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21 Free Agents Who May Cost A Draft Pick To Sign

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Only one week remains for the Elias Ranking landscape to be altered.  Many players appear locked in as Type A free agents.  If a Type A free agent turns down an arbitration offer from his old club, his new team has to surrender a draft pick as compensation.  MLBTR identified 21 Type As who could be offered arbitration.  The ultimate number on November 23rd will be smaller, but these are the candidates.  The player's specific number can be important, in cases where a team signs multiple Type As who turned down arbitration. 

  • Jayson Werth – 92.118.  Werth will almost certainly be offered arbitration and will turn it down.  It will not matter if his new team signs multiple Type As who turned down arbitration – the Phillies will receive that team's best available draft pick.  At this time the best pick any team can hope for is the Tigers' 19th overall choice.
  • Rafael Soriano – 91.522.  The Rays might prefer a cheaper closing option in 2011, but Soriano is very likely to turn down an arbitration offer this time around.
  • Victor Martinez – 87.946.  He's looking for more than two years, so he won't be accepting arbitration.
  • Cliff Lee – 87.547.  Could a team sign Lee as well as Martinez, Soriano, or Werth?  That'd be the Rangers' least-preferred scenario, assuming they don't re-sign Lee.
  • Carl Crawford – 83.718.  Crawford is another lock to be offered and turn down arbitration, and the Rays have to hope he's not signed by a team that also signs one of the four players ranked above him.
  • Adrian Beltre – 80.714.  Remember when Scott Boras' free agent crop didn't look that great?  He's got Werth and Beltre; will he add Yu Darvish?
  • Vladimir Guerrero – 80.000.  The Rangers have a $9MM mutual option with Vlad.  These are rarely exercised by both sides, though it is possible. 
  • Paul Konerko – 77.143.  Despite his monster season an arbitration for Konerko is no sure thing.  Through arbitration he could get a raise on this year's $12MM salary, and the White Sox might not want to risk that.
  • Carl Pavano – 76.217.  Pavano figures to seek out a multiyear deal.  If he finds that elsewhere, a draft pick will be the added cost.
  • Jorge de la Rosa – 76.144.  De La Rosa also seems likely to turn down arbitration in search of multiple years.
  • Matt Guerrier – 75.978.  The Type A relievers are anyone's guess.  All of these guys know they're best served if an arbitration offer does not come.
  • Scott Downs – 75.145.  The reported July asking price for Downs from the Blue Jays implied they're dead set on offering him arbitration.
  • Adam Dunn – 75.000.  I don't see Dunn accepting an offer from the Nationals – he'll want multiyear security.  With so many Type As ranked higher, the Nationals could receive a second, third, or fourth-round pick as one of the two.
  • Ramon Hernandez – 74.903.  The Reds hold the leverage here.  They know that if they offer arbitration they can have Hernandez back on a one-year deal or else stick him with the draft pick stink.
  • Dan Wheeler – 73.696.  How likely is it for a player to have his option declined and then be offered arbitration?  The Rays did it with Gregg Zaun last year, resulting in supplemental first round pick Drew Vettleson.
  • Frank Francisco – 73.551.  For many of these relievers, both the team and the player probably would have preferred Type B status.
  • Jason Frasor – 73.442.
  • Takashi Saito – 72.310.
  • Arthur Rhodes – 72.217.
  • Grant Balfour – 72.029.
  • Pedro Feliciano – 70.213.
  • There are other projected Type As, including Bronson Arroyo and Ted Lilly, but the players listed above I find more likely to receive arbitration offers.

Elias Rankings Update

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After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics.  Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none.  Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).

Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through September 26th, 2010.  Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed.

Poll: Will The Brewers Trade Prince Fielder

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Prince Fielder's just 26 years old, but he already has 192 homers to his name. He's leading the National League in walks this year, and though his power numbers aren't as impressive as usual, he's now fifth in the league with 32 homers.

Next year, Fielder's last before hitting free agency, he will earn a raise from his current $10.5MM salary, so he's not exactly a bargain. Technically it's possible that the Brewers work out an extension with Fielder and agent Scott Boras, but lots of people, including Ryan Braun, expect the Brewers to trade their first baseman this offseason.

They could use starting pitching and Fielder could help them acquire a controllable arm or two. But Prince may not have quite as much trade value as you might think, so it's not as simple as plucking the top young pitchers from opponents' depth charts. What do you think GM Doug Melvin will do with his first baseman? 

Will the Brewers trade Fielder this offseason?

Click here to vote and here to view the results.

Angels Don’t Face Financial Limitations

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The Angels will be in the red this year, but that won’t stop them from spending. As they head toward their first losing season since 2003, it’s becoming apparent that the Angels will lose about $10MM this year, a baseball source told Mark Saxon of ESPNLos Angeles.com. 

But Angels fans can still dream about a 2011 outfield that includes Carl Crawford. Multiple sources tell Saxon that the organization plans to push aggressively to sign the left fielder when he hits free agency after the season. Speaking in general terms, GM Tony Reagins said the team will be able to spend this offseason.

"You always have to take account of how the finances work, but we're not limited financially in any way," Reagins said. "Whatever we need to do that makes sense and that's reasonable, we'll address."

Crawford, Adrian Beltre and Jayson Werth are among the top free agent position players who could draw interest from the Angels. The team’s rotation appears to be set, but the club will likely pursue relievers and consider trading Mike Napoli at some point this winter.

Odds & Ends: Papelbon, Yankees, Pujols, Webb

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Links for Monday, as Roy Halladay attempts to lead the Phillies to another division title…

Ozzie Guillen To Manage White Sox In 2011

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White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, who is under contract for 2011, told Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times that he'll be "with the White Sox next season" and that he wants to return (Twitter links). There has been uncertainty around Guillen, partly because of the many upcoming managerial vacancies and partly because he appeared to want more job security.

The Marlins, in particular, seemed like a potential fit, but Guillen isn't going anywhere soon. GM Kenny Williams says he won't allow rival teams to interview Guillen for potential jobs. The 46-year-old is now in his seventh season as White Sox manager and has a regular season record of 595-533. Guillen, who led the team to a World Weries title in 2005, steered Chicago back into contention this year after a poor start to the season.

Remembering The 1983 Trade Deadline

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Ah, the sweet summer of 1983. Sally Ride became the first woman in space. Vanessa Williams was named Miss America. And a little something called the Nintendo Entertainment System went on sale in Japan.

Meanwhile, our national pastime saw the gears turn as spring turned into summer, then fall (as is the custom). A number of fascinating trades dotted the baseball landscape, and in some cases, helped turn pennant races.

The first major deal did not, however. On June 15, the Cardinals traded Keith Hernandez to the Mets for Neil Allen and Rick Ownbey. The trade is, in many ways, the original sin of overpaying for a closer. Allen had been solid in relief for the Mets, with Ownbey a live arm, but neither one provided much value. Allen posted an ERA well over 4.00 in the remainder of his career, while Ownbey pitched in parts of two seasons with St. Louis.

And Hernandez? After the trade he won six Gold Gloves, a World Series, hit .297/.387/.429 as a Met, and kissed Elaine Benes (no relation to Andy or Alan). In other words: trading two middling arms for the 29-year-old star first baseman? Always a good move. Neither team figured in the postseason races, however.

Though the Astros fell six games short in the NL West, one of my favorite deals came from Houston on August 10: a swap of offensively-challenged speedster Omar Moreno to the Yankees for Jerry Mumphrey, who did everything Moreno did, except much better.

At the time of the deal, both were struggling. Moreno was hitting .242, Mumphrey .262. But batting averages are where the similarities ended between the two players. Moreno had no power, hardly ever walked, and had a career OPS+ of 79 to show for it. Mumphrey had some power and plate discipline, and his career OPS+ of 108 reflected that as well.

But after the trade, while Moreno continued as the player he was, Mumphrey had two months of Ty Cobb-style production, hitting .336/.425/.455 for the Astros. What can I say? I like seeing teams rewarded for making smart moves.

On August 19, two pitchers who went on to become teammates for the elite Oakland teams of the late 80s were traded for each other without the Athletics involved. The Dodgers dealt Dave Stewart, Ricky Wright and $200K to the Rangers for Rick Honeycutt.

If you are my age (30), you think of Honeycutt as a reliever, but he had quite a bit of success as a starter. His 2.42 ERA led the American League in 1983 (though he switched leagues, only his AL starts counted toward the AL ERA title), and his 2.84 ERA ranked sixth in the National League in 1984.

Stewart, meanwhile, appeared to be making the leap to elite pitcher in 1983. He pitched to a 2.96 ERA with the Dodgers before the trade, and a 2.14 ERA with the Rangers after the trade. Entering his age-27 season in 1984, the future seemed bright. But a 4.73 ERA in 1984, followed by 5.46 ERA in 1985 led the Rangers to trade Stewart for Rich Surhoff (of the B.J. Surhoff Surhoffs) and the Phillies to then release him. Needless to say, that turned out to be a mistake when Oakland picked him up in May 1986.

Honeycutt's path to Oakland was more direct- the Dodgers traded him to Oakland in August 1987 for Tim Belcher.

But we digress- back to 1983! On August 29, the Atlanta Braves dramatically overpaid for strikeout pitcher Len Barker. He'd led the American League in strikeouts in 1980 and 1981, but by 1983 the 27-year-old Barker's ERA was rising while his strikeout rate was dropping- a bad time to deal for a pitcher. But Atlanta, chasing the Dodgers, gave up Brett Butler, Brook Jacoby, Rick Behenna and $150K to get Barker.

While Barker pitched reasonably well – a 3.82 ERA in six starts for the Braves – Butler went on to record another 2,137 hits after leaving the Braves, with an OPS+ of 113. Jacoby's success was not as long-lasting, but he had his moments, many of them occurring in 1987 during his .300/.387/.541 campaign. Amazingly, during that season, Jacoby had 32 home runs, but just 69 RBI to show for it, thanks to a .221/.362/.295 line with runners in scoring position.

And yet? It was still too much to give up for Barker, who by 1987, was in his final season.

Izturis “Definitely” Wants To Return To Baltimore

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The Orioles haven’t won more than 64 games since Cesar Izturis signed with Baltimore two winters ago, but he’d still like to return in 2011 if the Orioles are interested in re-signing him.

“Definitely, definitely,” Izturis told MLBTR this weekend. “It’s been good here the last two years and they’ve treated me well so far and I’m going to be here if they want me. If they want me, I’ll be here. If not, I want to play every day.”

Earlier in the season, Izturis told Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun that the Orioles are his first choice and that hasn’t changed, especially since the team is winning under new manager Buck Showalter.

“We have turned around completely,” Izturis said. “The numbers are up there, more wins and we’re playing much better for him.”

The team is better, but Izturis has had a disappointing year at the plate and he knows it. The switch hitter is batting .236/.280/.273 this season with 11 stolen bases (16 attempts). Izturis has played basically every day for the O’s and his defense has been good, according to UZR. The defensive metric ranks Izturis as an above-average fielder and has for eight of the last nine seasons.

Izturis now earns $2.6MM in the second season of his two-year $5MM deal. He doesn’t figure to sign for as much guaranteed money this offseason, but light-hitting, sure-handed shortstops can find major league deals. Adam Everett signed for $1.55MM last winter, though the Tigers ultimately released him.

Arbitration Eligibles: Oakland Athletics

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The Athletics are next in our arbitration-eligible series.  Their candidates:

Hermida and Jackson, once top prospects, are now locks to be non-tendered.  In a poll earlier this month, 71% of you predicted that Jackson will be cut.  MLBTR readers also voted on Kouzmanoff, with 38% expecting a non-tender.  Mark me down for a non-tender vote on the third baseman.  It appears that Buck received the service time needed for Super Two status.  He had a decent year at Triple A, but he's still a likely non-tender.  I imagine Bonser will be non-tendered for the flexibility, even if the A's want him around for next year.  Gross should round up the team's sizeable list of December cuts.

Breslow and Braden are locks to be tendered contracts.  Sweeney had season-ending knee surgery in July, but I expect the A's to retain him.  Davis has been disappointing, but he wouldn't get much of a raise.  Devine missed the entire season with lingering elbow concerns, but he could be kept again for less than $1MM.

Due in part to a career-best .271 batting average, Cust has an OBP near .400 this year.  Last time around the A's non-tendered Cust, re-signed him, and designated him for assignment in April.  I'll guess he's non-tendered again.

The A's have to decide on a dozen arbitration-eligible players, but the salaries of those tendered contracts will be modest.

Rosenthal On Red Sox, Yankees, Garza

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The Red Sox will "explore their options" with Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez, and David Ortiz, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  They're also "already checking into" Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, possibly with the idea of moving Jacoby Ellsbury back to center field and making Mike Cameron a pricey fourth outfielder.  Rosenthal's other musings…

  • Rosenthal's quick math suggests the Yankees would have to stay out of the Crawford/Werth derby – barring a payroll increase –  if they sign Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, and Cliff Lee.
  • Rosenthal finds the offseason trade market for starting pitching unimpressive.  Though Matt Garza is "drawing long looks" from other teams, the Rays are more likely to trade a starter after the 2011 season.  As for Royals ace Zack Greinke, the team might be inclined to let him rebuild value in the first half.  Earlier this month, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith named five other starters who might be available this winter.
  • John Hart, Stan Kasten, or Sandy Alderson could be a fit for the Mets if they look to add an experienced executive above Omar Minaya, speculates Rosenthal.  Rosenthal's source does not see Kasten replacing Bob Dupuy as baseball's second in command.
  • Felipe Lopez wouldn't net the Red Sox a draft pick if his next deal is of the minor league variety, notes Rosenthal.

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