The ALCS started off with a bang last night, just a few hours after MLBTR readers voted to almost a 50-50 split about who they thought would win the series. The NLCS kicks off later tonight with a pitching matchup that's as good as it gets: Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Halladay. If that's not enough, we'll get Jonathan Sanchez vs. Roy Oswalt in Game Two, and then Matt Cain vs. Cole Hamels in Game Three. What more could baseball fans ask for?
The Phillies certainly have the advantage on paper, but anything can happen in short series.
Who will win the NLCS?
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I know it’s early in the voting period but I am surprised. I figured easily 60/40 Phillies.
I figured 80/20 Phillies. I can’t believe anyone is voting for the Giants. They have great pitching, but the Phillies have a huge edge when it comes to offense and defense.
really, besides some flukes and J Ro hitting a double, where is their offense?
Giants in 6
Giants in 6.
They’ll lose the two against Halladay 1-0, but win the other four 1-0.
Are you on acid?
They scored 4 runs on halladay so far. Your predicition isnt going well.
Giants in 5, now that they’ve beaten Halladay.
Wow only 50/40 for Phillies! Do people really think that or is this just like a Phillies hating thing. Last time I checked the Giants offense is rather weak compared to the Phillies. Giants have the better pen and the starting rotations are about even(slight edge for the Phillies maybe). I say Phillies in 6.
Mostly I agree, but I think the difference in offenses is smaller than is being made out. Phillies’ team wOBA is .328 to the Giants .318. Granted, the Phillies had a ton of injuries, but the Giants started the year without Posey or Burrell and with Rowand in center everyday instead of Torres. If you go position by position, the Giants are fielding the better player in center, at first, behind the plate, and in left. Shortstop is a tossup. Third-base goes to the Phillies, but not by much because Polanco is dinged up. The two spots where they have an advantage is right field and second base, although it should be said that they have a HUGE advantage at those two spots. Phils have the better offense, but it’s closer than people think. I’m thinking Phillies in 7, but a Giants win wouldn’t shock me.
I am undervaluing the Giants offense probably but I think your overvaluing them. Your saying Aubrey Huff> Ryan Howard? Id also say Victorino and Torres are about even.
I am undervaluing the Giants offense probably but I think your overvaluing them. Your saying Aubrey Huff> Ryan Howard? Id also say Victorino and Torres are about even.
freddy sanchez is a better fielder than utley. utley is teh far better player. but there is no advantage defensively. also ross and werth are almost the same. i think first base a close, and short stop goes the the phillies. left field probably goes to the phillies as well.
Sorry but Ross is not the same as Werth. Werth is a lot better than Ross. I mean come on Ross was released by the Marlins.
sorry. i read to coment i was replying to as fielding. i think they are even as fielders. werth is the far better overall player.
Phillies in 6. Even though I want the Giants to win. Like this if youre going to watch Game One Lincecum vs. Halladay. I know I am.
I have a hard time seeing this series go 7 games. Phillies have a slight advantage in starting pitching (Halladay > Lincecum, Oswalt > Cain, Hamels > Sanchez), a BIG advantage offensively, and the difference between the two bullpens is not nearly what the numbers in the regular season showed (Lidge has been in 2008 form for the past month and a half now, Madson looks better than I’ve ever seen, and Contreras/Bastardo/Durbin/Romero is a capable and dynamic group). Phillies in 5 or 6.
You need to switch Cain and Sanchez. Giants have always hit Oswalt well and have beat all of those 3 once this year.
I think the Phils will win in 6 but not counting out my Giants by any means.
The Giants also hit Halladay around pretty well back in April, though that was due in large part to a lot of seeing-eye singles. Oswalt this year has been decent against San Francisco; each of his four starts against them was some combination of 6 or 7 IP and 2 or 3 ER. The Phillies can’t hit Sanchez worth a damn though. I see the Phillies winning Hamels vs. Cain matchups and the Giants winning Oswalt vs. Sanchez. Blanton vs. Bumgardner (if it happens) could go either way–Joe has been fine most of the year until the 7th inning, so if Manuel pulls him after 6 he should leave the Phils with a close game. And of course, Halladay vs. Lincecum should be epic and could go either way. I give a slight edge to the Phillies here since Halladay is a little more consistent than Lincecum, but they could very well each pitch shutouts. I think the Phillies have a slight edge, but this series should be a war of attrition.
There’s some stat that says winning the first game means you have something like a 70% chance (Not sure the actual number) of winning the series. I think it’s a stronger effect when you consider this series. If the Giants can beat the invincible Roy Halladay on his home turf it’s going to be a huge psychological victory. On the other hand if Halladay completely shuts them down, same effect opposite team.
“but anything can happen in short series.”A best-of-seven series is a short series?
Best of 7.
Whoops, you’re right. Changed.
I think the point is that over the 162 game regular season, the difference between these teams is 5 wins. So obviously they aren’t too far apart in talent-level. In that sense, the playoffs are always kind of a crap-shoot.
I think the point is that over the 162 game regular season, the difference between these teams is 5 wins. So obviously they aren’t too far apart in talent-level. In that sense, the playoffs are always kind of a crap-shoot.
Giants in 6. Giants have the better rotation (Lincecum = Halladay, Cain > Hamels, Sanchez Blanton), and easily a better bullpen. The offenses aren’t too far apart, and if they can keep Utley and Werth to a minimum they shouldn’t have too many problems, and the Giants’ superior ability to hit home runs (particularly with Burrell and Posey and Torres over DeRosa, Molina, Rowand) should prove valuable in games with few baserunners. The Phillies need to get seven innings out of their starters every game, otherwise someone other than Ryan Madson or Brad Lidge is going to be pitching, and that doesn’t bode well. Each game will be close, but I see the Giants taking at least 3, 4, and one each of the Lincecum/Halladay and Sanchez/Oswalt matchups
That is simply fantastic.
That is simply fantastic.
Giants in 6. Giants have the better rotation (Lincecum = Halladay, Cain > Hamels, Sanchez Blanton), and easily a better bullpen. The offenses aren’t too far apart, and if they can keep Utley and Werth to a minimum they shouldn’t have too many problems, and the Giants’ superior ability to hit home runs (particularly with Burrell and Posey and Torres over DeRosa, Molina, Rowand) should prove valuable in games with few baserunners. The Phillies need to get seven innings out of their starters every game, otherwise someone other than Ryan Madson or Brad Lidge is going to be pitching, and that doesn’t bode well. Each game will be close, but I see the Giants taking at least 3, 4, and one each of the Lincecum/Halladay and Sanchez/Oswalt matchups
Phillies in 4. This Giants team has great pitching, not much else. This Phillies team is obscenely disciplined and patient at the plate, and everyone plays solid to exceptional defense. The same cannot be said for the Giants.
I take that back. Phillies in 5.
not a whole ton of plate discipline tonight for the phills. swung at alot of pitches out of the zone. and ibanez cost them 2 runs with a ball he should have caught.
I like your enthusiasm Roberty. The Phillies will not beat Sanchez tonight. Sanchez could very well beat himself though, we Giants fans have seen it happen plenty of times. However, he has done well in two tough games in a row coming into tonight so there is reason to be optimistic for the Giants.
Last nights loss is a huge setback for the Phillies as it was the ONE pitching match-up that favored them. If Sanchez deals tonight this series is going to get very stressful for Philly. If the Giants get a couple of runs early against Oswalt, and Sanchez throws up a couple of 0’s to start the game, the momentum will not shift back to Philadelphia.
If the Phillies can get under Sanchez’s skin in the 1st inning then the game could go entirely the other way.
As a Braves fan, I have seen a lot of the Phillies and Giants lately. The Giants starting pitching is great, and their bullpen is solid but I think beyond that, they don’t much of a team. I also don’t think Matt Cain is that great, and Sanchez is hit or miss. The Giants certainly stepped it up in game one. They won the series against the Braves 3-1, but they didn’t play particularly well against a team that I think is half as good as this Phillies team.
Giants in 7.
What do the ’98 Braves, 2000 Cardinals, 2001 Braves, 2002 Cardinals, 2005 Cardinals, 2006 Mets, 2008 Dodgers and 2009 Dodgers all have in common? All of those teams swept a team in the NLDS and went on to lose in the NLCS. History is on not on the Phils side right now.
Not only that, but the Giants in my opinion have a better pitching staff that could shut down the Phils.
The Giants have a 1.91 ERA and 60 runs allowed over September and October, not including last night. The Phillies are 3.49 and have allowed 107 runs over the same stretch. It boggles my mind that people consider the Philly pitching superior to the Giants pitching.
It baffles me as well Bill.
Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels are no doubt good pitchers, but they don’t make up for the rest of the pitching staff. Jonathan Sanchez has been the best pitcher the last few months. Since late August, only Carlos Zambrano has had a lower ERA than him. Also, I’m surprised people are not mentioning Bumgarner when talking about the trio of Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez. He can (and probably will) be a huge surprise in the playoffs.
I agree with regards to Bumgarner, and Sanchez could come up HUGE this evening and take any momentum the Phillies might think they have away. If the Giants win tonight I doubt we will see Blanton in this series at all. The will come back with Halliday in Game 4, and I’m sure that the Giants are in his dome now, having beaten him twice this year.
However, I am cautious in my enthusiasm because I know that Sanchez can revert back to bad Sanchy at any time. If he gets off to a good start though, and the Giants tag Oswalt for a couple early, it may be over.
I’m so surprised the Giants don’t get more credit here. The Giants rotation has just as much firepower as the Phillies rotation in my mind, and let’s face it, they’ve already accomplished mission number one and that’s get a split in Philly. If they sweep Philly on the road, I’d even go so far as to say Giants in 5. They aren’t getting enough credit, the Giants have the better pitching overall with a better bullpen, and good pitching beats good hitting. I have the Giants moving on to face the Rangers.
I honestly think the Giants are going to win in five or maybe sweep if they win tonight. The Phillies have no offensive threats other than Utley and Werth. Howard is neutralized by lefties and any offspeed pitch in the dirt.
The pitching for both sides is impeccable, I agree, but I give San Francisco the edge. (Lincecum = Halladay, Oswalt > Sanchez, Cain = Hamels, Bumgarner >>> Blanton)
Except Oswalt < Sanchez. (Unless bad Sanchez shows up.) But, there is strong reason to feel good about Sanchez right now, and choosing him for game 2 was a GREAT decision by Bochy, due to his swing through stuff.
The reason that the Giants are getting little respect is that ESPN has a very strong East Coast bias (which they should, that is where the money lies), and that runs are flashy.Putting aside propaganda, and the runs tunnel vision, the Giants are in better position to win this series. (this is written after they won game one). Runs scored means nothing out of context. Runs Scored needs to be compared to runs allowed for it to mean anything. If you didn’t put it in context, then you couldn’t explain why the Rockies, Brewers, Cardinals, Marlins, and Diamondbacks were all not better than the Giants, which they clearly were not. The Phillies scored 132 runs more than they allowed in 2010, and the Giants scored 114 more runs than they allowed. That difference is 16 runs over 162 games, or less than one percent. When adjusted for park, and that the Giants played in many more games in the Western Division, in pitching parks, and against stronger pitching, that difference is actually not significant and maybe even in favor of the Giants. The Central Division is a pretty good control group, since both teams played about the same amount of games against all of the teams in that division, both at home and on the road. The Phillies record against the Central Division was 21-19, while the Giants went 28-14. For this to really be clear, one would have to look at how the pitching rotations synced up, and when the key Phillies were not in the line-up. But then you would have to adjust for before Posey/Burrell as well.So, I’m not so sure that in reality, if this series ever really favored the Phillies at all other than in the mindset of ESPN fans, and Runs junkies. For all of you west coasters like me, here are a couple alternative acronym definitions I have developed for ESPN:Eastern Sports Promotion NetworkEntirely Steinbrenner Promotion Network
I think the Phillies in 6. The reason Oswalt was 1-3 against the Giants this year was because he got matched up against Linceccum in his 3 losses and the Astros got 1 or no runs against him. Hamels has been the best pitcher in the National League since the All Star break and Cain has been terrible in his career against Philly. The way I see it going down:Game 1: Loss already. 4-3Game 2: PhilliesGame 3: PhilliesGame 4: GiantsGame 5: PhilliesGame 6: Phillies
I believe the Phillies use Blanton in game 4 by the way.
I actually have it going this way too. I predicted that the Giants have a 33% chance of winning the series IF they split in Philly. That if was based upon a strong confidence that Sanchez was the right pick to start game two, due to his ability to miss bats. Now that the Giants have beaten Halliday I think it is actually swinging in favor of the Giants. Despite comparisons I have seen above, Oswalt is not better than Sanchez (if the good Sanchez pitches tonight), and Hammels is not better than Cain. However, if Cain gets squeezed a bit though, game 3 could easily tilt in favor of Philly given that that game will be played during the day and SF is a much more hitter friendly park when the sun is shining. So, if bad Sanchez shows up, and Cain has to get predictable in the strike zone, then I would say Philly will get right back into this thing. If Sanchez deals tonight I don’t think Philly will be able to recover, and this series may not even come back to Philly at all.A lot of people are saying that the Philly O is slumping. I remember back in April when Philly played a 6 game set on the west coast where they scored very few runs, that ESPN commented upon their sudden slump. They had just played 6 games vs. tough Western Division pitching. Over the past couple of weeks they have been seeing tough pitching too, from teams that are competing, the Braves, Reds, and now the Giants. While Rollins and Ibanez are certainly not hitting to their historical levels, I’m not sure it can be completely chalked up to a slump.Anyway, over the stretch of September and October, not including last nights game, the Giants are pitching 1.91 and have allowed 60 runs. The Phillies are pitching 3.49 and have allowed 107 runs. It still baffles me that someone can say that the Phillies pitching is better than the Giants.