You could make the argument that Jayson Werth has been the best everyday player on the best team in the National League this year. He has a .291/.381/.521 line, and leads the league in doubles and pitches seen per plate appearance.
That will play in Werth's favor when he hits free agency later this year, but remember that Werth will be up against Carl Crawford, who is two years younger and has a better defensive reputation. Unlike Crawford and many other members of this year's free agent class, Werth has only been a full-time player for three years. Werth will get a multi-year deal from someone, but the details are harder to predict.
Agent Scott Boras says Werth is more comparable to Matt Holliday (who signed for $120MM) than Jason Bay (who signed for $66MM), but it's time to see what you think:
Will Jayson Werth sign for more than $100MM?
Click here to take the survey and here to view the results.
if werth signs a 100 million dollar contract in the off season, i wouldn’t be shocked if Gerald laird did 2
If Omar Minaya gets a hold of Laird, he might sign for 7 figures.
…u mean like he did with R.A. Dickey?….or like he did with Jose Valentin?….or like he did with Fernando Tatis…?….the Omar hate-a-rade is strong !
So you’re saying he’s a good GM?
Omar Minaya is one of the best GMs the Phillies have ever had.
Perfectly, tremendously said
Omar Minaya is one of the best GMs the Phillies have ever had.
So you’re saying he’s a good GM?
He won’t, nor does he deserve it.
Boras is on crack.
5/80 max and that’s still overpaying!
If you want the appropriate statistical comparison look at Johnny Damons last year in New York and compare it to Jason Werth’s season this year. Nearly identical. Werth is 2 years younger than Damon was at the end of that season, however both players stats were influenced by great talent around them and ball park factors. No smart GM will give him anywhere near 80 million over 5 years, in addition to forfeit a first round pick for this guy. This could end with Scott Boras and Jason Werth sitting in a bar in January wondering why nobody is calling them.
Exactly.
What?Triple SlashDamon’s 09 season – 282/365/489Werth’s 10 season – 292/381/521Home/Road SplitsDamon 09 – 915 OPS (Home) vs 795 OPS (Away)Werth 09 – 902 OPS (Home) vs 856 OPS (Away) – Note his 2010 split is big but most seasons in Philly have shown him to hit as well away as he does at homeWAR:2009 Damon – 3.62009 Werth – 4.8 – 2010 Werth (with games still to be played) – 4.4Fielding:2009 Damon – (-6.0 UZR/150)2009 Werth 4.5 UZR/150 (2010 UZR is the lowest of his career. He has never posted a negative UZR. Werth’s fielding has ranged from above average to excellent over the past 5 years)Age:Damon was heading into his age 36 season last year.Werth is heading into his age 32 season next year……………………………..Let’s start with the basics. Werth will be a full 4 years younger than when Damon left the Yankees. That’s no small gap.Werth was coming off a better season – a difference of over a full Win. This comes on the heals of another 4+ WAR season in 2009 and a 5 WAR season in 2008. Damon’s last season of 4 WAR was 2002. He’s never had a 5 WAR season. Werth’s upside is dramatically higher than Damon’s. Werth also has proven that he could hit for power outside of Citizen’s. Damon, meanwhile, has shown his power totals were tied directly to the new Yankee Stadium.Werth is an excellent defender, despite UZR’s poorer rating this year. Damon is anywhere from significantly below average to average.I can see how someone just looking at the surface would think the two are reasonable comparisons. However, once you dig deeper you have to come to the conclusion that they are, in fact, very different players in very different situations.
no, not really. Very similiar players. Numbers are fun arent they? Hell i think I can even find numbers supporting that I deserve the AL MVP. Both players are in their 30’s, there is no Upside you speak of. Damon was better for a longer stretch, much stronger track record succeeding at a park that doesnt play small. Werth is the most overrated offensive free-agent to hit the market since Aaron Rowand.
Then Billy Beane will sign him for 3/48 mil deal and trade him in the middle of 2012 season
I think he will end up getting somewhere between Holliday and Bay which is still an overpayment but some poor fool will do it.
I am a Phillies fan, and I like Werth, but he is probably the fifth or sixth best player on the team (Halladay, Hamels, Howard, Utley, Oswalt, maybe even Polanco). Werth has empty numbers except for the HR yesterday. He gets HR and RBI when the game has already been decided (reminds me of ABreu). He plays in a good HR ballpark and has little pressure in a lineup that surrounds him with talent. Aside from being on the Yankees in that stadium with that lineup, this guy doesnt hold nearly as much value for any other team. He isn’t someone you build around. If he gets a contract larger than Bay’s, someone will regret it.
and speaking of bay, can you say BUST? bay has been a huge disappointment plus he’s had injuries. he’s out for the season i believe
I still think he can bounce back next season unless this injury seriously starts affecting his play.
To be fair, he is still a very good fit for the Phillies and it gives them a power right-handed bat, they have enough left-handed bats and he plays a good all-around game. I don’t think he is worth the money he will get on the open market but he is still a very good player who fits in very well with Phillies line-up.
Probably worth more(meaning more important) to the Phils than he would be to any other team.
And while some of his numbers are empty, I never saw Werth dog it like Abreu did towards the end of his Philly career. He plays like he cares at least a bit and he makes hitters around him better (as much as any individual hitter can). I could never say the same thing about Abreu.
Completely agree. I love the guy, he’s a good player, exciting to watch — but he’s NOT a cornerstone-type of player.
Completely agree. I love the guy, he’s a good player, exciting to watch — but he’s NOT a cornerstone-type of player.
Using the simple Peak at 32 therom then subtracting .5 WAR each year and then multiplying total expected War by 4 (Which I believe is what is used at fangraphs) has a contract for him at 5/76 or 4/65. Obviously that’s not perfect but that would probably make the deal JD Drew signed 4 years ago a good comparison, though obviously Boras is going to be comparing to the person who signed for the most ie Holiday.
Disclaimer: Scott Boras gets 49 votes.
Werth doesen’t deserve 5/80 or anything like that. His WAR shows to be around 4.6 if I’m not mistaken. He’s a nice player, great athlete, hits for power and steals too. But th problem with him is that he isn’t a guy to build around, just a complement. I the Phils lose him this would be bad because they lost that RH hitting complement to their predominently LH hitter lineup. I think 15$/per 4 years is fair. Or at least where talks should get started.
Good point on 4/15M. His numbers are no better than Bays, actually worse if you really look, except Werth is better with the glove.
Boras will blow off with his mouth regarding his clients before the season every year, recall 2 years ago and him yacking about how Varitek was worth 4/48m? Sure he was.. Don’t be surprised if Werth ends up something in that 4/15M per figure if the Yanks jump fast on Crawford. Can’t see anyone else going to get into a bidding war over him, nor foolish enough to overpay.
He’d be an ideal fit to play LF in Atlanta, but there’s no way the Braves will pay anywhere near 4/$60 or 5/$80 for him. It’s outside the budget, and I see a long contract for a guy approaching his mid-30s becoming another Derek Lowe-type headache about year three.
Go look at Jason Werth’s closest comps on Baseball Reference. They all fell off a cliff in their early 30’s. Not saying I expect that from Werth, but the team that gives him that fifth year will be very very nervous.
The problem is that no matter what the vote, Boras knows that he and Werth only need one vote out of 32.
no one besides the mets were willing to make that ridiculous bay deal. the only reason they made it is their philosophy is we’re one big player away. plus omar’s and manuel’s jobs are on the line. in other words, they’re desperate and not being logical. i think omar simply dug a bigger grave for himself. i would like to see werth back as a phillies fan but what do we do with brown?
I say that and realise I don’t have a problem with players being overpaid (unless it’s my team).