Odds & Ends: Nakajima, Butler, Managers
On this date six years ago, the Dodgers released a 20-year-old righty named Joakim Soria, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery. Soria was later signed by the Padres out of the Mexican League and then snagged by the Royals in the 2006 Rule 5 draft. He's now one of the game's best closers. On to today's links…
- The Astros signed Dominican righty Luis Abad for a low six figures bonus, tweets SI's Melissa Segura. Back in May, Blake Bentley ranked the new Dominican prospects for MLBTR, placing Abad in a tenth-place tie and calling him "one of the most projectable pitchers you'll see."
- I took a look at Neil Walker's fantasy baseball prospects for 2011 over at RotoAuthority.
- The Mariners are interested in Japanese middle infielder Hiroyuki Nakajima, says U.S.S. Mariner's Dave Cameron. Nakajima may be posted by the Seibu Lions and could be a bargain this winter. Patrick Newman of FanGraphs has more on Nakajima.
- Royals first baseman Billy Butler changed agents, going from Doug Rogalski to Greg Genske of Legacy Sports, tweets ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. Rogalski has to feel burned, as Butler is heading to arbitration for the first time this winter.
- Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts interviewed Eric Wedge for the team's managerial opening yesterday, reports ESPN's Bruce Levine. Larry Stone of the Seattle Times reports that the Mariners interviewed Bobby Valentine yesterday and have Lloyd McClendon on the docket this week.
- Billy Wagner talked to MLB.com's Mark Bowman about his retirement.
Hardest-Throwing Free Agent Relievers
Thanks to the average fastball velocity data available at FanGraphs, we can make all kinds of fun lists. Today we'll compile the hardest-throwing free agent relievers (minimum 20 innings in 2010).
1. Kyle Farnsworth – 94.9
2. Jesse Crain – 94.8
3. Kerry Wood – 94.4
4. J.J. Putz – 94.0
5. Jose Contreras – 94.0
6. Joaquin Benoit – 94.0
7. Guillermo Mota – 93.9
8. Frank Francisco – 93.4
9. Rafael Soriano – 92.9
10. Jason Frasor – 92.8
Bobby Jenks gets an honorable mention, as he'll top the list at 95.0 if he's non-tendered. The White Sox had a ridiculously hard-throwing bullpen this year; Matt Thornton is at 96.1 but we assume his option will be picked up. Also of note: the Cardinals' Mike MacDougal (94.7) just missed our innings cutoff.
Trade Market For Shortstops
As many as seven teams could be looking for help at shortstop, but the options aren't very interesting beyond Juan Uribe and Hiroyuki Nakajima. Let's see if the trade market offers anyone useful.
Non-Tender Candidates
As we mentioned earlier, Jason Bartlett, J.J. Hardy, and Ryan Theriot are getting expensive through arbitration and could be shopped around. Theriot will probably be non-tendered and Hardy may get another shot with the Twins because their alternatives aren't much better. The Rays, though, could trim several million dollars by trading Bartlett. Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez could be in-house alternatives.
Probably Off-Limits
We've heard the odd Stephen Drew rumor here and there over the years, but new Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers probably won't trade him this winter. Drew had a strong year, and the D'Backs need him at short.
Potential Surpluses
A few teams might feel they've captured a rare surplus of shortstops. The Rays are one, with Bartlett, Brignac, and Rodriguez. The Red Sox could be another, given the strong play of Jed Lowrie this year. Generally we'd expect the older, more expensive player to be shopped. In this case that's Marco Scutaro, who's set to earn $5MM next season.
Chris Nelson will never supplant Troy Tulowitzki as the Rockies' shortstop, but they'll probably prefer to keep Nelson around in the second base mix. The Cubs have strong organizational shortstop depth with Starlin Castro and Hak-Ju Lee, perhaps making Darwin Barney expendable.
The Padres' Everth Cabrera, Dodgers' Chin-lung Hu, and the Angels' Brandon Wood may have fallen out of favor. Cabrera's offense took a dive this year, though the Padres don't have better options. Hu has spent time at Triple A in each of the last four seasons and is behind Dee Gordon and Ivan DeJesus Jr. on the team's depth chart. Wood had his longest big league trial this year, but he still hasn't figured it out.
Veterans Under Contract
Jack Wilson ($5MM) and Jamey Carroll ($1.8MM) are a couple of veterans who may be available. Wilson is a much pricier Adam Everett, so he'd be tough to move. Carroll logged a surprising 573 innings at shortstop this year with a career-best .379 OBP.
Logan White To Interview For Mets GM Job
12:55pm: White is interviewing for the Mets GM job, confirms Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times. Hernandez adds that White has a new deal in place to remain with the Dodgers in his current role if he does not get the Mets gig.
9:45am: A potential new candidate has entered the mix for the Mets GM vacancy in Dodgers assistant GM of amateur and international scouting Logan White. ESPN's Tony Jackson reported early Tuesday that White will interview for the Mets GM job on Friday. The implication is that Dodgers GM Ned Colletti granted White permission to do so. However, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News talked to non-Mets league sources who said White is not a candidate for the GM job. Instead, they're interested in hiring him in a scouting role to work with the team's new GM.
Red Sox assistant GM Allard Baird interviewed for the Mets GM position yesterday. ESPN's Adam Rubin reports that Baird spoke to Mets COO Jeff Wilpon, acting GM John Ricco, and other team executives. The Mets will interview White Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn today and former Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes tomorrow. Sandy Alderson, the reported favorite, interviews Thursday or Friday.
Meanwhile, Dan Martin of the New York Post spoke to Athletics GM Billy Beane, who unsurprisingly supported the idea of the Mets hiring Alderson. Martin's colleague Joel Sherman explains why he feels Alderson is best qualified for the job.
Arbitration Eligibles: St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
- First time: Kyle McClellan, Brendan Ryan
- Second time: None
- Third time: None
The Cardinals have one of MLB's smallest arbitration classes this year with first-timers McClellan and Ryan. Both should be tendered contracts and neither will be expensive. Ryan was abysmal with the bat this year, but he could win a Gold Glove.
Free Agent Market For Shortstops
As usual, the free agent market for shortstops is barren. There are no stars, and solid regulars are hard to come by. The Orioles, Twins, Reds, Astros, Cardinals, Padres, and Giants could be seeking help at the position. Let's take a look.
Technically A Free Agent
Even after an off-year, 36-year-old Derek Jeter is the top free agent shortstop. Everyone assumes he'll re-sign with the Yankees. Will he even receive legitimate offers from other teams? If something causes Jeter to look elsewhere, it'd shake up the market at this position.
Also Probably Unavailable
The Braves are widely expected to pick up their club option on Alex Gonzalez. Jose Reyes will be back with the Mets, and the Tigers are expected to retain Jhonny Peralta.
Tolerable Regulars
Juan Uribe, Orlando Cabrera ($4MM mutual option), and Cesar Izturis topped 850 innings at shortstop this year. Only Uribe was useful with the bat. Uribe has cause to seek a multiyear deal, since he's one of the better free agent choices at both middle infield positions.
One wild card, though he's not technically a free agent, is Hiroyuki Nakajima. The 28-year-old is expected to be posted by the Seibu Lions after a .314/.385/.511 campaign that included 20 home runs in 579 plate appearances.
Potential Regulars
Edgar Renteria may be pushed to an early retirement, but if healthy he'd still be able to find playing time. Miguel Tejada, Jerry Hairston Jr., Adam Everett, and Cristian Guzman are not inspiring shortstop options, but they all logged at least 450 innings there this season or last. Everett is the defensive whiz of the bunch, while Tejada still provides a little offense.
Utility Types
Some of the players listed above will find only utility roles. Other free agents like Nick Punto ($5MM club option), Craig Counsell, Juan Castro, Bobby Crosby, Julio Lugo, Geoff Blum, and Omar Vizquel will be scrapping for playing time and could sign minor league deals.
Non-Tender Candidates
The non-tender candidates could shake up the market, because they're just as interesting as the regular free agents. Jason Bartlett, J.J. Hardy, and Ryan Theriot are the big names. Bartlett is here because he'd be due more than $4MM next year, but given the terrible free agent class and his fine '09 season the Rays would likely find a taker on the trade market if they want to move on. Hardy is a similar story – most of you expect him to be tendered a contract, but he may be traded. Theriot is likely to be cut loose by the Dodgers. He served as the Cubs' main shortstop for three seasons before being supplanted by Starlin Castro this year.
Summary
Once again, the free agent market for shortstops is bleak. Uribe should be popular, and Nakajima plus the non-tenders could provide a boost.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Rick Ankiel
The Royals signed outfielder Rick Ankiel to a one-year, $3.25MM deal in January. I liked the contract, thinking the Royals could extract some value out of him at the trade deadline. GM Dayton Moore succeeded on that front, pairing Ankiel with Kyle Farnsworth and cash to acquire Jesse Chavez, Gregor Blanco, and Tim Collins from the Braves. Ankiel has a $6MM mutual option for 2011. The Braves are likely to choose the $500K buyout, making Ankiel a free agent. Let's examine his situation.
The Pros
- Ankiel's power returned in his 101 plate appearance stint with Kansas City. He slugged .467 with 11 extra-base hits.
- He hit a respectable .256/.339/.462 in 177 plate appearances against righties this year.
- The sample was small, but Ankiel's 10.8% walk rate this year was a career best.
- He's capable of playing all three outfield positions.
- Ankiel is likely to sign another one-year deal at a lower base salary.
The Cons
- Ankiel was terrible with the Braves and has never been good at getting on base.
- Ankiel fares poorly against lefties.
- He can't stay healthy. This year a quad strain limited him to 74 games.
- Ankiel is not much of a defensive center fielder, based on UZR.
- He's represented by Scott Boras, so his price could be inflated despite the poor season.
The Verdict
When healthy, Ankiel provides some pop against righties. It'd be difficult to guarantee him more than a million bucks, and you could argue that the deals signed by Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones, and Corey Patterson are the best comparables. Ankiel will have to earn his playing time in 2011.
Arbitration Eligibles: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
- First time: Joel Hanrahan, Lastings Milledge, Andy LaRoche, Delwyn Young, Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf
- Second time: Wil Ledezma
- Third time: Zach Duke, Ronny Cedeno
The Pirates have three locks to be tendered contracts: Joel Hanrahan, Ross Ohlendorf, and Ronny Cedeno. They're all penciled into key roles for 2011 and none will be expensive.
Position players Milledge, LaRoche, and Young are on the bubble. Milledge probably doesn't have an everyday role on next year's club, but he's cheap enough to keep around as a fourth outfielder. LaRoche and Young would fill less prominent bench roles, but it's possible the Pirates could trade or non-tender one or both.
Karstens was designated for assignment in November of last year and went unclaimed. He's probably still expendable. Despite a 6.86 ERA in 19.6 innings (inflated by one outing), there was a lot to like about Ledezma's stint with the club. He averaged almost 94 mph on his fastball, his peripherals were strong, and the team is light on lefty relievers. He may still be non-tendered, but I expect the Pirates to try to retain him.
Duke, 28 in April, is likely to be non-tendered if there's no trade interest. A month ago, 88% of MLBTR readers predicted the lefty will be cut loose. Duke needs a good defense behind him, but if healthy he has his moments.
Chipper Jones Plans To Return Next Season
Nearly eight weeks after undergoing reconstructive surgery on his left knee, third baseman Chipper Jones told Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com that his recovery is going well. While the veteran's knee won't heal in time for him to play in the National League Championship Series or the World Series, Jones sounds confident that he'll make it back at some point in 2011.
"I don't want the last memory of me to be laying out behind third base. On top of that, I was playing really well and I was swinging the bat really well. I was healthy and I was running the bases good. My frame of mind was really focused. I just want to keep going," said the 38-year-old.
Jones has two years remaining on his deal and is guaranteed to make $13MM for each of those seasons. The Braves hold a $7MM club option for 2013 but that option will automatically vest if the veteran plays in 123 games in 2012 or averages 127 games over the next two years. The six-time All-Star played in 143 games in 2009 but appeared in just 95 this past season.
Odds & Ends: Orioles, Rodriguez, Cubs, Nakajima
Links for Monday evening as the Giants look to shut the door on the Braves in Atlanta..
- The O's might not be able to solidify their coaching staff as soon as they would like to, writes Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com.
- Francisco Rodriguez's grievance hearing over being placed on the disqualified list is set for next week but there will not be an immediate decision rendered, writes Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.
- Giants bench coach Ron Wotus is interested in managing the Bucs, writes Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com.
- According to Shannon Drayer of ESPN Radio, four candidates will interview for the vacant M's managerial job this week, including former Houston skipper Cecil Cooper.
- Cubs pitching coach Larry Rothschild informed the team today that he will pick up his option for 2011, a major league source told ESPN.com's Bruce Levine.
- The Pirates disclosed (via Twitter) that former Blue Jays skipper John Gibbons was in Pittsburgh today to interview for the team's managerial opening.
- Saitama Seibu Lions shortshop Hiroyuki Nakajima is on his way to being posted, according to Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times (via Twitter) who passes along a report from Yahoo Japan (Japanese link). In a piece for Fangraphs, Patrick Newman called the 28-year-old Japan's second-best hitter behind Norichika Aoki of the Yakult Swallows.
- More and more teams are discovering that homegrown starters are crucial to success, says Alex Speier of WEEI.com.