walks than Bautista had this past season. Vlessides says Bautista’s representatives can use Tex as a comparable to show that Bautista had a better platform year, even if they admit that their client doesn’t deserve the $12.5MM salary Teixeira obtained.
The Blue Jays can gently point to apparent flaws in Bautista’s game such as strikeouts and his low batting average. But it’s hard to take issue with Bautista’s offense and he has more than his bat going for him. He plays right field and third base, doesn’t turn 30 until next week and has been healthy throughout his career. What’s more, he’s a respected clubhouse presence who helped welcome Yunel Escobar when the Blue Jays acquired him last summer.
Bautista’s side can argue that he has adjusted, learned and evolved into a completely different player from the man who had never hit more than 16 home runs before 2010. It’s a subjective argument and arbitrators won’t necessarily buy it, but it’s not unprecedented for players to find themselves during their late twenties. Arbitration panels sometimes listen when players pull at their heartstrings, Vlessides said.
Even if they just stick to the numbers, Bautista’s representatives can argue that he deserves a big raise based on comparable players and his place in history. Assuming Bautista doesn’t win the MVP award and assuming that his representatives don’t ‘reach’ for an unexpectedly high salary, Vlessides predicts a bid of roughly $10-11MM from Bautista’s agency.
The Blue Jays’ Case: The Pedestrian Career
The Blue Jays cannot and will not ignore Bautista’s massive 2010 season, but the team can point to his earlier mediocre production and argue that he hasn’t earned an eight-figure salary. Unlike Teixeira, LaRoche and Cantu at comparable points in their careers, Bautista has had just one standout season. That would gives the Blue Jays a certain amount of leverage in a hearing.
“What they would do is when they compare him to other players, they’ll say ‘these guys all had good seasons, but their career contributions dwarf that of Mr. Bautista and the only reason we’re talking about them in the same vein is because we recognize that he had a better platform year,” Vlessides said.
The Blue Jays can point to the raises others received and note that Bautista would earn less than $6MM with a comparable jump. However, Bautista’s representatives can argue that he deserves a bigger boost than others.
“A smart agent will look at the raise and say ‘listen, raise is irrelevant here because Mr. Bautista has been a good citizen for his club,“ Vlessides said.
Last winter, Bautista agreed not to take a raise since he hadn’t earned one. His agency can argue that it would be unfair for the Blue Jays to penalize their star for taking no raise last winter.
Bautista put together a fantastic 2010 season, but it wasn’t perfect, something the Blue Jays may remind a panel if the sides go to arbitration. Bautista, whose violent swing has always led to high strikeout totals, whiffed 116 times in 2010 and he batted just .260, though that figure represents a new career-high.
Keep in mind that GM Alex Anthopoulos has never gone to an arbitration hearing, either as GM or when he worked on arbitration cases under J.P. Ricciardi. The Blue Jays have successfully avoided hearings since 1997, but if they do go to arbitration, the team figures to submit an offer of $7.5-8MM, Vlessides said.
The Bottom Line
Bautista’s ‘true value’ in arbitration (not to be confused with what he’d earn as a free agent) is below $10MM and likely sits around $8-9MM, Vlessides said.
Keeping Bautista Long-Term
A long-term deal for Bautista could take on many different shapes, depending on the team's willingness to offer guaranteed money and Bautista's eagerness to capitalize on his big season. Per team policy, the Blue Jays declined to comment on the team’s interest in reaching a multi-year deal.
The first year of the deal would likely be worth $8MM or so and the following seasons could be worth $14-17MM. Beyond that, there are many variables, but Vlessides can imagine the sides agreeing on a two-year deal worth $25MM including buyouts for vesting options.
That depends, of course, on the Blue Jays’ faith in Bautista to approach or replicate his 2010 level of production and their desire to please the fan base with a feel-good move. Don’t forget that Bautista became a fan favorite in Toronto, where crowds greeted him with ‘MVP’ chants and showered him with standing ovations.
So while Bautista hasn’t set himself up for a Ryan Howard or Alex Rodriguez-esque deal, those 54 homers seem to have ensured him an $8MM payday next season. Not bad for a guy who was supposed to be a utility player.
Poll: Will The Reds Pick Up Cabrera’s Option?
Last winter the Reds signed Orlando Cabrera to a one-year deal in part because of his leadership abilities and playoff experience. The veteran earned $2.02MM in 2010 with a $4MM mutual option for 2011. If Cincinnati declines the option, the buyout will be for $1MM and if Cabrera declines, it will be for $500K.
While Mark Sheldon of MLB.com writes that Cabrera delivered on the leadership, his offensive numbers slipped in 2010. The soon-to-be 36-year-old hit .263/.303/.354 in 123 games while playing above-average (5.3 UZR/150) defense. Meanwhile, Paul Janish improved his offensive production, posting a slash line of .260/.338/.385 in 82 games while also playing a solid shortstop (2.2 UZR/150) in a limited role. Janish also did a solid job of filling in for Cabrera when he was injured for critical games in August.
Will the Reds pick up their end of Cabrera's option?
Odds & Ends: Valentine, Cook, Mets, Mariners
Wednesday evening linkage..
- Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel wonders if Bobby Valentine was ever a strong candidate for the Marlins opening this time around.
- Troy Renck of The Denver Post (via Twitter) believes that Aaron Cook will be back with the Rockies in 2011.
- Bobby Valentine pulling his name out of contention in Florida could be a sign that things are heating up elsewhere, writes Larry Stone of The Seattle Times.
- Jeff Wilpon would like to hire a GM by the end of the World Series, tweets Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.
- Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times (via Twitter) says it's not impossible that we'll see Eric Wedge and Milton Bradley in the same clubhouse again.
Overbay Prepared To Hit Open Market
Despite a strong finish to the 2010 campaign, first baseman Lyle Overbay is unsure if he has a future with the Blue Jays, writes Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. With changes around the corner in Toronto, Overbay says that he's less-than-thrilled about the prospect of being part of a rebuilding effort.
"The situation has got to be right," the 33-year-old said. "Obviously, it's not going to be a long-term deal. So, if they take a step back, I just don't see myself coming into that. It's not going to help them and it's not going to help me, because I'm not going to be part of the winning part of it."
The Blue Jays have options to turn to if they decide not to retain Overbay, though they all come with question marks. Designated hitter Adam Lind was auditioned at first base this year but GM Alex Anthopoulos admitted that the available sample size (eleven games) was not enough to judge his fielding. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are other possible candidates but Bastian writes that Toronto will look out-of-house for a new first baseman in 2011 if they don't hang on to Overbay.
