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Arbitration Eligibles: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds are next in our arbitration eligibles series…

Votto will reach arbitration with a .314/.401/.557 career line in 456 games, including 268 runs, 90 home runs, 298 RBIs, 28 steals, a second-place Rookie of the Year finish, an All-Star appearance, and probably an MVP award.  He'll have no problem making $7MM or more, and he doesn't know if he'd be interested in a long-term deal.

Rotation members Volquez and Cueto will certainly be tendered contracts too.  John Danks' first-time arbitration salary of $3.45MM could be a target, though Cueto has the superior platform year among the two Reds pitchers. 

Bruce isn't going anywhere either.  MLBTR broke the news in June that he will be the Super Two with the least amount of service time this offseason, at two years and 125 days.  Carlos Quentin's $3.2MM might be his goal.

Bray is worth tendering.  He had Tommy John surgery in May of '09, limiting his career numbers.  He was pretty good in 28.3 big league innings this year in his return.  Burton would be slightly more expensive, coming from an $810K salary.  Dealing with asthma and lack of strength this year, Burton spent most of the season at Triple A.  I could see this one going either way depending on how the Reds feel about his health.  His raise would be minimal.

Miller, who was outrighted in July but had his contract purchased in September, will likely be non-tendered for the flexibility.  Nix was outrighted in November of last year and re-signed to a minor league deal.  He was better this year, but was limited by an August ankle injury.  I lean toward the Reds non-tendering him and attempting to re-sign him to a minor league deal again.

The Reds non-tendered Gomes last year coming off a .267/.338/.541 season, re-signing him in February.  He performed worse on a rate basis with more playing time this year, but managed to knock in 86 runs.  Gomes' current contract with the Reds has a $1.75MM club option for 2011 with a $500K buyout.  I'm not sure if they'll find the $1.25MM net price to their liking, but according to Cot's Baseball Contracts the Reds have to release Gomes if they decline his option.  Perhaps that means he's not technically arbitration eligible.

If the Reds let all of their free agents leave and also cut Gomes, Miller, and Nix, I estimate they'd have around $60MM committed.  That'd mean $16MM to work with if payroll is held steady, and perhaps more given this year's attendance jump and playoff revenue.

Rockies Undecided On Olivo Option

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2:52pm: The Rockies have not determined whether they'll pick up their side of Olivo's option, tweets Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post.  Renck says the Rockies are keeping an open mind, with Victor Martinez on the radar.  At #20, the Rockies would give the second-best available draft pick to the Red Sox if they sign V-Mart after he turned down an arbitration offer.

8:11am: The Rockies will exercise their option on catcher Miguel Olivo, tweets Tracy Ringolsby of Inside The Rockies.  By reaching his 110th game played on September 26th, Olivo's club option became mutual and jumped up to $2.7MM.  That means Olivo could still decline the option in search of a bigger payday or multiple years, though he told Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post last month he wants to stay.

The 32-year-old backstop hit .269/.315/.449 with 14 home runs in 427 plate appearances this year for the Rockies.  He caught 935 innings, throwing out 42% of attempted thieves.  His presence in 2011 would again create an uncomfortable situation for Chris Iannetta, who is on a multiyear deal running through 2012.  Iannetta has a 2013 club option he can void if he's traded, which seems like a legitimate possibility this winter.

Mets GM Rumors: Jennings, Hart, Hunsicker

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The Wilpons asked the Marlins for permission to speak to Marlins assistant GM Dan Jennings about their GM opening, tweets ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.  The Miami Herald's Clark Spencer says the Mets asked for permission to speak to Marlins executives Larry Beinfest and Mike Hill as well, but are likely to be denied the chance to speak to any of the three.  It would be odd for the Marlins to allow a division rival the opportunity to swipe a top executive.

According to Newsday's David Lennon on Twitter, former Rangers and Indians GM John Hart would be interested in the Mets' opening but could be expensive.  Hart remains with the Rangers as a senior advisor in baseball operations.  How about a reunion with Gerry Hunsicker, who currently serves as a senior VP with the Rays?  He told Mike Sielski of the Wall Street Journal Saturday that he did not have a burning passion to be a GM again and that "it would have to be a very special situation."

Free Agent Market For First Basemen

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First base is a place for offense, and the free agent market offers plenty of options.  The Orioles, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, White Sox, Rangers, Braves, Nationals, Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, and Giants could be seeking first base help in some capacity this winter.  That's nearly half the teams in baseball, so we could see quite the first base shuffle.

Coming Off Big Years

Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, and Aubrey Huff had well-timed walk years.  Dunn and Konerko each approached 40 home runs, while Huff hit for power and drew 83 walks.  As a Type A, Konerko could cost a new team a draft pick if he turns down an arbitration offer from the White Sox.  Konerko's big year suggests a multiyear contract, though he will head into next season at 35.  Unlike Dunn, he seems open to increased time at DH.  Konerko seems willing to walk away from the game if he doesn't find an acceptable offer.  Dunn and Huff are Type Bs.  Dunn has been a model of consistency with his home run totals, though his walk rate took a dip this year.  For some reason, the common refrain among writers is that four years and $60MM will get him signed.  Memories of Huff's abysmal 2009 season could limit his offers.

Bounceback Candidates

Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, Derrek Lee, and Nick Johnson had strong 2009 seasons but suffered injuries and/or decline in 2010.  Berkman, 35 in February, still draws plenty of walks but had a power outage this year as he dealt with knee and ankle injuries.  Johnson, 32, was limited to 98 plate appearances due to multiple wrist surgeries.  Berkman and Johnson could DH next year.  Lee, 35, dealt with side, hand, back, hamstring, thumb, and foot injuries this year.  Pena, 33 in May, took a nosedive in 2010 but still drew 87 walks.  The Boras client could sign a one-year deal in hopes of returning to his 40 home run days.

Potential Regulars

Russell Branyan, Ty Wigginton, Jorge Cantu, Troy Glaus, Adam LaRoche, Xavier Nady, and Lyle Overbay may view themselves as starters, but could find offers of regular playing time hard to come by.  LaRoche should be OK coming off a 100 RBI season, though his OBP was just .320.  Similarly, Branyan has power but struck out plenty and didn't get on base frequently.

Non-Tender Candidates

Casey Kotchman will be cut by the Mariners after a rough year; he turns 28 in February.  The Dodgers could trade or non-tender James Loney, who hit .267/.329/.395 but would get a raise on this year's $3.1MM salary.  The Rays' Dan Johnson could be cut, though he had a huge year at Triple A and had his moments with the big club.

Summary

First base openings are widespread this offseason.  Dunn, Konerko, Huff, and Pena should be in demand, while the others may have to scramble for work or head to the American League as part-time DHs.  The trade market, covered here, should offer at least one heavy hitter in Prince Fielder. 

Athletics Notes: Payroll, Barton, Stadium

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Let's discuss the latest on the Athletics, with some help from Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle…

  • The A's haven't set their budget yet.  Slusser expects payroll flexibility to be created by the team letting Ben Sheets leave, declining Eric Chavez's club option, and non-tendering Jack Cust and Gabe Gross.  We looked at the team's 12 arbitration eligible players a week ago and suggested that Jeremy Hermida, Conor Jackson, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Travis Buck may also be cut.
  • More uncertainty comes in the form of club options for Mark Ellis ($6MM with a $500K buyout) and Coco Crisp ($5.75MM with a $500K buyout).  Slusser writes that GM Billy Beane expects to have conversations about that next week.
  • Wrote Slusser: "Beane emphasized that he doesn't want to add power at the expense of defense, noting in particular that the team has no intention of moving Daric Barton from first base."  The A's could look at a slew of DH options beyond Cust.  But perhaps Beane's statement rules out a Carlos Pena reunion.
  • Beane is optimistic about getting approval for a new stadium, but it's only a gut feeling.  He believes MLB's blue-ribbon panel will issue its report soon.

Mike Napoli And The Arbitration Process

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One area that's always been murky for baseball fans is the process by which salaries for arbitration-eligible players are determined.  Using Angels catcher Mike Napoli as an example, let's attempt to shed some light on arbitration.

The first conclusion I reached when looking into Napoli's comparables is that there aren't any good ones.  Do you know any catchers who went to arbitration for a third time in recent years?  All the good ones were locked up, and all the bad ones were non-tendered.  John Buck might have been a comparable, but the Royals cut him loose before he could go to arbitration a third time.  The only catcher we found who recently went to arbitration a third time was the Tigers' Gerald Laird.  Laird's offensive stats after the '09 season paled in comparision to Napoli's current body of work, so we need to look elsewhere.

If an agent and team are forced to go to an arbitration hearing over a player's salary, the statistics used to make arguments are simple.  For Napoli it might be his .251 batting average, 92 home runs, 249 RBIs, and 246 runs.  He's heading to arbitration for the third time.  He has four years and 151 days of service and will be building off his 2010 salary of $3.6MM.

A baseball source gave me two comparables he thought Napoli's agent Brian Grieper might be able to use: Jorge Cantu after '09 and Xavier Nady after '08.  The criteria for an arbitration comparison talks about service levels, but not positions.  It's already been proven that catchers get extra credit in arbitration for being catchers – in his first year of arbitration, Russell Martin got $3.9MM.  You might expect that salary for a 30 home run, 100 RBI player, not a 13 home run, 69 RBI guy like Martin.  Napoli himself got $2MM in his first arbitration year coming off a season in which he played 78 games.

So even though Napoli falls short of Cantu and Nady in most basic offensive categories, they're workable comparables given the lack of similar catchers.  Napoli has a half-season of playing first base on his resume, so that might strengthen the comparison.  Cantu went from $3.5MM to $6MM, while Nady went from $3.35MM to $6.55MM.  Their raises were between $2.5-3.2MM, or 71-96%.  Napoli's agent might be able to argue for a $6-7MM salary for 2011, unless the Angels find more similar players who were paid less.

Could Napoli be non-tendered by the Angels this winter? One baseball source agreed with my estimate of a 10% chance, while another put it below 5%.  We all agreed Napoli is more likely to be traded than cut loose, though one of them remarked, "I think if they are stuck with him they will wish they would have non-tendered him."  The Angels won't be desperate – they can afford Napoli if no one wants him, but they should be able to find a taker for a 26 home run catcher even if his defense is poorly-regarded.  Keep in mind that even though Napoli is technically under team control through 2012, his 2011 salary could make him a likely non-tender.

Adam Dunn: Type B Free Agent?

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As I mentioned earlier, Eddie Bajek's reverse-engineered Elias rankings are subject to change if we find errors.  However, the current end-of-season iteration presents an interesting possibility: Adam Dunn may be a Type B free agent.

We have Dunn at 74.166 points in the NL 1B/OF group, tied with Derrek Lee and just shy of Angel Pagan's 74.353 Type A status.  If Dunn is a Type B, here are the implications:

  • The Nationals would only be able to receive one compensation pick for losing Dunn, not two.  This would make the decision not to trade Dunn in July look worse, and could serve as extra motivation to extend him.
  • The Nationals might be more inclined to offer Dunn arbitration if he's a Type B rather than A.  Dunn's agent at Legacy Sports knows that his client's market will improve if he's a Type B, since the signing team would not have to surrender a draft pick.  An increase in Dunn's free agent stock makes him more likely to decline an arbitration offer from the Nationals in search of a multiyear deal.  The Nationals, knowing Dunn is less likely to accept as a B, might be more likely to offer him arbitration.
  • The market for Dunn will improve.  For example: at #19, the Tigers have the best unprotected draft pick for 2011.  If Dunn is a Type B who turned down an arbitration offer, they can sign him without giving up that prized pick or any others.

2009-10 Reverse-Engineered Elias Rankings

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Once the regular season ended, the Elias Sports Bureau took all players over the 2009-10 period, divided them into five groups for each league, and ranked them based on various statistics.  Each player was labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).

Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  Here's a look at his 2009-10 projections, to tide you over until the official ones come out from Elias.  There are a lot of moving parts in reverse-engineering the Elias rankings, so these are subject to change if we find errors.  Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed during the season's final week.

Moore, Meredith, Castillo, Aubrey Elect Free Agency

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Orioles players Scott Moore, Cla Meredith, Alberto Castillo, and Michael Aubrey elected free agency, tweets MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli.  They appear to be minor league free agents, having finished the season at Triple A and off the 40-man roster.

Moore, 27 in November, hit .209/.274/.337 in 96 plate appearances for the Orioles this year, playing mostly second base.  He joined the Orioles in August of '07 in the Steve Trachsel deal with the Cubs.  Moore was designated for assignment in '09 and '10, clearing waivers both times.  He hit .280/.345/.476 at Triple A this year while playing mainly third base.

Meredith, 27, tallied 15 relief innings for the Orioles this year with a 5.40 ERA, 4.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and four home runs allowed.  The sidearmer racks up groundballs and handles righties well on his best days.  The Orioles acquired him from the Padres for Oscar Salazar in July of last year.  He was designated for assignment and cleared waivers in June.

Castillo, 35, whiffed 11 but allowed five homers and 12 earned runs in his 10.6 inning stint with the O's this year.  He was designated for assignment in June to clear a 40-man spot for Jake Arrieta.  Castillo's work in Triple A: a 4.54 ERA, 9.8 K/9, and 3.4 BB/9 in 39.6 innings.  He was done in by 46 hits allowed.  His previous work in Triple A was more encouraging.

Aubrey, 28, was drafted 11th overall by the Indians in 2003.  It appeared that he might get a shot at first base for the Orioles heading into this season, but they signed Garrett Atkins and ended up designating Aubrey on April 1st.  He spent the season at Triple A, hitting .235/.310/.495 with 22 home runs in 419 plate appearances.

Cardinals Notes: La Russa, Pujols, Payroll

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In an afternoon meeting yesterday, the Cardinals made an offer to Tony La Russa to manage the team in 2011, according to MLB.com's Matthew Leach and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold.  Leach quotes GM John Mozeliak saying that he hopes to have a resolution within seven to ten days.  La Russa indicated he would not manage another team next year, but would not rule out working for another team in a different capacity.  But in the opinion of Goold, "All indications are pointing toward La Russa's return, from the All-Stars the Cardinals have coming back to the recent comments he's made about the team in 2011."

Perhaps of more interest to us hot stove junkies is Joe Strauss' take on the offseason in a separate piece.  Strauss notes that the team has a small arbitration class (first-timers Kyle McClellan and Brendan Ryan) but almost $80MM committed to nine players.  Among those nine is Albert Pujols, whose $16MM club option is a formality.  Extension talks are expected to occur after the La Russa situation is resolved.  The team's $94MM payroll appears to be on the rise, though retaining Jake Westbrook might compel the team to fill other holes internally and cheaply in Strauss' opinion.  Strauss explains the team's needs:

The Cardinals go forward seeking a backup catcher, a lefthanded reliever, an upgrade at either second base or shortstop, a safety net at third base, heft for the bench and possibly a right fielder.

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