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Odds & Ends: Hart, Cox, Giambi, Pierzynski

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Links for Tuesday night, as the Rays, Yankees and Reds clinch playoff berths…

Scot Shields Likely To Retire

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Scot Shields, who was a durable, sometimes dominant weapon in Mike Scioscia’s bullpen for the last decade, told Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times that he’s “probably” going to retire after the season. He realizes the Angels have younger options and would like to spend more time with his family.

"On the personal side, your family comes first, and I've missed too much of my life with them. It might be time to go home," Shields said.

Shields missed most of the season’s last month with a sore elbow and his season ERA is now 5.28. The 35-year-old right-hander can still strike opponents out (7.6 K/9), but he walks too many batters (6.7 BB/9). This was Shields’ second consecutive disappointing season; he struggled last year before undergoing knee surgery.

At his best, Shields defined the Angels bullpen (along with Francisco Rodriguez and, for a while, Troy Percival). He averaged 85 innings per season from 2004-08 with more than a strikeout per inning and a 3.11 ERA in that five-year stretch.

Five 2009 Deals That Shaped The 2010 Pennant Race

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When we look back at the 2009 trade deadline, the deals that come to mind first are the ones that shaped the remainder of that season. After all, Victor Martinez, Matt Holliday and Cliff Lee led their new teams to the postseason a year ago. But some of last year's deadline deals had a major impact on this year's pennant race. Here's a closer look at five of them:

  • Reds acquire Scott Rolen – Rolen has played excellent defense in Cincinnati this year, adding 20 homers and batting .288/.361/.504.
  • White Sox acquire Jake Peavy for Clayton Richard and others – Here's a question for you: where would the Padres be without nearly 200 innings of 3.71 ERA ball from Richard? I'm guessing they'd be more than 0.5 games out of a playoff berth if Kevin Towers hadn't pulled the trigger on the Peavy deal. Keep in mind that Heath Bell and Adrian Gonzalez both stayed put last summer despite considerable interest from other teams.
  • Giants acquire Freddy Sanchez – The Giants didn't make the playoffs last year, but they signed Sanchez to an extension soon after the season ended. He hit .296/.345/.403 this year when shoulder problems didn't keep him out of the lineup. GM Brian Sabean was hoping the former batting champ would lead the Giants to the postseason last year, but Sanchez has helped his team in the uncomfortably close NL West this year.
  • Blue Jays keep Roy Halladay – Does Roy Halladay end up on the 2010 Phillies if the Blue Jays trade him last summer? It's possible, but lots of other teams had interest in Halladay, too.
  • Phillies acquire Cliff Lee – Not only did Lee help the Phillies reach the World Series, last summer's trade set in motion the sequence of events that led Lee to Texas, where he helped the Rangers win the AL West.

5 Minor League Deals That Shaped The Pennant Race

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Most MLBTR readers said R.A. Dickey was the best minor league signing of the year when we voted earlier in the month, but the Mets fell out of contention long ago, so Dickey didn't have much of an impact on this year's pennant race. The five minor league deals below had lasting effects on the 2010 pennant race:

  • Rays sign Joaquin Benoit – The reliever has a 1.39 ERA in 61 games with 11.1 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Amazingly, Benoit has allowed just 28 hits in 58.1 innings.
  • Reds sign Miguel Cairo – There are bigger stars on the Reds, but Cairo has batted .289/.352/.411 and played all four infield positions. Cincinnati GM Walt Jocketty deserves credit for this find.
  • Yankees sign Marcus Thames – Thames has hit .287/.352/.500 this year with 12 homers in 227 plate appearances.
  • Giants sign Pat Burrell – GM Brian Sabean bought low on Burrell, who has responded with 17 homers and an .869 OPS in San Francisco. Burrell is playing the way he did in 2008 and without that kind of production, the Giants probably wouldn't be leading the NL West.
  • Padres sign Chris Denorfia – Denorfia has hit .264/.332/.435 in 302 plate appearances for the Padres, who have seen outfielders Tony Gwynn and Kyle Blanks miss significant time with injuries.

Five Non-Tenders That Shaped The 2010 Pennant Race

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Some non-tendered players end up performing like stars in new cities, but the best contract offer possible is sometimes the one a team doesn't make. Here's a look at five players who were non-tendered last year and impacted the 2010 pennant race:

  • Matt Capps – Capps has been excellent in 24 appearances for the Twins since coming over in a deal that sent catching prospect Wilson Ramos to Washington. The Pirates non-tendered Capps last December and the Twins and Nationals profit because of Pittsburgh's decision.
  • Dustin Moseley – Hey, he's pitched 60.1 innings for one of the best teams in baseball and even stepped into a starting role when Andy Pettitte went down. The Angels’ decision to non-tender Moseley isn’t necessarily one they would like to do over, but the swingman has added value for the Bronx Bombers, posting a 4.77 ERA so far.
  • Jonny Gomes – The Reds non-tendered Gomes only to re-sign him later in the offseason. The left fielder has a .761 OPS and 17 homers for the playoff-bound Reds.
  • Garrett Atkins – The Rockies guaranteed the combination of Melvin Mora, Jason Giambi and Miguel Olivo less than it would have cost to retain Atkins through arbitration. Instead of paying Atkins more than $7MM, GM Dan O'Dowd wisely non-tendered him and spent on other needs.
  • Kelly Johnson – Omar Infante and Martin Prado have produced well, so the decision to non-tender Johnson didn't necessarily hurt the Braves. Still, we can say with confidence that this year's Braves team would have seemed much different with more of Johnson (25 homers and .860 OPS in Arizona) and less of Prado and Infante.

Arbitration Eligibles: Texas Rangers

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Let's round out the American League side of our arbitration eligibles series with a look at the Rangers.

Locks to be tendered contracts: Cruz, Murphy, O'Day, Hamilton, Lowe, and Wilson.  There will be sizeable raises in this bunch.  Cruz has 55 home runs over the last two seasons, Hamilton had an MVP season, O'Day has been quietly dominant, and Wilson and Murphy are also coming off their best years.  Lowe had back surgery in June and might not pitch for the Rangers this year, but they acquired him with that knowledge and clearly want him for 2011.

Nippert has slipped since last year, but the raise he gets on this year's $665K could be small.  McCarthy tossed 56.3 minor league innings this year, dealing with shoulder issues.  He's a non-tender candidate given his $1.3MM salary.  Likewise for Jeff Francoeur at $5MM, even with 42 stellar Rangers plate appearances added to his resume.  German, a role player, will probably be cut.

Odds & Ends: Beltre, Athletics, Gibson

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Links for Tuesday, as David Price tries to clinch a playoff berth for the Rays a day after tweeting that last night's attendance was embarrassing…

Arbitration Eligibles: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners are next in our arbitration eligibles series.

Vargas, Aardsma, and League are locks to be tendered contracts for 2011.  Aardsma's second-consecutive 30-save season should result in a nice raise, and the Mariners might feel compelled to trade him.

Kotchman will be cut, as will Lopez after his option is declined.  Langerhans also figures to be non-tendered, but like last year he could be re-signed to a minor league deal.

First timers Wilson and Rowland-Smith have statistics ugly enough to keep their arbitration rewards low.  Wilson might be retained for his defensive skills, Rowland-Smith for his previous promise.  White might still be in jeopardy.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Justin Duchscherer

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The Athletics' last offseason was a risky one, with the team committing over $17MM to Ben Sheets, Coco Crisp, and Justin Duchscherer despite the trio barely playing in 2009.  Duchscherer was the least risky of the bunch in that the A's only guaranteed him $1.75MM.  The move did not pay off, as Duchscherer provided only 28 innings before undergoing season-ending hip surgery in June. 

Duchscherer told MLB.com's Jane Lee he's open to returning to the A's, but let's take a look at his situation as he heads to free agency again.

The Pros

  • Duchscherer told Lee, "When I'm healthy, I've always proven that I can pitch."  The 32-year-old righty made only 27 starts from 2008-10, but he posted a 2.60 ERA in those 169.6 innings.
  • The price will be right – after two lost seasons in a row, Duchscherer should be looking at a smaller guarantee or even a minor league deal this offseason.
  • Both of Duchscherer's hips and his pitching elbow have already been fixed, so as he says, "I can't imagine what else could go wrong."

The Cons

The Verdict

Duchscherer will still find a big league deal, but his base salary will be closer to $1MM this time.  A few weeks ago, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith listed 14 teams that might be interested in this type of starter during the offseason.

Nationals Unlikely To Re-Sign Dunn?

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The Nationals are unlikely to re-sign slugger Adam Dunn, according to MASN's Ben Goessling.  Goessling's sources say GM Mike Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman find Dunn's defense untenable, and the team will seek a better defensive first baseman like Carlos Pena.  Goessling also hears that outfielder Jayson Werth "could be a possibility" for the Nationals this offseason.    

On September 19th, Dunn told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that extension talks "have picked back up."  At that time Dunn expected to reach free agency in November, but still re-sign with Washington.

Dunn is known to be seeking four years but would be open to three with the Nationals.  Goessling expects the Nats to offer arbitration to the Type A free agent.  If they do, Dunn will have to decide whether to accept on November 30th.  As I mentioned earlier today, Dunn's low Elias number (projected at 75.000 currently) increases the chances of the Nationals failing to snag a first-round pick as part of the compensation.

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