This week's mailbag gets into many aspects of the Rafael Devers trade, remaining questions to answer in Boston, no-trade clauses, shortstop options for the Braves, Pete Alonso's next contract, Ryan Helsley's struggles, and much more.
Kevin asks:
What's your personal take on the Giants trade? I think Boston got the better deal.
John asks:
Seen a lot of talk from fans and the media that Devers contract will age badly but I did a little digging into the Contract Tracker. Between 2015 and 2020 there were 12 contracts with an AAV at 30 mil. and over. This year alone there were 5, including one for 50. So am I wrong to think that given the way salaries have escalated by the end of the contract 30 mil. likely won't be that big a deal?
Denny asks:
Will Devers HR stats suffer playing home games at whatever the current name is of the ballpark in SF?
My initial reaction was to favor the Giants' side of the deal. They added a 28-year-old top 10 hitter in baseball who should be worth 3-4 WAR per year for the foreseeable future. The Giants also ditched Jordan Hicks' contract in the process.
The Giants could feel pain from moving Kyle Harrison and James Tibbs III, but probably not in the short-term. The balance of this deal hinges heavily on Harrison, who is just 23 and retains number two starter upside. The Red Sox can control Harrison through 2030 if they keep him in the minors for a few weeks, which I'm guessing is the plan. Harrison has at least held his own through the equivalent of one Major League season.
Tibbs is considered a 50-grade prospect; he'll have to hit a lot to profile as a corner outfield regular. Jose Bello is the wild card prospect, and those get moved regularly.
I have seen multiple anonymous executives suggest Devers' contract is underwater, meaning he's worth less than he's owed. You could look at that in a strict dollars per WAR/aging curve sense, plugging in Devers as a 4-ish WAR player for 2025 who will begin his decline in 2026 or '27 and will be paid through 2033 (age 36). WAR doesn't like a player like this, especially if he's a DH, and I could see valuing him below $250MM with this approach.
Say Devers was owed $253MM at the time of the trade, plus a $2MM assignment bonus paid by the Giants. Let's also say that Hicks should be valued around $8MM per year. Given that his contract pays $12MM a year through 2027, the Giants save approximately $10MM by unloading Hicks' contract. Factor in Devers' deferrals and we'll say it's like the Giants are paying Devers around $225MM for the next 8.5 years.
Had Devers been declared a free agent on June 15, would he have topped $225MM?
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If the Devers contract is under water, it’s because he was devalued by being made a fulltime DH who was told he’s too incompetent to even fill in for a game or two at third base.
If he starts playing the field again, most likely at first base, his value would obviously rise.
Devers contract – actual payable dollars left owed – is much cheaper than people throw around numbers on.
First, there’s the deferred money. $75M Worth to be exact.
BUT, then there was also a $20m signing bonus, payable $5m/yr from 2023-2026…or in otherwords $15m already paid down front loaded.
Even the deferred payments are split to be twice a year on either end of the season, making part of that money due later than it otherwise would be within each calendar year 2033-43
That all combined to make the “assumed” value on the deal much cheaper than people make it out to be.
Shouldn’t deferred be spelled deverred?
Sorry, I couldn’t resist.
When he has breakfast are they devered eggs?
I played first base in one game and was terrified down there. Sure enough, an ex-minor leaguer hit an absolute rocket my way and it went into my glove and I beat him to the bag. Wearing the claw felt so awkward. I was 40 and pretty much done with baseball. And don’t get me started about coaching third. Equally terrifying.