Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports supplies his latest hot stove buzz…
- Rosenthal's source says the Rangers' interest in Mike Lowell is "light," and the Red Sox don't expect any team to make a suitable offer. Yesterday, ESPN's Jim Reeves said the Rangers keep coming back to Lowell in their search for a right-handed hitting role player. Rosenthal notes that the Red Sox will not release Lowell, who is owed $12MM.
- With Matt Cain locked up, Rosenthal sees a weak 2012 free agent class for starting pitching. Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, and Wandy Rodriguez appear to head the group, though C.C. Sabathia has the option of electing free agency and voiding the remaining four years and $92MM on his Yankees contract. Of course, a lot can change in two seasons. The larger point: there's a better selection of free agent starters after the 2010 season than after 2011.
- The Rangers looked into trading for Washington's Cristian Guzman before acquiring Andres Blanco from the Cubs. Guzman is currently projected to serve as an $8MM utility man for the Nationals.
I stand firm by my prediction that if the Red Sox cant find a suitor by the trade deadline, then Lowell will be released. Its obvious they are on the look out for a power hitter for his position or for first, which also affects his position will Youk moving over. His trade value is 0, and if it remains that way then they have to release him. Good call on Theo and management for getting Beltre, they were right in there prediction of Lowell not being ready or able to handle the position
Unless of course we do what the Marlins did when they traded Lowell to us and say you have to take Lowell as a throw in, that could work for another team with some room to give Lowell a try at some mild utility and DH work, of course the sox get nothing from this but it beats releasing him
the marlins included lowell as a “throw in” as part of a firesale to trade of veterans and acquire cheap,young prospects. it was a total rebuilding move. how, exactly, do you see this situation developing for the sox within the next year?
actually no, the trade was for their ace Josh Beckett. The stipulation for the Red Sox getting Beckett was that they had to take Lowell as well since he was coming off a down year and the Marlins thought he would bounce back. I assume this may be the only avenue for the sox as well. If the Sox trade someone they may say you have to take Lowell as well. Just a thought, probably wont happen but its possible
would not bounce back i mean
do you even understand what you wrote? in baseball parlance, a firesale means you trade a lot of potentially useful/impact/expensive players (read: josh beckett, mike lowell) in exchange for prospects (read: hanley ramirez). this is exactly what florida did.
can you imagine a scenario this year where the red sox unload beckett (or another ace) and mike lowell in order to acquire a prospect two years away from making an impact in the majors? I really can’t.
this is where you dont understand, Lowell wasnt considered an impact bat back then, look up his stats and articles about the trade. At the time, we solely took Lowell to get Beckett, period. We didnt think he would bounce back either at the time but were we lucky enough to see that he did. The sox didnt trade anything for Lowell, we traded guys for Beckett and got “stuck” with Lowell.
I cant think of a scenario either yet, because the season hasnt even started. lets play a game or two first and see if anybodies needs change
“at the time, we solely took lowell to get beckett, period.”
exactly.
so, you’re saying that there’s a scenario where the red sox trade away a player so useful (like the marlins did with becket) that the team their trading with feels compelled to take lowell’s bad contract in order to make the trade work?
enlighten me as to what that trade might look like.
stop getting so sensitive, i already told you that there isnt a scenario yet didnt I? it could show itself later if the sox fall out of contention and they want to trade away someone big and get Lowell off the books, atleast a portion.
I agree with empathizerightonyourbehind. That scenario is highly highly highly unlikely to present itself.
“fall out of contention…”
Even if that happens, they’ve still gotta content next year, so they won’t go trading their stars away. Big market contender are less likely to do that.
If Lowell comes back Tuesday and show he’s atleast decent at the plate between now and opening day I think a team will take a chance on him (with Sox eating ~10m of course), but yeah the return is going to be very small.
Isn’t it a bit premature to start looking at a free agent class 2-3 years down the road? That’s more than ample time for new aces to emerge, current talent to erode, extensions to be signed, and injuries to wreck careers.
I’d be interested in seeing see how “2010 free agent class” analysis would have looked a few years ago, compared to how it actually stacked up. My hunch: not accurate enough to warrant much excitement or worry.
I did write that a lot will change. Just for fun here’s a look at the ’10 class that I did a year prior.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/a-look-at-the-2.html
My comment was more directed as Rosenthal than you, Tim.
Thanks for the link though. It does look like you did a pretty good job last year. Don’t mind me, I’m just a crummudgeon. I also enjoy complaining about Christmas displays put up before Thanksgiving as being offensively premature.
Houston really seems to me as though they could use Guzman… Keppinger provides better dividends as a super-utility guy, while Manzella is likely to struggle mightily at times (and is currently nursing a minor injury). And in his contract year, he will likely out-perform both of the above, and Maysonet too.
I agree with Dierkes’ implied amazement that a team like the Nats would pay 8mm for a bench player… unless they have concerns about Desmond on some level, which I doubt. So it seems to me Guzman gets dealt soon, but if not to the Astros, to whom?
There are some concerns about Desmond, if his bat doesn’t stay hot he’s not much better than Guzman. He may have better range than Guz, but he boots too many easy plays. Also Guzman’s contract is so big that its hard to trade him. Sure the Nats could eat a big portion of it, but with some concerns about Desmond it doesn’t make sense to trade him now and then need a shortstop in 3 months if Desmond stops producing at the plate. If Desmond proves to not be a flash in the pan I could see Guzman being dealt in the May-June timeframe.
Natsintx, I read Desmond’s potential (i.e. age/minor league numbers) quite a bit more optimistically than you seem to – but since Desmond was the focus of an insane bidding war in my league, I picked up Guzman for almost nothing, and I actually hope you’re closer to right than I am… or if Guz does get dealt, it’s to an NL team (my league being NL only, and Houston’s park would be a nice bonus).
Then my only lingering doubt will be if I should have pulled the trigger on a long-term, and fairly expensive commitment to Jose Reyes (who went for a price that was not very discounted at all…)
i think a trade will happen too actually. he’s going to cost less than $3M with guaranteed offensive production. alot of the press rumblings are most likely from teams trying to set his “price” by claiming ‘mild interest’. If Lowell can prove minimal fielding ability he’ll have value to a team in either league.
He’s most definitely not “guaranteed offensive production”. Reports out of Fort Myers say he’s not putting his hips into his swing, and is relying too heavily on upper-body.
But Boston fans seem desperate to try to pump up his value nonetheless…
Nothing is ever guaranteed. But the reports coming out of Ft. Myers that you are referring to are from Marlins scouts giving quotes to the Sox-Hater/Controversy Stirrer Boston Herald. It is precisely the story planted to try and downplay his value. More than 40 scouts have talked to the Globe staff reporters (Abraham/Benjamin) and they’ve all said two things: (i) its too soon to make a judgment on Lowell, because he’s had limited playing time; and (ii) he looks comfortable at the plate and at 1B. I’m not trying to pump up his value. I prefer to keep him because I believe his .300+ bat with some power will be back and will be an asset to the BoSox in a platoon DH/1B role. One thing I can say in fairness is that his mobility is down so much that no National League team should consider him. His bat is his only value, with spot defensive capability only. That said, if the bat works like it has in the past, he has some value on the market for other AL teams.
I actually agree with you; I’m inclined to say both (1) it’s too soon to tell how he’s going to do, and (2) if he’s nearly as good as Red Sox Nation seems to insist, you’re going to need him in the event Ortiz falls on his face again – his trade value is not nearly as close to his value to the team if indeed he is “guaranteed offensive production”.
It’s that second point that makes me skeptical when Boston folks try to sell him – I just think “If he’s really as good as you’re telling me, you’d want to keep him.” So it feels like alot of used-car-salesmen pushing a lemon.
Well, I agree with you on several things then: (i) I hate Xmas decorations going out before Thanksgiving; (ii) your a curmudgeon; and (iii) its too soon to write the story on Lowell. Since I’m advocating we keep him for precisely the reasons you state, I think I escape the used car salesman moniker. I’m not trying to stuff sawdust in Lowell’s transmission. He’s got one asset left, historically speaking. But “IF” his bat returns to form, he’s got value as a DH/1B fill-in. Nothing is guaranteed. If he hits .310 and has 4 or 5 homers over April and May, then perhaps some other AL teams will be interested at a price the BoSox can stomach. Right now, everyone thinks its a fire sale, and I don’t blame them. I would just walk away from the table until the market for him is better settled.
Unless the economy significantly improves, both generally and in baseball, I don’t see CC opting out because salaries for top tier free agents have remained flat while the salaries of the majority of players have been subject to deflation.
4/92 is pretty good money anyway. Not sure if he would get more years or even more money if he opted out.
I’ve said it before, but I think this all goes out the window with the Yankees in the picture. Unless both Hughes AND Chamberlain work out as starters or he falls off the table, I can see Sabathia opting out just to get a bit of money tacked on to the end of the deal.
A-Rod did it and it worked like a charm. Sure, that was in a better economy, but the Yanks paid out the nose for Sabathia in the first place in a down economy. If he maintains his stats, it’s a gamble that I can easily see paying off for him.
I am forced to agree with Rosenthal. Uhhg. Sox will not release Lowell unless his bat fails to return to form. They’ll give him some months to show that it has or hasn’t. We’re not gonna just throw away $12MM unless its our only option.