This week's mailbag gets into many aspects of the Rafael Devers trade, remaining questions to answer in Boston, no-trade clauses, shortstop options for the Braves, Pete Alonso's next contract, Ryan Helsley's struggles, and much more.
Kevin asks:
What's your personal take on the Giants trade? I think Boston got the better deal.
John asks:
Seen a lot of talk from fans and the media that Devers contract will age badly but I did a little digging into the Contract Tracker. Between 2015 and 2020 there were 12 contracts with an AAV at 30 mil. and over. This year alone there were 5, including one for 50. So am I wrong to think that given the way salaries have escalated by the end of the contract 30 mil. likely won't be that big a deal?
Denny asks:
Will Devers HR stats suffer playing home games at whatever the current name is of the ballpark in SF?
My initial reaction was to favor the Giants' side of the deal. They added a 28-year-old top 10 hitter in baseball who should be worth 3-4 WAR per year for the foreseeable future. The Giants also ditched Jordan Hicks' contract in the process.
The Giants could feel pain from moving Kyle Harrison and James Tibbs III, but probably not in the short-term. The balance of this deal hinges heavily on Harrison, who is just 23 and retains number two starter upside. The Red Sox can control Harrison through 2030 if they keep him in the minors for a few weeks, which I'm guessing is the plan. Harrison has at least held his own through the equivalent of one Major League season.
Tibbs is considered a 50-grade prospect; he'll have to hit a lot to profile as a corner outfield regular. Jose Bello is the wild card prospect, and those get moved regularly.
I have seen multiple anonymous executives suggest Devers' contract is underwater, meaning he's worth less than he's owed. You could look at that in a strict dollars per WAR/aging curve sense, plugging in Devers as a 4-ish WAR player for 2025 who will begin his decline in 2026 or '27 and will be paid through 2033 (age 36). WAR doesn't like a player like this, especially if he's a DH, and I could see valuing him below $250MM with this approach.
Say Devers was owed $253MM at the time of the trade, plus a $2MM assignment bonus paid by the Giants. Let's also say that Hicks should be valued around $8MM per year. Given that his contract pays $12MM a year through 2027, the Giants save approximately $10MM by unloading Hicks' contract. Factor in Devers' deferrals and we'll say it's like the Giants are paying Devers around $225MM for the next 8.5 years.
Had Devers been declared a free agent on June 15, would he have topped $225MM?
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If the Devers contract is under water, it’s because he was devalued by being made a fulltime DH who was told he’s too incompetent to even fill in for a game or two at third base.
If he starts playing the field again, most likely at first base, his value would obviously rise.
Devers contract – actual payable dollars left owed – is much cheaper than people throw around numbers on.
First, there’s the deferred money. $75M Worth to be exact.
BUT, then there was also a $20m signing bonus, payable $5m/yr from 2023-2026…or in otherwords $15m already paid down front loaded.
Even the deferred payments are split to be twice a year on either end of the season, making part of that money due later than it otherwise would be within each calendar year 2033-43
That all combined to make the “assumed” value on the deal much cheaper than people make it out to be.
Shouldn’t deferred be spelled deverred?
Sorry, I couldn’t resist.
When he has breakfast are they devered eggs?
Does Raffy get deverance pay from the Red Sox?
Maybe, but certainly not “Reverence” pay!
GaSox – He probably has snuff for breakfast.
Not exactly sure why people keep wanting to make Ben Brown a reliever when most of his troubles come in the first inning. They’re probably the same people who keep pounding the square peg into the round hole or expecting the people at the bottom of the crypto pyramid to get rich. You know- morons.
I played first base in one game and was terrified down there. Sure enough, an ex-minor leaguer hit an absolute rocket my way and it went into my glove and I beat him to the bag. Wearing the claw felt so awkward. I was 40 and pretty much done with baseball. And don’t get me started about coaching third. Equally terrifying.
Wouldn’t it be much more terrifying standing on the mound? I wanted to pitch when I was a kid but had a phobia of the ball being hit right back to me on a line. One of my biggest regrets in life was not turning out just because I was afraid of the damn ball.
Funny you should say that, I was a pitcher. I took a line drive off my head right above my eye that ricocheted over the first base dugout. I was in my follow through and couldn’t react. The darn thing was a ground rule double. It was in the league final series and there was no way I was going to pitch again. Even the next year I was still pretty affected. I started to end my windup more upright than before. I only ever wanted to pitch but definitely could psych myself out on the mound. Pros make it look easy but it’s a lot of pressure out there.
hayzee – I always thought you were Yaz Sr, based on your handle.
Whyh = Y
ay = A
zee = Z
Always thought a possible scenario for “Death Wish IV” would be playing 1B with Willie McCovey at bat. No thank you.
Wasn’t Fever the one who wanted Devers to be a DH?
I liked Devers at DH. I think if he goes back in the field, he will likely get his shoulders in bad shape again by diving for ground balls.
Suit, the way I see it is, of the mookie/bogey/Raffy trio, devers is the one they should’ve let walk. I thought it then, and, think it now. Remember, bogey was able to be retained for less money and years than SD paid, so, everyone who argues he’s not worth his current deal… that wasn’t what it’d take to have kept him in red socks back before he hit FA.its about overall team impact, and, you mix the bat with the glove and the IF positional need… it wouldve worked out well keeping story at 2B.
So, the return on this trade is much better than a comp pick you’d get from letting Raffy walk. That’s how I see it.
And this is a more well rounded team with the space freed up and able to let the kids play.
Good luck to Raffy who has apparently made an overdue attitude adjustment, but, I won’t miss him.
Bogaert’s OPS has been going down for SIX straight years. This year he’s hitting a .617 OPS. His slugging which was once over .500 is now .314. He was signed an 11/$280M contract. Pads are still on the hook for 8 more years.
Red Sox shouldve signed him?
Yes Reggie. You do realize that in 2021 Bogaerts was on record as willing to waive his opt out and convert his 3/60m plus 1/20m 4th year option that was remaining into ‘what they gave story’ making the 4/80 into a straight 6/140 deal.
He’d have 3 years and 70m left on that right now.
What SD did upon his entering free agency is irrelevant to what bogey offered boston. But you’d have to have been a fan to follow those details as they happened.
GaSox – Have you been counting the number of times you’ve had to explain the Xander situation to the same people? Has to be at least a dozen times, right? LOL!
Yes Xander could have been extended for $160M/6yrs, all he wanted was $20M more than Story. This was winter/spring of 2022.
People who insist the only way to have kept Xander was to outbid the Padres are …… well, I’ll be nice ;O)
When the debate was raging between Xander and Raffy, nearly everyone here picked Devers because of his age. He’s more than 4 years younger than Xander.
Were they right? I hate to say it, but it’s looking that way.
As for the Devers trade, the Sox are taking on approx $31M in likely dead money with Hicks ….. so not as good a deal as people think. There was no need for Sox management to rush the trade, Raffy was hitting very well and the team was winning and there was peace throughout the clubhouse – no issues at all. But Breslow has wanted him gone since he took the job, he saw the opportunity with the May drama and he pounced.
Fever, I don’t know that breslow wanted devers gone initially… he just didn’t want him at 3B.
And, if you look at it, you destroy any trade value Casas had by swapping him with devers. Both because you lose leverage trying to trade a player without a position, and, because the guy is no longer taking field reps getting rusty.
While there may be emotional issues with how things were executed felt, from a business standpoint the front office said the right things to try to preserve leverage and maximize value.
And none of us know everything devers might’ve been told in private, or mindsets, or if *any* amount of coddling that massive ego would’ve changed his defiance and anger at moving off 3B.
I’d almost feel it’s fair to say bloom coddled devers, stroked his ego, and bent over backwards showering him with excessive perks/promises/treatment. Maybe the new guy comes in and says it like it is – devers, bloom should’ve booted you off 3B in 2020 – and it’s devers that had it out for Breslow… we aren’t going to know.
But, would the sox have been a better team where story was at 2B instead of the revolving door and now KC, would Mayer have come up to displace devers at 3B with bogey still in SS or would bogey have been the 3B and Mayer the SS? Who knows. Sale probably doesn’t get traded for grissom in that scenario. Maybe someone different, maybe not at all.
But I think it would’ve been a stronger defense, less brand damage – not just from devers trades, but, also seeing how bogey got lowballed and disrespected by bloom… and who knows how FA pitching might very viewed Boston differently? It’s lala land to consider.
But, of the guys who leave and I miss them, devers won’t be on that list.
You and FPG think your opinions are facts. They not. Repeating something “20 times” doesnt make it true.
I google your comment and only come up with this “Red Sox offered ‘roughly $160 million’ to Xander Bogaerts, several teams went higher”. That says Red Sox $160M offer was rejected because it was too low. Not the other way around.
Got anything to back up what you say? Maybe pull a link like I did. If its true it must be out there, I mean you must have read it right?. Here’s my link:
masslive.com/redsox/2022/12/red-sox-offered-roughl…
More imagination from the Wonder Twins.
Reggie, you’re looking at what was offered AS A FREE AGENT.
I’m talking BEFORE FREE AGENCY.
BEFORE THE OPT OUT.
BEFORE BLOOM INSULTED AND LOWBALLED HIM
10 seconds of searching, how about espn?
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35265339/mlb-free-agency-r…
Instead of personal attacks try some reading comprehension and look at what I am actually talking about, which was *BEFORE* the 2022 offseason?
Bogey wanted an extension like story got. Bloom offered to turn the 3/60 with a 1/20 4th year option to a straight 4/90 deal. Your 160m BS came up after bogey opten out, on the free market, the year later. Completely different set of negotiations and timeframe
GaSox – I’ve done a ton of reading the past few days. I can’t remember where I saw it, but I read the biggest objective when Craig came aboard was getting out from under the Devers contract.
We all know it was an overpay when the contract was signed, and as is often the case when a new boss comes in they like to remove perceived mistakes inherited from the prior regime.
They went into last winter determined to upgrade the 3B defense, and without moving Casas they knew it would mean Raffy becoming a fulltime DH while earning an infielder salary.
I’m sure they are entertaining the possibility of renegotiating Bregman’s contract as well, which they can afford to do now.
And oh yeah, they’ve appeared to dip just below the CBT threshold now.
And oh yeah, the day before the trade they signed some German soccer player to a record-setting contract.
Is that all coincidence?
As they say in Liverpool, not bloody likely!!
I’m really liking how Mayer looks at 3B, and if Story puts up a league-average season then keeping him at SS (or moving him to 2B) for the remainder of his contract is not such a bad idea.
Did ya see what Story did yesterday? While the rest of the bats have gone ice cold, Story keeps coming up huge. I’m sure you’re loving it as much as I am ;O)
“One Source said”? And in your mind it becomes “Bogaerts is on record”. What a leap. Its an anonymous source for sake. That sounds like a PR comment if ever there was one.
Wow, just like I said your imagination turns what you want to believe into facts.
I spent 10 seconds to find a single article, not an in depth dive and pulling out every actual media interview or other stories. Just enough for you to have the info and appropriate timeframes to dig on your own if you care about truth and accuracy vs your own speculations
I watched it real time as an invested fan. I’m not here to cater to people too lazy to do proper research and prepare you a treatise. They say ignorance is bliss, you gotta be one happy dude.
GA: Hope you are well. All your article says is: “One source close to Bogaerts said he would have seriously considered an extension similar to Story’s deal.” This does not support your above claim that “Xander could have been extended for $160M/6yrs”. All you have is a maybe if we are to believe the reporting which has no quotes from Xander and cites an anonymous source for the info. Considering = Maybe. I am guessing Boras strongly advised Bogaerts to go to free agency as many of his client do, but I can’t prove that either.
Its an anonymous source GA. When I read an ‘anonymous source’ says anything in the news, I take it with a grain of salt, but for you it becomes FACT because it aligns with your beliefs.
Its meaningless. Bogaerts NEVER said it, and the Red Sox certainly didnt say it.
GaSox – I remember educating him on that YEARS ago, before muting him. LOL!!
It’s hilarious how some people totally ignore the facts no matter how often it’s presented and supported.
FTR – The Red Sox came up with their final $160M offer during free agency because that’s what he wanted in winter/spring 2022. It was a respect thing, he absolutely deserved more than what Story got. Xander wanted only $20M more, it was a very reasonable ask.
Bloom was a moron to think Xander would still accept the same $160M he wanted 8 months prior. Either that or it was a calculated “Oh well, we tried” offer.
You need to post some quotes from people on record and not anonymous sources if you want people to believe you about Bogaerts. This is a reasonable expectation.
Why is it in the very same thread, FPG has me on block and other comments I can reply to him? Oh, thats right because he has 20 accounts and half are named FPG.
Go away now, the big boys are talking.
When someone mutes you, it is not perfect. Sometimes you can still reply to them. FPG muted me and I noticed that. I still call out his garbage anyway. I just reply to who he replied to.
Doubt it. I will literally see, within the same thread, a comment muted from FPG, then next two comments unmuted, etc. MLBTR doesnt have unique user names. I think FPG has several accounts called “Fever Pitch Guy” and he switches around to upvote himself.
I didn’t know that. Yeah, I think he upvotes himself.
Suit: go to the 20min 30sec mark and hear from bogey’s own mouth shortly after signing with SD:
megaphone.link/CAD7387139302
Remember baseball diplomacy and all what it is… that’s pretty much saying it all. You came in around 6/160, something was getting done.
I can see muted and unmuted comments from him right now on this page. He’s commenting on an unmuted account to me on this thread. Right now I can see he has 3 upvotes. Himself (0bviously), GA (who’s in agreement with him), who’s the third upvote? I doubt its you. Whos reading this thread and would be upvoting him, but not GA who’s making the exact same point?
It went from “Bogaert is on record” to “anonymous source close to Bogey” to this “pretty much says it all”. See how these guys crumble when you keep calling their bs. Did you get this from Bogey’s roommate’s cousin’s girlfriend?
GaSox – Nice find! It’s unfortunate you always get stuck doing the work because they are too lazy to do it themselves.
But guaranteed, they will pretend they never saw this the next time they accuse you of being wrong about the Xander negotiations. You may want to bookmark this.
It’s the epitome of forcing someone to jump through hoops.
“Nice find!” What he find? You have no clue cause you cant get in either. Just agree with him and pretend you won.
Also, why exactly should I have to prove what he said? I backed up what I said. So far, hes given a link that proved him completely wrong, and a podcast noone can get into.
Fever, I bothered this instance because I had time in the waiting room, and, because Suit asked nicely sounding like he was interested himself.
I know y’all come to heads in the past, but, he’s not a bad guy. He’s just got his *own* standard of proof, but, he’s consistent with it. So, what’s good enough for some, ain’t good enough for him, but it’s not about busting your nuts. He’s sincere, and, unlike others who just have this closed minded internet tough guy persona. It’s just the standard of proof he wants to see. (Tough to meet on a rumors site, but, can’t fault him for it.)
I don’t set or remember bookmarks, it’s not important enough to me… but feel free to save and use it on Xander convos in the future!
Use what? What proof? Can you give me the exact quote Bogaerts gave. You know the one “On the Record”.
First, you gave a link that once read proves you wrong because it only sights an anonymous source. Now you point to a podcast which noone can get into. And say “see that proves it”.
GA: Thanks for the link. I can’t view it unfortunately. Thanks for the kind words.
Bogaerts allegely said something “On The Record” that would be HUGE news with Red Sox fans. And is the only “proof” that can be found on the entire internet is a podcast noone can access. Hmmmm.
Suit, just my impressions, so, you’re welcome. you can find the episode embedded here:
audacy.com/national/sports/xander-bogaerts-red-sox…
It’s embedded in the middle of the article, shows for me like a purple sine wave.
It’s probably somewhere more than speculation,.and less than the black and white absolute proof you typically prefer, but, it’s Xander himself speaking.i add it to all the rest
Still, for a baseball fan it’s an interesting refresher on some missteps by the front office this decade
GaSox – It’s times like this I really wish we could give thumbs up just on certain paragraphs! LOL!!
Well as long as you don’t mind providing the same proof over and over and over again …. I’m just looking out for you my friend. I know you’re dealing with a lot, therefore your time is valuable and I would hate to see you wasting it.
And honestly part of it too is you have very interesting and informative takes that I really enjoy, whereas you having to educate the same people over and over again about the exact same topics just ain’t that enjoyable for me to read …. but I know that’s a me-thing, so I’ll deal ;O)
As you know I don’t comment on specific others here, especially those I’ve been forced to mute, so I won’t respond with my opinion of anyone else ….. I’m glad they haven’t treated you as badly as they treated me. Again it’s just me looking out for ya, I know those same people made you heated in the past.
Regarding proof, me personally I don’t tolerate when somebody tries to “win” a discussion by claiming it’s false if there’s no direct quotes or audio & video of the person saying something blah blah blah. Me personally, I have genuine standards ….. I’ll provide links, quotes etc when available, and if multiple credible sources are all saying the same damn thing and nobody involved is refuting it, then it has to be legit.
Because like you said, everyone in the baseball world are professionals trained on what to say and not say to the media or in public.
So just because someone like Xander doesn’t call a press conference and state on camera “All I asked for prior to the 2022 season was $160M” it doesn’t mean he was only gonna accept $280M from the Red Sox. If people closest to him are saying it’s what he wanted, then most likely it’s true.
I like to use bookmarks for two reasons, one I can’t talk about but I CAN say they come in real handy when new people I have discussions with are not informed. And they come in real handy when certain people try to spread the same crap. As you know I don’t take kindly to lies and dishonesty ….. hence my support of Xander, Raffy, Mookie, Lester, etc. ;O)
Thanks again for the Xander soundclip, I’ve already bookmarked it!
BTW – I recently stumbled across bookmarked comments that included you dropping the f-bomb and I was like DAMMNNN ….. I never recalled seeing that side of you before, it was great! It was about 2 years ago I think.
Hope all is going well today ….. Woosta again? Hopefully you have caught a few AAA games while up there.
Finally, I see why you didnt want anyone to see this:
What Bogaert says on podcast: Starting around the 20:00 min mark:
Bogaerts is completely reluctant as the podcaster pushes him to say something controversial about negotiating with the Red Sox. And Bogey finally says about the $160M offer if he had gotten it 8 months earlier: “that would have gotten a lot of talking, wouldve gotten me engaged” In other words it wouldve take more money. Probably a lot more money. Unless you think “getting engaged” in negotiations is the same as signing on the dotted line.
SMH. It proves nothing, other than ‘I dont want to talk about the negotiations with the Red Sox’.
I can remember *exactly* the instance when that one slipped out about our old friend chaims specific action LOL…
Bouncing around different specialists. No woosox (or bosox) games in my near future, but, lots of…. headaches lately. Headed to court soon to try preserving insurance access for the chemo in the near future. So, we shall see.
If youre saying you are going for chemo treatments. Sorry to hear that. I hope all well. Best wishes.
GaSox – Best of luck my friend. Headaches are the worst at night, putting my throbbing head on a pillow ….. it’s one reason why I buy only the ginormous soft ones.
Doubt he would sign with us for less
GA: I listened to that Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast in the article. It sounds like the 6 year/$160M offer, if it came in spring training of Xander’s last year, would get his attention, but not sure he would sign for that. I think it turns out Xander is not worth that and Story is not worth his contract either.
Hah! I thought that too while he was playing! Fricken’ laser beams came off McCovey’s bat. I once saw him (and had the chance to tell him in person at his home) hit a ball out of Candlestick Park just before they finished filling in the overhang above the outfield seats. It was a foul ball but Ken Henderson couldn’t stop talking about it post-game. He was gobsmacked, as was I.
unless if he sucks defensively, and then the value goes down ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
“value goes down”
So True, yet difficult for some to grasp. Adding a positive value and a negative value doesnt give you a higher value.
Dominic Smith is a decent defensive 1B and shouldnt be moved unless his bat crators.
What do you think The Detroit Tigers will do at the trade deadline???
Like every other contender, seek reinforcements for the bullpen. Got the best W-L record in all of MLB. Don’t need to do much at the deadline except solidify their roster for the playoffs.
HBK – Well last year the Tigers sold off some key players and ended up going on a nice run into the postseason, so I would look for more selling ;O)
Sell, it worked last year. LOL
I think the Tigers may want to add a couple relievers and maybe 1 veteran bat. Marcel Ozuna would be a nice rental for DH. An outfield of Greene. Meadows, Wenceel and Carpenter would be a nice outfield rotation.
For the bullpen, maybe Bednar from the Pirates and Bird from the Rockies.
I was hoping they could pull off a deal for Chris Sale. That would be great playoff top 3 in the rotation… Skubal, Sale and Flaherty with Olson or Mize at 4 if needed. But I asked MLBTR during their podcast and they said it would probably take 2 top 100 prospects. 1+ year of Sale isn’t worth that.
In context of Soto’s deal, Devers contract still looks good,
uvm – Same with context of Vlad’s deal, among others.
Same with Vlad. The casuals never understood the numbers, but imo, Devers has a much better contract than either.
I don’t think DH’s get enough credit when WAR is concerned. He’s doing what a DH is supposed to do… he’s providing offense. Top end offense. Not even half a season yet and he’s on pace for over 100 RBI, 100 runs, 30 homers and over 100 walks. OBP of .400. He is far better than 2 wins more than a AAA player in that position.
BVF
There is a component in calculating war for a DH that deducts value because you are not playing a defensive position. I’m NOT an expert on this subject, What would have a greater impact on a players war… leading in errors at your position ( overall bad defense) or being a full-time DH ?
Will Devers play the field this weekend vs the Sox?. How long until he feels
comfortable at 1stbase or 3rdbase ? Or management is ready to ask him to play the field. I do wish Crochet was facing them this series. Crochet vs Devers would be a great matchup. If Pedro Martinez was still here and pitching,he would drill him. Of course if this team still had leaders like Martinez and Big Papi, Devers would have picked up a 1stbasemans glove. IMHO.
Interesting that someone at MLBTR now writes that the Sox may want to explore trades for Duran before the shine from his 2024 season fades completely. Over the winter any time someone mentioned capitalizing on his clear season by exploring a trade every one of their writers declared it a dumb idea to give up a 7+ WAR player. It’s almost as if none of you have ever seen a player have a career year right around age 27 that will never be equaled again in their career.
Duran is a tough one, He is a prime example of what you want the other kids to see when he busts it down the line and ends of on second on a bloop pop up. Kid has hustle for sure. I do believe he had a career year last year and the time to trade him may have passed especially before the Netflix doc came out and made everyone aware of his struggles with mental health. Its real and I hate to say it but its a risk to sign him long term. I think he is a great player and person and hope he can manage it and succeed at the highest level, but other teams will take this into consideration when trading for him or signing long term contract options.