A few notes from ESPN's Buster Olney (Insider required)…
- Is it hasty to consider the Indians sellers for 2010? Olney writes of rave reviews for Fausto Carmona, who he believes could transform the team's pennant hopes. An above-average offense, good years from Jake Westbrook and Justin Masterson…you never know.
- Olney hears there's "only a trickle of trade talk going on." One GM believes that's because there's not much money available and there are still a few decent free agents out there.
- Olney spoke to execs who believe the Padres will wait to trade Heath Bell, to drive up the price and give the team a shot at winning early. Something to consider about Bell: MLBTR reader Jeff Hainey recently reminded me that while Bell is under team control for two years, his 2011 salary could potentially approach $10MM. That second year of control wouldn't be terribly appealing to the Twins, who will be paying Joe Nathan $11.25MM.
The Indians were predicted to be 90+ game winners last year too…
This is the first year in a while where the expectations for the Indians are pretty low. Most people expect them not to contend.
Indians had injuries early in the year, not to mention trading away Lee and Martinez. They weren’t ever destined to win last year after May.
A lot has changed over that time though. Them being competitive last year was based upon: Sizemore, V-Mart, Lee, Mark DeRosa, Hafner rebounding, Garko being useful, Wood being useful, and Carmona being useful.
Of these guys:
V-Mart, Lee, Garko, and DeRosa are gone.
Hafner showed that his decline was not just a fluke.
Wood was mediocre (and now he’s got injury issues)
They can still hold out hope for Sizemore and Carmona to rebound though.
But yah. They some solid guys in their trades and had some other guys that may produce more this year than last (see: LaPorta) but they’re definitely a much worse team this year than last year. Even assuming that everybody stays healthy and plays okay, let’s see who’s there:
Stars: Sizemore
Solid pieces: Choo, Cabrera, Peralta, Branyan
Good upside: LaPorta, Hafner, Marte, Brantley, Crowe, Chris Pérez, Carmona, Laffey?
Injured w/upside: Wood, Westbrook
Hit or miss: Sowers, Masterson, most relievers
Fill ins: Marson
I’m seeing a team with a potentially bright future, lots of upside, but their reliable talent on the field is a mess. Sure, if everything goes right they can contend. But their rotation alone is terrifyingly shaky. Who wants to have their #1 starter be a guy who hasn’t pitched in 2 years, their #2 guy be reliable for a mid 4 ERA, and the last three spots filled by rookies or prospects who haven’t yet panned out?
The Indians projection for that many wins last year was based on a lot of things going right. Now half of those good things are gone and most of the rest performed badly last year. If they win more than 88 games, I’ll eat my hat.
“Who wants to have their #1 starter be a guy who hasn’t pitched in 2 years, their #2 guy be reliable for a mid 4 ERA, and the last three spots filled by rookies or prospects who haven’t yet panned out?”
The answer to this question was… The Nationals. Just kidding. Though I think they might trade rotations straight up. I’m not sure how many other teams would though.
If they get more than 80 wins I’ll eat my hat.