Let's take a look at a few items on the Nationals and Phillies..
- A baseball source familiar with the Nats' thinking tells Bill Ladson of MLB.com that Josh Willingham will most likely be traded before 2011. Yesterday, we learned that the Nats are unlikely to offer the outfielder an extension this winter. Washington controls Willingham for one more season and the slugger's agent Matt Sosnick says that his client has no animosity towards the club.
- An interesting note from the Philadelphia Inquirer's Bob Brookover: Phillies GM Ruben Amaro referred to outfielder Jayson Werth in the past tense when addressing the media today. Most believe that the Phillies are not interested in retaining the 31-year-old, who is sure to fetch hefty offers on the open market.
- Little surprise here, but Amaro says that the club's recent signing of Dan Meyer to a minor-league deal will not preclude them from getting other left-handers, Brookover writes. The GM has made no secret of the fact that he is after left-handed relief this winter and has begun to show interest in Hisanori Takahashi.
Besides Boston, who else do you guys think Werth will/should go?
Tigers could be a fit.
Even if they sign Dunn and possibly V-Mart?
One or the other but not both, I’d say. But obviously Dunn in particular would lessen both the chances and the need.
A’s can use him for sure, even if they sign Beltre, though I don’t know if they have enough money to after both. Perhaps if they fail to get Beltre they’d go after Werth?
Angels if they don’t get Crawford.
I just don’t think Werth is going to have the market he expects. Crawford is the prize of the class but when you look at the teams vying for Crawford, they don’t appear to be a match for Werth. I’m thinking he goes to the Sox and Theo is smart enough to let the market develop and not play the games Boras will want to play.
I could definitely see a scenario like this playing out. Werth’s value lies somewhere between Jason Bay and Matt Holliday’s deals signed last summer. He’ll likely wind up closer to the Jason Bay end of the spectrum than the Matt Holliday end. He’d effectively be JD Drew’s replacement in right field after the 2011 season, and it would be reasonable to believe that the Red Sox would have the money and willingness to sign Werth to a JD Drew like deal. Somewhere in the range of 4 years $68 million to 5 years $75million wouldn’t be surprising.
Remember, Boras was the same guy asking for 10/400 and partial ownership in the Yankees for A-Rod in exchange for breaking every record in the book.
thing about it is if the years come down for Werth, thats assuming the market not being what boras thought it was, i can see the phils resigning him. the reason being is that they have offered him already a deal worth 16 million and he turned it down. the annual dollars are not the problem its the years for the phils.
Wonder what the ask for Willingham is?
My guess is a younger version of Willingham under control longer, or a first baseman, or bullpen help, a combo of two of those…I just cant see the Nats getting a good frontline starter for Willingham…
What about Willingham for Loney? I kind of like that idea.
Loney? Isn’t that a lot for willingham?
Loneys value is greatly down. Probably an even trade
That would be a horrible trade for the Nats, Loney’s WAR the last three years barely match Willingham’s and he missed 50 games last season. Loney will make nearly $5 million in Arb. and more in his third year. I’d much rather pay Adam LaRoche the little extra money to man 1B. Willingham is an extremely valuable hitter one of the best LF’s in the league beyond the top tier guys (Holliday, Crawford etc.) his wOBA was .379 last year that is in the great category.
Is it not possible that Willingham’s WAR could be lower if he had played those extra 50 games?
Not really, a big part of WAR is your value over a replacement player, so you are vastly rewarded for actually playing. Your offensive value is tied to your number of plate appearances and, your replacement level value is based on amount of games played. If Willingham would have played in 40 of those 50 games he would have gone from a 2.7 WAR player to a 3.2 just for playing. That doesn’t take into account the fact that he would be producing more runs. If you factor in the batting aspect he would have likely been over a 4.0 WAR, though the likely increase in his slight negative defensive value might have kept him just below posting a 4.0 WAR.
Now it is possible that his bat would have cooled off, some but barring devasting slump he would have been above 2.7 WAR for the year.
That is what makes Loney so troubling, he arleady gets credit for playing almost every game, and has all those extra plate appearances, but his bat just hasn’t been producing that it is essentially a negative.
Well, if the Nats are looking bullpen, Philly might be interested. We have a couple of reasonable pen prospects who aren’t likely to crack the big team, and Willingham fits in with what we’d need, presuming Werth isn’t back; a guy who can spell Ibanez in left, and can be the righty half of a RF platoon with Dom Brown. Apologies to Ben Francisco, but Willingham’s by and large a better player, and he’d be a big help to us.
Even-though its a fair amount of money and moves the Nats have the prospects to get Justin Upton and I`m sure willingham could be involved in that deal somehow. Now after that if they went out and signed a gold-glove calibur second-baseman such as Orlando Hudson that would give them a better defensive team right there. But wait if they also got Pena, they would now have a more balanced lineup and gives them a much better team.
Now just give them some dough to go out and grab a good set-up man and a starter like Javier Vazquez and their team doesn`t really look like a push over.
C-Ramos
1B-Pena
2B-Hudson
SS-Desmond
3B-Zimmerman
LF-Hell lets just go with another signing with someone like Jeff Francour
CF-Morgan
RF-Upton
At first, I thought you were making a lineup. I was like, why in the world would you have Ramos leading off and Pena batting second? It isn’t opposite day!
But I see what you are saying I just don’t like the idea of Francouer in LF…I do in fact like the idea of Mike Morse in left…
I don` really know but with that team a lineup of
1.Morgan
2.Hudson
3.Upton
4.Zimmerman
5.Pena
6.Desmond
7.Morse
8.Ramos
9. Pitcher
I’d rather see Zimmerman hitting 3rd. But seems pretty reasonable
The Nats have Espinosa playing 2nd whose coming along with the bat. He just recently hit for the cycle in the winter leagues and his D is awsome so hudson is not needed. Batter Order would be:
1. Morgan
2. Desmond
3. Zimmerman
4. Pena
5. Upton
6. Morse
7. Ramos
8. Espinosa
9. Pitch
but this is just my opinion of the order if they traded for hudson. i think it would be great if all this happened though.
Still wondering if the Nats can swing an Upton deal without having to include J. Zimmermann or Espinosa. Not sure if a Norris, Clippard/Storen, Marrero, Detwiler, Peacock deal (possibly Bernadina as well) would work.
yeah i kind of don`t know their outfielders and it strikes me that they would want a corner open for if Harper actually becomes that good
Regardless, we won’t see him until august 2012 at earliest…But he has to be up by spring training 2013 or he’s a free agent.
I believe since he didn’t play at all this year he will likely be eligible for a 4 option year (and this one didn’t count as well) so honestly I don’t think he will have to be up until ST 2015…but if that is the case the Nats have bigger worries.
If I’m the Nats I would look to acquire a LF on the cheap who can handle the spot now and maybe move to 1B when Bryce is a ready. A couple of possibilities; Alex Gordon, Allen Craig, maybe Nolan Reimold. Even if they sign a 1B like Pena, LaRoche, Huff etc. they could always trade him if say Harper is ready by next season. That way between Morse, young OF/1B and free agent 1B they would have that position covered.
How would Harper be a Free Agent? He signed an MLB deal that takes him through the 2015 season… I’ve never seen the provision that he has to be in the Majors by 2013.
How would Harper be a Free Agent? He signed an MLB deal that takes him through the 2015 season… I’ve never seen the provision that he has to be in the Majors by 2013.
Ahhhh, Options, nevermind.
Because he would be out of options. I guess he would he traded, but another team would claim him. That’s the problem with ML deals for amateurs.
The Dodgers could use Willingham.
Are the Orioles interested? Jayson could return to his first franchise.
Reds inquired on Willingham last offseason I wonder what it would take to get him this year.