Links for Tuesday….
- Baseball America's Ben Badler tweets that the Red Sox have signed speedy 17-year-old outfielder Roberto Rosario from the upstart Dominican Prospect League for $150K.
- The Red Sox might be in a terrific position to take advantage of the Ryan Howard contract fallout, says Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal.
- FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal interviewed former Mets' executive Tony Bernazard, who was fired last year. It's a very interested read, give it a look.
- MASNSports.com's Ben Goessling explores the financial savings the Nationals could enjoy if they delay calling up Drew Storen.
- Meanwhile, MLB.com's Joe Frisaro says the Marlins aren't going rush Mike Stanton to the big leagues.
- Dusty Baker denied a report that the Reds turned down extension talks, tweets John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer.
- Didn't get enough Ryan Howard extension reactions yesterday? Not to worry, there are plenty more pundits weighing in today. ESPN.com's Buster Olney says that many baseball people now feel that Howard, "a star in his prime," is overpriced, and the Phillies might regret the contract long before it expires. ESPN.com's Keith Law agrees, writing that he laughed when he heard the news. Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer says the contract may be an overpay but it represents "the cost of doing business," and Todd Zolecki of MLB.com says the Phils had to either pony up for Howard or risk letting him walk after 2011.
- Meanwhile, USA Today's Bob Nightengale suggests Howard's deal could be the beginning of a slew of mammoth contracts for baseball's sluggers.
- John Tomase of the Boston Herald notes that modifications in Fangraphs' UZR model make Jason Bay's defense look a whole lot better. Fangraphs' latest UZR update included adjustments for specific ballparks like Fenway, and improved Bay's 2009 UZR from -13.8 to +1.9. As Tomase indicates, Bay and his agent probably would've liked that change made before Bay signed his four-year deal this winter.
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Giants have discussed promoting Buster Posey earlier than June.
- In his MLB.com blog, MSNBC's Keith Olbermann speculates on who would be next in line for each managerial job in both the National League and American League.
- Also at MLB.com, Peter Gammons has a column up that addresses a few intriguing what-if questions, including what could have happened if the Red Sox had acquired either Alex Rodriguez or Mark Teixeira.
i think howard will leave the critics eating their words personally.
I said the same thing about Vernon Wells how long ago? The sad part is that the reaction to that deal was actually more positive.
one thing has nothing to do with the other
Critics are not calling him a bad player.
The point here is the urgency that they felt they had to sign him to this huge contract.
It is a bad contract because of the circumstances and the market — not just about Howard’s future production.
You have a great defensive catcher like Mauer at a rare offensive position making close to just about 20 mil a year. Then you have Howard here making 25 mil annually.
A 1st baseman hitting a bunch of home runs is not rare. It is much easier to find a good 1st baseman than any other position. (Besides DH I suppose)
Again, they could have waited (No — they SHOULD have waited). They didn’t wait and still offered a massive contract. It doesn’t make any sense. I don’t care if Howard posts another 1.000+ OPS season (very unlikely) They could have still signed him cheaper — that is the point.
Unlike the other dumb contract negotiations with Holliday and Bay (where the market was very thin), other teams actually CANNOT go near the guy. So what was the rush?
I’m pretty sure Buster Posey saw some time in the majors last year.
Good point, forgot about that. Thanks.
Olbermanns article provides absolutely no insight. If you’re going to write something about that topic, at least have an idea. I find that saying “No Clue” is completely unacceptable. At least throw out a name. Do some research on their minor league system for names. Anything.
Consider the source…
Yeah that article was really half assed. Even the clubs he did name names for, there wasn’t a lot of thought put into any of them.
I didn’t even read the comments before I posted almost the same exact thing about his joke of an “article”.
This isn’t his day job. It’s not even his side job, which is NFL Sunday Night Football. It’s his own blog that mlb links to. Relax, fellas, it’s not Peter Gammons or Ken Rosenthal, or someone else that reports/follows baseball on a regular basis.
I don’t know why the Phils needed to make this extension, out of risk he was going to leave after 2011. Is there anyone else that would pay him this much? Already went over this in the first Howard thread, but I don’t know why anyone thinks this was a good move to make sure he stayed. If they were confident in going up to 25 million until he’s 37, then they could have just kept outbidding others in FA until they hit that number, because again, there aren’t that many (if any) other teams that would be willing to go that far.
“modifications in Fangraphs’ UZR model ”
Good! Perhaps it won’t be quite as useless now.
The metrics are only useless if you don’t know how to use them..
No kidding…. I can’t wait until they fix their formulas so Ben Zobrist is no longer worth more than Albert Pujols. Quite the “gaffe” if you ask me.
The saddest part is, people on this site endorse fangraphs metrics even if they defy all conventional wisdom.
Did you ever think that maybe conventional wisdom is wrong?
Nobody on FanGraphs would argue that Zobrist is better than Pujols, or that he’ll be better than Pujols going forward. But based on their data and calculations, which one could certainly disagree with, Zobrist offered slightly more value than Pujols last year. And that makes a decent amount of sense, when you consider that Zobrist played elite defense at 2B/RF while Pujols was nothing special at 1B.
First, I want to say that Zobrist is a great player and there are I really respect the work that the people over at fangraphs do. It is all very interesting and is a welcome resource in my opinion.
That being said, if their metrics say that Zobrist is “worth” more than Pujols, when its fairly clear that Pujols is the best offensive player in the game, while holding any positive value in the field is suspect at best.
Who is to say that their assessment of Zobrist’s defense is even accurate? How is it certain that they aren’t over compensating for the fact that he can play two positions? While we’re at it, why are RBI and runs scored considered irrelevant when the game is measured in terms of runs? Granted they certainly not the only factor to consider, but useless? That, I just can’t believe and haven’t found anyone who can give me a good enough answer to.
That’s the biggest legitimate knock against FanGraphs WAR, I would argue, is the accuracy of UZR. Zobrist almost certainly isn’t as good as UZR says he was last season, and frankly, if you ask anyone at FanGraphs, they’ll agree with you. But UZR is the best that we have right now, and it’s calculations say that Zobrist was really damn good last season. That doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll sustain those numbers for 2010 and beyond.
The biggest problem with FanGraphs is how people use it. You have to take one season with a grain of salt. I mean, of course Pujols is a better player than Zobrist. One season where Zobrist was ever so slightly better doesn’t outweigh the other eight seasons where Pujols continued to be arguably the game’s best player.
WAR isn’t the end-all, be-all, it’s simply a quick reference that attempts to quantify every portion of a player’s performance. One season of data is nice, but two seasons is better, and three seasons better than that, and so on.
And FanGraphs has numerous statistics, primarily RE24 and WPA/LI, that take context into account, so a player is given credit for success in high-leverage situations.
I understand you completely. WAR is where they come up with those dollar figures, correct? WAR in principle is really impossible to detect year to year from the plate, too. For instance, David Ortiz when he was praised for all of his walk off hits a few years ago.
Is it fair to assume that a replacement player would hit about .250 in those situations? Who knows? Especially given that certain players are apt to hit certain pitches better than others, etc. It’s a very complicated issue and its cool that fangraphs attempts to put a number on it.
Thanks for the info. It was appreciated.
Do you find the +1, +0.5, -1, etc., positional modifications that go into WAR to be problematic as well? They strike me as arbitrary and subjective. I understand that positional modifications are necessary, but the precise values are far from scientific…
Ranger pitcher CJ Wilson, via twitter, gets to the heart of the matter by asking the important question on the minds of many; “How many times could ryan howard circle the globe with 5-dollar footlongs with his new contract?”
His conclusion? “Some really shaky and inconsistent math- I’m at brunch so I don’t have earth’s circumference +latitude stats but he’s only gettin 1 lap max”
Merely one lap? Clearly the Phillies got a good deal here…
my math may be off… but I got about 2.99 times for his extension. That’s a lotta sub.
at the equator
He couldn’t make it even 1/5 of the way around the world. the circumference of the earth is 131,480,184 feet. Even if the subs were one dollar, he still couldn’t make it around the globe once. Add in the 5 dollar factor, can’t even make it a 5th of the way around.
This man is correct. So inquiring minds can see the numbers: breaking it down using only the $125,000,000 extension total and circling the globe at the equator (24 901.55 miles or 131,480,184 feet, as said above)… At $5 a foot you can travel 25 million feet, or 19.01% (less than 1/5th) of the total distance.
Advanced metrics are always going to have problems when they’re reliant on subjective data (UZR with field impact, WAR with positional impact). They can be modified according to popular sentiment.
However, more basic stats like OBP, BA, RBI, etc., are always objectively immovable.
This is the reason some of us get frustrated on these boards; “Zobrist has a better WAR and therefore is a better player” is too-often the supposed end-all-be-all in a discussion.
Metrics, especially advanced metrics with their subjective elements, are merely tools; not facts.
That’s the point though.
It’s not that WAR is wrong in saying that Zobrist is better. It’s that people are wrong in assuming that WAR claims to be gospel, because the people at FanGraphs will quickly tell you otherwise.
I agree 100%. I’m just airing the frustrations I have with the widespread abuse – in terms of interpretation.
I was always siding with UZR in terms of defense with Bay… now I’m wishing we had resigned him instead of, ugh, Mike Cameron.
I like Cameron and think he is undervalued to most Sox fans. Plus Bay’s trends were becoming scary. Last few years he was sacrificing average and K’s for power. Once that power starts to fade with age you get into a bad situation.
This is where (*gasp*) scouting comes into play. Some people still put value in watching a player perform, and saying, “I don’t care what the numbers say, this guy is not a liability in the field”, or “I don’t care what the peripherals are, this guy is throwing smoke and he’s just a small bit of confidence away from being an ace”.
after reading tony bernazard’s interview…i find it hilarious he is crying over being the scapegoat…after everything he put Willie through..I cant wait til Willie’s tell-all book comes out this summer….
Bernazard – bitter much?
Way to take responsibility Tony. May as well call up AT&T and cancel your service. That phone ain’t ringing any time soon.
I love it…what comes around goes around…i cant wait til Willie drops it on the Wilpons and Tony B., Omar was the ONLY one in his corner..Jerry Curl Manuel will also be in the book too..
Jerry Curl Manuel… awesome nickname! hahaa
I was unaware of this tell all book by Willy. Really looking forward to it now though!