Links for Thursday, as the Phillies attempt to get their offense going…
- Padres GM Jed Hoyer tells FanGraphs contributor Mike Lee that trading within a division makes sense at times. The entire interview is worth a read.
- In a clip for FanHouse TV, former Mets GM Steve Phillips explains what he meant when he said he would deal Stephen Strasburg for Roy Oswalt.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo breaks down this year's class of draft-eligible catchers and describes Yasmani Grandal's development into a top prospect.
- David Patton, who was designated for assignment when the Cubs had to make room for Bob Howry, has cleared waivers and re-signed with the Cubs, according to MLB.com's Carrie Muskat (via Twitter).
- Chipper Jones told 790 the Ticket in Miami that he might not play next year, even though he's under contract (transcript on Sports Radio Interviews, hat tip to USA Today). Chipper has gone back and forth on the issue this year.
- Angel Pagan is a better player than Jeff Francoeur for 2010 and beyond, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- The Phillies are more likely to trade for a third or fourth starter than an ace this summer, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports. Knobler hears that the Phillies may match up best with a team looking to shed the salary of an expensive starter.
- Drew Pomeranz pitched well in front of a dozen or more scouting directors, writes ESPN.com's Keith Law. Meanwhile, teams have questions about righty Anthony Ranaudo's medical history.
- Yahoo's Tim Brown and Jon Heyman of SI.com believe Stephen Strasburg will make his MLB debut on June 8th, though both writers remind us that the date could change (Twitter links).
- David Golebiewski of FanGraphs says Carlos Pena should show more plate discipline and pull the ball if he wants to sign a big free agent contract this offseason.
I’m glad people are realizing Pagan is a good, talented, complimentary player. I was so tired of hearing people constantly bashing him b/c he made gaffes on the bases and in the OF. Yes, he needed to improve his fundamentals and instincts, but he wasn’t going to learn by riding the bench.
That Frenchy’s got an arm like a cannon is indisputable – and desirable defensively. Still, his plate discipline, extended slumps and anemic OBP are worrisome enough to make at least some Mets fans imagine the future without him. Meanwhile, offensively, Pagan is a little too good to ‘waste’ on a 4th outfielder position on a team that does not make the most of their offensive potential even when they are on fire. Assuming Beltrán does come back I really would like to see both him and Angel in the outfield in whichever position suits them best. They both have bats (and legs) we need!
Since Frenchy is terrible, Pagan’s bat plays well in center, and Beltran probably shouldn’t play centerfield for health reasons, there’s a very obvious solution here.
DFA Bay? (j/k)
Also, I wouldn’t touch Pena’s next few years with a ten foot pole for the kind of money he’ll want.
The way he’s doing, I wouldn’t be surprised to him sign a Beltre/Abreu style one year deal to reestablish value. I can think of a fair amount of teams who might be willing to risk it for that forty home run power he’s got.
Sure, and I wouldn’t blame them. But take a look at his top five similar hitters through age on baseball-reference. They all fell off around the age he is now. This could just be a sign of a sharp, early decline. If it takes multiple years to sign him, I’d pass in a heartbeat.
Watching that Steve Phillips interview made me feel dumb. He must be completely out of touch with baseball. I’m sure we can all understand the concept that prospects may not pan out and veterans who’ve done it before have a good success rate, but when that prospect is a once in a decade talent who they can put in the rotation right now then it’s just a complete joke.
This is just wrong on so many levels. They could trade a guy like Stammen or Lannen plus prospects so they can have an MLB ready pitcher, but they paid a 15M bonus to Strasburg, how can they trade him? Then he goes on to say that Oswalt has an affordable contract. Wow, try telling that to all the teams who are on the edge of their budget. My head hurts.
Steve Phillips needs to stop talking. Forever. Please, just stop.
Like bigpat says, I feel like I just got stupider listening to him babble.
Steve gives me hope. If this guy can be a GM, then anyone can be a GM too.
“former Mets GM Steve Phillips” There is a reason he’s a FORMER GM, and yes he could not have possibly been more wrong, what he should have said was this: “Look, I’m Steve Phillips, everyone with an IQ above room temperature should stop watching now.”
Phillips needs to focus more on overcoming his supposed sex addiction and less on trying to make a name for himself by saying something controversial. Can you imagine the fan base reaction if the Nats dealt a stud like Strasburg for a year and a half of a who’s 10 years older? Yeesh…
Maybe the Marlins should respond by dealing Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison for Paul Konerko.
With an arm like Jeff Francoeur’s you would have to wonder if he could ever make the transition to pitching. He pitched in high school, usually closing out games. I’m not suggesting he should do this, it’s just something he could consider. He certainty has hit like a pitcher lately….
i did not mean to “like” this. i meant to like the “puppy that lost his way comment…classic
Steve Phillips reminds me of the movie Billy Madison during the academic decathlon, after Billy talks about “The Puppy Who Lost It’s Way”…. This should be the response to what Steve Phillips says: What you just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I’ve ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having heard it. I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul.
Ok, a simple “wrong” would have done just fine, but uh…
Steve Phillips is like Billy Madison minus the funny. In a word: crap.
Is that it Steve, did the penguin tell you to trade for Mo Vaughn? lol (hopefully other people get the Billy Madison reference!)
Steve Phillips regularly makes so many people wonder how he could possibly be employed as an analyst and how he was ever employed as a GM. It WAS the Mets so helps make sense of the GM part.
Of course Phillips would trade Strasburg for Oswalt. This is the same guy who traded his family for a fat intern.
During a radio interview this morning here in Seattle Steve Phillips stated he would rather give up premium prospects for Oswalt and his market value contract than rent Cliff Lee and take the draft picks for next year when he walks, he must have a huge man crush on Oswalt
Pagan is much better than Francoeur. Rarely he’ll get a big hit or a hit in general. Though a powerful arm, Pagan has speed to get to the ball, which is more useful (personally). Pagan has gotten the big hits and steals when he gets the chance. If/When Beltran returns, it’s time for Pagan in right field.
I’m glad a GM with a brain finally is speaking up. OF COURSE – you should trade within your division.Look, the purpose of a trade is to improve your team. You would rarely ever take back less talent than you give up (attitude/financial considerations being the obvious exceptions). Of course, teams evaluate talent differently but the principle holds true. I would be pissed if my GM consistently made deals where he thought he was getting the short end of the stick.So, let’s assume that when you make trades you feel that you are getting the better end of the deal. In that case, your opponent is weaker – you are stronger. Who better to trade with than someone you face an unbalanced number of times? You want to exploit that weakness that was created by making the superior trade.I get that GM’s don’t want to face someone who they traded and then goes and tears it up on their new team. But that’s a really lame excuse. Again, your goal as a GM is to make your team better. You do that at the expense of your opponents. The more unbalanced the trade the more excited you should be to deal within your division.
Yes if a GM is going to obviously fleece another GM in a deal, then one would prefer it be against a division opponent. The problem with trading within the division is that many times GM X is trading away potentially more valuable future talent to GM Y for known present talent. So it does make some sense that the GM making the “win now” move doesn’t want to face that future talent if it develops, and the same goes for the GM making the “future move” in that there is PR liability as well as getting burned by the player you just dealt.
I want to note that I would like to see more interdivison trades happen, I was just pointing out the flip side of things and saying that I can understand where most GMs are coming from.
“so I’m going to wait until his numbers even out”
He’s not a .215 hitter, that’s due to a .223 BABIP because his LD rate is only 10%. So yeah it will go up, but his OPS is .645, it was .634 before the trade last year, and it was .653 in 2008. So outside of his BABIP being above .350 with the Mets last year, he’s basically been the same player for the last 2 seasons plus this season.
Francoeur is at best a 260/330 hitter. That’s at best. He’s more likely to be 230/300. If he had a shorter swing like Moises Alou (who also swung at almost everything), he’d be a lot better.
“but how many RBI’s does he have?”
In 1993 Ruben Sierra had 101 RBIs while hitting .233/.288/.390 on the season.
So why does it matter how many Francoeur has? He is a below average baseball player.
RBIs, his arm, and ability to play hurt don’t help his hitting.
He has low strikeout numbers (I wouldn’t consider 90 low though) because he swings at everything. So often his outs will be groundouts, popouts, or flyouts.
He’s a nice guy, he just doesn’t have enough talent.
“Isn’t the whole point of hitting to score runs? So doesn’t that make the number of runs he puts in a very important number?”
-The point is to score runs, the best way to do that is to get on base. The number of runs he drives in or scores is dependent on his teammates, so I dont judge a player by how well his teammates are at doing their job.
“90 is low in todays game, especially for a guy who has 30 HR power”
-He has hit 29 HRs once in his career, he’s only been over 20 once
“Francoeur shut everyone up when he was hitting well”
-No he didnt, it’s called a hot streak. He didn’t shut anyone up.
“Sorry the guy can’t hit .400 all season long”
-Batting .400? How about he keeps his OBP over .300 for a season.
“(so something really worked, he didn’t just feel good and go on a hot streak).”
-It’s called having your BABIP shoot up to over .350 during his time there
“You want Francoeur to be more patient at the plate… but how about the fans try having some patience first? ”
-Oh, like 5 years of patience? When he still hasn’t learned the strikezone?
— There are few stats out there more irrelevant than RBI’s. We have moved way beyond the era of looking at just batting average, runs, and RBI’s. Francouer is a terrible hitter.
— He had a great half season as a 21YO rookie. He had one league average offensive season as a 23rd old in 2007. 2008 was just an awful year – arguably the worst hitter in baseball (barely passed an OPS of 650). 2009 was even worse while with the Braves. He was the worst hitter in baseball (sub 650 OPS). The 2nd half he was very solid.
— To understand the 2nd half of 2009 you have to dig into the numbers. You need to understand that Francouer consistently posts a 280 or so BABIP. For August, September and October that number rose to a 355 average. That’s called luck. Guys like Francouer don’t suddenly improve their BABIP by 75 points. That spike help drive his other stats like BA, OBP, and SLG. Also helped with his counting stats.
— Francouer is not as bad as his May numbers reflect. Just like last seasons August and on numbers were a streak of good luck – his May has been nothing but awful luck.
— Francouer is simply not a good baseball player. He may get really hot for a month or two or really slump for a month or two. Once you remove those outliers you end up with a corner outfielder that produces like a weak hitting 2nd baseman. That simply is not good enough to cut it as a major league starter in RF.
1. Yes he hasn’t been with the Mets for a year, but he’s still the same player he’s been for the last 5 years, expecting anything else is ridiculous.
2. His Career OBP is .309, wow you showed me, showed me he still sucks
3. His OBP is below .300 this year, it was below .300 before the trade, it was below .300 is 2008, and it was below .300 in 2006 – See a pattern?
4. If he’s hitting .450 he can still be a bad hitter, because I understand the concept of small sample sizes, over his career he’s been a bad hitter, try to defend that all you want.
5. I never said Howard wasn’t a useful player, but he’s not a 25m/year player, not an elite hitter, etc.
6. He may posses 30-HR power, but it’s happened once in 5 years, dude can barely crack 20- because he has no plate discipline and swings at everything.
I don’t think one can call BABIP “almost completely useless” especially when the small sample size (308 PA in this case) is being compared to the players career number (over the course of 3121 PA).
You really should go read a primer on BABIP – and other advanced metrics. It would help you out a great deal.
BABIP is designed to help isolate things like luck. I never suggested that it was the only relevant stat to use. However, it is often the first thing to look at when a player slumps or starts hitting like crazy. The player rarely makes fundamental changes to his game. With Francouer we know this to be true because of the huge SAMPLE SIZE we have.
It all boils down to luck and sample size. Francouer has an established track record. We have seen him go off for 2 months in the past. That was sandwiched between bad performances. This latest streak was very noticeable since it came post trade. But at the end of the day he is still a very flawed hitter. If you want evidence of that look at his May numbers.
His swing hasn’t improved. His approach isn’t yielding better results. He is still the same player he has always been – a fringe ML talent.
1) What stat out there accounts for all of these things? Or any combination of them?2) What I’m trying to say is that when you have a sample size of over 3000 MLB PA, then it’s safe to assume that it would be the more accurate indicator than the sample size of only 300 PA.3) Let me put this in terms of a stat that you like, RBI’s. Lets say a player isn’t much of an RBI guy, over the course of 2500 PA he’s averaged only 60 RBI’s per 700 PA, then during one half of one season (~350 PA, and after getting traded to a worse offensive team no less) this player knocks in 45 runners. Wouldn’t you say that this particular player just had a hot streak/good half season? That this one half doesn’t nullify the rest of his career numbers, and that he will most likely regress to the mean.
“But I really don’t know how many more times I can reiterate myself here and tell you that his swing was fixed.”
Players and teams are always saying this type of BS. Just like when a guy says he’s in the best shape of his life after surgery. Francoeur is basically saying “No, I wasn’t bad. I just had a hitch in my swing.” Players are too proud to admit they’re bad hitters. Seriously, he’s had the same number of ABs in April and May. He’s hitting 148/198/198 and has only had 2 extra base hits all month (in addition to 10 singles).
“But other stats are not reliant on such things to be accurate” Almost every stat would be more accurate if they could account for the things that you think BABIP should.
Look, right now I’ll just agree to disagree, and after the season is over we’ll see what Francoeur’s numbers look like with his new swing.