The Padres have weathered their shaky early-season rotation to conclude April with a strong 19-11 record. Their starting pitching group should improve within the next couple weeks, which could lead to some decisions for the front office.
Griffin Canning seems assured of a rotation spot once he’s back from last summer’s ACL tear. Canning has taken five rehab starts with Triple-A El Paso. He got to five innings and 68 pitches on Tuesday. Pitchers can spend up to 30 days on a minor league rehab assignment. Canning began his rehab work on April 4. He could make one more Triple-A start but should be activated by the beginning of next week.
Lucas Giolito isn’t too far behind. The righty consented to an optional assignment to build up after signing a one-year deal on April 22. That came with the stipulation that he be recalled within 25 days. He’ll be on the MLB roster by the middle of May at the latest. Giolito made his second start with Low-A Lake Elsinore tonight, building to 70 pitches over 4 1/3 frames. He may not need the full 25-day window.
None of San Diego’s current five starters can be optioned. Michael King isn’t going anywhere, and Randy Vásquez has nailed down his spot with an excellent April. Walker Buehler, Germán Márquez, and Matt Waldron are the three pitchers trying to hold rotation spots.
Márquez will take the ball tomorrow to open a weekend series against the White Sox. King and Vásquez round out that set. The Friars have not yet listed probable starters for next week’s road series in San Francisco — which would be Buehler’s and Waldron’s turns if they stay on their current schedule.
Buehler has a 5.40 earned run average through six starts. He’s getting ground-balls but has a modest 7.8% swinging strike rate and has only once gone beyond five innings. Márquez will make his sixth start of the year on Friday. He has two scoreless outings but has allowed four runs in each of his three other appearances while struggling with the home run ball.
The knuckleballer Waldron was blown up by the Angels and Rockies in his first two starts of the season. He had a more competitive though unspectacular outing against the Cubs yesterday, giving up three runs over five innings. The out-of-options righty has only fanned eight of 69 opponents (11.6%) since returning from a brief injured list stint.
Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune floats the possibility of the Friars going to a six-man rotation or using openers/tandem starts on days when King doesn’t pitch. They were off today but play on 10 straight days beginning tomorrow. After an off day on May 11, they’ll play nine consecutive games.
Of course, the drawback with a six-man rotation or tandem starts would be the need to drop to a seven-man bullpen. San Diego optioned David Morgan this evening, per the MLB.com transaction tracker. They didn’t announce a corresponding move and seem likely to activate Yuki Matsui from his season-opening groin strain tomorrow. Jeremiah Estrada began a rehab stint this week as well.
The Padres can option Kyle Hart to clear one active roster spot. Their only other optionable reliever (aside from Mason Miller) is hard-throwing rookie Bradgley Rodriguez, who has a trio of holds and has allowed only three runs across 14 1/3 innings. He’d be tough to send down. They’ve held the out-of-options Ron Marinaccio all season. He has allowed 10 runs over 16 2/3 frames in a low-leverage role.
There’s still no defined timeline on Joe Musgrove or Nick Pivetta. The former has yet to resume throwing off a mound after a setback in his recovery from elbow surgery. Pivetta went down with a flexor strain a couple weeks ago and might be months off.
I would only keep Marquez from that trio. Buehler has shown that he’s now journeyman starter/long reliever instead of middle of rotation level starter and Waldron being a knuckleballer gives me no confidence. Knuckleball pitchers could have great season one year and then immediately have replacement level season after. Plus he hasn’t even had one decent season out of 3 previous seasons. Replacing Buehler and Waldron with Canning and Giolito is the way to go, imo.
If you held my feet to the fire, I think they Option Hart and DFA Waldron with hopes that he clears Waivers and accepts the plane ticket to El Paso.
As I understand, Waldron has to accept the plane ticket to El Paso since he has only 1.107 years of service time.
He doesn’t *have to have to*… but he would. Lol
@Gwynning
I mean, Waldron could technically force the Pads to release him, but the CBA says he has no right to refuse the assignment to become a free agent.
This is where the difference in my mind between players with less than 3 years of service time who cannot refuse the assignment versus those with 3-5 years of service time who can refuse the assignment, but forfeit their salaries (as I understand) is a little bit murky to me. Functionally, the only difference seems to be the league “approving” of them asking to become a free agent and no longer getting paid versus not approving.
You’ve got it down, in a nutshell. And players with 5+ can refuse an Assignment but retain their pay.
And Waldron could retire, but again, he would accept the assignment. 😎🤙🏽
Gwynning, This is the way.
Outright Waldron and Marianicci, Buehler to relief is a likely scenario
You could Outright them but only after they clear Waivers… I’d still use Hart’s Option instead of DFA’ing Ron Burgundy Marinara! He won’t clear Waivers, but I suspect Waldron *could*
I would do the option of a few guys for a couple of weeks to see how Koe is doing and make sure Cannong and Gio are good to go.
Then, DFA train to get the better guys back in BP.
Two very viable plans right now but both may be utilized eventually depending on JM NP.
It’s the Marquez and Marinaccio goodbye party tonight, raise your glass!
I agree on hart and Waldron. Could even add Morgan or the soon to be called up Matsui or in Bradgely in order to stash German in BP for protection against injury / inability of Joe or Nick to return.
I’d even consider a DFA of Wandy hoping someone picks up at least the league minimum of his salary.
Ron hasn’t been lights out so even though it was smart to start with him on roster, he may just be a guy you have to let go to save a potential SP for later.
I wonder if Ron clears waivers. I sure prefer Bradg on roster if it comes to that
I’d worry that Ron wouldn’t based on last few months (including WBC). If Bradg had to go down for 15 days just to buy some time to see how other SP return to mlb, I think I could live with WB taking his innings out of pen for 2-3 weeks. WB has been really good 1 time thru a lineup all year except 1 outing. Overall, I agree with you that Bradg is likley to reduce the effect of losing Adam in free agency. I’m still hoping to retain Adrian.
I can see B-Rod and Hart being sent to minors several times this year as needed. But with Canning and Estrada onboarding soon, and Giolito in 2 weeks, it might be inevitable that RM is DFA’d. Doing that sooner retains B-Rod who is a dawg and much-preferred (for me anyway) than RM. It will be interesting to see what they do with RM.
As for Buehler and Marquez, we don’t know the status of Pivetta and Musgrove. Even with Canning and Giolito entering the fray soon, it’s quite possible that both WB and Marquez remain in the season-long plans. This is the first season/time I’ve ever heard Niebla talk about using openers/tandems before. Maybe that will happen until things are sorted out.
No matter which way it goes. If JM and NP come back, someone is leaving and SD should be better for it in the end.
I talked to Rueben briefly in ST. Told him to keep working his magic on all of these newly signed guys. His response while chuckling, “It’s getting harder and harder.” My reply – if it was easy, they would let me do it!
I think you are right about the expansion of ideas by using the openers. The BP and SP personnel combo does tend to look like that could work.
Next year is going to be so interesting (assuming the lockout doesn’t kill the season). Most of the Padre rotation is gonners except Vasquez (our ace!). FA signings will be necessary – they’ll have to make a splash or two. And maybe try to promote Mendez or stretch a RP into a SP. AJ and Niebla will be very busy.
Yu will be back. I think his decision was based on knowing he could show up to Peoria in Feb because he was under contract. He didn’t want to retire or void contract and have to deal with all that. He plans to either retire or pitch in SD is my bet based on his actions.
Yes, new ownership will need to make a splash. King can likely be worked out to stay, maybe even Nick.
Mendez, Lowe, Liz, Sears – one of those type of guys needs to step up for at least a 4 spot, pick up a 5 anywhere.
Waldron had a solid half season stretch in 2024 that was sandwiched between a poor start and finish.
5/11/24-8/6/24
16 GS, 94 IP, 71 H, 23 bb, 87k, 3.05 era, 3.62 FIP, 1.00 WHIP
Sadly we haven’t seen that pitcher since. He looked like he might be a solid #4 type. Fast forward to today and he should probably be either pitching in AAA or on a team with less high aspirations.
I think he’ll be the first casualty over Buehler.
Wandy Peralta needs DFAed. He can’t get a little league team out and will escort every inherited runner home on a red carpet. All the fans know when he comes in that it’s time to go home, but for some reason the manger has no idea.
Stammen hasn’t been using Wandy in high leverage spots since the first week of the season. I think he’s aware.
What’s going on with Randy Vasquez?
23 to 25: 8% BB, 14% K, 7% swinging strikes
2026: 8% BB, 25% K, 12% swinging strikes
That’s a massive change
Got stronger and added an mph or two to his fastball, by all accounts.
Yup, velo uptick. Thank you Ruben Niebla 🙏
He increased the velocity of his 4 seam FB by 1.3 mph and increased its usage by 10.2%. He increased the usage of his curveball and changeup substantially as well He cut back on usage of his sinker by 7.5%.
He has also been working with Yu Darvish a lot.
Teachings of Niebla and Yu, plus the guy figured out that athletes need to take care of their body, and so he really shaped up and eats right – night and day diff from a year ago.
Perhaps we can wait on promoting Giolito until he starts getting Low-A hitters out.
Or until he can get his FB velo over 91 mph. Tonight he threw a handful of FB at 89-90 mph. That won’t get MLB hitters out.
He has to be rostered by May 15 according to contract.
May 17 I mean
25 days after signing. He got spanked in AA today, only striking out two in 4 IP while giving up 5 runs, 3 earned.
On the bright side, a still 19-year-old Ethan Salas is absolutely destroying AA. He had a 3-hit game today to raise his slashline to .325/.413/.588/1.001.
Time to end the Waldron experiment
I’d package Waldron Marinaccio Matsui to the Angels for Yusei Kikuchi and cash
Why? Change of scenery candidates
Angels bullpen has the second highest era in the league. Bringing in Matsui and Marinaccio could improve the unit
Padres adding Kikuchi who’s at least shown he can be a solid regular in a rotation more consistently than Waldron but he’s off to a rough start making 22 mill. Padres hoping Niebla can fix him
Angels are already 12-20 they could either try to salvage the season by making this trade or hold on to Kikuchi and hope he rebounds before the trade deadline. Hes also under control for next year and freeing up that money could go elsewhere for the Angels
I like the idea of trading those guys but would prefer some prospects rather than another #5/#6 level SP.
Musgrove is an Astros legend
Good article and what has been on the minds of SD fans for a while now looking down the road from end of ST as this day coming. Nick’s injury and adding Gio added to the confusion.
unfortunately might not see Musgrove or Pivetta again this year…
Especially Musgrove
Brew, I find myself laughing at myself on this topic of which pitchers SD may lose:
Consider: rotation of MK, RV, WB, GM and MW. With that rotation, SD is .5 games back of the mighty (and expensive) 6 headed dragon of LAD rotation.
And here we are being concerned about losing a MW or WB or RM in order to improve the rotation!
Kind of funny if you stop and think about it.
Yeah, 19-11 is the most unlikely of scenarios that I had in mind for April. And given that 2/3 of the batters are slumping, it’s especially silly.
No doubt – I didn’t bother to mention JM, FF (he was hitting in ST), MM, JC, and FTJ.
Padres can void the final two years of Pivetta’s contract (2027-28) if he does not return to the field by Aug. 22.
And probably will but adding the year at 5 mil will be a though. 14 mil in 27 to recover and then 2 cheap years (averaged).
Seems like it’s a good problem to have
Is Estrada expected to be back in the pen soon? How is he looking?
Padres adding Giolito jammed them up.
Everything was nice. Flow was in order even with Canning rehabbing and Pivetta potentially returning late in the season. Vasquez was out to a great start. Marquez and Buehler were pitching well. Bullpen was flowing.
Giolito was that third trip to the buffett when nothing looks appealing but you don’t want to leave the booth until you have eaten just enough for that sick feeling to arrive.
Padres are going to have a stomach ache for a month or two.
I’d do everything I can’t to get rid of Cronenworth and call up Song. DFA Waldron and resign him to minor league deal if he clears waiver. Try and do the same with Marinachio and Marquez. Option back Hart and move Buehler to bullpen as an opener or long relief.
Billy – you would keep Nick over Jake right now? At least Jake can cover the entire infield capably.
I don’t understand the ire directed almost solely at Cronenworth lately by fans. Cronz is in one of the worst hitting slumps of his career, but so too are Merrill, Tatis, Manny and Fermin. Based upon this track record, I expect Jake to bounce back to career averages over the course of the season. Given that he’s the only player who can backup SS, and can also play 3B and 1B when needed, his value to the team is huge. How would you replace him? Song can play 2B and 3B (definitely not SS), but his hard-hit rate in AAA is as bad as Cronenworth’s has been in April. Jettison Cronz for an unproven guy who’s never played MLB?
I totally agree with your sentiment about Cronenworth. There are way too many years left on that contract and too much of a track record for them up dump him off a single bad month when he’s slumping.
One minor nitpick on Song though is they have been playing Song at SS in AAA lately. He has more innings there than at 2B or 3B. I don’t know if he’s actually good there defensively, but they seem to think it’s worth exploring so maybe one day he could be a viable SS option
I think Song at SS in AAA is just because they can experiment and there is a need.
Marquez starts today, then King, and Vasquez rounding out the White Sox series. When they head to SF, the turn gets interesting.
I would expect Buehler to start game 1, game 2 (May 5th) I expect Canning to be activated and make his debut in a Padres uniform. Game 3 the 6th should feature Marquez. I don’t think they’re in any rush to activate Giolito so long as they’re getting 5 quality innings from Buehler/Marquez.
I do think when the time comes where they have to activate Giolito (middle May), and assuming those 2 veterans are pitching decently still, that Buehler would be the one they considering moving to a long relief or as a 6th man type, just because he’s done it before and Marquez has not.
In that scenario, I could see Marinaccio being DFA’d. He’s been getting hit hard and isn’t striking guys out. It would be a shame to lose him for nothing, though. Tough decision.
All of that I agree with and why I suggest a short option of Bradg for 15-20 days to buy a little more time. WB can take his innings during that time and that gets us down the road to see how Gio and Grif are performing and see how Joe and Nick are recovering.
I just don’t think they can afford to option BRod right now. He is their 4th best reliever right now and has seen high leverage time.
Buehler entering the bullpen wouldn’t be to replace a high leverage arm, it would be only to replace a long guy like Marinaccio or Hart. Hart can be optioned, Marianccio would be DFA. Yuki and Estrada is reinstated.
Then you have 8 BP guys: Yuki, Wandy, Buehler, BRod, Estrada, Morejon, Adam, Miller.
Starters: King, Vasquez, Canning, Giolito, Marquez.
This is the staff I believe when it’s said and done.
They can get rid of Buehler if he struggles and bring back up Morgan, Hart, Alek Jacob
agree with all of that. BTW, as a corresponding move to sending Morgan down they activated Estrada today not Matsui, which I found a little surprising.
Ooo, ty for the update.
That is interesting, but makes sense considering we already have too many lefties. So it makes sense to trade a righty-for-righty who have similar middle-to-high leverage roles.
Idk if anyone here reads “Letters to AJ” substack, but he had a great piece on Wandy Peralta tipping his pitches AGAIN, this time against the Cubs this week.
The Cubs were reading Wandy’s changeup grip while standing on 2nd base and relaying it to the batter mid at-bat.
Wandy has a history of this.
I’ve long cautioned and expressed patience with him, but…
Would love to see his contract bought out so we can explore other options at this point lol.
I def thought Matsui was more ready than Estrada but Hart for Matsui would have made more sense on a personnel swap.
Just got my Padre Report and Estrada is quoted as saying he gained about 8 pounds in 10 days. He said ““You can’t tell a Mexican, all right, go home, go eat,” Estrada said Friday afternoon with a laugh. “Like I might enjoy that.” One day he ate 12 tamales and his velo is back up to 98.
I’ll check out the Letters to AJ, thanks. Surprised Peralta would let that happen given his experience in the league.
Wandy is full on keep him or release him and hope to save league minimum on another team. Pick your poison.
What is the word on Joe Musgrove? All I hear is that he’s playing toss…
He hasn’t been on a mound, so he is at BEST, months away from returning. Still feeling pain in his elbow when throwing his breaking pitches like his slider/curveball
Yea, that’s the last I heard on the radio. Not good.