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Archives for November 2010

Free Agent Stock Watch: Mariano Rivera

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It's not often that a free agent class offers not just one, but two first-ballot Hall of Fame relievers, yet that's exactly the situation we're in this offseason. Let's review the stock of the great Mariano Rivera…

The Good

  • Rivera remains the master at limiting base runners, holding opponents to a .181/.211/.266 batting line with just 25 unintentional walks over the last three seasons. His WHIP during that time is a microscopic 0.797.
  • His postseason track record is unmatched in terms of both quantity and quality. His 139.2 playoff innings feature a 0.71 ERA and 0.766 WHIP, and it's been ten years since someone took him deep in the postseason.
  • Although he's a Type-A free agent, the Yankees did not offer Rivera arbitration, so it would not cost a draft pick to sign him. 

The Bad

  • Rivera will turn 41 years old on Monday, and just three men in baseball history (Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Trevor Hoffman) have recorded a 20-save season at that age or older.
  • He's two years removed from offseason shoulder surgery and has dealt with a nagging side injury since the 2009 playoffs.
  • The velocity of his legendary cutter is gradually declining, and his 6.8 K/9 in 2010 is his second lowest strikeout rate since 1998.

The Verdict

Rivera is a free agent in name only, as just about everyone expects him to re-sign with the Yankees at some point. Even so, he's reportedly seeking a two-year deal worth $18MM a season, a price very few teams can match. The Yanks understandably want to limit a contract to one season, but there's no reason to expect Mo to wear anything but Yankee pinstripes in 2011. 

Odds & Ends: Johnson, Webb, Bedard, Ellsbury

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Links for Friday, as the Yankees and Derek Jeter continue negotiating …

  • If you're curious to see which draft picks are changing hands as free agent compensation, check out the constantly updated 2011 Draft Order page at River Ave. Blues.
  • Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports explains that the large number of Type-A and B free agents (35 total) could impact how willing teams are to forfeit draft picks to sign free agents.
  • Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star tweets that the Royals have re-signed right-hander Blake Johnson to a minor league deal. The 25-year-old owns a 4.42 minor league ERA, and he originally joined the Royals in a 2006 trade that sent Odalis Perez to KC and Elmer Dessens to the Dodgers.
  • Brandon Webb, Erik Bedard, Jeff Francis, Chris Young and Jeremy Bonderman are intriguing cost-effective pitching options on the free-agent market, writes Chris Toman of the Sports Network (via the Miami Herald). Each pitcher has seen his career derailed by injury to his pitching arm and will likely be seeking short-term, incentive-laden contracts, but there's a steep drop-off in the market from Cliff Lee to the second-tier starters.
  • Jacoby Ellsbury's reportedly strained relationship with the Red Sox and his attractiveness to potential suitors make him a strong trade candidate this offseason, according to Paul White of USA Today. Boston GM Theo Epstein has hinted that the Red Sox roster is in need of a "restocking," according to White, and Ellsbury could be a good fit for the Padres, Diamondbacks, Angels, Braves, Mets and Cubs.
  • Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports contrasts Paul Konerko's relatively quiet contract negotiations with those of Derek Jeter. Konerko, is coming off a fine season (.312/.393/.584), and he could accept salary arbitration and earn a raise on the $12MM he earned in 2010, but Morosi writes a three-year deal could be mutually beneficial for both parties. White Sox GM Ken Williams has been quiet about Konerko, who is known to have a good relationship with owner Jerry Reinsdorf.

Jeter & Yankees Are Far Apart

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7:39pm: Michael S. Schmidt of The New York Times reports that Jeter is seeking a four- or five-year deal worth $23-24MM annually according to "a person in baseball who had been briefed on the matter."

3:24pm: Close tells Yahoo's Tim Brown that the Daily News report is off base (Twitter link). "The recently rumored terms of our contract extension are simply inaccurate," Close said.

10:12am: Jeter is asking for less than $150MM over six years, according to Jim Baumbach of Newsday (on Twitter).

8:06am: Derek Jeter’s representatives are asking for at least $80MM more than the Yankees are willing to offer in negotiations for the free agent shortstop, according to Bill Madden of the New York Daily News. The starting point for Jeter and agent Casey Close was six years and $150MM, according to Madden, who reports that the Jeter camp is not budging from demands for a $25MM annual salary. Alex Rodriguez’s contract “is at the crux of Jeter’s and Close’s stance,” according to Madden.

The Yankees have offered Jeter multiple deals, including one that would pay the 36-year-old $45MM over the course of the next three seasons. Close suggested that the Yankees' tactics are "baffling," so Yankees GM Brian Cashman encouraged Jeter and his agent to test the free agent market in search of a more generous deal.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post proposes that the Yankees could sign Jeter to a six-year $75MM deal that could become more lucrative if Jeter reaches incentives based on plate appearances. The suggested deal would pay Jeter $20MM per season from 2011-13 and shield the Yankees from the luxury tax.

What’s Next For The Dodgers?

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The bulk of the moves made by the Dodgers this offseason have focused on shoring up the team's rotation, unsurprising after their starters threw the sixth fewest innings in the National League this season. Both Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda were re-signed, and the rebuild was capped off today with the Jon Garland signing. Add in the incumbent Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, and all of a sudden Ned Colletti's team boasts a deep starting staff.

Once the Garland deal was announced, Colletti told reporters that the rest of his offseason goals involve adding a bat, adding a reliever, and sorting out the team's catching situation (team Twitter link). A few weeks ago we learned that the Dodgers were likely to increase payroll next season despite the uncertainty surrounding the McCourts' divorce, and they could free up even more cash by non-tendering Russell Martin, George Sherrill, and/or Ryan Theriot. The $5.19MM they paid to former players Nomar Garciaparra, Orlando Hudson, and Jason Schmidt in 2010 disappears as well.

Colletti reportedly made a serious push for Aubrey Huff, but he's not expected to bid on Adam Dunn even though he's arguably the most dominant offensive force on the market. Colletti is likely do his shopping in the next tier of free agents, and has interest in bringing both Rod Barajas and Scott Podsednik back. Johnny Damon, Rick Ankiel, or Austin Kearns could slot into left field at a reasonable price, but that is nothing more than speculation on my part.

The late game bullpen will return next season in the form of Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, and the upstart Kenley Jansen, but Colletti will presumably look for an upgrade over Ronald Belisario (5.04 ERA) and Ramon Troncoso (4.33) for the middle innings. So far they've added a few guys on minor league contracts (most notably Dana Eveland and Oscar Villarreal), but the safe bet has them adding someone more established this winter.

Matt Klaassen of FanGraphs explained that despite his performance drop-off, Martin is still a fine option behind the plate if healthy. A.J. Ellis and Hector Gimenez would be the only backstops on the 40-man roster if he's non-tendered, and those two have just 143 plate appearances worth of big league experience combined. Barajas performed well for the Dodgers late last season, but Miguel Olivo and Yorvit Torrealba are available on the free agent market as well.

Colletti's done a great job of getting the most difficult part of his offseason out of the way early by locking up the three starting pitchers, but there's still plenty of work to be done. Luckily for him, the winter is still young.

David Aardsma’s Trade Value

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The offseason is less than a month old, but the perception is that Joaquin Benoit's three-year, $16.5MM deal with the Tigers has busted the free agent reliever market. It's possible that the most cost effective bullpen pieces can now be found in trades, and Geoff Baker of The Seattle Times believes that David Aardsma's trade value has gone up without throwing a pitch since the end of the regular season.

Aardsma, 29 next month, emerged as Seattle's closer in 2009, and has pitched to a 2.90 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 in 121 innings with the Mariners. He's 69 for 78 in save opportunities in that time, numbers that are likely to push his salary north of $4MM in his second time through the arbitration process this offseason. Aardsma earned $2.75MM in 2010.

The Mariners, who finished with the game's second worst record in 2010, have a number of holes to fill. They have a replacement closer in waiting in Brandon League, and could shop Aardsma for an upgrade at basically any position not occupied by Chone Figgins, Ichiro Suzuki, or Franklin Gutierrez. As we've seen in recent years, hard-throwing relievers can fetch all kinds of returns.

Matt Lindstrom brought back three non-top prospect minor leaguers in a trade. Kerry Wood returned two low level minor leaguers and salary relief. Leo Nunez brought Mike Jacobs. Chris Perez and another player landed Mark DeRosa. Joel Hanrahan and Sean Burnett were essentially traded for each other. Jose Valverde, Rafael Soriano, Chad Qualls, Ramon Ramirez, Octavio Dotel … the list goes on and on.

The number of teams that could use a guy like Aardsma is 30, for all intents and purposes, but his expected salary will likely limit his market to teams with sizable wallets. Baker speculates about a fit with the Rays, but acknowledges their payroll crunch. The Red Sox are seeking bullpen help and are familiar with Aardsma after his 2008 stint with the team, then of course you have the usual suspects like the Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, Cubs, Tigers, Phillies, etc. All of this is one reason why Aardsma will almost certainly not be with the Mariners come Spring Training, as Baker puts it.

Twins Rumors: Nishioka, Hardy, De Los Santos

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The Twins won the bidding for Tsuyoshi Nishioka earlier today. Here's the latest on the infielder and his impact on Minnesota's offseason plans:

  • The Twins see Nishioka as a second baseman rather than a shortstop, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. If the team agrees to sign the 26-year-old, he'll likely compete with Alexi Casilla for the second base job and Orlando Hudson will likely leave via free agency.
  • From what Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune can tell, the Twins have decided to tender J.J. Hardy  a contract next week, partly since he still appears to have trade value (Twitter link).
  • The Twins removed shortstop Estarlin De Los Santos from the 40-man roster and, after he cleared waivers, assigned him to Triple-A, according to Christensen (on Twitter).

Phillies Interested In Dennys Reyes

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The Phillies search for a left-handed reliever has led them to Dennys Reyes. Philadelphia has interest in the 33-year-old journeyman, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Reyes appeared in 59 games last year and posted a 3.55 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9.

As I pointed out when identifying some potential bargain lefites, Reyes' 2010 numbers look OK, but they're not as impressive as they seem. He posted a better than average ERA, but he pitched to a 5.91 ERA after posting a 0.54 ERA through May. He can induce grounders, but he walks more than one batter per two innings pitched.

This is the first interest in Reyes we've seen reported this offseason, but he's certainly not the only lefty the Phils are considering. Philadelphia has interest in adding former Mets reliever Hisanori Takahashi to their pen.

Dodgers Sign Jon Garland

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The Dodgers rounded out their starting rotation today, signing Jon Garland to a one-year $5MM deal with an option for 2012. The $8MM option vests after 190 innings, a threshold Garland has reached every year since 2002 and the deal also includes bonuses. The 31-year-old will be the fifth starter in a Dodgers rotation that already includes Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda. 

Garland and his agents at LSW baseball turned down contracts from the Rockies and Padres. Colorado offered him a one-year deal with an option, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post (on Twitter) and the Padres offered him arbitration earlier in the week. The former Dodger was a Type B free agent, so he won't cost Los Angeles a pick, but the Padres will obtain a supplementary first rounder in next year's draft for their loss.

Last year, Garland pitched to a 3.47 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in exactly 200 innings for the Padres. The righty has always generated more ground balls than fly balls, but the 52% ground ball rate he posted in 2010 was a career-high. However, defense independent pitching stats including FIP and xFIP suggest Garland's 3.47 ERA was lower than we would expect for someone with his peripherals. 

Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times broke the news and added financial detail on Twitter, Jon Heyman of SI.com also reported financial details (on Twitter) and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports provided information on the vesting option.

Cabrera Helped Tigers Sign Victor Martinez

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Miguel Cabrera knew the Tigers had some financial flexibility this winter, so he told GM Dave Dombrowski he’d be happy to help the team recruit free agents. Dombrowski took his first baseman up on the offer and told him to call up Victor Martinez. Just three weeks into the offseason, Cabrera and the Tigers accomplished their goal, luring Martinez to Detroit with some persuasive words and a four-year, $50MM contract.

Martinez drew strong interest from "at least six teams," agent Scott Pucino said on a conference call with reporters. Martinez says Cabrera’s recruiting was "a good part" of his decision to sign in Detroit, but it wasn't the primary reason he turned down other offers.

"Bottom line, I just want to win," Martinez said. "I came here because I want to win. Anything that I can do to make this team better [and] win, man. I want to do it. I’m just really excited and I just want to win bad."

Martinez made it clear that he'll play any position the Tigers ask him to. Dombrowski says the 31-year-old will be the team's regular DH, catch two or three times a week and back up at first base. Alex Avila will remain the team's primary catcher; Dombrowski expects the precise breakdown to take care of itself.

The Tigers lose their 2011 first rounder for signing Martinez, a Type A free agent. Dombrowski said the Tigers were willing to surrender their top pick for Martinez because it's difficult to acquire All-Star caliber major leaguers.

"For example if we had a straight trade for him, would I be willing to give up a number one type of talent in return for him? The question would depend upon who you’re talking about in any case, but the generality of it would be yes,” Dombrowski said.

The Tigers, who surrendered their first round draft pick last year after they signed Type A free agent Jose Valverde, say they can overcome the lost picks by signing top international free agents and drafting aggressively.

“Last year we supplemented it by drafting somebody in the sandwich pick, Nick Castellanos, that we thought was a legitimate high number one pick, so we were able to fill that role,” Dombrowski said.  

The Tigers have not shied away from talented, but expensive amateur players in recent years and they have Rick Porcello, Jacob Turner and, more recently, Castellanos to show for it.

This offseason the Tigers have been exceptionally aggressive on the free agent market, signing Brandon Inge, Jhonny Peralta and Joaquin Benoit. They're settled in the infield, behind the plate and at DH and they like outfielders Austin Jackson and Ryan Raburn, but they aren't necessarily done their offseason shopping yet. Dombrowski acknowledged that the team may add another outfielder.

How The Top AL MVP Finishers Were Acquired

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Every club is looking for MVP-caliber production, but it's not easy to find. Here's a look at how teams around the American League acquired the players who got the most MVP votes in 2010. If there's one trend, it's that top Rays draft picks did exceptionally well in this year's balloting:

  • Josh Hamilton – Trade - Hamilton's remarkable story has been well-chronicled; Rangers GM Jon Daniels acquired the former first overall pick from the Reds in the 2007 trade that sent Edinson Volquez to Cincinnati.
  • Miguel Cabrera – Trade - Two weeks before Hamilton was traded, the Tigers acquired Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins for a group of players led by Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin. 
  • Robinson Cano – International Signing - The Yankees signed Cano out of the Dominican Republic as an amateur free agent in 2001. 
  • Jose Bautista – Trade - The Blue Jays acquired Bautista from the Pirates for Robinzon Diaz in 2008. Before the Blue Jays acquired him, Bautista suited up for the Pirates, Royals, Devil Rays and Orioles.
  • Paul Konerko – Free Agency - GM Kenny Williams re-signed Konerko to a five-year, $60MM deal after the White Sox won the 2005 World Series. It's safe to call that signing a smart one now that Konerko posted a .282/.365/.514 line over the life of the contract and averaged 31 homers per season.
  • Evan Longoria – Draft - Tampa Bay selected Longoria with the third overall pick of the 2006 draft and he's been playing at an elite level since his 2008 rookie season.
  • Carl Crawford – Draft - The Devil Rays selected Crawford in the second round of the 1999 draft and locked him up to an extension that kept him in Tampa Bay through two of his free agent seasons.
  • Joe Mauer – Draft - Like Hamilton, Mauer was a first overall draft pick. The Twins selected him ahead or Mark Prior and Mark Teixeira in the 2001 draft and extended him after his 2009 MVP season.
  • Adrian Beltre – Free Agency - The Red Sox signed Beltre to a one-year deal, giving him the chance to re-establish his free agent value. The third baseman did just that, clubbing 28 homers and a league-leading 49 doubles while playing stellar defense.
  • Delmon Young – Trade - Young, the third first overall pick on this list, arrived in Minnesota in the trade that sent Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza to Tampa Bay.

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